europa 100% erneuerbar · 2016-02-25 · 6 europa 100% erneuerbar christian breyer...
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EUROPA 100% ERNEUERBAR
Christian Breyer, Otto Koskinen and Dmitrii BogdanovLappeenranta University of Technology, Finland
14. Nationale Photovoltaik-Tagung, organised by Swissolar
Bern, February 22-23, 2016
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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Europe’s RE potential
• Huge renewable resources of Europe:
• Perfect wind conditions around North Sea region
• Very good wind conditions and solar irradiation in Central Europe
• High existing hydro capacities (dams, run-of-river, PHS) provide flexibility
• Further flexibility from sustainable biomass resources (municipal waste and residues
from agricultural and forestry industries)
• Decarbonizing energy sector means electrification of services: growing electricity
demand
• Promising possibility to build cost competitive independent 100% RE system using
current technologies
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Current status of the power plant mixCourtesy of Javier Farfan
Key insights:
• new installations dominated by
renewables
• nuclear as niche technology since years
• still some new coal capacities
• overall trend very positive
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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Key Objective
Definition of an optimally structured energy system based on 100% RE supply
• optimal set of technologies, best adapted to the availability of the regions’ resources,
• optimal mix of capacities for all technologies and every sub-region of Eurasia,
• optimal operation modes for every element of the energy system,
• least cost energy supply for the given constraints.
LUT Energy model, key features
• linear optimization model
• hourly resolution
• multi-node approach
• flexibility and expandability
Input data
• historical weather data for: solar irradiation, wind
speed and hydro precipitation
• available sustainable resources for biomass and geothermal energy
• synthesized power load data
• gas and water desalination demand
• efficiency/ yield characteristics of RE plants
• efficiency of energy conversion processes
• capex, opex, lifetime for all energy resources
• min and max capacity limits for all RE resources
• nodes and interconnections configuration
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MethodologyFull system
Renewable energy sources
• PV rooftop
• PV ground-mounted
• PV single-axis tracking
• Wind onshore/ offshore
• Hydro run-of-river
• Hydro dam
• Geothermal energy
• CSP
• Waste-to-energy
• Biogas
• Biomass
Electricity transmission
• node-internal AC transmission
• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options
• Batteries
• Pumped hydro storage
• Adiabatic compressed air storage
• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat
• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis
• Methanation
• CO2 from air
• Gas storage
Energy Demand
• Electricity
• Water Desalination
• Industrial Gas
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Scenarios assumptions
Key data
• ~675 mio population (2030)
• ~4000 TWh electricity demand (2030)
• ~607 GW peak load (2030)
• ~6.49 mio km2 area
• ~14.7 bil m3/a water desalination demand (2030)
20 regions
NO: Norway
DK: Denmark
SE: Sweden
FI: Finland
BLT: Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania
PL: Poland
CRS: Czech
Republic, Slovakia
AUH: Austria,
Hungary
CH: Switzerland
DE: Germany
BNL: Belgium,
Netherlands,
Luxembourg
FR: France
BRI: Ireland, UK
IS: Iceland
IBE: Portugal, Spain
IT: Italy
BKN-W: Slovenia,
Croatia, Bosnia &
Herzegovina, Serbia,
Kosovo, Montenegro,
Macedonia, Albania
BKN-E: Romania,
Bulgaria, Greece
UA: Ukraine, Moldova
TR: Turkey
