european air travel in developing countries - cbi · visitors staying at least 1 night at...

European air travel in developing countries

Focus on CBI Priority countries

May 2019

© ForwardKeys, 2019. All Rights Reserved.

Methodology.

European travel to CBI priority countries.

Focus on top 10 CBI priority countries.

European travel: DAC list of ODA recipients.

INDEX

1.

2.

3.

4.


• The total volume of travellers is an estimation based on the bookingsprocessed by the major GDS (Global Distribution Systems), flight routesand other data sources, including official air traffic statistics from keyplayers (airports, airlines, border control and immigration offices).

METHODOLOGY


• The information contained in this report refers to air travel on scheduledflights. The total traveller estimation does not include travellers arriving bymeans of transport other than regular flights; this includes charter flightsand surface transports (car, train, cruise, etc.).

• Analysis carried out based on 2019MY (May 2018 to April 2019).

• The air travel forecast for 2020MY (May 2019 to April 2020) is based oncurrent market information, considering booking and arrival patterns fromthe three previous years and current forward bookings to travel in thefollowing months, and it has been adjusted with scheduled air capacitydata.

• Developing countries: as per DAC list of ODA recipients (146); CBI prioritycountry list (24 of ODA-recipient destinations); Europe: EU-28 (28) +EFTA (4).

• Arrivals considering visitors staying at least 1 night at the destination.

METHODOLOGY

European travel to CBI Priority Countries

May 2018 to April 2019, forecast until April 2020


6

Overview: European air arrivals in CBI and ODA countries

OECD categoryNo. of

countries

European arrivals

in 2018MY

(thousands)

European

arrivals in

2019MY

(thousands)

Forecast for arrivals

in 2020MY

(thousands)

ODA recipients 143 58,503.9 64,615.6 66,673.0

CBI countries 24 11,946.4 13,650.4 14,070.4

YOY variation

2019MY Forecast 2020MY

3,1%

3,2%

14,3%

10,4%

2019MY: Arrivals from 1st May 2018 to 31st April 2019; 2020MY:

forecast for arrivals from 1st May 2019 to 31st April 2020. Visitors staying at least 1 night at destination

Ranking based on total regular air transportation

estimation; non-regular flights not included.

Distribution of arrivals in 2019MY

21%

79%

CBI countries

Rest of ODArecipients

7© ForwardKeys, 2019. All Rights Reserved.

4.697,1

2.921,8

1.350,7

1.325,3

558,0

487,5

445,4

415,2

364,4

287,8

Morocco

Egypt

Tunisia

Algeria

Kenya

Lebanon

Senegal

Jordan

Nigeria

Ghana

Arrivals in 2019MY (thousands)

CBI priority countries: Ranking of European tourist arrivals (I)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Top 1 to Top 10 destinations by European air arrivals





YOYShare of

CBI

10.1% 34.4%

40.1% 21.4%

22.0% 9.9%

-7.2% 9.7%

23.0% 4.1%

7.6% 3.6%

-2.3% 3.3%

42.6% 3.0%

1.0% 2.7%

-0.9% 2.1%

4.934,4

2.952,1

1.444,4

1.304,0

567,3

497,9

462,7

428,6

360,6

297,7

Morocco

Egypt

Tunisia

Algeria

Kenya

Lebanon

Senegal

Jordan

Nigeria

Ghana

Forecast of arrivals in 2020MY (thousands) YOY

Share of

CBI

Forecast

5.1% 35.1%

1.0% 21.0%

6.9% 10.3%

-1.6% 9.3%

1.7% 4.0%

2.1% 3.5%

3.9% 3.3%

3.2% 3.0%

-1.0% 2.6%

3.4% 2.1%

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

Share of

leisure travel

79%

83%

76%

59%

59%

62%

41%

72%

32%

28%


11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.


CBI priority countries: Ranking of European tourist arrivals (II)

