ethylene via ethanol dehydration, part 2

60
Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

Upload: intratec-solutions

Post on 07-Mar-2016

253 views

Category:

Documents


3 download

DESCRIPTION

Rising oil prices and global concerns about sustainability and global warming have motivated research into ethylene manufacture from renewable sources. This report reviews the production of ethylene from ethanol dehydration in a process based on the patent published by BP Chemicals. It is presented a technical and economic evaluation of a unit located in the US Gulf Coast. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed in which the effects of variations in prices and technical parameters on the investment and the operating costs were studied. Green ethylene must be sold with an increased premium over fossil-based ethylene of about 50% in order to make the investment attractive.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

Ethylene via Ethanol

Dehydration, Part 2

Page 2: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2
Page 3: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

Copyrights © 2013 by Intratec Solutions LLC. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

#TEC013A

Technology Economics

Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

2013

Abstract

One of the most important petroleum-derived products, ethylene is known as a key building block for the petrochemical industry.Ethylene is most frequently produced via steam cracking of petroleum-based feedstock.

Rising oil prices coupled with global concerns about sustainability and global warming have motivated research into ethylenemanufacture from renewable sources. Renewable-based or “green” chemicals products are slowly emerging and entering themarket.

Ethylene made from ethanol (from corn, sugarcane or lignocellulosic biomass) presents the primary advantage of being madefrom CO2 removed from the atmosphere, reducing greenhouse gas lifetime emissions from the ethylene manufacture process aswell as dependence of the chemical industry on fossil-fuels.

This study presents an assessment of the economic potential of research involving a process for the production of ethylene viaethanol dehydration, similar to the one suggested by BP Chemicals in a patent application. Included in the analysis is a technicaloverview of the proposed process, presenting description, flow diagrams and material balance. Based on BP Chemicals patentdata, the process was simulated and served as the basis for estimating both the capital investment and the operating costs of acommercial scale plant based on this emerging process.

In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of key technical aspects and economic variables on capitaland operating expenses. The analysis assesses the effects of variations in raw material and utility prices, reaction conversions, andthe formation of undesired by-products on the economic performance of the process.

The economic analysis presented in the study is based on a plant producing 190 kta of polymer grade ethylene. The estimatedtotal capital expenditure (CAPEX) for such a plant on the US Gulf Coast is about USD 230 million. The analysis performed indicatesthat a green ethylene plant relying on the process suggested by BP Chemicals must be able to sell the product at a price of aboutUSD 1,700 per metric ton in order to become a profitable venture. This means that eco-friendly ethylene must be valued at apremium about 40% higher than that of fossil-based ethylene.

Page 4: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

Have Intratec develop a publication about any technology you wish.

You will get:

Publication

+

Economic Analyzer

+

Support and More

A complete, well-structuredpublication analyzing the

technology defined by you.

With this simulation tool, youcan make agile evaluations ofcustom economic scenarios.

Eliminate any doubts aboutyour publication and

customize it with extrafeatures: Express development,

Private edition and more!

Define the publication theme in a few seconds online:

Upload a File

Or

Point to a Website Link

Or

Provide Minimum Info

A patent, article, paper, … It may be a piece of news, anarticle's abstract or even a

licensor's website.

What is the raw material? Whatis the main product? Or

anything else you might know.

To request a proposal, access www.intratec.us/ask-for-a-new-publication

Ask for a New Publication

ii

Page 5: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

Information, analyses and/or models herein presentedare prepared on the basis of publicly availableinformation and non-confidential information disclosedby third parties. Third parties, including, but not limitedto technology licensors, trade associations ormarketplace participants, may have provided some ofthe information on which the analyses or data are based.Intratec Solutions LLC (known as “Intratec”) does notbelieve that such information will contain anyconfidential information but cannot provide anyassurance that any third party may, from time to time,claim a confidential obligation to such information.

