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European Pulpwood Import Markets February 2016, Vietnam

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Page 1: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

European Pulpwood Import MarketsFebruary 2016, Vietnam

Page 2: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

1. European pulpwood production

Europe. Main Players

4.1Mill. 

MT/year

11.6Mill. 

MT/year

10.5Mill. 

MT/year

1.7Mill. 

MT/year

2.6Mill. 

MT/year

>20

PULP PRODUCTION 

CENTRALEUROPE 6.1

IBERIA

SCANDINAVIA

4.1Source: WRQ & Generandi. 2016

2

European pulp production

~31Mill tAD/yr

15% of world’s pulp production

1.8Mill. 

MT/year

Page 3: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

Imports are mainly from Russia and European countries

2. European woodchip trade (i)

A. 2016* softwood woodchip trade Total 2016* imports : 1.931.777 BDMT

*Until October

Germany France Finland Sweden TOTALSweden 35.912 ‐ ‐ ‐ 35.912Netherlands 38.089 ‐ ‐ ‐ 38.089France 45.629 ‐ ‐ ‐ 45.629Finland ‐ ‐ ‐ 99.629 99.629Estonia ‐ ‐ 104.136 108.176 212.312Spain ‐ 121.421 ‐ ‐ 121.421Norway ‐ ‐ 2.050 249.150 251.200Latvia ‐ ‐ 47.991 401.237 449.227Russia ‐ ‐ 556.046 21.788 577.834Other countries 55.587 44.936 ‐ ‐ 100.524TOTAL 175.217 166.358 710.223 879.979 1.931.777

VOLUME OF SOFTWOOD WOODCHIPS (BDMT)IMPORTING COUNTRIES

EXPO

RTING COUNTRIES

Page 4: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

2. European woodchip trade (ii)

B. 2016* hardwood woodchip trade (i)

Total 2016* imports: 908.008 BDMT

Sweden France Finland Germany Portugal TOTALSpain ‐ 1.858 ‐ ‐ 11.955 13.812Poland ‐ 120 ‐ 18.533 ‐ 18.653Germany ‐ 33.461 ‐ ‐ 65 33.526Belgium ‐ 13.987 ‐ 29.860 ‐ 43.846Netherlands ‐ 346 ‐ 62.666 ‐ 63.012Russia 2.849 ‐ 107.121 ‐ ‐ 109.970Brazil ‐ 49.612 ‐ ‐ 144.779 194.391Uruguay ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 396.674 396.674

Other countries10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐

34.123TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008

VOLUME OF HARDWOOD WOODCHIPS (BDMT)IMPORTING COUNTRIES

EXPO

RTING COUNTRIES

*Until October

Page 5: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

HW chips imports trends in the last 5 years:• Continuous increase in Portugal’s 

imports.• Gradual decrease in Scandinavian 

countries imports.• Spain is no longer a potential importer.

2. European woodchip trade (iv)

C. Demand in Europe (i)

European hardwood chips imports have been historically dominated by the Iberian countries. However, 2015 brought a sharp change. Huelva´s closure in Spain reduced imports dramatically.

Source: National Custom Offices (Fin, Swe, Ger, Port, Fr & Spain)

‐100%

+170%

5

Page 6: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

B. Scandinavia (i)

Source: National Statistics Institute of Finland

Finland  has a very strong local supply and imports 

represent less than 1% of its total consumption

FINLAND is  one of the major  pulp producers in Europe producing 10.2 Mill TAD/yr which equals  to a >36 Mill 

m³ u.b./yr of woodchip consumption.

However, the level of its imports are far from this figure (max. 0.7 Mill in 2008). Since 2012, when Russia entered 

the WTO, woodchips are almost exclusively sourced from this country.

6

3. Main importing countries (i)

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

2.008 2.009 2.010 2.011 2.012 2.013 2.014 2.015 2016(Jan‐Oct)

GMT

Finland HD. Chips Imports 

Lithuania

South Africa

Liberia

Latvia

Canada

Estonia

Uruguay

Brazil

Russia

Page 7: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

B. Scandinavia (ii)

Source: National Statistics Institute of Sweden

SWEDEN is the major pulp producer of Europe with 11,6 Mill TAD/yr which equals to a ≈40 Mill m³ u.b./yr 

of woodchip consumption.However its imports are far from this with <0.1 GMT 

since 2013.

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

GMT (x1000)

Sweden imports of HD. Chips

LR Liberia

RU Russia

ZA South Africa

GB U.K.

