europe’s agriculture in a changing climate part 3: travelling … · 2019-06-14 · boreal region...

www.climatechangepost.comLatestupdate:29March2019

Europe’sagriculture

inachangingclimatePart3:TravellingaroundEuropein31sheets

www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.com

ClimaticzonesforEurope’sagriculture

Boreal

AlpineAtlanticCentral

AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth

ContinentalNorthContinentalSouth

MediterraneanNorth

MediterraneanSouthNoinformation

Agroclimaticzones(Source:Iglesias,2012):


Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:IntheBorealregion,increasedtemperaturesmayincreaseboththecultivableareaandcropyieldswithintheentirezone,aswellasprovideopportunitiesforincreasedlivestockproduction.Alongergrowingseasonmayenablegrowingmoreheatdemandingspeciesandvarietiesofcrops.Thiscouldincreaseuseoflegumesandmoreproductiveperennialforagegrassesandpotentiallyincreasetheproductionofvegetablesandgrains.However,thesoiltypesinthiszonemaylimitthepotentialforincreasedagriculturalproduction.Inaddition,increasedrainfallmayleadtoincreasedwaterlogging,floodingriskandperhapsalsoadecreaseinwaterquality.Intheshorttermeconomicbenefitsofclimatechangemayoutweighdisadvantagesduetolongergrowingseasonsandincreasingplantproductivity.However,negativeimpactscouldgrowmoreseriousinthelongerterm.Theneedforirrigationwaterwillincrease.Stressarisingfromdrynessandheatduringthegrowingseasonmayincrease.Alsoanincreasedoccurrenceofpestsandweedsisexpectedtoincreasecroplosses.Productivityimprovementsinnortherncountriescouldreach40-50%bythe2080s.

Borealregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–outlines

Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth




Borealregion

Sources:Marttilaetal.(2005);Kentala-Lehtonen(2008);MinistryoftheEnvironmentofEstonia(2009)

Finland:

•  Thegrowingseasonisestimatedtobecomethreetofiveweekslongerby2050.Towardstheendofthecenturythegrowingseasonmaybeextendedbysome40days.

•  Animalhusbandrywillbenefitfromlongergrazingseasons(feedcosts,animalhealth).

•  Theareasuitableforthecultivationofcerealswillmovefarthernorth.VarietiesdevelopedformoresouthernconditionsareprobablynotsuitableforFinland.ThisisduetothequiteextraordinarylengthofdayinFinlandduringthegrowingseasonandthespecialrhythmofthegrowthrequiredforthevarietiesused,aswellasthetypesofsoil.ArablecropproductioninFinlandcanonlybebasedontheimprovementofvarietiesintendedparticularlyforlocalconditions.Climaticwarmingwillprobablyresultintheneedtoincreasetheuseofpesticidesandintroducemorepowerfulpesticides.

•  TheoverwinteringofplantsmaybehamperedinsouthernFinlandwhenthedepthofsnowdecreases.Thealternationbetweenmeltingandfreezingcausedbymildwintersismostharmfulfortheoverwinteringofplants;plantscansuffocatebeneaththeicecover.Theriskofspringfrostmayalsoincrease.

Estonia:Climatechangewillprobablyfavouragriculture,especiallygrasslandhusbandry.WithlengtheninggrowingseasonitwillbepossibletointroducenewcropspeciestoEstonia’sagriculture.ItwillbepossibletogrowspeciesmorecommoninCentralEurope.Agreaternumberofharvestswillbecomepossible.

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–details

Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth




Borealregion

Sources:SwedishCommissiononClimateandVulnerability(2007);MinistryfortheEnvironmentofIceland(2010)

Iceland:

Observations:GlobalwarminghasalreadyhadlargeimpactontraditionalagricultureinIceland:inthewarmerwinterclimateofthe2000‘sfrostdamagetohayfieldshaslargelydisappeared.Also,barleyproductionhasincreased,bothbecauseofresearchanddevelopmentwithinthecountryandthechangingclimate.Thechangeinclimatehasalsomadeitpossibletogrownewcrops,suchaswinterwheat,thatisnowgrowninthecountry‘swarmestareasinsouthernIceland.

Projections:Duetolongergrowingseasons,highertemperaturesandlessdamagebywinterfrosts,yieldsofhayandcerealsareprojectedtoincreasestronglyby2050.Anincreaseofaveragesummertemperaturesby1.5°Cwouldalsoopenupthepossibilityofsuccessfullygrowingmanynewcropsonwideracreage,includingoatsandwheat,evenrye.Harvestofpotatoes,turnips,carrotsandothervegetablesgrownoutdoorsinIcelandtoday,wouldincrease.