The aforesaid information, analyses and models aredeveloped independently by Intratec and, as such, arethe opinion of Intratec and do not represent the point ofview of any third parties nor imply in any way that theyhave been approved or otherwise authorized by thirdparties that are mentioned in this publication.

The application of the solutions presented in thispublication without license from the owners infringes onthe intellectual property rights of the owners, includingpatent rights, trademark rights, and rights to tradesecrets and proprietary information.

Intratec conducts analyses and prepares publicationsand models for readers in conformance with generallyaccepted professional standards. Although thestatements in this publication are derived from or basedon several sources that Intratec believe to be reliable,Intratec does not guarantee their accuracy, reliability, orquality; any such information, or resulting analyses, maybe incomplete, inaccurate or condensed. All estimatesincluded in this publication are subject to changewithout notice. This publication is for informationalpurposes only and is not intended as anyrecommendation of investment.

Reader agrees it will not, without prior written consent ofIntratec, represent, directly or indirectly, that its productshave been approved or endorsed by the other parties.

In no event shall Intratec, its employees, representatives,resellers or distributors be liable to readers or any otherperson or entity for any direct, indirect, special,exemplary, punitive, or consequential damages,including lost profits, based on breach of warranty,contract, negligence, strict liability or otherwise, arisingfrom the use of this publication, whether or not they or ithad any knowledge, actual or constructive, that suchdamages might be incurred.

Reader shall indemnify and hold harmless Intratec and itsresellers, representatives, distributors, and informationproviders against any claim, damages, loss, liability orexpense arising out of reader’s use of the publication inany way contrary to the present terms and conditions.

Intratec publications are the product of extensive workand original research and are protected by internationalcopyright law.

Products supplied as printed reports or books should notbe copied but can be included in schools, universities orcorporate libraries and circulated to colleagues to theextended permitted by copyright law.

Products supplied digitally are licensed, not sold. Thepurchaser is responsible for ensuring that license termsare adhered to at all times. PDF documents may besupplied watermarked with the customer’s name, emailand/or company. Digital documents are supplied withan enterprise license and can be shared by all employeesand on-site contractors of a single organization.Members of the organization may make such copies asare necessary to facilitate this distribution. An enterpriselicense does not permit sharing with externalorganizations.

Reader agrees that Intratec retains all rights, title andinterest, including copyright and other proprietary rights,in this publication and all material, including but notlimited to text, images, and other multimedia data,provided or made available as part of this publication.

Terms & Conditions

1

Page 6: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

2

Contents

About this Study...................................................................................................................................................................8

Object of Study.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................8

Analyses Performed ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................8

Study Bases..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................9

Design Bases .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................9

Economic Basis ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................9

Study Background ............................................................................................................................................................ 10

About Ethylene..................................................................................................................................................................................................................10

Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10

Applications....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................10

Manufacturing Alternatives .......................................................................................................................................................................................10

Bibliographic Review......................................................................................................................................................................................................11

Main Reference.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................11

Complementary References ................................................................................................................................................................................................12

Extra References...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................13

Related Publications History.................................................................................................................................................................................................13

Technical Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................. 14

Chemistry ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................14

Raw Material ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................14

Technology Overview ...................................................................................................................................................................................................15

Process Description & Estimated Conceptual Flow Diagram...............................................................................................................16

Area 100: Treatment..................................................................................................................................................................................................................16

Area 200: Reaction......................................................................................................................................................................................................................16

Area 300: Purification ................................................................................................................................................................................................................16

Process Performance ................................................................................................................................................................................................................17

ISBL Major Equipment List ..........................................................................................................................................................................................20

OSBL Major Equipment List .......................................................................................................................................................................................22

Technical Bases & Assumptions ..............................................................................................................................................................................23

Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................ 24

Capital Expenditures.......................................................................................................................................................................................................24

Fixed Investment.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................24

Page 7: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

3

Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................25

Other Capital Expenses ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................25

Total Capital Expenses .............................................................................................................................................................................................................26

Operational Expenditures ...........................................................................................................................................................................................26

