European Jobs Monitor

Shifts in the employment structure in Europe during the Great Recession

• Method first used by J. Stiglitz, and refined by E.O. Wright - USA

• Concept/objectives: – To describe structural change in the labour market using the job as a unit of

observation. A job is an occupation in a sector– To add a qualitative dimension to net employment change data (ELFS) using

wage (as a proxy of job quality)– To provide data on the extent to which member states are making good on

the policy commitment to create ‘more and better jobs’ (Lisbon, EU2020, EES)

• First cross-national application in Europe (to 23 MSs for 1995-2006) in More and better jobs?: Patterns of employment expansion in Europe, 1995-2006 (www.eurofound.europa.eu/publications/htmlfiles/ef0850.htm )

• Subsequent work by Goos/Manning uses a variant of the method – “The polarisation of employment in Europe” (2010)

The ‘jobs’ approach: overview

… leading to a quintile

assignment

Rank Sector Occupation

1 Financial services Corporate managers

2 Legal /accounting Other professionals

3 Education Teaching professionals

4 Human health activities Life science and health profs

.......

……

1105 Agriculture Skilled agric / fishery workers

1106 Services to buildings Sales/services elementary occups

1107 Education Sales/services elementary occups

1108 Food manufacture Craft workers

Low 20%paid

Mid-low paid

Midpaid

Mid-high paid

High 20%paid

Quintiles

For each country, a job ranking . . .

The Great Recession: 5m jobs lost in the EU

02

,00

04

,00

06

,00

08

,00

0

US, 1992-2000 (Wright/Dwyer)

02

,00

04

,00

06

,00

08

,00

0

EU(23), 1998-2007

Recent employment expansionsin EU and US (different periods)

Before and after . . .

MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008q2-10q2

MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008q2-10q2

MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008q2-10q2

MSs + EU-27, employment change by quintile, 2008q2-10q2

Polarisation Upgrading Downgrading

Variety of national patterns(2008-10)

Sector: loss concentrated in manufacturing / construction

Services: where the growth is

* (L)KIS=(Less) Knowledge Intensive services

Gender: heavy male job losses, heavily polarised

Very different impactsby age group

Foreign-born workers:Growth in low-paid employment

Temporary work: The fall and rise

Temporary work: The fall and rise

• Labour market impacts of recession varied very much between member states

• Resilience of growth in top-quintile jobs • Disappearing middle

– Polarisation – distributional inequality, ‘Blocs’ of good and bad jobs, – What do those who lose their jobs in medium-paying jobs do?– Occupational mobility

• Youth unemployment– ‘New skills for new jobs’?

• Destandardisation – Increasing part-time, temporary/fixed-term work (absent ES)

• Next 5 years?– The public sector

Conclusions and policy pointers

• Thank you for your attention

• Extra slides

White collar Blue collar Total

Sector/Occupation High skill

Low skill

High skill

Low skill

Primary sector -7.7 -2.6 -0.9 2.9 -0.8

Construction -3.6 -10.5 -11.2 -16.4 -10.7

Manufacturing -6.9 -7.8 -10.1 -14.0 -10.2

Retail -2.7 -3.4 -5.8 -6.3 -3.7

Other private services 1.6 -0.8 -2.0 -0.9 0.1

Public services and utilities 4.3 3.0 -3.7 -0.6 3.2

Total 0.7 -1.1 -7.3 -6.1 -2.5

EU-27 employment shifts by occupation/sector, 2008q2-2010q2

Services, esp public sector: where the growth was

Irish labour mkt during the crisis

Temporary work: The fall and rise

Part-time work:Increasing across the board

From upgrading with some polarisation

(1998-2007) to

polarisation with some upgrading (2008-2010)

more “hollowing out” than growth in the tails

In summary

Education

Comparing job-wage and job-skill rankings (% per annum employment change by quintile, EU27)

Manufacturing:a German exception

AGE

Job-wage rankings

• Source: ELFS 2008 annual data• Mean net wage per hour per employee in job• Data not available for all countries, yet. Our solution:

– To enquire with MSs for missing countries positive response from Denmark

– Generate a common EU ranking (based on 13 MS inc UK, IT, FR and PL) and apply to countries where we have no data. Second-best but practical. High level of correlation of job-wage ranks between countries.

• Eurostat wage data - coverage and quality - will improve.

Irish labour mkt during the crisis

• Breaks in data 2007 – transition to NACE (sector) rev 2.0 • 3 yrs of ELFS data with the new sector classification. • Wage data in the ELFS available for 14 countries

(ELFS annual 2008).• First application of ‘jobs approach’ using NACE rev 2 sector

data with up-to-date data. • We start today with analysis of change in structure of jobs

between 2008Q2 & 2010Q2.

But first how to rank jobs & present results in quintiles

European Jobs Monitor 2011

Gender, age and emp status

• Gender: “a very male recession” – not only quantitatively • Age:

- old gained in all quintiles esp. at the top- young lose in all quintiles esp. towards the bottom

• Part-time- net gains equally shared between sexes- male in lower quintiles, women in higher

• Temporary work- Steep losses 08-09, rapid growth 09-10- shift to lower quintiles