© Global Mass Transit Research

October 2017

Europe Urban Bus Market Outlook Report 2017-2030

Land Transport Authority, Singapore 1.1.2 Current market size

• The current market size of the urban bus segment in terms of volume is estimated at xxx buses operating in 75 key cities in Europe. Ofthese, approximately 2% are hybrid/electric buses.

• In terms of value, the market size of buses in Europe ranges between USD28 billion to USD37 billion (taking into account that a dieselbus costs USD300,000 and an electric/hybrid bus costs USD500,000).

• London, xxx, Paris, Istanbul and Madrid are the top five cities in terms of fleet size. These cities also have high population density andpopulation levels.

Current market size

Current market size Existing Europe Bus Market

2© Global Mass Transit Research, October 2017

Top 10 cities in terms of fleet size

Country City Fleet size (no.)

England London xxx

Russia xxx 7,900

France Paris xxx

Turkey Istanbul 5,797

Spain Madrid xxx

Russia xxx 2,965

Georgia Tbilisi xxx

Greece Athens 2,526

Italy xxx 2,522

England Manchester 2,385

1.1.3 Bus rolling stock (1/3)

Existing Europe Bus MarketBus rolling stock

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Almost all 75 cities covered in the report deploy more than one type of bus.• Diesel and biodiesel buses constitute by far the largest part of the bus fleet. A total of 64 cities deploy diesel-fuelled buses and three cities

deploy biodiesel-fuelled buses.• Electric buses are deployed in xxx cities, CNG buses in 28 cities, hybrid buses in xxx cities and hydrogen fuel cell buses in xxx cities.• A total of 7 cities deploy various other type of buses: 3 cities deploy biogas buses and 2 cities each deploy methane and battery operated

buses.• The average age of buses is about xxx years. Denmark, Finland, Ireland and the UK have the youngest bus fleets with the average age being

about 6 years.

67

xxx

28xxx

xxx 7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Diesel and biodiesel* Electric CNG Hybrid Hydrogen Other**

Distribution of bus fleet by type of fuel

Note: *Comprises three cities deploying biodiesel buses; **Other comprises methane-fuelled, biogas-fuelled and battery buses.

1.1.7 Fare systems (1/2)

Existing Europe Bus MarketFare systems

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58

xxx

37

xxx

7xxx

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tickets/ passes/ tokens/paper

tickets/magnetic strips and card

Contactless smartcards/ RFID cards

Mobile-app/ mobile ticketing (NFC andQR) and electronic wallet

SMS-based ticketing Online/electronic ticketing

Bank cards

No

. of

citi

es

Distribution of cities by type of fare media

Of the 75 cities covered in the report, xxx cities deploy more than one mode of fare payment.

• A total of 58 cities deploy magnetic-stripe/paper tickets, passes and tokens.

• Paper tickets are the most common fare media. This is followed by contactless smartcards and radio-frequency identification (RFID)cards, which are deployed in xxx cities.

• Mobile-based ticketing is gaining prominence. It includes SMS-based tickets or the use of mobile applications (app) downloaded onsmartphones.

• Use of electronic wallets and near field communication (NFC)-enabled mobile phones is still small and has the potential to grow.

• SMS-based ticketing has been deployed in xxx cities, followed by online/electronic ticketing (7 cities).

• The use of bank cards was found in very few cities (xxx).

Fare systems

1.1.8 Key project initiatives to promote buses (1/2)

Key project initiatives to promote buses

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Project Description

Wireless Bus Stop Charging

• The project is funded by the xxx.• Its aim is to implement, test and evaluate the potential of wireless charging for buses in city traffic to reduce

emissions, improve energy efficiency and decrease fossil-fuel dependence through electrification.• The project partners include xxx, Stockholm's Public Transport Authority SL, energy utility company

Vattenfall, and the municipality of Södertälje.

xxx in Gothenburg

• In June 2017, partners in the xxx project announced plans to expand electric bus operations in Gothenburg.• From June 2018, two high-capacity electric buses will start operating on Route 16.• Gothenburg has deployed xxx electric buses on Route 55 since 2015. The tests were originally scheduled to end

in 2018, but now the trial is being extended with additional vehicles and the test period will continue to xxx.• New charging stations will be built at xxx and xxx Hospital.• The project involves testing solutions in automation, such as automatic Bus Stop Docking and bus platooning

whereby buses run close behind one other in long trains in urban traffic.

European Bus System of the Future 2 (EBSF-2)

• The project is led by UITP and co-funded by the xxx.• EBSF-2 project (May 2015 – April 2018) capitalises on the results of EBSF-1 (September 2008 - April 2013).• EBSF_2 aims to develop a new-generation urban bus systems through new vehicle technologies and

infrastructures in combination with operational best practices.• It tests operating scenarios within several European bus networks and improves image of the bus.

xxxx

• It aimed to achieve full commercialisation of hydrogen powered fuel cell buses.• It was a public-private partnership (xxx partners from eight countries) and received substantial funding from

the xxx.• The project was completed in December 2016 at an investment of EURxxx million.