Sweden:

Overall,cropyieldsareprojectedtoincreasebytensofpercentinthecourseofthiscentury.Increasedtemperatureswillleadtoincreasedgrowth,particularlyinthespring,whengrowthiscurrentlyseverelyrestrictedbytemperature.In2100,thenumberofdaysbywhichthestartofthegrowingseasonisbroughtforward,forinstance,maybeupto100inthesouthcomparedwiththeperiod1961-1990.Thegrowingzoneswillmovenorthwards.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth




Borealregion

SourcesinUlebergetal.(2014)

Norway:

InnorthernNorway,thegrowingseasonisprojectedtoincreaseby1-4weeksfortheperiod2021-2050,comparedwith1961-1990.TheshortgrowingseasonisoneofthelimitingfactorsforagricultureinnorthernNorwaytoday.Itlimitsthevarietyofpossiblecropsandtheyieldpotential.Consequentlygrasslandoccupiesmorethan90%ofthecultivatedlandinthisarea.

Thecorrelationbetweenalongergrowingseasonandopportunitiesforagricultureisnotstraightforward.InnorthernNorway,anautumnalextensionofthegrowingseasonislimitedbythereducedphotoperiodwhichwillterminategrowthevenifthetemperatureissufficientlyhigh.Utilizingearlierspringconditionsdependsonseveralfactors,includingtheriskforfrostinthisperiod.Besides,increasedtemperatureduringautumncanshortenthehardeningperiod,resultinginlesshardenedplantswhichaffectstheabilityofplantstosurvivewinter.

Precipitationisprojectedtoincreaseespeciallyinautumnwhenprecipitationisalreadyquitehigh.Thisisatpresentcomplicatingharvestingandotherfarmoperationsandtheseproblemsareexpectedtoincreaseinthefuture.Negativeeffectsare“drowning”ofcropsandsoildamagefromusingheavymachinery.Increasedtemperaturesmayincreasedamagebyweeds,pestsanddiseases.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth




Alpineregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:ChangesinprecipitationpatternandincreasedfrequencyofextremeeventsappeartoposethegreatestrisksintheAlpineregion.Theremaybebenefitsfromalongergrowingseasonandtheabilitytogrowsomecropsathigheraltitudes,butthispotentialmaynotberealisedduetosoillimitations.

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–outlines

Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth




Sources:Fuhreretal.(2006);OcCC/ProClim(2007);FOEN(2009);Fingeretal.(2011);Holzkämperetal.(2015,2015b)

Alpineregion

Switzerland:

Underpresentconditions,amoderatewarmingoflessthan2to3°CwouldprobablyhaveapositiveoveralleffectonSwissagriculture.Climatechangeisexpectedtohavesmallpositiveeffectsonwinterwheatproduction,whichrepresentsthemajorityoftheSwisscerealproduction.Theestimatedimpactsofclimatechangeonmaizeyieldsaresubjecttolargeuncertainties:uptoaround2050grainmaizeyieldinSwitzerlandcouldeitherincreaseordecrease.Futuregrainmaizeproductionmaybenefitfromhighertemperatures.Ontheotherhand,theremaybenegativeeffectsduetoheatanddroughtstress,andthroughacceleratedcropdevelopment,particularlyduringvegetativegrowth,floweringandmaturation.Forwinterwheat,therelevanceofheatstressislikelytoincreasewithincreasingtemperatures.

Iftemperaturerisesbymorethan2to3°Cby2050,thedisadvantageswilloutweightheadvantagesofwarming.Theincreaseinheatwavesanddroughtperiodsisparticularlyproblematic.Duringthevegetationperiodwaterscarcitywillbecomemorefrequent.Fasterplantdevelopmentwillresultinharvestlossesforcerealsandgrainlegumes.Theriskofdamageforarablecropsandofyieldlossinanimalfeedproductionwillincrease.Weedsandinsectattacksareexpectedtooccurmoreoftenaswilldamagescausedbyextremeevents.Newpestsanddiseasescanoccurorpersist.

Austria:

Higherelevationswillmostlikelyexperienceimprovementintheiragroclimaticconditions.Thispositiveeffectmightbeshort-lived,asby2050,eventheseareasmightexperiencemuchdrierconditionsthanobservedcurrently.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


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Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:SomeincreasesinagriculturalproductionintheAtlanticcentralregionarepossiblefromincreasedyieldsofcerealsandtheintroductionofnewcrops.However,itmaybedifficulttomaintaintheyieldsofmoremoisture-ortemperature-sensitivecropsifsummerrainfalldecreasesandinsufficientwaterisavailableforirrigation.

Atlanticcentralregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–outlines

Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth



www.climatechangepost.comSources:VanYperseleandMarbaix(2004);Gabriëls(2005);Moriondoetal.(2010);NationalClimateCommissionBelgium(2010)

Atlanticcentralregion

Denmark:

ForDanishagriculture,theoveralleffectsofclimatechangeareestimatedtobeadvantageous.Changesincultivationpracticecanbeimplementedatshortnotice,andproductionisexpectedtogrowwithrisingtemperatureandCO2-concentrations.However,highertemperaturesandhumiditycouldincreasetheriskofpestsandplantdiseases,resultinginanincreaseddemandforpesticides.Atthesametime,increasedproductionwouldrequiremorenutrientsforplants,which,togetherwithmoreprecipitationandhighersoiltemperaturesinwinter,aswellasirrigationinsummer,wouldincreasetheriskofnutrientleachingandrun-off.

Belgium:

•  Iflocaltemperaturesdonotrisebymorethanthreedegrees,climatechangewillhavelittleimpactonagricultureinBelgium:yieldreductiontendstobecompensatedforbythefertilizingeffectofincreasedCO2concentrationformostcrops.

•  ClimatechangeimpactsonmaizeandwinterwheatinBelgiumforthemiddleofthiscenturyaregenerallypositive.WinterwheatbenefitsmorethanmaizefromtheprojectedclimaticchangesduetoitsstrongerresponsetoelevatedCO2concentration.

•  InthelowerpartsofFlanders(andtheNetherlands)agriculturewillsufferfromhigherwaterlevelsandsaltintrusion(duetosealevelrise).Becauseofthis,waterqualitywilldeteriorateandthecostsforwatertreatmentwillincrease.Inthehigherparts,watershortageswilloccurmoreoften.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth



www.climatechangepost.com

www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSourcesinZebischetal.(2005)


Germany:

•  Thevulnerabilityofagriculturetoclimatechangewithoutfurtherspecificadaptationmeasuresisconsidered“moderate”inmostofGermany,and“high”onlyintheEasternGermanregionsthatarepronetodroughtandoftenhavepoorsoils.

•  Insufficientwatersupplyinsummersmaydecreaseyieldsofwheat,ryeandbarleybymid-century.Maizemayshowyieldincreasesinareaswithgoodwatersupply.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth



www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSources:UKMetOffice(2011);Lickeretal.(2013);Gammansetal.(2017)

Atlanticcentralregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–details

France:Observations:Thechangingclimatehasalreadynegativelyaffectedwinterwheatyieldsinthecountry;inthePicardyregion,oneofthebreadbasketsinFrance,climatechangehaslikelycauseda11%decreaseinwinterwheatyieldbetween1973and2010.Projections:•  Bymid-century,projectedyielddeclines(comparedwith1977-2005)rangefrom

3.5%to12.9%forwinterwheatand2.3%to12.1%forwinterbarley.Bytheendofthecentury,underalow-endscenarioofclimatechange,yielddeclinesarecomparabletothoseobservedforthemid-centuryperiod.Underahigh-endscenarioofclimatechange,projectedyielddeclinesofwinterwheatandwinterbarleyare17.2%and14.6%,onaverage,bytheendofthecentury.

•  Projectedyielddeclinesarerelatedtohighertemperatures,nottochangesinprecipitation.

•  Springbarleyyieldispredictedtodeclineby7.0%-25.2%bymid-century.Bytheendofthecentury,effectsaremorepronouncedexceptunderthelowestwarmingscenario.Underthemostrapidwarmingscenario,yieldispredictedtodeclineby16.7%-45.8%.

•  Continuingtechnologytrendsmaycounterbalancemostoftheeffectsofclimatechange.

•  Underamoderatescenarioofclimatechange,forWesternEuropeamaizeyieldlossofaround40%wasprojectedfor2100,relativetothebaseline(1961-1990)intheabsenceofadaptationandmitigationstrategies.

•  For2030-2060,yieldgainsareonaverageexpectedforsunfloweranddurumwheatonapplicationofcertainadaptationmethods.

•  For2070-2100underdifferentscenariosofclimatechange,ageneraldeclineincropyieldsforwinterwheat,springwheat,rice,grassland,maizeandsoybeanswasprojectedfortheendofthecentury,especiallyinthewesternandsouth-westernpartsofthecountry.



SourcesinVanNillesenandVanIerland(2006)

•  Thefen-meadowareasinthewesternpartoftheNetherlandsexperienceseveralinterconnectedproblems:farmlandsubsidence,watershortageduringthedrysummerperiod,excesswaterduringwetperiodsandsalineintrusionrelatedtosea-levelrise.Groundwaterlevelsarekeptlowinagriculturalland.Thisresultsinacceleratedoxidationofpeatandsoilsubsidence.

•  Highertemperatures:Comparedto1961-1990,thegrowingseasonisnowmorethan3weekslonger.Graincropsdonotbenefitfromthehighertemperatureandlongergrowingseasonbecausegrainripensearlierandthereforetheplantshavelesstimetogrow.Adisadvantageofearlygermination/buddingisthegreaterriskofnightfrostdamageinearlyspring;thisriskisparticularlyhighforfruitgrowers.