Manufacturing Costs.................................................................................................................................................................................................................26

Economic Datasheet ......................................................................................................................................................................................................26

Economic Discussion ....................................................................................................................................................... 28

Sensitivity Analysis ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................28

Plant Capacity and Prices Variation..................................................................................................................................................................................28

Technical Parameters Variation..........................................................................................................................................................................................29

Profitability Sensitivity ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................32

Remarks ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................33

References............................................................................................................................................................................ 34

Acronyms, Legends & Observations .......................................................................................................................... 35

Technology Economics Methodology ...................................................................................................................... 36

Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................36

Workflow................................................................................................................................................................................................................................36

Capital & Operating Cost Estimates ......................................................................................................................................................................38

ISBL Investment............................................................................................................................................................................................................................38

OSBL Investment .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................38

Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................39

Other Capital Expenses ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................39

Manufacturing Costs.................................................................................................................................................................................................................40

Contingencies ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................40

Accuracy of Economic Estimates............................................................................................................................................................................41

Location Factor ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................41

Appendix A. Mass Balance & Streams Properties.................................................................................................. 43

Appendix B. Utilities Consumption Breakdown .................................................................................................. 45

Appendix C. Carbon Footprint ..................................................................................................................................... 46

Appendix D. Pilot Plant Construction........................................................................................................................ 47

Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses .................................................................................................................... 48

Direct Costs Breakdown ...............................................................................................................................................................................................48

Indirect Costs Breakdown ...........................................................................................................................................................................................49

Page 8: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

4

Appendix F. Economic Assumptions ......................................................................................................................... 50

Capital Expenditures.......................................................................................................................................................................................................50

Working Capital............................................................................................................................................................................................................................50

Other Capital Expenses ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................50

Operational Expenditures ...........................................................................................................................................................................................50

Historical Prices for Ethanol........................................................................................................................................................................................51

Appendix G. Released Publications............................................................................................................................ 52

Appendix H. Request Submitted to Intratec........................................................................................................... 53

Subject of the Publication...........................................................................................................................................................................................53

Remarks and Comments .............................................................................................................................................................................................53

Page 9: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

5

List of Tables

Table 1 –Design Bases.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................9

Table 2 – Storage and Utility Assumptions..........................................................................................................................................................................9

Table 3 – Fixed Investment and Pricing Basis ....................................................................................................................................................................9

Table 4 – Major Ethylene Consumers...................................................................................................................................................................................10

Table 5 – Raw Materials & Utilities Consumption (per ton of Product)...........................................................................................................17

Table 6 –Labor Requirements ...................................................................................................................................................................................................17

Table 7 – Main Streams Operating Conditions and Composition .....................................................................................................................20

Table 8 – Inside Battery Limits Major Equipment List ................................................................................................................................................20

Table 9 – Outside Battery Limits Major Equipment List ............................................................................................................................................22

Table 10 – Technical Bases..........................................................................................................................................................................................................23

Table 11 - Design Assumptions Adopted..........................................................................................................................................................................23

Table 12 – General Assumptions.............................................................................................................................................................................................24

Table 13 – Bare Equipment Cost per Area (USD Thousands)................................................................................................................................24

Table 14 – Total Fixed Investment Breakdown (USD Thousands)......................................................................................................................25

Table 15 – Working Capital (USD Million) ..........................................................................................................................................................................25

Table 16 – Other Capital Expenses (USD Million)..........................................................................................................................................................26

Table 17 – CAPEX (USD Million) ...............................................................................................................................................................................................26

Table 18 – Manufacturing Fixed Cost (USD/ton) ..........................................................................................................................................................26

Table 19 – Manufacturing Variable Cost (USD/ton) ....................................................................................................................................................26

Table 20 – OPEX (USD/ton).........................................................................................................................................................................................................26

Table 21 – Technology Economics Datasheet: Green Ethylene from Ethanol Dehydration .............................................................27

Table 22 – Basis for By-Products Formation Sensitivity.............................................................................................................................................30