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Scenarios assumptionsGrid configurations
Assumption
Scenarios
Regional-wide
open trade
Area-wide
open trade
Area-wide open trade
Des-Gas
PV self-
consumptionX X X
Water Desalination X
Industrial Gas X
• Regional-wide open trade
• (no interconnections
between regions/ countries)
• Area-wide open trade
• (country-wide HVDC grids
are interconnected)
• Area-wide open trade with
water desalination and
industrial gas production
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Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)
TechnologyCapex
[€/kW]
Opex fix
[€/kW]
Opex var
[€/kWh]
Lifetime
[a]
PV rooftop 813 12 0 35
PV fixed-tilted 550 8 0 35
PV single-axis 620 9 0 35
Wind onshore 1000 20 0 25
Hydro Run-of-River 2560 115.2 0.005 60
Hydro dam 1650 66 0.003 60
Geothermal energy 4938 89 0 30
Water electrolysis 380 13 0.001 30
Methanation 234 5 0 30
CO2 scrubbing 356 14 0.0013 30
CCGT 775 19 0.002 30
OCGT 475 14 0.011 30
Biomass PP 2500 175 0.001 30
Wood gasifier CHP 1500 20 0.001 40
Biogas CHP 370 14.8 0.001 20
MSW incinerator 5240 235.8 0.007 20
Steam turbine 700 14 0 30
TechnologyCapex
[€/(m3∙a)]
Opex fix
[€/(m3∙a)]
Opex var
[€/(m3∙a)]
Lifetime
[a]
Water desalination 2.23 0.096 0 30
Generation costs
Technology Energy/Power Ratio [h]
Battery 6
PHS 8
A-CAES 100
Gas storage 80*24
Efficiency [%]
Battery 90
PHS 85
A-CAES 83
Gas storage 100
Water electrolysis 84
CO2 scrubbing 78
Methanation 77
CCGT 58
OCGT 43
Geothermal energy 24
MSW incinerator 34
Biogas CHP 40
Steam turbine 42
CSP collector 51
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TechnologyCapex
[€/kWh]
Opex fix
[€/(kWh∙a)]
Opex var
[€/kWh]
Lifetime
[a]
Battery 150 10 0.0002 15
PHS 70 11 0.0002 50
A-CAES 31 0.4 0.0012 40
Gas storage 0.05 0.001 0 50
TechnologyCapex
[€/(m3∙h)]
Opex fix
[€/(m3∙h∙a)]
Opex var
[€/(m3∙h)]
Lifetime
[a]
Water storage 65 1 0 50
TechnologyCapex
[€/(m3∙h∙km)]
Opex fix
[€/(m3∙h∙km∙a)]
Energy
consumption
[kWh/(m3∙h∙km)]
Lifetime
[a]
Horizontal pumping 15 2.3 0.0004 30
Vertical pumping 23 2.4 0.0036 30
TechnologyCapex
[€/(kW∙km)]
Opex fix
[€/(kW∙km∙a)]
Opex var
[€/kW]
Lifetime
[a]
Transmission line 0.612 0.0075 0 50
Technology Capex [€/kW] Opex fix [€/(kW∙a)] Opex var [€/kW] Lifetime [a]
Converter station 180 1.8 0 50
Scenarios assumptionsFinancial assumptions (year 2030)
Storage and transmission costs
WACC = 7%
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Scenarios assumptionsFull load hours
Data: based on NASA (Stackhouse P.W., Whitlock C.H., (eds.), 2009. SSE release 6.0)
reprocessed by DLR (Stetter D., 2012. Dissertation, Stuttgart)
FLH of region computed as weighed average of regional sub-areas (about 50 km x 50 km each):
0%-20% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.3
20%-30% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.2
30%-50% best “sub-areas” of region – 0.1
RegionPV fixed-tilted
FLH
PV single-axis
FLH
CSP
FLH
Wind
FLH
NO 882 1112 980 3525
DK 1070 1346 1241 4500
SE 985 1229 1164 2631
FI 986 1288 1261 2642
BLT 1063 1352 1250 3458
PL 1065 1269 1046 3041
IBE 1624 2095 2071 2620
FR 1302 1573 1380 3169
BNL 1030 1230 990 3893
BRI 956 1124 864 4623
DE 1053 1226 978 3355
CRS 1098 1292 1165 2550
AUH 1174 1379 1165 2056
BKN-W 1319 1582 1374 1725
BKN-E 1380 1680 1474 1953
IT 1439 1772 1625 2006
CH 1250 1488 1211 1772
TR 1593 2022 1901 2441
UA 1219 1484 1252 2658
IS 819 1093 913 4865
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Scenarios assumptionsPV and Wind LCOE (weather year 2005, cost year 2030)
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Scenarios assumptionsGeneration profile (area integrated)
PV generation profileAggregated area profile computed using earlier
presented weighed average rule.
Wind generation profile Aggregated area profile computed using
earlier presented weighed average rule.
