european commission, joint research centre brussels, … · 2016-06-03 · european commission,...
TRANSCRIPT
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FORESIGHT:
Case studies in policy and strategy European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Brussels, November 27, 2014
Sohail Inayatullah
Professor, Tamkang University, Mt Eliza Executive Education, Sunshine Coast University, Meta-
future.org
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Learning and the Future
• Zero Loop – overwhelmed, Pretending
• Single Loop – take aways -
Doing • Double Loop – outside of
paradigm learning, entering the unknown –
Knowings
• Narrative learning, finding and creating your story - Being
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Challenge Assumptions
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Not just observe but transform
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See the world differently
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See multiple perspectives, and the evolving overall
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The future is an asset, a resource and a narrative to be employed.
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Joan of Arc and Noah
10% of Americans believe Joan of Arc was Noah’s wife
(and 12 million believe lizard people
run the country)
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CHANGING IMAGES OF THE FUTURE
MAPPING THE FUTURE
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Health
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Changing images of
the futures
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Changing images, changing demographics
Thirty-four percent of Victoria GPs have trained in meditation and
seventy-seven believe it should be federally funded. Eighty percent of
Australian gps have referred patients to complementary medicine.
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Mindfulness - meditation
Studies show:
• 87% less heart disease
• 55.4% less tumours
• 50.2% less hospitalization
• 30.6% less mental disorders
• 30.4% less infectious diseases
• Turns “stress” genes off
• Among the elderly, compared to control groups they live 23% longer, 49% less likely to die from cancer, 30% less likely to die from heart disease.
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Geomedicine
• Do you live near fast food restaurants
• Chances of strokes go up (association)
• Rise of geo-medicine
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2025 health – genomics meets meditation, plus participatory health
• Prediction
• Prevent
• Personalize
• Participate – peer to peer health
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Linking the three horizons
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THE PROBLEM
• Rapidly changing world, with heterogeneous perspectives and rates of change
• Multiple perspectives, with success often dependent on stakeholder inclusion (but we don’t like the other stakeholders)
• Perception of loss of agency, how to recover capacity to influence
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Transformative Futures Thinking
= Regain influence
and capacity by exploring
alternative futures and envisioning
desired
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FUTURES IN PRACTICE – FORESIGHT LEARNINGS
CASE STUDIES
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1. Old behavior dies hard – the used future
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Challenge the “factory”
• Creating digital pedagogies with students as stakeholders instead only principal “in charge”
• Redesign spaces, and
• We are all learners – an ecology of insight and foresight
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CLA ON THE KNOWLEDGE REVOLUTION
• Computers per child
• The classroom
• Industrial
• The factory, I am in charge
• Innovation
• Learning and fun spaces
• Knowledge economy
• The playground, we are all learners
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E-health Bangladesh – challenge the used future
• Moving the data not the patient
• Local community health workers
• The fly over story
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Error 1
• Living in the past,
the used future –
the old behaviour
even though it no
longer serves
current reality or the desired future.
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Your used future?
Give one
example of
how your
organization
continues a
used future
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Words of Yang Chu, while weeping at the crossroads
Isn’t it here that you
take a half step wrong
and wake up a
thousand miles astray?
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2 Scan the environment and make the changes
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Are colas the new tobacco?
BECOME A WELLNESS COMPANY BY 2035?
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HEALTH INSURANCE
• Move from generic risk profile to person specific risk profile: real time, age specific, monitoring.
• Move from Insurer to Health knowledge services navigator
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Insurance to Bio-informatics to
Driverless trucks
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Cast away to Casting networks –
use the rivers
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International NGOs World Vision, Oxfam, Caritas, Communify
1. Government funded
2. Individual donations
3. Poverty reduction
4. Paternalistic
• We do to you
1. Float an Initial public offering
2. Follow the kiva.model i.e. become a facilitator linking those in need plus quality control e.g. uber for the homeless
3. Disappear
4. Become a social movement
5. The NGO approval check for best practice
• Together we do
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Error 2
• Used current uncertainties to
develop their scenarios
• Missed global financial crisis
• Risk – present defines the
future, inattention to
emerging issues, weak
signals. The right answer not
a foresight learning culture.
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3 DON’T WAIT FOR THE BAD TIMES
Dubbo, NSW Mayors and Laoag, Philippines
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Error 3
ENGAGE IN FORESIGHT WHEN REPTILIAN
BRAIN IS ACTIVE
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4 Library futures 2025
Direct brain downloads and the holodeck
“amazing new places”
One stop shop facilitates
“the heart of the community”
The new publisher, using trust to create the new library
“we co-author”
Digital dinosaurs “Libraries quieter than ever”
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THE FIFTH SCENARIO what is missing or your preferred?
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4a Cairns Airport 2025
Airport City
shared revenue
stream).
It is the
destination
Transform
Cairns –
become a
lobbyist –
change the
culture
Green smart
learning
personalized
airport –
customer
experience – my
airport
Become the
airline – Air
Mackay
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LECTURE LEARNING FROM EVERYWHERE
SMART PEDAGOGY WISDOM OF CHOICE
EXAM BASED SELF-DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS DIRECTED PARTNERSHIPS
CONFORMANCE AND CERTFICATION
DEMOCRATIZATION BLENDED LEARNING WHOLESOME
FORCE FEED EAT ALL YOU CAN (Ala Carte)
OMNIVORE NUTRITUOUS BUFFET
MALAYSIA TEACHING AND LEARNING 2025
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Error 4
• Assume there is
only one future
instead of
alternative futures
• Getting it right
versus adaptability
and emergence”
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5 Where are you in the macro-pattern?
