Europe towards 2030: Territorial Challenges Ahead

Andreu Ulied, MCRIT / Roberto Camagni, POLIMIESPON Scenarios and Vision project

REGI Committee of European Parliament25 June 2013 Brussels

Consortium

To develop a Vision for the Europen territory for 2050 involving the 31 countries in the ESPON Monitoring Committee, and relevant stakeholders at European, national and regional level.

Goal

Five Steps Methodology

Forecast Models

Demography

MULTIPOLES Cohort-component, hierarchical, multiregional, supranational model of population dynamics (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2  IOM

Economy MASST3 Econometric: social, macroeconomic andTerritorial (up to 2030)

ESPON at NUTS2 POLIMI

TransportMOSAIC Integrated modal split and traffic assignment based on TRANSTOOLS OD trip matrices(up to 2030)

EU27 at NUTS2 MCRIT

Land-useMETRONAMICA Spatial and dynamic land use model that Uses constrained cellular automata to allocate land-uses (up to 2050)

EU27 at Cells 1 km2 RIKS

IntegratedSASI Dynamic System linked to transport networks(up to 2050)

ESPON and Western Balkans at NUTS3

S&W

• What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?

• More Regional disparities?• Reoriented Globalisation?• Further Spatial Polarisation?

• How could be the Vision for Europe in 2050? •

• A “New Generation” of Cohesion policies is needed?

Questions proposed for discussion:

The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

GDP Growth 2008-2030 (Baseline) by MASST3

GDP a.a.: 1,89 %45 regions bellow 1,00 %

GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

IMFMASST3

GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

IMF

MASST3

Population Change 2010-2030

Population: from 514 to 530 inh.

Population ageing 2010-2030

Population > 65 years: from 17 % to 24 %

Total Employment Change 2010-2030

Employment a.a.: 1,59 %

Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030

The Crisis Aftermath... + Reoriented Globalisation?

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Germany Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)

EUROSTAT

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spain Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

Foreign Investments of EU companies

EUROSTAT

Spain UK

Germany

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)

Japan Offshore financial centers

Russia United States

Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)

France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)

Japan Offshore financial centers

Russia United States

Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)

France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany

France

UK

The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?

Source : DREWRY, 2008

America Asia

13,3 MTEU

6,7 MTEU

20 MTEU

2,2 MTEU

2,2 MTEU4,4 MTEU

13,3 MTEU

5,1 MTEU

18,4 MTEU

Europe

World maritime container traffic. 2008*

Top 10 ports 2009

European Gateways: Port and Airports

Road and Rail European Transport Networks

Rail Roads

Analysis of the relative interest of different links (potential traffic increases per cost)

1) Moderate Economic Growth…

2) Increasing Regional Gaps…

3) More Jobs and Lower Salaries...

4) More Labour Mobility in Europe…

5) Population Ageing…

6) Increasingly diversified Globalisation…

7) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…

Key Baseline Conclusions...

1. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?

2. What could be the Vision for European in 2050?

3. A “New Generation” of Cohesion Policies is needed?

Second Question...

Exploratory Scenarios for 2010-2050

Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios

Framework conditions

Baseline

1Economic

decline

2Technicaladvance

3Energy/Climatecosts

Promotion of global regions A A1 A2 A3

Promotion of large urban regions B B1 B2 B3

Promotion of rural and peripheral regions

C C1 C2 C3

GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)

... Territorial A, B and C Strategies have marginal impacts on growth

Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051

2007 Crisis

...Territorial A, B and C Strategies have significant impacts on cohesion

National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051

Polycentrism

• Polycentric territorial development

• Integrated development in cities, rural and specific regions

• Integration in cross-border, transnational & neighbouring regions

• Regions as places with global competitiveness

• Accessibility and connectivity to open up regional potentials

• Landscape and cultural values as assets

• Ecological Sustainability and Climate Change Adaptation

Which Strategies are to be considered for the 2050 Territorial Vision?

According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004:

"It is a different country now. That's also because European contributions"

How Cohesion policies could be reformed?

• + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment

• + Place-based focus towards endogenous development

• + Sensitivity to economic cycles

• + Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment

• + Land-Use instruments in vulnerable areas

• + Investments in Neighboring Countries

How Cohesion policies should be reformed in the long-run?

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit

-and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information:

www.espon.euwww.et2050.eu (working documents)