•  HigherCO2-concentrations:ThecombinedeffectofanincreasingCO2-concentrationandatemperatureriseofupto2-3°Ccanleadtoincreasedpotentialyieldsofwheat,seed,consumableandindustrialpotatoandsugarbeetintheNetherlands.Temperatureincreasesbeyond3-4°Cwillnegativelyinfluencecropyields,exceptformaize.

•  Saltintrusion:SealevelrisewillcauseanincreaseofthesaltwaterseepageinthecoastalzonesoftheNetherlands,andanincreaseofthesaltwaterintrusioninthemainriversincombinationwithlowerriverdischargesinsummer.Thiscanharmsaltsensitivecropsinagricultureandhorticulture.


TheNetherlands:

ClimatechangewilllikelyleadtobothpositiveandnegativeeffectsonagriculturalproductionandtheagriculturaleconomicsituationintheNetherlands.Positivefactorsare:higherCO2concentrationandtemperature,andtheextensionofthegrowingseason;theworseningsituationinthesoutherncountriesofEuropemayalsoprovideDutchagriculturewithextramarketopportunities.Thenegativeeffectswillincreaseasmoreextremeweatherandclimateconditionsoccurmorefrequentlyorpersistforlongerperiods(waterlogginganddrought).Dutchagriculturecanoftenreactflexibletochangingclimaticconditions;smalleryieldsindryyearswilloftenbecompensatedbyhigherprices.Extremeweatherisexpectedtohaveonlyalimitedeffectontheeconomicsuccessofthesector.

•  Wetterwinters:Sowingandharvestingproblems,andglassdamage(hail)andcropdamageduetoextremerainfall.

•  Driersummers:Especiallyforarablelandonsandysoils,cropyieldsmaydecreaseduetoexpecteddecreasedsummerprecipitationandanincreasedfrequencyofhigh-intensityrainshowers.Amongthemostdroughtsensitivecropsaresummervegetables,leafvegetables,flowerbulbs,fruitandtreecrops.



Atlanticnorthregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:ThereispotentialforincreasedagriculturalproductionintheAtlanticnorthregion,especiallyinthelivestocksector.Measuresneedtobeintroducedtoenableadaptationtodriersummers,ascurrentlysummerrainfallusuallyenablesunrestrictedgrowthofcropsandforage.


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


MediterraneanNorth



www.climatechangepost.comSource:EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(2003)

Atlanticnorthregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–details

Ireland,mid-century:

•  Expectedpositiveimpactsoncropyield.Barleyremainsaviablecrop.Withclimatechange,maizegrainproductionincreasesdrasticallymakingmaizemorevaluablethanitiscurrently.

•  Potatowillsuffermost,fromincreasingwaterstressduringthesummermonths.Itsvalueasacommercialcropislikelytodependonirrigation.Viabilityofpotatoproductionasacommercialcropmaybemaintainedwithirrigation,butthiswouldrequirewaterstoragefromtheincreasedrainfallinwintertosurvivethedriersummer.

•  GrassrepresentsthemostimportantcropinIrelandatpresent,andunderpinstheentirelivestockindustry.Asummerdroughtstress(particularlyintheeastandsouth-east)mayleadtolessgrassproductioninthoseregionsandachangetowardsmaizeforforage,whichshouldbecomeaviablecrop.

•  Whereastheincreaseintemperaturesprobablywillraisethepotentialforproductionintheexistingcerealandgrasscrops,theachievementofthispotentialprobablywillbelimitedbyreducedsummerrainfall.

•  Irrigationwillbecomemoreimportant.Ingeneral,potentialproductionisgreaterinthemorehumidwesternareaswherethewaterdeficitisminimal.Intheeasternhalfofthecountryirrigationwillbecomeimportantforallcrops.

•  Asharpeningofeast-westcontrastsislikelytooccurwithlivestockproductiondominatingmoretothewest,andarableproductiondominatingeastoftheShannon.Planningforirrigationisneeded,particularlyintheeast,toensurethatwatercostsareacceptableandsummersurfaceandgroundwaterresourcesarenotoverused.

•  Pestsanddiseases:TherewillbeatendencyforpestsanddiseasesthatarecurrentlyfoundfurthersouthinEuropetomovenorthwardstowardsIreland.