Table 23 – Financial Assumptions ..........................................................................................................................................................................................32

Table 24 – Project Contingency...............................................................................................................................................................................................40

Table 25 – Complexity Criteria Description ......................................................................................................................................................................40

Table 26 – Accuracy of Economic Estimates ...................................................................................................................................................................41

Table 27 – Detailed Material Balance and Stream Properties................................................................................................................................43

Table 28 – Utilities Consumption Breakdown.................................................................................................................................................................45

Table 29 – Assumptions for CO2e Emissions Calculation........................................................................................................................................46

Table 30 – CO2e Emissions (ton/ton prod.)......................................................................................................................................................................46

Table 31 – Pilot Plant Construction Information ...........................................................................................................................................................47

Table 32 – Pilot Plant Construction Cost (USD Thousands) ...................................................................................................................................47

Page 10: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

6

Table 33 – Indirect Costs Breakdown ...................................................................................................................................................................................49

Table 34 – Working Capital Assumptions..........................................................................................................................................................................50

Table 35 – Other Capital Expenses Assumptions..........................................................................................................................................................50

Table 36 – Other Fixed Cost Assumptions ........................................................................................................................................................................50

Table 37 – Depreciation Value & Assumptions ..............................................................................................................................................................50

Page 11: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

7

List of Figures

Figure 1 – Proposed Configuration to Produce Ethylene from Ethanol Dehydration..............................................................................8

Figure 2 – Ethylene from Multiple Sources.......................................................................................................................................................................11

Figure 3 – Layout Proposed by the Main Reference Used in the Study.........................................................................................................12

Figure 4 – Publications in Recent Years ..............................................................................................................................................................................13

Figure 5 – Process Block Flow Diagram ..............................................................................................................................................................................15

Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow Diagram.................................................................................................................18

Figure 7 – Plant Capacity Effect on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM) ..........................................................................................................28

Figure 8 – Raw Material and Utilities Prices Effects on Manufacturing Costs (USD/Metric Ton of Product)............................28

Figure 9 – Ethanol Conversion Effects on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM)............................................................................................29

Figure 10 – Ethanol Conversion Effects on Manufacturing Expenses (USD/Metric Ton of Product) ...........................................29

Figure 11 – Process Changes Due to By-Products Formation..............................................................................................................................30

Figure 12 – By-Products Formation Effects on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM) .................................................................................31

Figure 13 – By-Products Formation Effects on Manufacturing Expenses (USD/Metric Ton of Product)....................................31

Figure 14 – Internal Rate of Return for Different Pricing Scenarios ...................................................................................................................32

Figure 15 – Net Present Value for Different Pricing Scenarios (MM USD) .....................................................................................................33

Figure 16 – Methodology Flowchart ....................................................................................................................................................................................37

Figure 17 – Location Factor Composition.........................................................................................................................................................................41

Figure 18 – ISBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type............................................................................................................................48

Figure 19 – OSBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type .........................................................................................................................48

Figure 20 – Historical Ethanol Prices.....................................................................................................................................................................................51

Page 12: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

8

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

This study follows the same pattern as all TechnologyEconomics studies developed by Intratec and is based onthe same rigorous methodology and well-defined structure(chapters, type of tables and charts, flow sheets, etc.).

The subject of this assessment was defined by a majorplayer in the chemical and allied industries sector throughIntratec’s website. The submitted request is presented in“Appendix H. ”

In this chapter you will find a summary of all inputs andassumptions used to develop the current technologyevaluation. All required data were gathered by our team ofspecialists from publicly available information, Intratec’s in-house databases, and process design standards.

Object of Study

This assignment assesses the economic potential of anexploratory technology used to produce ethylene fromethanol. The process was proposed by BP Chemicals in theUS patent 2009/0082605. For more details regarding thereferences used to support this study, please review thesection “Bibliographic Review.” An overview of thetechnology can be seen in the figure below.