Key projects initiatives

Existing Europe Bus Market

1.1.9 Funding and finance (1/2)

City ProjectInvestment (EUR

million)Sources of funds

Brussels, BelgiumRestructuring the bus network; developing new metro and tram lines; acquiring vehicles;constructing depots

5,200 over 10 years (2015-2025)

Government of the Brussels Capital Region

Dublin, Ireland xxx 1,000 National Transport Authority

St Petersburg, RussiaAt least 50% of the bus fleet to be fuelled by compressed natural gas (CNG) by 2023

xxx City government to provide EUR280 million

West Midlands, England

Increasing bus patronage by 5%; launching integrated ticketing incorporating intelligent mobility policy; improving on-board facilities such as seating, next stop announcements and Wi-Fi

170 over the period 2017 to 2021

xxx

Lisbon, Portugal xxx80.6 between 2015 and 2017

xxx

Examples of funding for bus projects

Existing Europe Bus MarketFunding and finance

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• Local and national governments are the main sources of funds for bus procurement and bus system improvement projects.• Other important sources of funds are the European Investment Bank (EIB), European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

and European Union funding programmes.

1.2.4 Recent fundings (1/4)

Recent fundings

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Recent Developments

Country City Description of projectFunds provided

(EUR million)Funding authority

Month and year of funding

Fleet

Russia xxxHave 50% of the bus fleet fuelled by compressed natural gas (CNG) by 2023

xxx City government xxx

Latvia Riga xxx 60.00 xxx July 2017

Georgia Tbilisi xxx 34.00 xxx 2016

Hungary xxx

Purchase of 4 electric urban mini buses, 23 low-floor urban solo buses, and 14 low-floor urban articulated buses

xxxHungarian government's Modern Towns' Programme (MVP)

Xxx

Czech Republic

Brno xxx xxx EU xxx

Italy Milan xxx 14.00 xxx 2017

Lithuania xxxPurchase of 40 trolleybuses by 2019 at a cost of EUR15.82 million

xxx EU xxx

Ukraine Vinnytsia Purchase of 40 trolleybuses 8.00 European Investment Bank (EIB) November 2016

Recent funding in fleet projects is around EUR465 million in xxx countries. Of this, the maximum funds were received in xxx, where the citygovernment invested EUR297.7 to procure CNG buses. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will provide EURxxxmillion to Tbilisi and xxx and xxx will provide over EUR30 million to xxx, Vilnius and xxx.

Key recent fundings

1.3.2 Market outlook

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93,882

xxx

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

115,000

2017 2030

No. of buses

Market size growth (in volume)

Market outlook

• Of the 75 cities covered in the report, xxx cities have firm plans to procure a total of 16,956 buses(diesel, electric, hybrid, CNG, hydrogen, biogas, etc.) by 2030.

• Of the total buses planned to be procured, contracts for 15,469 buses are yet to be awarded. In terms of value, this translates into anopportunity of USD4.6 billion-USD6.2 billion.

• In terms of volume, the market size is expected to increase to xxx buses, recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of xxx% by2030.

• In terms of value, the market size is expected to increase to xxx billion by 2030.

• Majority of the procurements are driven by the emphasis on deployment of clean buses, preferably those compliant with Euro 5 or Euro6 emission standards.

xxx

USD28 billion-USD37 billion

xxxx

2017 2030

Market size growth (in value)

Market outlook Outlook and Opportunities

1.3.3 Upcoming bus-based projects

Outlook and OpportunitiesUpcoming bus-based projects

9© Global Mass Transit Research, October 2017

Country City Category Details

Netherlands xxx Rolling stock• In May 2016, public transport company xxx ordered 10 VDL Citeas SLFA electric buses from

VDL Bus & Coach BV for the xxx.

Northern Ireland

Belfast xxx • In xxx, the xxx revealed plans to commence service on the Belfast BRT by xxx.

Spain xxxFunding and finance

• In July 2017, the xxx allocated EUR40 million over a four-year funding programme for the MetroGuagua BRT.

• The central government will disburse EURxxx million in 2017, EUR15 million in 2018, EURxxxmillion in 2019 and EUR million in 2020.

• In February 2017, xxx received a 20-year loan of EUR50 million from the xxx for the MetroGuagua BRT.

England London xxx

• City of London has unveiled plans to develop a BRT corridor by xxx at a cost of USD500 million.

• The BRT project will be funded by the xxx.• The BRT corridor will span 24 km and cover 35 stations. It will extend to all four corners of

the city. A fleet of xxx high-frequency buses is planned to be deployed. The fleet may be electric or a diesel-electric hybrid.

• France, UK and Netherlands are leading BRT development in the region, accounting for around xxx % of the total

network. However, Turkey’s Istanbul BRT records the highest average daily ridership (xxx passengers).

• A total of 22 cities in France have operational BRT corridors, which together witness an average daily ridership of over 468,919 passengers.

In terms of length, the longest networks are in Paris, Douai and Rouen.

• A total of xxx cities in the UK have operational BRT corridors, which together witness an average daily ridership of over 179,193 passengers.

In terms of length, the longest networks are in xxx.

Current scenario

Opportunities