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

YOYShare of

CBI

24.4% 1.6%

0.0% 1.1%

4.2% 0.7%

2.1% 0.7%

2.8% 0.4%

-8.1% 0.4%

3.6% 0.3%

-15.6% 0.2%

1.5% 0.2%

14.1% 0.1%

3.7% 0.1%

-11.8% 0.0%

-13.5% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

YOY

Share of

CBI

Forecast

5.9% 1.6%

0.5% 1.0%

2.7% 0.7%

4.0% 0.7%

2.2% 0.4%

1.7% 0.4%

5.4% 0.3%

-2.8% 0.2%

-0.7% 0.2%

-1.8% 0.1%

0.9% 0.1%

1.0% 0.0%

0.4% 0.0%

0.0% 0.0%

218,1

143,7

100,7

98,8

59,3

51,6

39,3

27,4

24,2

15,0

11,8

6,3

0,9

-

Ethiopia

Ivory Coast

Mali

Uganda

Rwanda

Burkina Faso

Guinea

Sierra Leone

Mauritania

Niger

Chad

Liberia

Libya

Palestine


230,9

144,4

103,5

102,7

60,6

52,5

41,4

26,7

24,0

14,7

11,9

6,4

0,9

-

Ethiopia

Ivory Coast

Mali

Uganda

Rwanda

Burkina Faso

Guinea

Sierra Leone

Mauritania

Niger

Chad

Liberia

Libya

Palestine

Forecast of arrivals in 2020MY (thousands)





Share of

leisure travel

34%

26%

18%

41%

33%

26%

22%

33%

33%

27%

22%

20%

55%

0%

Focus on top 10 CBI priority countries


Top 10 CBI Priority countries by European tourist arrivals

4

Algeria

3

Tunisia

8

Jordan

2

Egypt

7

Senegal

6

Lebanon

5

Kenya

9

Nigeria

10

Ghana

1

Morocco

Share of European arrivals

in CBI priority countries 34% 21% 10% 10% 4%

4% 3% 3% 3% 2%

Arrivals from European countries from

1st May 2018 to 31st April 2019Visitors staying at least 1 night at destinations



Share of European arrivals

in CBI priority countries


Top origin countries Traveller profile (shares)

Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)

Arrivals from European countries between 1st May 2018 and 31st April 2019. Visitors staying at least 1 night at destination.

Business Leisure Long Stays

Retail and other traditional TA Online TA

Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

11

Share

France 38%

Germany 11%

United Kingdom 10%

Spain 9%

Belgium 8%

1. Morocco: Top source markets and traveller profile

11% 79% 10%

67% 13% 9% 10%

16%

84%95%

3%

2%


12

1. Morocco: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

4.141,7 3.910,2 3.624,2 4.267,0 4.697,1 4.934,4

-5,6%-7,3%

17,7%10,1%

5,1%

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY 2019MY 2020MY(forecast)

Arr

ivals

(th

ousands)

Arrivals from European countries from 1st May 2014 to 31st

April 2019 and 1st May 2019 to 31st April 2020 forecast.Visitors staying at least 1 night at destination.

European travellers share

in 2019MY

34.4% of CBI Recipients



Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

13

2. Egypt: Top source markets and traveller profile

8% 83% 9%

54% 24% 13% 10%

21%

79%93%

5%

2%

Share

Germany 40%

United Kingdom 14%

Italy 12%

Czech Republic 5%

Poland 4%


14

2. Egypt: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

2.088,5 1.994,1 1.509,9 2.085,6 2.921,8 2.952,1

-4,5%

-24,3%

38,1%

40,1% 1,0%

0

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500


Arr

ivals

(th

ousands) European travellers share

in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

15

3. Tunisia: Top source markets and traveller profile

10% 76% 14%

54% 14% 17% 15%

36%

64%88% 10%

3%

Share

France 53%

Germany 16%

Belgium 6%

Italy 6%

United Kingdom 6%


16

3. Tunisia: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

1.874,7 1.401,9 944,4 1.107,4 1.350,7 1.444,4

-25,2%

-32,6%

17,3%

22,0%6,9%

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2.000

2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY 2019MY 2020MY (forecast)

Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY





Leisure driven destinations.

Dependent on one major European source market.

Experienced a rebound in tourism in the last couple of years.

Their growth is expected to decelerate.

Top 3 destinations: shared characteristics

1.

2.

3.

4.



Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

18

4. Algeria: Top source markets and traveller profile

8% 59% 33%

28% 15% 23% 34%

56%

44%

83% 13%

3%

Share

France 84%

United Kingdom 4%

Spain 3%

Belgium 3%

Germany 2%


19

4. Algeria: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

1.368,8 1.432,4 1.433,8 1.428,1 1.325,3 1.304,0

4,6% 0,1% -0,4%-7,2% -1,6%

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

20

5. Kenya: Top source markets and traveller profile

25% 59% 16%

76% 16% 8%

35% 27% 21% 18%

65%

35%

Share

United Kingdom 30%

Germany 17%

Italy 10%

France 8%

Netherlands 7%


21

5. Kenya: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

393,1 378,0 443,3 453,5 558,0 567,3

-3,8%

17,3% 2,3%

23,0% 1,7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2015MY 2016MY 2017MY 2018MY 2019MY 2020MY (forecast)