Analyses Performed

The current study comprises the following analyses:

Process Synthesis & Design. This involves the synthesis ofvarious process configurations to produce the desiredproduct in a safe, reliable and economic manner. At theend of the synthesis step, the best process configurationanalyzed is presented in detail: process description,conceptual process flow diagram, material and energybalance, key process indicators, equipment sizing, etc.

Capital Cost Estimation. For a concept to become anoperating industrial plant, significant funding must beavailable to purchase and install equipment. In addition,capital is required to pay the expenses involved in theoperation before sales revenue becomes available. Thisstudy estimates the entire capital cost required to realizethe desired concept.

Manufacturing Cost Estimation. Determining the totalcost of operating the plant, selling the product, and othercorporate expenses is a crucial component of an economicanalysis.

About this Study

Figure 1 – Proposed Configuration to Produce Ethylene from Ethanol Dehydration

Ethanol

Water

EthyleneReaction Step

(EthanolDehydration)

Purification Step(Columns)

Ethanol and Diethyl Ether Recycle

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 13: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

9

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

Product Price Estimation. This is based on the sum of allmanufacturing costs, recovery of the capital invested andthe anticipated profit margin. The estimated price indicatesthe minimum product sales price required to make theassessed technology economically attractive.

Sensitivity Analysis. Evaluation of the key technical andeconomic variables impact on capital and operatingexpenses is a vital part of the study. The charts presented inthe “Economic Discussion” section help to determine whereto focus research and development efforts.

The current study measures how capital and/or operatingexpenses are impacted by the following variables:

Plant production capacity,

Raw material and utility prices,

Reaction conversion,

Formation of undesired by-products.

Study Bases

The current study assesses the technical and economicaspects of a hypothetical industrial plant based on theexploratory technology described above. The plant islocated on the US Gulf Coast and produces 190 kta ofethylene. The economic analysis is based on data gatheredon Q3 2012.

Design Bases

The technical analysis is based on rigorous simulationmodels, which support the design of the chemical process,unit operations, equipment and OSBL facilities. The generaldesign assumptions employed are depicted in Table 1.

Cooling Water Temperature 24 °C

Cooling Water Range 11 °C

Steam (Low Pressure) 7 Bar abs

Steam (Medium Pressure) 11 Bar abs

Refrigerant (Propylene) -45 °C

Wet Bulb Air Temperature 25 °C

The specific assumptions that supported the processsynthesis are presented in the “Technical Analysis” chapter.An investment for the construction of a new chemical plantis greatly impacted by storage and utility assumptions.They are presented in Table 2.

Storage Capacity

Feedstock & Chemicals 20 days of operation

End-products & By-products Not included

Utility Facilities Included All required

Support & Auxiliary Facilities

Control room, labs,

maintenance shops,

warehouses

Economic Basis

This study considers the economic performance of a plantconstructed and operating under the followingcircumstances.

FIXED INVESTMENT

Location Factor 1.00 Relative to US Gulf Coast

PRICING

Ethanol 800 USD/ton

Cooling Water 0.0004 USD/m3

LP Steam 12.3 USD/ton

Boiler Feed Water 0.01 USD/ton

Electricity 0.07 USD/kWh

Fuel 3.5 USD/MMBtu

Operator Salaries 58.6 USD/man-hour

Supervisor Salaries 88.0 USD/man-hour

Table 1 –Design Bases

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 2 – Storage and Utility Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 3 – Fixed Investment and Pricing Basis

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 14: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

10

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

About Ethylene

Introduction

Ethylene is an unsaturated organic compound with thechemical formula C2H4. It has one double bond and is thesimplest member of the alkene class of hydrocarbons.

Ethylene 2D structure

Ethylene is primarily produced by the pyrolysis ofhydrocarbons and by recovery from some refinery products.It can also be produced in other reactions, for example, inethanol dehydration or methanol-to-olefins plants.

One of the largest volume petrochemicals worldwide andthe first in natural abundance, ethylene is a leadingindustrial chemical intermediate that serves as one of thebuilding blocks for an array of chemical and plasticproducts.