Atlanticnorthregion

Sources:a.o.FarrarandVaze(2000);Kerseyetal.(2000);Andersonetal.(2003);C-CLIFandGEMRU(2003);RichterandSemenov(2005);Ciscaretal.(2009);Iglesiasetal.(2009);Moriondoetal.(2010)


UK–Vulnerabilities:•  Wetterwinters:Saturatedsoilcannotsupporttheweightoftractors.Seedsinfloodedlandare

pronetorotting,andplantscandrownifthegroundiswaterloggedandaircannotgettotheroots.Waterloggingwilllimitthereleaseofnitrogenfromthesoil,restrictingthenutrientsavailableforplantgrowth.Someagriculturallandislikelytobelostduetofluvialandcoastalflooding.Damagewillincreaseduetorun-off.Standingcropswillbedamagedmoreoftenbyheavyprecipitation,highwinds,flashfloodsetc.Infact,somecropscurrentlygrownonlightsoils(e.g.potatoes)maybecomeinappropriateduetounpredictableweathereventssuchasintensestorms.

•  Driersummers:Warmweatherhastenscropdevelopmentandbringsearlierharvests.Howeverincereals,thereduceddurationofthegrowthperiodtendstoreduceyields.Similarlyashortageofwatertendstoslowgrowthdevelopmentandreduceyield.Warmweathercausesearlierfloweringthanusualandthiscausesyieldformationtooccurearlierinthesummer,whichisnormallybeforesoilmoisturereserveshavebeenexhausted.SohistoricallyintheUKhotdrysummershavebeenassociatedwithhigherthanaverageyields.However,theexactimpactonyieldsdependscruciallyonthetimingofthedroughtrelativetothedevelopmentofthecrop,andthismayvaryfromyeartoyearandfromlocationtolocation.

•  Highertemperatures:Higherwintertemperaturesmaynegativelyaffectcerealandfruitproductionbecauseplantsandtreesneedlowwintertemperatureforfloweringandgrowth.Higherwintertemperatureswillalsostimulatepestsanddiseases.Manyfruittreesandbushesalsorequirecoldwinterweathertomovefromdormancytofloweringandgrowth.Aswithwintercereals,thesecrops,includingblackcurrant,appleandraspberry,requireanaccumulationoftemperaturebelowaparticularthresholdinordertoformflowerbuds.Therefore,anincreaseinwintertemperaturescoulddelayformationofflowerbuds,orresultinabnormalityorfailureofflowering,whichwouldtherebyreducethesubsequentcropoffruit.Warmersummersmaybecomeariskforlivestock.Theamountofavailablelandwellsuitedforwinterwheatmaydeclinewithariseintemperatureandlittlechangeinprecipitation.Maizemayreplacesomewheatbutneedsirrigatingtoavoiddrought.

•  Diseasesandpests:Forarablefarming,milderwintersandwarmersummerscarrytheriskofmorediseasesandpests.Thiswillbeexacerbatedbyincreasedwetweatherinthewinter.



Atlanticnorthregion

Sources:a.o.FarrarandVaze(2000);Kerseyetal.(2000);Andersonetal.(2003);C-CLIFandGEMRU(2003);RichterandSemenov(2005);Ciscaretal.(2009);Iglesiasetal.(2009);Moriondoetal.(2010)


UK-Benefitsandopportunities:

ResearchresultsindicatethatthebalanceforUKagricultureismuchmoretowardsareasofincreasedratherthandecreasedcroplandsuitabilityduetoclimatechange.TherearesignificantregionaldifferencesacrosstheUK,though:thenorthoftheUKisgenerallyassociatedwithyieldincreaseswithclimatechange,whereasthesouthisassociatedwithyielddecreases.

Agriculturemaybenefitfromclimatechangeinseveralways,suchashighercropgrowththroughchangesinthegrowingseason,andmorediversificationthroughtheintroductionofnewcrops.Horticulturemaybenefitfromreducedheatingcostsforglasshousecrops.Ingeneral,awarmerclimatewillassistinincreasingthediversityofcrops.Thiswouldleavefarmerslessdependentononecommodityandthereforemoreinsulatedagainstthemarket.Thedriersummersmightalsoofferanopportunityfortheagriculturesectorbyallowingnewtypesofcropstobegrown.Thismightaffectthehorticulturesectorthroughincreasedopportunitiesforgrowingsoftfruits,andalsoforagriculturewhereitmightbepossibletogrowsunflowersandsoya,andgrapevineandbio-fuelsincludingvegetableoils.

ElevatedCO2stimulatesplantgrowthandmayapproximatelycompensateforreducedyieldscausedbyelevatedtemperatures.Becauseofthis,theyieldofwinterwheatinEnglandandWalesprobablywillnotsufferfromclimatechangebythe2050swithrespecttothebaseline1960-1990.


www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSource:Iglesias(2012)

Atlanticsouthregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:ThepriorityfortheAtlanticsouthregionwillbetoconservewatertoreducetheriskofdecreasesincropyieldsandtoavoidconflictwithotherwaterusers.Theremayalsobeopportunitiestogrowcropsmoretoleranttoheatanddrought.