Arr

ivals

(th

ousands)

European travellers share

in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

22

6. Lebanon: Top source markets and traveller profile

11% 62% 27%

77% 19% 4%65%

35%

39% 15% 18% 29%

Share

Germany 22%

France 22%

United Kingdom 12%

Denmark 6%

Sweden 6%


23

6. Lebanon: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

355,4 392,4 416,9 453,2 487,5 497,9

10,4%6,2%

8,7%7,6% 2,1%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

24

7. Senegal: Top source markets and traveller profile

18% 41% 40%

82% 13% 5%

26% 15% 17% 42%

66%

34%

Share

France 56%

Italy 16%

Spain 11%

Belgium 6%

Germany 3%


25

7. Senegal: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

366,7 394,2 400,8 456,0 445,4 462,7

7,5% 1,7%

13,8% -2,3%3,9%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

26

8. Jordan: Top source markets and traveller profile

17% 72% 11%

49%

51%

62% 17% 9% 12%

84% 11% 5%

Share

Germany 16%

United Kingdom 15%

Italy 11%

France 11%

Spain 8%


27

8. Jordan: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

264,9 222,3 242,6 291,2 415,2 428,6

-16,1%9,1%

20,1%

42,6%3,2%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

28

9. Nigeria: Top source markets and traveller profile

31% 32% 38%

74% 16% 10%

75%

25%

22% 15% 22% 41%

Share

United Kingdom 49%

Italy 13%

Germany 11%

Spain 5%

Ireland 4%


29

9. Nigeria: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

289,4 339,8 337,0 360,6 364,4 360,6

17,4% -0,8%7,0% 1,0% -1,0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY






Booking

channel

Type of trip

Length of

stay (nights)




Corporate TA

Direct bookings

TA bookings

1 to 8 9 to 13 14 to 21 22 or more

…of which

30

10. Ghana: Top source markets and traveller profile

25% 28% 47%

72%

28%

78% 12% 10%

19% 11% 20% 51%

Share

United Kingdom 39%

Germany 16%

Italy 9%

Netherlands 9%

France 7%


31

10. Ghana: Evolution of European visitor arrivals

YOY var.

253,3 292,2 322,2 290,5 287,8 297,7

15,4%

10,3%

-9,9% -0,9%3,4%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Arr

ivals

(th


in 2019MY




European travel: DAC List of ODA Recipients

May 2018 to April 2019, forecast until April 2020


33

8,2%

14,5%

8,7%

10,4%

3,0%

2,7%

3,5%

3,2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

ODA recipients: Overview

OECD categoryNo. of

countries

European

arrivals in

2019MY

(thousands)

Share

2019MY

European arrivals

forecast in 2020MY

(thousands)

Least Developed

Countries52 4,042.8 6% 4,165.4

Lower Middle

Income Countries36 20,495.2 32% 21,043.6

Upper Middle

Income Countries58 40,077.6 62% 41,464.0

Total 146 64,615.6 100% 66,673.0

European arrivals in OECD DAC list of ODA recipients

YOY variation





2019MY Forecast 2020MY


10.686

4.934

4.510

3.696

2.952

2.822

1.877

1.832

1.444

1.370

1.357

1.304

1.296

1.280

1.233

Turkey

Morocco

Thailand

China

Egypt

India

Mexico

South Africa

Tunisia

Vietnam

Ukraine

Algeria

Indonesia

Brazil

Cuba


ODA recipients: top 30 destinations for European travellers (I)

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.


1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.


forecast for arrivals from 1st May 2019 to 31st April 2020.Visitors staying at least 1 night at destination



10.260

4.697

4.433

3.552

2.922

2.850

1.832

1.794

1.351

1.329

1.325

1.294

1.290

1.244

1.220

Turkey

Morocco

Thailand

China

Egypt

India

Mexico

South Africa

Tunisia

Indonesia

Algeria

Ukraine

Vietnam

Brazil

Cuba


3

3

Share

15.9%

7.3%

6.9%

5.5%

4.5%

4.4%

2.8%

2.8%

2.1%

2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

1.9%

1.9%


1.123

1.107

1.031

973

928

850

805

703

636

617

558

499

496

495

490

Dominican Republic

Mauritius

Maldives

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

Philippines

Albania

Serbia

Peru

Argentina

Kenya

Iran

Cape Verde

Colombia

Macedonia


1.187

1.134

1.114

914

880

879

877

717

664

620

567

556

555

517

510

Dominican Republic

Mauritius

Maldives

Pakistan

Albania

Sri Lanka

Philippines

Serbia

Peru

Argentina

Kenya

Georgia

Cape Verde

Colombia

Macedonia


ODA recipients: top 30 destinations for European travellers (II)


16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

22.

