eu nuclear status & prospect

EU EU NuclearNuclear StatusStatus & Prospects& Prospects

Bertrand BarréENS President

INSC PresidentAdvisor to AREVA

Olkiluoto – July 2005GLOBAL 05 – Tsukuba, October 2005

BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 20052

Yugoslav Nuclear SocietySwiss Nuclear SocietySwedish Nuclear Society

Spanish Nuclear SocietySlovak Nuclear SocietyRomanian Nuclear EnergyAssociation

Polish Nuclear SocietyNuclear Society of SloveniaNuclear Society of Russia

Netherlands NuclearSociety

Lithuanian Nuclear EnergyAssociation

Italian Nuclear Association

Israel Nuclear SocietyHungarian Nuclear SocietyGerman Nuclear Society

French Nuclear EnergySociety

Finnish Nuclear SocietyDanish Nuclear Society

Czech Nuclear SocietyCroatian Nuclear SocietyBulgarian Nuclear Society

British Nuclear EnergySociety

Belgian Nuclear SocietyAustrian Nuclear Society

24 Member Societies accross Europe

www.euronuclear.org


European Union EU-25


Specifics of Europe

Population no longer Growing

High per capita GNP

High energy use /Low consumption growth rate

Low Fossil Fuels Resources / High dependancy

Environment consciousness

High technology

Nuclear Power well fitted to European Situation


Nuclear Electricity 2004Country GWe TWh Nb Reac. %ElecUSA 98 789 103 20France 63 427 59 78Japan 48 274 55 29Germany 20 158 17 32Russia 22 133 31 16South Korea 17 124 20 38Canada 12 85 17 15Ukraine 13 81 15 51Sweden 9 75 10 52U Kingdom 12 74 23 19WORLD 368 2 619 440 16

Website WNA August 2005


Nuclear Power in EU 25Country Nuclear % Elec # reactors GWe

TWh (2004) (July 2005)Belgium 44.9 55 7 5.7Czech Republic 26.3 31 6 3.5Finland 21.8 27 4 2.7France 426.8 78 59 63.4Germany 158.4 32 17 20.3Hungary 11.2 34 4 1.8Lithuania 13.9 72 1 1.2Netherlands 3.6 4 1 0.4Slovakia 15.6 55 6 2.5Slovenia 5.2 38 1 0.7Spain 60.9 23 9 7.6Sweden 75.0 52 10 8.9United Kingdom 73.5 10 23 11.9

TOTAL EU 25 937.3 32 148 130.6


Nuclear Power in EuropeRegion Nuclear TWh # reactors GWe

EU 25 937.3 148 130.6Bulgaria 15.6 4 2.7Romania 5.1 1 0.7

EU 28 958.0 153 134.0Switzerland 25.4 5 3.2

West Europe 983.4 158 137.2Russian Federation 133.0 31 21.7Ukraine 81.1 15 13.1

Total Europe 1197.5 204 172.0WORLD 2618.6 440 367.7


Main Players on the Nuclear Power Marketplace (2004)

* Publicly traded company ** Separative Work Units*** Of which half purchased from MINATOM (HEU) *** Plus the 15% sold to USEC (HEU)

2004

Mar

ket

CAM

ECO*

UREN

CO

USEC

*

AREV

A

BNFL

WES

TING

HOUS

E

Gene

ral E

lect

ric*

OTHE

R

Conversion/Chemistry

Enrichment

L E Uranium fuel(UO2)

Reactors & Services

Reprocessing

Recycling

& MOX fuel

20%

20% 30% ***

20%

25%

25%

35%

25%

75%

90%

5%(2006 shutdown)

BNFL, URENCOshareholder

25%

15%

15%

10%

20%

20%****

10%

15%

10%

30%

15%

10%

50%

JNFLin future

10%

JNFLin future

70,000 t

55,000 tU

37.5MSWUs**

6,500 t

370 GWe

1,500 t

150 t

FRO

NT

END

BA

CK

EN

D

Mining / Natural Uranium

MIN

ATOM

Grou

p

BNFL/SMP

a/c 2004

20%

5%

15%

35%

€6.6B in 2004 sales


AREVA and URENCO JV* in centrifuge technology

NewURENCO

(Holding)

ETC(1)

(URENCO-COGEMA JV)Established in 2003

Centrifuge design and manufacturing

R&D andtechnology

Centrifuge production capacity

1 million SWU / year

CapacityEURODIF: 10 million SWUGB II 2007: 0.3 million SWU

2018: 7.5+ million SWU

GBII project SWU production

+ Marketing and sales

AREVACOGEMA

33% 33%

BNFL Dutch Gov’t.

