1. 1860 Methane Concentration 1840in Atmosphere, ppb 1820 1800 1780 1760 1740 1720 1700 16801980 1990 2000 2010 2020YearUnconventional Development of Shale Gas: A CritiqueA. R. IngraffeaDwight C. Baum ProfessorCornell UniversityandPhysicians, Scientists, and Engineers forSustainable and Healthy Energy, Inc.Committee on the Environment, Public Health andFood SafetyCommittee on Industry, Research and EnergyJune 26, 2012 1

2. DRAFT REPORTon the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities(2011/2308(INI)Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food SafetyRapporteur: Bogusaw SonikB.whereas the Energy Roadmap 2050 identifies that gas will be critical for thetransformation of the energy system by helping to reduce emissions; whereas theCommission notes that shale gas and other UFF will become a very important newsource of supply in or around Europe;C.whereas the two main techniques deployed in unleashing the UFFpotential, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, have been used for decades;3.Stresses that prevailing expert opinion indicates that the inherent risks of UFFextraction, most of which are common to conventional fossil fuel extraction, could becontained through pre-emptive measures, including proper planning, testing, use ofnew technologies, best practices and continuous data collection, monitoring andreporting;7. Notes the importance of the work undertaken by reputableinstitutions, notably the International Energy Agency (IEA), to prepare acomprehensive Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference document on hydraulicfracturing; calls on the Commission to cooperate with the Member States, the IEA andindustry associations to this end; 2 3. DRAFT REPORT on the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities (2011/2308(INI) Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Rapporteur: Bogusaw Sonik13. Believes that, given the depth (over 3km) at which hydraulic fracturing takesplace, the main concern regarding groundwater contamination is well integrity and thequality of casing and cementing;19.Notes that multi-horizontal-well drilling pads minimise land use andlandscape disturbance;3 4. DRAFT REPORTon the industrial, energy and other aspects of shale gas and oil(2011/2309(INI) Committee on Industry, Research and EnergyRapporteur: Niki Tzavela Transition to a decarbonised economy 8.Is of the view that developing shale gas in the EU will help achieve the EUs goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels, which is the basis of the Energy Roadmap for 2050; 9.Agrees with the Commission that gas will be critical for the transformation of the energy system, as stated in the above-mentioned Roadmap, since it represents a quick and cost-efficient way of reducing reliance on other, dirtier fossil fuels, thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions; believes that shale gas could, as a "bridge fuel", play a critical role in this, particularly in those Member States that use large amounts of coal in power generation;I submit that the statements which I have highlighted are questionable. And, there is NO mention of impact of shale gas developmenton climate change.4 5. Unconventional Development ofNatural Gas from Shale Formations Is Spatially Intense: You Do NOT YetKnow What It Will Look Like 5 6. Unconventional Development of Natural Gasfrom Shale Formations Is Spatially IntenseBarnett TX, a MATURE play of ~ 15,000 wellsMarcellus Wells Drilled 2008 195 2009 768 2010 1454 2011 1937 2012 300+ TOTAL ~ 5,000Estimated # of MarcellusWells at Buildout:100,0001 km In large U.S. plays, shale gas development has only just begun6 7. Spatial Intensity Via Multiple, Horizontal Wellsfrom Clusters of PadsFrom Cody Teff, Shell Appalachia, WELL CONSTRUCTION PRACTICES IN THE MARCELLUS 7 8. Example of Spatially Intense Development:Dallas/Fort Worth Airport Property, Barnett Shale Play 53 pads on 18,076 acres, 30 square miles Each red line is a well Each red dot is a pad Almost complete coverage Patchwork, mostly ideal units One leasor, One developer 8 9. An Industrial-Ideal Pad/Well Buildout Scenario 9 10. Clustering of Pads in Tioga County, PA 10 11. Pads Will Be Constructed Regardless of TerrainPhotos Courtesyof Bob Donnan 11 12. In the large U.S plays, shale gas development has only just begun,and it requires large number of large,multi-well, clustered pads andsignificant ancillary infrastructure 12 13. It Is My View that Developing ShaleGas in the EU Will NOT Help Achieve the EUs Goal of ReducingGreenhouse Gas Emissions by 80-95%by 2050 Compared to 1990 Levels 13 14. CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere: NOAA Seasonal fluctuation ~ ~ 2 ppm increase per year 2 ppm increase per year 450 ppm a a tipping point 450 ppm tipping point We have about 30 years We have about 30 years 14 15. Measured Methane Concentration in the Atmosphere: NOAA 1860 1840 1820Methane Concentration, ppb 1800 1780 1760All Data in December of YearUncertainty about 10 ppb 1740 1720 1700 1680 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052010 2015Yearftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/ch4/in-situ/mlo/ch4_mlo_surface-insitu_1_ccgg_month.txt15 16. Methane Is a Much More Potent Greenhouse Gas Than Carbon Dioxide 32 times more potent over 100 years 105 times more potent over 20 years Therefore, even small emission rates importantShindell DT, Faluvegi G, Koch DM, Schmidt GA, Unger N, and Bauer SE (2009). Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions. Science 326: 716-718. 16 17. http://www.globalchange.gov/ 17 18. Howarth et al. (2012-b) Background paper for National Climate AssessmentDownstream Emissions(storage, transmission pipelines, distribution systems) Common to Conventional and Unconventional Gas 19. Howarth et al. (2012-b) Background paper for National Climate Assessment Upstream and MidstreamEmissions fromConventional Gas 20. Howarth et al. (2012-b) Background paper for National Climate Assessment Direct, landscape scalemeasurements !! 21. Natural Gas Systems Now Produce 39%of Total U.S. Methane Emissions Methane contribution toentire greenhouse gas inventory (Howarth et al. 2012, based on 2011 EPA data for 2009)21 22. Shale Gas is the Dirtiest Fossil Fuel Howarth & Ingraffea, Nature, 15 September 2011 22 23. Why Is Controlling Methane (CH4) Emission So Important? Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012) 23 24. IEAs Golden Age, Golden Rules, Or.?If IEAs Golden Rules for social, regulatory and environmental rulesare followed, by that agencys own estimates, we will be on atrajectory to 3.5 degrees Celsius of global warming this century.A 3.5 degrees Celsius temperature increase trajectory isunacceptable in terms of its implications for humanbeings, climate, species, and the fragile equilibrium of our planetIf countries only rely on gas replacing coal for their environmentalpolicies they would make a mistakeFatih Birol, IEAs chief economist, 30 May, 2012 24 25. There is no time to waste.Natural gas is a delaying tacticThere is no time to wasteWe have to decide whether we are in the business of delayingbad outcomes or whether we are in the business of preventingbad outcomes.Ken Caldiera, Senior ScientistDepartment of Global Ecology,Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CAApril 15, 2012 25 26. Thank You for Attendingand Participating Today www.psehealthyenergy.org26