europe’s base oil prices revved their engines in 2017 ... · mar 2017 jul 2017 sep 2017 nov 2017...
TRANSCRIPT
ULSAN
DUMAI
CARTAGENA
YAROSLAVL OMSK
PORTOSPAIN
RUSSIA
PORTUGALSOUTH KOREA
mid-Mar 2018
mid-Jul 2018
Feb 2018Feb 2018
early Sep 2018
Apr 2018
end Jun 2018
early Aug 2018
Mar 2018end Mar-early Apr 2018
mid-Oct 2018
May 2018
38500 bblday
9000 bblday
300000 tonnesyear100000 tonnes
year (GIII)
630000 tonnesyear
185000 tonnesyear
Scheduled maintenance
Scheduled maintenance
Scheduled maintenanceScheduled
maintenance
Scheduled maintenance
Scheduled maintenance
Indonesia
KEY REFINERY OUTAGES IN 2017
EUROPErsquoS BASE OIL PRICES REVVED THEIR ENGINES IN 2017 WILL UPWARD PRESSURE CONTINUE IN 2018
QATAR
ULSANCARTAGENA
LIVORNO
SPAINITALY
SOUTH KOREAFeb 2017
May 2017
Jun 2017
mid-Oct 2017
Mar 2017
Jun 2017
Jul 2017
630000 tonnesyear
630000 tonnesyear
38500 bblday
Force majeure declared amid flooding in Livorno Site closed to fix
18 gasifier units Ramped up production from end March onwards
Scheduled maintenance
Scheduled maintenance
mid-Sep 2017
SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE IN 2018
Refinery outages supported the price of base oils in 2017 With expected maintenance in 2018 this infographic looks ahead to determine whether the trend will continue
Will the presence of Shellrsquos GTL plant in Qatar result in a more balanced year for the base oils markets
Group III
Group III
Group IIIII
Group III+
Shutdown date
Capacity Reason
Estimated restart date
Group III
Group III
Group III
Group IIIII
Group I
Shutdown date
Capacity Reason
Estimated restart date
Group IIII
Refinery maintenance season
USDtonne
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017Mar 2017
Brightstock FOB Europe Export
SN500 FOB Europe Export
SN150 FOB Europe Export
Gasoil Low-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam
Gasoil High-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam
Group III 6 cSt FCA ARA Domestic Truck
EURtonne
675
700
725
750
775
800
825
Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017May 2017Mar 2017
Plant outage
Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Crude Oil Price Average Group III Prices
+23
~$56bbl ~$69bbl
BFOE FOB UKNorway
Europe Group I Export Prices
PRICE MOVES AND KEY PRESSURE POINTS
FIND OUT HOW ICIS CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY TODAY
PRICE REPORTSOur independent price reports provide objective and trusted intelligence for the base oil markets
Receive updates and information on reliable price assessments and analyses
Compare price histories and view comprehensive commentaries on the changing trade patterns and trends
Understand the key price drivers and market conditions and settle your contract prices more confidently
PARAFFIN WAX MARKETWe provide regional coverage of paraffin wax markets in Asia Europe and the US
Understand price drivers and fluctuations
Develop internal analytical models
Inform settlements and contracts and negotiate with confidence
VICKY ELLIS MARKETS EDITOR
Vicky Ellis is a markets editor at ICIS covering European markets for base oils methanol fuel and industrial ethanol Her previous newsroom experience writing about the energy industry took her to power stations German coalmines and even down Londonrsquos sewers It also saw her host webinars and conferences for the B2B energy market
SARAH TRINDERSENIOR EDITOR
MANAGER
Sarah Trinder has worked at ICIS for over seven years covering a range of markets including base oils paraffin wax shipping biofuels glycerine and jet fuel among others She has been covering the base oils market for nearly three years now with particular focus on the export markets
WEEKLY ATLANTIC BASIN FEEDSTOCKS REPORTCovering Europe and the US receive numerous price assessments including
Updates on crude naphtha gasoline ethane propane butane LPG NGL VGO fuel oil and cracked fuel
Expert commentary on price movements refinery news demand patterns and economic or political updates impacting the market
KEY QUESTIONS FOR 2018
Will scheduled maintenance at key refineries bring tighter base oil supply Will crude oil and vacuum gasoil feedstock fluctuations outweigh market fundamentals How will the completion of the ExxonMobil Rotterdam GII plant disrupt GIGIII markets What lies in store for spread between GIII approved and unapproved product
Refinery maintenance season
USDtonne
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017Mar 2017
Brightstock FOB Europe Export
SN500 FOB Europe Export
SN150 FOB Europe Export
Gasoil Low-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam
Gasoil High-Sulphur Vacuum FOB Rotterdam
Group III 6 cSt FCA ARA Domestic Truck
EURtonne
675
700
725
750
775
800
825
Jan 2018Nov 2017Sep 2017Jul 2017May 2017Mar 2017
Plant outage
Jan 2017 Jan 2018
Crude Oil Price Average Group III Prices
+23
~$56bbl ~$69bbl
BFOE FOB UKNorway
Europe Group I Export Prices
PRICE MOVES AND KEY PRESSURE POINTS
FIND OUT HOW ICIS CAN HELP YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY TODAY
PRICE REPORTSOur independent price reports provide objective and trusted intelligence for the base oil markets
Receive updates and information on reliable price assessments and analyses
Compare price histories and view comprehensive commentaries on the changing trade patterns and trends
Understand the key price drivers and market conditions and settle your contract prices more confidently
PARAFFIN WAX MARKETWe provide regional coverage of paraffin wax markets in Asia Europe and the US
Understand price drivers and fluctuations
Develop internal analytical models
Inform settlements and contracts and negotiate with confidence
VICKY ELLIS MARKETS EDITOR
Vicky Ellis is a markets editor at ICIS covering European markets for base oils methanol fuel and industrial ethanol Her previous newsroom experience writing about the energy industry took her to power stations German coalmines and even down Londonrsquos sewers It also saw her host webinars and conferences for the B2B energy market
SARAH TRINDERSENIOR EDITOR
MANAGER
Sarah Trinder has worked at ICIS for over seven years covering a range of markets including base oils paraffin wax shipping biofuels glycerine and jet fuel among others She has been covering the base oils market for nearly three years now with particular focus on the export markets
WEEKLY ATLANTIC BASIN FEEDSTOCKS REPORTCovering Europe and the US receive numerous price assessments including
Updates on crude naphtha gasoline ethane propane butane LPG NGL VGO fuel oil and cracked fuel
Expert commentary on price movements refinery news demand patterns and economic or political updates impacting the market
KEY QUESTIONS FOR 2018
Will scheduled maintenance at key refineries bring tighter base oil supply Will crude oil and vacuum gasoil feedstock fluctuations outweigh market fundamentals How will the completion of the ExxonMobil Rotterdam GII plant disrupt GIGIII markets What lies in store for spread between GIII approved and unapproved product