23.

24.

25.

26.

27.

28.

29.

30.


forecast for arrivals from 1st May 2019 to 31st April 2020.Visitors staying at least 1 night at destination



2

Share

1.7%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%

1.4%

1.3%

1.2%

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

0.9%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

0.8%

6


Traveller safety.

Boost connectivity.

Promote travel facilitation.

Key factors to lead travel growth

1.

2.

3.

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Annex

Glossary and Perimeter

©ForwardKeys, 2019. All rights reserved. The content and the data provided in this document are for your information and internal use only. The content is provided “as is” without any warranty as to accuracy, completeness, satisfactory quality or fitness for any

particular purpose. It is strictly forbidden to extract, reproduce, republish or publically display any content included in this document without the prior written authorization of Forward Data, SL. If you wish to use any of this content or similar data, please contact us on

[email protected] for more information about our services.

FREQUENTLY USED TERMS

ARRIVALS: refers to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a

specific time frame.

FORECAST: refers to the estimated number of airline passengers arriving at the

destination within a specific future time frame.

BUSINESS TRAVELLERS: are defined as 1) pax who made their reservations via

corporate travel agencies, 2) pax staying only during workweek days in short haul travel

and 3) solo travellers staying up to 8 nights in long-haul travel.

LONG STAYS: are defined as pax staying 22 or more nights at one destination included

in their travel itinerary.

LEISURE TRAVELLERS: are pax who don’t qualify as Business or Long stays.

VISITORS: pax staying at the destination.

DIRECT BOOKINGS: refers to air bookings sold without the intermediation of a travel

agency.

ONLINE TA: travel agencies that operate almost exclusively online.

CORPORATE TA: travel agencies primarily dedicated to corporate travel.

RETAIL TA AND OTHER TRADITIONAL TA: travel agencies that operate in traditional

ways (ie. Shops or over the phone)

DESTINATION

GLOSSARY & PERIMETER


MARKET

PERIOD & PERIMETERS

Arrivals history: from May 2014 to April 2019.

Forecast: from May 2019 to April 2020.

Length of stay: only considered travellers with return trips and overnight stay at the

destination(s).

40

Developing countries as per DAC list of ODA recipients, including 146 countries. Focus

on top 10 destinations by volume in CBI countries of interest list, which comprises 24

ODA-recipient destinations: Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Kenya, Lebanon,

Senegal, Jordan, Nigeria and Ghana.

EU-28: Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, United Kingdom, Austria, Belgium,

France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia,

Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Croatia, Cyprus, Greece, Italy,

Malta, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain. EFTA: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and

Switzerland. EU-28 & EFTA are referred to as “Europe”.

GLOSSARY & PERIMETER


41

Morocco, Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Kenya, Lebanon, Senegal, Jordan, Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Mali, Uganda, Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Sierra Leone,Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Liberia, Libya, Palestine*.

Least Developed countries:

Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Benin, Bhutan, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo (The Republic of), Djibouti, EquatorialGuinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Kiribati, Lao PDR, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal,Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, South Soudan, Sudan, Tanzania, East Timor, Uganda, Vanuatu, Yemen, Zambia, Togo, Tuvalu,Niger, Rwanda, North Korea, Kenya, Tajikistan, Zimbabwe.

Lower Middle Income countries:

Armenia, Bolivia, Cape Verde, Cameroon, Congo, El Salvador, Georgia, Guatemala, Guyana, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Micronesia, Moldova,Mongolia, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Philippines, Samoa, Sri Lanka, Swaziland, Syria, Tokelau*, Ukraine (excl. Simferopol), Uzbekistan, Vietnam,Palestine*.

Upper Middle Income countries:

Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belize, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba,Dominica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Fiji, Macedonia, Gabon, Grenada, Iran, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Panama, Peru, Saint Helena, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and theGrenadines, Serbia, Seychelles, South Africa, Turkmenistan, Uruguay, Venezuela, Wallis and Futuna Islands, Mauritius, Mexico, Montenegro, Montserrat*, Namibia, Niue,Palau, Suriname, Thailand, Tonga, Turkey, Iraq, Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Maldives.

CBI PRIORITY COUNTRY LIST

DAC LIST OF ODA RECIPIENTS

* Data not available

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