evacuation time estimates - nucleus

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June 2014

EVACUATION TIME

ESTIMATES

RICHARD EMCH, ADSTM

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Objectives

• Understanding of the approach to developing evacuation

time estimates

• Study example of how evacuation time estimates were

developed for one US nuclear power plant

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Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE)

• Perform calculations using generally accepted computer

model

• Integrated assessment with multiple inputs

• Numerical estimates not main purpose: No minimum

required evacuation time

• Determine whether physical barriers pose impediments

to evacuation

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Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE)

• USNRC NUREG/CR-6863 “Development of Evacuation

Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants,” (December 2004)

• No USNRC criteria for acceptable ETE

• Typical estimates: 3 hours for good conditions

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Key Factors

• Permanent, transient, special populations

• Road networks, nodes, congestion points

• Mass transit, persons without vehicles

• Preparation and assembly time estimates

• Adverse behaviors

• Adverse weather and special events

• Physical barriers

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Analysis

• Demand Estimation

• Traffic Capacity

• Trip Generation Time

• Evacuation Scenarios

• Analysis Results

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Demand Estimation

• Estimate the number of people to be evacuated

• Estimate the number of vehicles during evacuation

• Include all persons located within EPZ

• Permanent residents

• Seasonal population

• Transient population

• Special facilities population

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Demand Estimation

• Permanent Residents

• All people living in the area (excludes institutions)

• People with automobiles / people depending on public

transport

• Transient Population

• Visitors, tourists, shoppers

• Employees not residing in the area

• College students

• Special Facilities

• Schools and day care centers

• Hospitals and nursing homes

• Prisons

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Demand Estimation

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Demand Estimation

• Pay attention to double-counting

Minor double-counting since it is not likely to change

outcome

• Too conservative estimates can be damaging

• Assumptions on number persons/vehicle

• Consider undesired effects

Shadow (voluntary) evacuation

Background traffic

Returning commuters

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Traffic Capacity

• Major factor in ETEs

• Road capacity may be impacted by

Obstructions in flow (road repair, accidents)

Adverse weather

Roadway design (intersections, on-ramps, lane width,

pavement)

Driver behavior

• Build models build to simulate traffic behavior, validate

through field surveys

• Include only the evacuation routes

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Trip Generation Time

• Total time required by individual or family to prepare for evacuation

• Can be obtained through surveys

• Assumptions or generalized data are also acceptable, but basis

must be provided

• Can assume sequential events or distribution functions

• Identify sensitive parameters/conditions of large impact on the trip

generation time

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Evacuation Scenarios

• Normal/adverse weather

• Various seasons (winter / summer)

• Time of the day

• Day of the week

• Special events

• Various evacuation sectors (by wind direction)

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Analysis

• Report ETEs as a function of:

Evacuation areas

Evacuation scenario

General public / special populations

ETEs to evacuate 100% of population, as well as 90%,

50%, etc.

• Sensitivity analysis to asses the impact of the assumptions

• Update ETE if information changes significantly

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EXAMPLE

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Turkey Point ETE Analysis

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(11x12 = 132 ETEs)

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evacuation time estimates - nucleus

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