• CYCLICAL – IBN KHALDUN
• LINEAR – AUGUSTE COMTE AND HERBERT SPENCER
• THE PENDULUM – PITIRIM SOROKIN
• THE SPIRAL – P.R. SARKAR
Present
Future
Past Present
Possible Future
Sensate Integrated Ideational
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6 From Vision to Reality
• ICBA – from visions to funded strategy
• CEO – champion
• Engaged foresight process
• Funding
• Link to present and journey to the future
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Gold coast 2037
Personal vision
Link with elections
Broad stakeholders, politicians, citizens, experts
New vision budgeted!
light rail
green spaces
family culture
Three national awards for best project
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The backcast
• Small shifts leading to major changes
• Quarantining the voices of cynicism (it won’t work), fatigue (I’m too tired) and sabotage (I’ll destroy it)
• Remembering the milestones
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Error 6
• Vision not linked to
funding
• Vision not held by
champions
• Vision disconnected from
dominant narrative
• Vision not linked to
milestones through
backcasting
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7 Link story to strategy
• Narrative not linked to strategy or vision
• Culture eats strategy for breakfast
• Transform inner story and link it to vison-strategy
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Metaphors and crime
Catching and
jailing
criminals
Crime as a
beast
Crime
as a
virus
Education and ending poverty
CRIME DATA PRESENTED REMAINS THE SAME WITH EACH METAPHOR
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Castle surrounded by hungry wolves
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Policing as a Roman coliseum
Police as
“christians”
Lions as
criminals, getting
faster and more
dangerous
Citizens watching
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International policing
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Super industry experts to educators and therapists
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From the “collection” to the ecosystem of alternatives
Keeper of the collection
Innovator of the gardens
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Libraries in transition
Books loaned Visits, workshops, engagement
Organizing and referencing texts Organizing and creating new spaces: physical, digitally amplified and augmented reality
Expert Facilitation and co-curation
The keeper of the collection Innovator of the gardens
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Leaking oil tanker to Optimus Prime
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Singapore – Ministry of Transport
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Oxfam Governance Asia 2030
Rule of the big man -
feudal
Fresh food market – pluralistic,
inclusive, democratic
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Cinderella's Alchemy - Milojevic
Deconstruction: Passivity
Reconstruction: Entrepreneurship and gender
partnership,
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From the labyrinth to Icarus to Dadealus
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Error 7
• Focus on strategy and forget – lack of mindfulness - on culture and narrative
• Engineer the future instead of transforming “bob the builder.”
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8 Focus on the change agents
Jenny Brice
Carriers of infection, change agents
Resisters, quarantine
Asleep, wake up
Possible carriers, infect them
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Error 8 - overly focused on the resisters
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Learning 9 - Include everyone! A world as access-able as a Para-Olympics village Redesign homes, schools, cities to assist inclusion Creating a culture of inclusion, integrating the other Known just as “Julie”
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Error 9
• Only include the experts (delphi)
• Or only include senior managers and executives
(strategy)
• Board does not reflect membership - AVA
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CLA - CANCER FUTURES
• One out of two will have a cancer incident by 2030
• Chaotic and confused pathways
• Medical
• Death sentence
• Focus on prevention and biomedical advances
• One stop shop, clear pathways for treatment
• Person plus community centred
• As a way of life
TODAY PREFERRED FUTURE
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What works 1. Challenge the used future
2. Scan the environment for emerging issues and weak signals
3. Don’t wait until bad times
4. Create alternative futures
5. Find the macro-pattern
6. Make the vision real
7. Link story to strategy
8. Focus on change agents
9. Who is not in the room – learn from all
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ANTICIPATORY ACTION LEARNING
• BCC and DAFF - comprehensive
• Mt Eliza executive education – CEO leadership and foresight
• Pearls of Policing – International Policing
• Malaysian higher education leadership academy – strategy and cultural change
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Deep learning processes and the challenge of political change
• BCC – vision plus scenarios plus budget discipline plus courses and workshop. Change in political leadership but “city futures” meme spread to dozens of cities and thousands of Mayors.
• DAFF – courses for scientists plus workshops plus pre-border security. Scanning continues and influence at global level even with political change
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Multiple perspectives on industry issues - four days with follow up
• Mt Eliza Executive Education
• Futures of wineries, energy, marketing, health insurance, justice, universities, airlines, airports
• Each issue gains insight from others in different industry areas
• Expertise expands instead of narrowing the future
• Action learning – insights plus presentation in
expertise areas and then practice in organization
• Thirteen years
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Pearls of Policing
• Deputy Commissioners +
• Anticipatory Action Learning projects
– Learning by doing
– Questioning the future
• Present to Commissioners
• Strategy plus capacity
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AKEPT – malaysian higher education
• 40 dvcs, deans and professors each course
• Present to each other
• Filtered to council of VCs and Minister
• Strategy plus capacity – tipping point and the new language of futures literacy
• Year three
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Only those who are able to see the invisible are able to do the impossible
Dr. Bernard Lown, developer of the defibrillator and 1985 Nobel Prize
recipient for the international physicians for the prevention of nuclear war
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