Danish GHG Reductions Status, potentials and barrieres

GWACTG Workshop August 24th

Martin Lidegaard

Chairman of CONCITO

Who is CONCITO?

Who is CONCITO?

University of Aalborg: Dean Frede Blaabjerg Senior Researcher Rob Marsh Senior Researcher Kirsten Engelund Thomsen Senior Researcher Lars Engberg Associate Professor Claus Lassen University of Aarhus: Professor Mikael Skou Andersen Professor Ellen Margrethe Basse Professor Peter Kemp Research Professor Jørgen E. Olesen Professor Ole Færgeman Copenhagen Business School: Professor Jens Frøslev Christensen Professor Susse Georg Associate Professor Christian Erik Kampmann GEUS: Professor Jens Christian Refsgaard University of Southern Denmark: Professor Henrik Wenzel

Roskilde University: Professor Lise Drewes Nielsen Associate Professor Per Homann Jespersen Associate Professor Jacob Rendtorff Technical University of Denmark: Program Manager Kirsten Halsnæs Head of Center Bjarne W. Olesen Professor Thomas Højlund Christensen Professor Svend Svendsen Senior Researcher Henrik Gudmundsson Senior Researcher Kristian Borch Associate Professor Susanne Balslev Associate Professor Jeppe Rich University of Copenhagen: Dean Per Holten-Andersen Professor Christian Friis Bach Professor Svend Christensen Professor Thomas Højrup Professor Peter Nedergaard Professor Øjvind Lidegaard Professor John R. Porter Associate Dean Birgitte Sloth

Who is CONCITO?

Thomas Ahlstrup, Part. for Indus. Biotec Jesper Asholt, actor Ole Boisen, actor Kim Carstensen, fmr. general secretary, WWF Henning Christophersen, fmr. deputy chairman, European Commission and fmr. foreign minister and minister for finance Jørn Jespersen, general manager, Danish Environmental Tech, fmr. MP Jørgen Henningsen, Senior Advisor, European Policy Center Per Henriksen Susanne Krawack, The Triangle Region, Tobias Lau, Social Action Martin Lidegaard, chairman, fmr. MP Torben Melchior, fmr. president of the supreme court Henrik Nordbrandt, author Fritz Schur, chairman of the board, consul Göran Wilke, Exergi

”The purpose of the think tank is to contribute to the decrease of greenhouse gas emissions and the fatal consequences of global warming.”

The Constitution of CONCITO

How does CONCITO work?

How does CONCITO work?

Climate Outreach

Politicians

Business Community

Consumers/Citizens

Method

• Denmark’s GHG targets • Existing visions • Existing projections • CONGAS • Estimate probability of achiving targets • Indicate relevant policy measures

Denmark’s targets:

• In the short term, according to the Kyoto Protocol

Denmark must reduce its GHG emissions by 21 % on average in the period 2008-12 compared to 1990.

• In the medium term, in the EU Denmark has pledged to reduce its emissions in the non ETS sectors, such as transport, agriculture and buildings, by 20% in 2020 compared to 2005, and emission allowances in the ETS sector will be cut by a similar percentage in the same period.

• In the long term, Denmark has approved the EU target of an 80-95 % reduction in 2050 compared to 1990.

Interpretation of the 2050 target

Status

Indicators

Non ETS sectors

Vehicles transport CO2 baseline

Vehicles transport CO2 baseline

Vehicles transport CO2 with high prices

Development in emissions from vehicles using price movements corresponding to a gasoline price of 18 DKK/l in 2020

Vehicles transport CO2 with 50% bio fuels

Emissions from the transport sector, based on the baseline scenario, but using a CO2 ef-ficiency for biofuels of 50%.

Potentials in the transport sector

Area

Measure

CO2e reduction

(Megatons)

Buildings 1.1 Energy conservation through better building envelopes 0.7

1.2 Phasing out oil furnaces by 2025 1.0

1.3 Energy conservation in the business sector 0.5

1.4 Phasing out natural gas by 2030 2.0

Total effect of adopting all measures, excl. overlap 3.0

Transport 2.1 Higher registration tax for CO2 sinners – and no “loopholes” 0.5

2.2 Massive focus on electric vehicles 0.5

2.3 Implementation of road pricing for cargo transport 0.9

2.4 Focus on natural gas and biogas for heavy transport 0.7

2.5 Massive focus on public transport 0.32

2.7 Lower speed limits (110kmph on freeways) 0.23

Total effect of adopting all measures, excl. overlap 3.0

Agriculture 3.1 Biogasification, 50% of all manure 0.35

3.2 Removal of agricultural acreage totaling 75,000ha shallow soil 0.86

3.3 Afforestation on 50,000ha sandy soil 0.62

3.4 Energy willow on 70,000ha 0.19

3.6 Acidification of slurry, 25% of all manure 0.12

3.7 Cover crops on 260,000 additional hectares 0.23

3.8 Conversion of 100,000ha sandy soil to sustainable grass 0.34

3.10 Afforestation on 25,000ha clay soil 0.19

Total effect of adopting all measures 2.9

Thank you! www.concito.info