Boreal


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www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSources:Ciscaretal.(2009);Santosetal.(2017)

Atlanticsouthregion

Portugal:

•  ForPortugal,thechangeofcropyieldin2080comparedwith1990hasbeenestimatedbasedonseveralcombinationsofmodelsandscenarios;theoutcomesshowadecreaserangingfrom4.0%toalmost30%.

•  Fruitproductionmightbeparticularlyvulnerabletoclimaticchange,particularlyinsouthernEurope.Aperiodoflowtemperaturesisneededforregularbudburst(chillingaccumulation),whileaperiodofwarmtemperatures(heataccumulation)isneededforadequatebloomingandripening.Climatechangemaysignificantlyaltertheseconditions,thusthreateningfruitproduction.

•  InnersouthernPortugalisexpectedtoundergothemostdetrimentalclimaticchangesfortemperatefruitandnuttrees(toomuchheatstress).

•  Ontheotherhand,thenorth-easternareasareprojectedtoexperienceanincreaseinheataccumulation,whichmayindeedbebeneficial,whilewinterchillisexpectedtodecreaseonlyslightly,likelywithoutmajorimpactsontrees.

•  Theremaybeopportunitiesforspreadinghighheatdemandingspecies,includingplantationofnewfruitspeciesinthewarmestareas(e.g.subtropicalfruitspecies).


Boreal


AtlanticNorth

AtlanticSouth


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Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:IntheContinentalnorthregiontheincreaseinthenorthernrangeofcropsandlongergrowingseasonoffersthepotentialforincreasedcropandlivestockproduction.Howeverwaterstressinsummerandinfertilesoilsmaylimitthispotential.Floodingisalsoaseriousrisk.Priorityneedstobegiventomanagewatersuppliestoreducetheriskoffloodingandtoconservewatertoincreaseavailabilityforagriculture.

Continentalnorthregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–outlines

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Continentalnorthregion

Sources:Behrensetal.(2010);Szwedetal.(2010);Trnkaetal.(2016)

CzechRepublic:

Thecombinationofdroughthazardandahighproportionoffast-dryingsoilsmakesthesouth-easternpartoftheCzechRepublicandanareatothewestofPragueandaroundPilsenthemostvulnerablewithrespecttoclimatechange.Thesevulnerableareasarepresentlyconsideredtobethemostfertileregionsinthecountry.Profoundincreasesintheoveralldroughthazardareprojected,alreadyfortheperiod2021-2040.

Poland:

BetweennowandtheendofthiscenturyaveragecropyieldinPolandwillprobablychangeslightly.Initially,owingtowarmertemperatures,thedecreaseinprecipitationandthelongergrowingseasons,theremaybeanimprovementincropproductivity(cereals,oilseedsandsugarbeet)incountriessuchasBulgaria,theCzechRepublic,Hungary,PolandandRomania.Inordertousetheagro-potentialoftheenvironment,higheradditionalwatersupplieswouldbeneeded.However,alreadythepresentscantywaterresourcesofPolanddonotallowmassiveirrigationandthesituationislikelytobecomemoresevereinthefuture.


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Continentalsouthregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:AgricultureintheContinentalsouthregionislikelytobeadverselyaffectedbyhotterdriersummerswithyieldsofcropssuchaspotatoes,sugarbeetandforagecropsmostlikelytobereduced.Priorityneedstobegiventoensuringwatersuppliesforagricultureandalsopromotingthegrowthofcrops,suchassoya,thatcouldreplacevulnerablecrops.


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www.climatechangepost.comSources:Behrensetal.(2010);Faragoetal.(2010);MinistryofEnvironmentandSpatialPlanningoftheRepublicofSerbia(2010);LalicandMihailovic(2011);Zemankovics(2012)


Hungary:

•  Initially,owingtowarmertemperatures,thedecreaseinprecipitationandthelongergrowingseasons,theremaybeanimprovementincropproductivity(cereals,oilseedsandsugarbeet)incountriessuchasBulgaria,theCzechRepublic,Hungary,PolandandRomania.

•  InHungary,around98%oftheagriculturallandisnotirrigated,mainlyduetothelargenumberofsmallfarms.Underamoderatescenarioofclimatechange,maizeproductionwillprobablyonlybepossiblewithirrigationinthesecondhalfofthecentury.

•  Forvegetables,yieldriskduetofrostdamagesandhailstormsmayincrease.Vulnerabilityoffruitspeciesisratherdiverse;cherry,walnut,plumandapplewillbelessendangeredinthefutureincomparisonwithotherspecies.

Serbia:

ProjectionsforfuturedecadesthatneglecttheCO2fertilizereffectindicateayielddropinallconsideredcrops(corn,sunflower,soy,potatoandwheat).ProjectionsthatincludethisCO2fertilizereffectshowsmallerdecreasesorincreases(especiallywheat)ofcropyield,dependingonthecropandthescenarioofclimatechange.