EE Estonia

NO Norway

FI Finland

UY Uruguay

LV Latvia

3. Main importing countries (ii)

Imports have been decreasing since 2009, and at the same time there has been a great change in importing partners

Page 8: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

3. Main importing countries (iii)

A. Germany (i)

Source: National Statistics Institute of Germany 

16,200 GMT

POLAND

8

i. GR has been increasing its hardwood chip imports since 2008.

ii. There has been a reduction of 30% in the prices since 2014. The average price indicates a probable biomass destination

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(1‐10)

GMTTotal Hardwoodchip Imports (2008‐Oct 2016)

Page 9: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan‐May  2016

X1000 GMT

Consumption mix: 2008‐Jan/Oct 2016

Portugal Logs Extra Iberian Local

• SPAIN 

Source: ASPAPEL, Generandi & The Official Statistics from the Spanish Customs Chamber.

C. Iberia (i)

9

3. Main importing countries (iv)

Oct 2016

Page 10: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

2.008 2.009 2.010 2.011 2.012 2.013 2.014 2.015 Jan‐Aug2016

GMT Eucalyptus pulpwood Chips imports to Portugal

Chile

Brazil

Congo

Uruguay

• PORTUGAL 

Source: The National Statistics Institute (INE) of Portugal

10

3. Main importing countries (v)

C. Iberia (ii)

Oct

Page 11: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

11

4. Mid term market drivers (i)

• US Dollar’s strength

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

125%

130%

Jan Feb March April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Currency evolution Jan'16 base

€/US$

BRL/US$

UYU/US$

CLP/US$

Page 12: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

Where will Portugal’s sustainable pulpwood be 

sourced from?

12

4. Mid term market drivers (ii)

UPM Kymmene is planning to open a new pulp mill in Uruguay by 2020, that would consumelocally sourced wood. This could affect Portugal’s pulpwood imports, as woodchips are beingsourced mainly from this country.

UPM pulp mill (Fray Bentos)

• Uruguay’s exporting capacity

Montes del Plata pulp mill (Colonia)

Page 13: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

13

4. Mid term market drivers (iii)

• Turkey’s softwood imports

There is a global trend of limiting the trade of softwood chips and logs from North America. Currently the EU requires thermal treatment for importing this material.

Could this trend affect Turkey?

Where would Turkey’s sustainable softwood chips 

be sourced from?

Page 14: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

14

4. Mid term market drivers (iv)

• Mediterranean softwood biomass market: Pine wood nematode 

The pine wood nematode is very extended in Portugal and already present in some regions in Spainand could promptly affect French territory.

Under this circumstance, biomass exports from Southern toNorthern Europe and the intra‐Mediterranean trade couldbe affected due to possible phytosanitary restrictions.

Source: Le Figaro

Page 15: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

Both organisms, nematode and cochineal,represent an important phytosanitary risk forMediterranean biomass trade

15

4. Mid term market drivers (iv)

• Mediterranean softwood biomass market: Pine cochienal

The pine cochineal is a specific mealybug (cochineal) of Pinus pinaster to which a strong pinemortality in 1957 in France was attributed. There have already been reported damages in northernItaly, in 216 hectares and Spain (Valencia).

Source: Il Tirreno

Page 16: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

16

4. Mid term market drivers (v)

• Trend in woodchip projects

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

30.000.000

35.000.000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016

Biomass projects

Woodchips Pellets TOTAL TM

Page 17: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

4. Mid term market drivers (v)

Biomass. 2020 Scenario (i) (>50 MW) BIOMASS PLANTS 2020 

Projects53%

Running 201647%

Woodchip consumption 2020

Total: ≈ 12 Mt/yr

DENMARK29%

UK24%

IRELAND18%

NETHERLANDS16%

FRANCE13%

Woodchips projects (>50MW) 2020

Total Projects: ≈ 6 Mt/yr

Source: Generandi

Page 18: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

18Source: EUROSTAT/Focus Economics

4. Mid term market drivers (vi)

Page 19: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

€/BDMT

Local pulp woodchip price trend

Sweden Finland Germany France Portugal Spain

4. Mid term market drivers (vi)

Page 20: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

20

Energy crop

Spanish cut back

Marginal developments in Southern France and Sicily

Eucalyptus benthamii trials

4. Mid term market drivers (vi)

Not motivated forest owner

mycosphaerella& gonipterus

Immature harvesting

Euca plantations: lower local production

globulus/nitens mix

Page 21: European Pulpwood Markets - RISI...Uruguay ‐‐ ‐‐396.674 396.674 Other countries 10.849 3.013 ‐ 20.261 ‐ 34.123 TOTAL 13.698 102.397 107.121 131.320 553.472 908.008 VOLUME

21

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!