RWE+E.on

33%

2003 capacity6 million SWU

Rapid growth rate

UEB - URENCOSWU production

+Marketing and sales

50%50%Minorityholders

centrifugescentrifuges

Third parties

centrifuges

*Subject to ratification of intergovernmental treaty (NL, Germany, UK, France)(1) Enrichment Technology Company


Vendors’Share of LWR-HWR Capacity (MWe)MWe installed

0

FRA

BW

SIE

AREVA(92)

W

ABB-CE

ABB

Mitsubishi*

BNFLWestinghouse

(103)

GeneralElectric

HitachiToshiba*

FAAEVVER

AECL

(69)

(7)

(16)

(6)(1)

(79)

(14)

(10)

(50)

(53)(31)(18)

(29)Doosan*

(8)

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

BWRPWR PHWR

*Licensed by: Westinghouse to Mitsubishi and Doosan G.E. to Hitachi/Toshiba ** Following Framatome's purchase of the commercial reactors business from B&W at the end of the 1990s, AREVA may beconsidered as the preferred service partner for these reactors in the United States, although it is not liable as a constructorSource: AREVA


The Evolution of Nuclear Power

Generation I

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Future Future SystemsAdvanced Advanced

ReactorsSystemsReactorsCurrent Current

ReactorsReactorsFirst First

ReactorsReactors

UNGGCHOOZ

Generation II

Generation IIIREP 900

REP 1300 N4

Generation IV

?EPR


« Generation 3 » Nuclear Plants


Production costs of EPR vs CCGT

Production costs

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2,4 3,3 3,6 4,7Gas price ($/MBtu)

€/MWh

CCG

EPR

FOAK

CO2 not included


Ok 3 Supplier ConsortiumFramatome ANP and Siemens PG

Framatome ANP:overall project coordination (including functional and technical integration of the complete plant),Nuclear Island (Nuclear Steam Supply System plus Balance of the Nuclear Island),Instrumentation and Control plus Simulator for the whole plant,supply of the first core of fuel assemblies.

Siemens PG:Turbine Island.


Site Works at Olkiluoto (Finland) spring2004


Concrete pouring August 2005


EPR Reactor Vessel


EPR Steam Generator


GEN IV : paves the way for a sustainable nuclear energy

New requirements for sustainable nuclear energy

Concepts with breakthroughs

Minimization of wastesPreservation of resourcesResistance to Proliferation

• Gradual improvements in :CompetitivenessSafety and reliability

New applications :hydrogen productionwater desalinationdirect use of heat

Penetration of new markets :emerging countriessmall countries

GénérationIV

International Forum

Members

GénérationIV

International Forum

Members

U.S.A.U.S.A.

ArgentinaArgentina

BrazilBrazil

CanadaCanadaFranceFrance

JapanJapan

South AfricaSouth Africa

UnitedUnitedKingdomKingdom

SwitzeSwitzerlandrland

E.U.E.U.

South KoreaSouth Korea


Different systems for different applications

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Hydrogen

Electricity Generation

Waste Burndown

Fissile Creation

Near-Term

Systems


Capability to target new applicationsNuclearNuclear energyenergy willwill bebe essential for :essential for :

Electrical power generation

…… but but alsoalso for new applications :for new applications :Hydrogen productionDirect use of HeatSea water desalination

Nuclear HeatNuclear HeatHydrogenHydrogen OxygenOxygen

H2O22

1

900 C400 C

Rejected Heat 100 C

Rejected Heat 100 C

S (Sulfur)Circulation

SO2+H2O+O22

1H2SO4

SO2+

H2OH2O

H2

I2+ 2HI

H2SO4

SO2+H2OH2O

+

+ +

I (Iodine)Circulation

2H I

I2

I2

WaterWater

Nuclear HeatNuclear HeatHydrogenHydrogen OxygenOxygen

H2O22

1 O22121

900 C400 C

Rejected Heat 100 C

Rejected Heat 100 C

S (Sulfur)Circulation

SO2+H2O+O22

1H2SO4

SO2+

H2OH2O

H2

I2+ 2HI

H2SO4

SO2+H2OH2O

+

+ +

I (Iodine)Circulation

2H I

I2

I2

WaterWater

Very High Temperature Reactor

Fuel Cell Prototypevehicle

(hydrogen)


Nuclear Generation Forecasts 2003-2030(IAEA July 2004)

1600

?

14002003

2010 l2010 h

2020 l2020 h

2030 l2030 h

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0N Amer L Amer Eur W Eur E Africa ME+AsE Far East


24 708 EU25 citizens…


Some Results of EUROBAROMETER 277


EU 25

HungarySweden

Czech RepublicLithuaniaFinlandSlovakiaFranceNetherlandsBelgium

United KingdomSloveniaEstoniaLatviaGermany

LuxemburgItalyDenmarkPolandPortugalMaltaSpainIrelandCyprusGreeceAustria


BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 200530 BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 2005


Nuclear supporter : male, educated, right-wing


Even in Europe : a Change of Mood ?

Finland and France order new plants

German phaseout not supported by CDU-CSU

After Baerseback, no new Swedish shutdown in theplanning

New EU Members much more supportive – Likely to influence the EP

Swiss antinuke referendum widely beaten

UK White Paper still « in » ?

Even in Italy, nuclear non longer « taboo »

eu nuclear status & prospect

Documents