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www.climatechangepost.comSources:MinistryofEnvironmentandNaturalResourcesMolvova(2009);UNDP(2009);sourcesinMetOfficeHadleyCentre(2010)


Moldova:

•  Theproductivityofthewinterwheatmaydecreasebytensofpercentinfuturedecadesbecausevegetationphasesshiftsintoamoreunfavourableperiod(dryconditions)duetotemperatureincrease.

•  Withoutadaptationmeasures,asignificantyielddrop(tensofpercent)isalsoprojectedforsugarbeet,whileamediumdropisprojectedforgrainmaize(upto30%bytheendofthecentury).

•  Ifnoalternativeeconomicoccupationsareprovided,thesetrendswilldrivemoreruralfamiliesintopovertyandfurtherencouragethedepopulationofruralareas.

•  CO2fertilizationwillnotcompensatecompletelyforthelossesinwheatproductionduetotheprojectedincreaseintemperaturesandreductioninamountofprecipitations.

Ukraine:

Itisprojectedthatclimatechange,coupledwiththebenefitsfromnewcropvarietiesandbettertechnology,couldincreasecropyieldsinUkraine.Conditionswillbecomemorefavourableforcropssuchasbarley,oat,corn,andlegumes,aswellasgreenfodder.Estimatesshowclimate-relatedincreasesinwheatyieldofupto30%by2080.However,thepotentialforgaininUkraineduetomorefavourableconditionsforcropscouldbeoffsetbyincreasedvariabilityandextremeevents.Iftheprojectedchangeinthefrequencyofdroughtistakenintoaccount,thenumberofyearswithfoodproductionshortfallsincreasessubstantially.


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Mediterraneannorthregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:•  IntheMediterraneannorthregiontheforecastrisksgreatly

outweighanypotentialbenefits.Forecastdecreasesintotalannualrainfallmakewaterconservationapriorityandcarefulattentionneedstobegiventoavoidingconflictsoverwateruse.

•  Thenorth-easternMediterraneanisa“vulnerabilityhotspot”forwheatandmaize;inthesecondhalfofthiscenturythisregionwillbebothexposedtoworsedroughtsandareducedcapacitytoadapt.

•  Asconditionsdeteriorateforcereals,opportunitiesforothercropsmayopenup.WarmerclimatesandalongergrowingseasonwouldextendthescopeforoliveandcitrusthroughoutmuchofthenorthernMediterraneanregion.


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www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSources:Behrensetal.(2010);Fraseretal.(2013);MalekandVerburg(2018)


South-easternEurope,includingBosniaandHerzegovina:

•  Increasingtemperatureswillpromotethedevelopmentrateofallwintercropssuchaswheat,whichthereforemightfaceahigherprobabilityofcropfailurefromfrostdamage.Morehotdaysandadeclineinrainfallorirrigationcouldalsoreduceyields.

•  Temperatureincreasesinspringandsummerwillacceleratethecourseofcropdevelopment.Thiswillreducethegrain-fillingperiods.Ontheotherhand,improvementsintherateofdry-matterproductioncanbeexpectedfromenhancedCO2-concentrations.

•  Warmerwinterscanreducetheyieldsofstonefruitsthatrequirewinterchilling(moderatecoldness)andlivestockwouldbeadverselyaffectedbygreaterheatstress.

Bulgaria:

Benefitsandopportunities:Initially,owingtowarmertemperatures,thedecreaseinprecipitationandthelongergrowingseasons,theremaybeanimprovementincropproductivity(cereals,oilseedsandsugarbeet)incountriessuchasBulgaria,theCzechRepublic,Hungary,PolandandRomania.


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www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSource:Mesic(2011)


Croatia:

•  Yieldswillbeconstrainedbythelengthofthegrowingperiod,theprovisionofsufficientwater,andpossiblecropdamageduetoearlyspringfrostsandexcessivelyhightemperaturesinsummer.Fasterinitialgrowthinspringincreasestheriskofcropdamagebyfrost.

•  Thesowingofspringcropswillcommenceearlierand,dependingonthepossibilityofprovidingsufficientirrigationwater,thegrowingperiodwilllastlonger.Withoutsufficientwaterforirrigation,insomeyearsyieldsmightbesubstantiallyreducedduetodroughts.

•  Wintercropswillhavemorefavourableconditionsforgrowthanddevelopment,thussomeincreasesinyieldcanbeexpected.However,considerableproblemsmayoccurintermsofweed,diseaseandpestcontrol.

•  Inthefuture,damagescausedbyverycoldwintersorlatespringfrosts,whicharenowadaysalimitedfactorforfruitandvinegrowingincontinentalCroatia,willbeminimised.Positiveeffectsmaybeexpectedintheplantationproductionofgrapesandapples,whichwillextendtoareaspresentlyunsuitable.