Key insights:
• Seasonal complementary of PV and wind
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Scenarios assumptionsLoad (area aggregated)
Total load (2030)
Synthesized load curves for each region
Total load (2030)
- including the impact of prosumers (less load)
Key insights:
• PV self-consumption reduces the peak load and the
gradients in the system
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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Results
Area integrated:
LCOW: 0.8 €/m3
LCOG: 0.070 €/kWhth,gas
2030 Scenario
Total
LCOE
Primary
LCOELCOC LCOS LCOT
Total ann.
cost
Total
CAPEX
RE
capacities
Generated
electricity
[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]
Region-wide 0.066 0.047 0.003 0.016 0.000 278 2322 2085 4656
Area-wide† 0.064 0.047 0.002 0.012 0.003 255 2316 1868 4356Area-wide
Des-Gas*,** 0.055 0.043 0.001 0.007 0.003 307 2690 2342 5658
Total
LCOE***
prosumer
LCOE
primary
prosumer
LCOS
prosumer
Total ann.
Cost
prosumer
Total
CAPEX
prosumer
PV
capacities
prosumer
Generated
electricity
prosumer
[€/kWh] [€/kWh] [€/kWh] [bn €] [bn €] [GW] [TWh]
0.095 0.057 0.038 54 570 639 787
* additional demand 95% gas and
5% desalination
** LCOS does not include the cost
for the industrial gas (LCOG)
*** integrated scenario, fully
included in table above† older simulation, slightly
different assumptions
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ResultsSelf-Consumption – Europe super-region area integrated
2030
RES COM IND
Electricity price [€/kWh] 0.233 0.201 0.170
PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.036 0.047 0.047
Self-consumption PV LCOE [€/kWh] 0.054 0.063 0.061
Self-consumption PV and Battery LCOE [€/kWh] 0.090 0.102 0.093
Self-consumption LCOE [€/kWh] 0.089 0.102 0.093
Benefit [€/kWh] 0.144 0.099 0.077
Installed capacities RES COM IND
PV [GW] 243 194 202
Battery storage [GWh] 308 265 240
Generation RES COM IND
PV [TWh] 295 240 252
Battery storage [TWh] 83 71 65
Excess [TWh] 88 53 50
Utilization RES COM IND
Self-consumption of generated PV electricity [%] 67 75 77
Self-coverage market segment [%] 15 14 12
Self-coverage operators [%] 77 71 59
Source (electricity prices): Gerlach A., Werner Ch., Breyer Ch., 2014. Impact of Financing Cost on
Global Grid-Parity Dynamics till 2030, 29th EU PVSEC, Amsterdam, September 22-26
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Independent sectors Integrated sectors
Tota
l ele
ctri
city
g
ener
atio
n R
E [
TW
h]
Results†
Benefits of electricity and industrial gas sectors integration – Area-wide desalination gas
Key insights:
• integration benefits: decrease in total
electricity demand and total annual
levelized cost
• decrease in total electricity curtailment
losses of 27.2% (49 TWh absolute) and in
total capex by 8.7% (293 bn€ absolute)
Ind Gas Sector
Desalination Sector
Power Sector
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Independent sectors Integrated sectors
Tota
l an
nu
al c
ost
[bn
€]
Ind Gas Sector
Desalination Sector
Power Sector
8.7% relative integration benefit
32 bn€ absolute integration benefit
5.9 % relative integration benefit
371 TWh absolute integration benefit
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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ResultsImport / Export (year 2030) – Area integrated
Key insights:
• Storage usage very limited,
only 6% of total demand
provided by storage
• Electricity trade limited, only
14% traded among regions
• Cost optimum includes 4%
curtailed energy
• Net Importers: Sweden,
Finland, Benelux, AUH, Balkan-
E, Switzerland, Ukraine
• Net Exporters: Norway,
Denmark, Baltic, British Isles,
France, Balkan-W, Turkey
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade total
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade prosumers
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Region-wide open trade total
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Area integrated total
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Area integrated total
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ResultsTotal LCOE (year 2030) – Area integrated total
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ResultsInstalled Capacities
2030
ScenarioWind PV
Hydro
RoR
Hydro
dams Biogas Biomass Waste Geothermal Battery PHS CAES PtG GT
[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] [GWel] [GW]
Region-wide 727 1061 141 56 68.9 50.1 7.9 6.4 798 671 3037 79 229
Integrated 1069 1142 141 54 54.9 38.0 7.7 6.7 758 568 0.0 197 55
2030
Scenario
PV
fixed-tilted
PV
single-axis
PV
prosumers
PV
total
Battery
system
Battery
prosumers
Battery
total
[GW] [GW] [GW] [GW] [GWh] [GWh] [GWh]
Region-wide 170.2 283.1 607.4 1061 39.7 757.9 798
Integrated 92.9 441.3 607.4 1142 0.0 757.9 758
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Results†
Resource utilization – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas
PV total capacity
1142 GW, +46%
Wind total capacity
1069 GW, +50%
Wind total capacity
715 GW
Area-wide open trade
PV total capacity
781 GW
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
Key insights:
• demand for offshore wind in North Sea region, significant capacity additions
• unused solar PV potential lower in cost than wind offshore