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www.climatechangepost.comSources:CarraroandSgobbi(2008);Giannakopoulos(2005,2009);sourcesinMETOffice(2011);Ventrellaetal.(2012);Lionelloetal.(2014)


VulnerabilitiesItaly

•  InsouthernEuropelargeyielddeclinesareexpectedforspring-sowncrops(e.g.maize,sunflowerandsoybeans),spring-summercrops(e.g.tomatoes)aswellasforautumn-sowncrops(e.g.winterandspringwheat).Inparticular,intheEuropeanMediterraneanregionincreasesinthefrequencyofextremeclimateeventsduringspecificcropdevelopmentstages(e.g.heatstressduringfloweringperiod,rainydaysduringsowingtime),togetherwithhigherrainfallintensityandlongerdryspells,arelikelytoreducetheyieldofsummercrops(e.g.sunflowers,soybean).

•  Lengtheningofthegrowingperiodofabout10-15dayspereach°Cofriseinyearlyaveragetemperatureandconsequentshorteningofcoldwinterperiodsareexpected.Consequently,olivetree,citrustreeandvinecultivationswouldbefavouredinthenorthofItaly,whereascorncultivationswouldbedisadvantagedinthesouth.

•  Mid-century:negativeimpactsofclimatechange(drierandhotterconditions)havebeensuggestedforthesoutheastofItalyonwineproduction(decreaseby20-26%)andolivesproduction(harvestdecreaseby8-19%),andminorimpactsonwheatharvest;intheseresults,noadaptationofcropsandnofertilizationeffectofCO2wasconsidered.

•  Endofthecentury:underamoderatescenarioofclimatechange,bothnegative(soybean,maize,sweetpotato,greenbeans;uptoafew%)andpositive(wheat,potato,maize;upto10.8%)yieldchangesareprojectedforSouthernEurope(comparedwiththe1990s).Undermoreextremescenarios,yieldreductionsof0to27%havebeenestimatedforwinterwheat,springwheat,rice,grassland,maize,andevenof71-80%fordurumwheat.

•  Upto2°C,anincreaseofatmosphericCO2mayfavourthegrowthofseveralspecies,providedthatsufficientwaterandsoilnutrientsareavailable.Problemswillariseforthoseregionswhereclimatechangeiscausingprocessesofaridityandsoildegradation,andforthoseregionswherefrequencyandintensityofextrememeteorologicaleventsareincreasing.



www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSources:Giannakopoulosetal.(2005);Iglesias(2012)

Mediterraneansouthregion

Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities:ForthesouthernMediterranean,themainrisksconcerntheconsequencesofpotentialreductionsintotalprecipitation.Hencestrategiesneedtobeconsideredtoconserveasmuchwateraspossibleoverwintertomaintainsupplyduringthesummer.Nosignificantopportunitieswereidentifiedinthiszone.Theimpactsofclimatechangeareforecasttobesoseriousthatitmayleadtolandabandonment.ThesouthernMediterraneanislikelytoexperienceanoverallreductionofcropyields(legumes,cereals,tubercrops)duetothechangeinclimate.IncreasesinCO2helptoreducethelossinyieldarisingfromawarmeranddrierclimate,butisnotabletocompletelyoffsetthelosses.


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www.climatechangepost.comwww.climatechangepost.comSource:Diku(2011)

Albania:

•  Highertemperaturesduringthegrowthseasonwillincreasethedevelopmentrateofallwintercrops,whichwillthereforefaceextremeevents(coldspells)atalaterstagewhentheyaremoresensitive.

•  Ingeneral,highertemperaturesmayshortenthereproductivecycleofmanypests,thustheriskofcropdamagefrompestsanddiseasesmayincrease.

•  Ariseinmeantemperaturestendstolowertheyieldsofmanycrops.Thisismainlyaconsequenceoffasterplantgrowth,resultinginmorerapidmaturityandreducedaccumulationoforganicmatter

•  Otherimpactsare:increasedriskofdroughtandwaterscarcity;increasedirrigationrequirements;soilerosion,salinization,anddesertification(soilerosionisahugeprobleminAlbania:60%oftheterritoryisaffected);deteriorationofconditionsforlivestockproduction;sea-levelriseandintrusionofsaltwaterintothesoil.

•  Thedirectimpactsofchangesintemperatureandprecipitationinthefuturewillbemixed.Climatechangeisforecasttoimproveyieldsofwheatandirrigatedalfalfa,toreduceharvestsofgrapesandolives,andtohaverelativelymodesteffectsontomatoes,watermelons,maize,soybean,grasslandandnon-irrigatedalfalfa.

Mediterraneansouthregion Vulnerabilitiesandopportunities–details

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europe’s agriculture in a changing climate part 3: travelling … · 2019-06-14 · boreal region...

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