• restiance against new power lines will push solar PV in the system
• impact on PtG/ PtX not yet clear
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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ResultsRegions Electricity Capacities – area-wide open trade
Key insights:
• PV plays a major role in Area-wide desalination
gas scenario for Central and Southern Europe
• PV single-axis and wind are the main sources of
electricity for water desalination and industrial
gas production
• resistance against new grids could drastically
increase the PV share
Key insights:
• Area-wide scenario shows small share of system PV
capacities in most of the regions, prosumers share
is significant
• Sunny conditions in Iberia lead to significant share
of PV single-axis
• >50% wind share in Baltic, Denmark, British Isles,
France, Poland, Ukraine
Area-wide open trade desalination gasArea-wide open trade†
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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ResultsStorages
Storage capacities Throughput of storages Full cycles per year
2030 ScenarioBattery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas Battery* PHS A-CAES Gas
[TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhel] [TWhth] [-] [-] [-] [-]
Region-wide 0.851 0.560 1.270 241 229 114 30 708 269 204 23.3 3.0
Integration 0.850 0.449 0.0 119 230 88 0 101 270 196 - 0.9
Thermal energy storage share is negligible because of climate conditions being
unfavorable for CSP power plants and lack of competitiveness of TES with other
storage technologies.
* total
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ResultsStorages Capacities – area-wide and area-wide open trade desalination gas
Key insights:
• Excess energy for area-wide open trade desalination gas lower than with independent sectors (from 141 TWh
to 132 TWh, also relative shares of excess energy decrease from 3.2% to 2.2% of total generation).
• Existing PHS storages play significant role
• Relative share of prosumers’ batteries increase significantly in integration scenario in Northern Europe
• Absolute storage capacities increase in Southern Europe and decrease in Central and Northern Europe when
sectors are integrated
Area-wide open trade†
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
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ResultsStorages Operation – area integrated
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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ResultsNet importer region – Benelux (area integrated)
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ResultsBalancing region – Italy (area integrated)
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ResultsNet exporter region – Turkey (area integrated)
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ResultsEnergy flow of the System of area-wide open trade desalination gas (2030)
Key insights:
• Wind is the major energy source with supply share of 45.2%
• PV generation share 27.0%
• A-CAES and gas storages are substituted by flexible demand of gas
synthesis and geographic balancing by grids
• Batteries used also as input to PtG as part of least cost solution
41
Comparison to other regionsRegions LCOE
total
region-
wide
LCOE
total area-
wide
Integrati
on
benefit **
storage
s*
grids
interreg
ional
trade*
Curtailm
ent
PV
prosum
ers*
PV
system
*
Wind * Biomass * hydro*
[€/MWh] [€/MWh] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%] [%]
Northeast Asia 77 68 6.0% 10% 26% 6% 14.3% 27.5% 48.2% 7.8% 7.2%
Southeast Asia 67 64 9.5% 8% 3% 3% 7.2% 36.8% 22.0% 22.9% 7.6%
Eurasia 63 53 23.2% <1% 13% 3% 3.8% 9.9% 58.1% 13.0% 15.4%
South America 62 55 7.8% 5% 12% 5% 12.1% 28.0% 10.8% 28.0% 21.1%
Europe 66 64† 8.7% 3% 15% 3% 15.3% 11.7% 45.2% 7.2% 8.2%
Sub-Saharan Africa 61 58 16.2% 4% 8% 4% 16.2% 34.1% 31.1% 7.8% 8.2%
India/ SAARC 72 67 5.9% 22% 23% 3% 6.2% 43.5% 32.1% 10.9% 5.4%
Key insights:
• 100% RE is highly competitive
• least cost for high match of seasonal supply and demand
• PV share typically around 40% (range 14-50%)
• hydro and biomass limited the more sectors are integrated
• flexibility options limit storage to 10% and it will further
decrease with heat and mobility sector integration
• most generation locally within sub-regions (grids 2-26%)
* Integrated scenario, supply share
** annualised costs
sources: see www.researchgate.net/profile/Christian_Breyer
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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LCOE of alternatives are NO alternative
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon
Technologies: What is the Cheapest option, Berlin
Key insights
• PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option
• nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive
• nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies
• high value added for PV-Wind due to higher capacities needed
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Agenda
Motivation
Methodology and Data
Results for the Energy System
Results for Hourly Operation
Alternatives
Summary
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Summary
• 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable in Europe!
• super grid interconnection further decreases average cost of electricity of the total
area from 66 €/MWh (country/region-only)
• integration benefit of gas and desalination is about 6-9% (generation and cost )
due to more efficient usage of storage and flexibility options
• share of wind is about 55%, PV is about 25%
• despite an upper limit 50% higher than the current capacity for hydro dams and
RoR, in all the considered scenarios PV and wind are more profitable technologies
according to the availability of the regions’ resources
• 100% RE system is more cost competitive than a nuclear-fossil option!
Thanks for your attention …
… and to the team!
The authors gratefully acknowledge the public financing of Tekes, the Finnish Funding Agency for Innovation, for the ‘Neo-Carbon Energy’ project under the number 40101/14.
Back-up Slides
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ResultsEnergy flow of the System of region-wide open trade scenario (2030)
Key insights:
• PV generation share 30.5%, Wind is the major energy source (35.0%)
• Throughput of Battery is equal to A-CAES storage and PHS throughput
combined
• Throughput of Gas storage is over 4 times higher than A-CAES throughput
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Results†
Energy flow of the System of area-wide open trade (2030)
Key insights:
• PV generation share 19.9%, Wind is the major energy source (45.6%)
• A-CAES storages are not used
• Gas storage is still feasible, gas storage throughput -58% compared to
region-wide scenario
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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Results†
Resource utilization – area-wide open trade and area-wide desalination gas
Key insights:
• New hydro Run-of-River is not competitive to PV and wind
• No increase in hydro RoR capacities for the area-wide open trade desalination-gas
Area-wide open trade
Hydro dam
total capacity
52 GW
Hydro RoR
total capacity
141 GW
Area-wide open trade desalination gas
Hydro dam
total capacity
54 GW
Hydro RoR
total capacity
141 GW
† older simulation, slightly different assumptions
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ResultsHourly profile: Finland (January, area integrated)
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Wind & Temperature correlation
Temperature dependence of wind
power production and load in
Finland 1999 – 2002
Wind power production and load in
Nordic countries as a function of
temperatures in Finland in 2000 - 2001
WILMAR Fluctuations and predictability of wind and hydropower, 2004
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Sustainable biomass resources
Region
Biomass potential [TWhLHV/a]
Solid wasteSolid
biomass
Biogas
sourcesTotal
NO 2.7 8.5 1.4 12.5
DK 3.1 15.2 28.4 46.6
SE 71.7 48.3 8.4 128.5
FI 60.6 36.5 14.8 112.0
BLT 22.6 24.5 6.4 53.5
PL 29.6 65.9 144.7 240.3
IBE 39.2 47.3 93.2 179.8
FR 37.7 148.0 149.5 335.2
BNL 16.4 8.3 80.1 104.8
BRI 27.1 36.7 114.5 178.4
DE 75.7 122.1 77.8 275.7
CRS 26.0 37.0 35.5 98.5
AUH 27.9 57.0 39.4 124.3
BKN-W 2.9 21.4 5.4 29.8
BKN-E 24.2 82.6 52.2 159.0
IT 22.0 38.6 85.0 145.6
CH 2.9 5.6 2.2 10.7
TR 13.9 41.3 6.4 61.5
UA 5.8 42.9 6.9 55.7
IS 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
Total area 512.2 887.8 952.3 2352.3
Solid waste:
Municipal used wood + industrial
residues
Solid biomass:
Straw + Wood residues from
forestry
Biogas:
biowaste + excrements
References:
Biomass Futures – Atlas of EU biomass potentials
2030 (2012)
DBFZ - Regionale und globale räumliche Verteilung
von Biomassepotenzialen 2020 (2009)
Sustainability criteria applied:
-80% GHG compared to fossil (iLUC included)
No biomass from areas of high biodiversity or high
carbon stock, no energy crops