Commercial ethylene is a colorless, low-boiling, flammablegas with a sweet odor. It is commercially traded in polymergrade (min. 99.9% of purity).

Applications

Commercial ethylene major application in the chemicalindustry is as a raw material for the production ofpolyethylene and other organic chemicals that are mainlyutilized in consumable end uses, especially in packaging.

The main use of ethylene is in the manufacture of plasticssuch as polyethylene, which accounts for about 60% of theglobal ethylene demand. The main class of polyethyleneproduced in the world is high density polyethylene (HDPE),which is responsible for the consumption of a third of theavailable ethylene, followed by low density (LDPE) andlinear low density (LLDPE) varieties.

Other important products derived from ethylene areethylene oxide, an intermediate to ethylene glycolsynthesis, ethylene dichloride, styrene, and vinyl acetate.

With such a diverse range of derivative products, ethylenedemand is very sensitive to economic cycles. Therefore, it isoften used as a reference in the performance evaluation ofthe petrochemical industry.

Polyethylene Adhesives, packaging, bags, piping

Ethylene oxideEthylene glycol, ethoxylates (non-ionic

surfactants)

Ethylene glycolPolyester, polyethylene terephthalate,

automotive antifreeze

Ethylene

dichlorideVinyl chloride (monomer for PVC)

StyrenePolystyrene, ABS, rubbers, plastics,

fiberglass, pipes

Vinyl acetatePolyvinyl acetate, emulsion polymers,

resins

Manufacturing Alternatives

Ethylene is mainly produced by steam cracking of oilfractions, as NGL, and LPG, but, mainly as naphtha.Additionally, research efforts have been made to createalternatives to manufacture less energy-consuming oil-independent ethylene. However, researchers have not yetfound better options to the cracking process.

In steam cracking, the oil fraction diluted with steam is fedinto a radiant tube reactor, where fire is externally providedin order to supply the energy required for the reactioncompletion. This process enables the utilization of differenttypes of coils, radiation tubes, and furnaces.

The main difference between thermal and steam cracking isthat the latter uses high temperatures and low pressures,favoring olefins production. In this sense, dilution of thefeed stream with steam reduces the partial pressure ofreactants and helps to avoid coke formation in the reactionsystem, which is also prevented by slow residence times.

Study Background

Table 4 – Major Ethylene Consumers

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 15: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

11

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

As the reaction occurs within this furnace, variousmechanisms are assumed to represent the process. In thevery beginning (with a low conversion rate), a free-radicaldecomposition is assumed for the system. Once theconversion increases, the more acceptable mechanismincludes condensation reactions to form cycliccomponents.

Another technique is also being employed:

Methanol-to-Olefins. A group of technologies thatfirst converts synthesis gas (syngas) to methanol, andthen converts the methanol to ethylene and/orpropylene. The process also produces water as a by-product. Synthesis gas is produced from thereformation of natural gas or by the steam-inducedreformation of petroleum products such as naphtha, orby gasification of coal. A large amount of methanol isrequired to make a world-scale ethylene and/orpropylene plant.

Bibliographic Review

Since limited information is available for exploratorytechnologies, patents and articles had to be researched toaid in the process synthesis and design. This sectionhighlights important topics from key references used in thispublication.

Figure 2 – Ethylene from Multiple Sources

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Steam Cracker

EthanolDehydration

MTO/MTP

NaphthaNGLLPG

PG Ethylene(Green)Ethanol

Methanol

Page 16: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

12

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

Figure 3 – Layout Proposed by the Main Reference Used in the Study

Source: US patent 2009/0082605, from BP Chemicals

Page 17: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

13

Intr

ate

c | S

tud

y B

ackg

rou

nd

Figure 4 – Publications in Recent Years

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 18: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

14

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Raw Material

Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol [CH3CH2OH], is a volatile,flammable, and colorless liquid (pure form). It is miscible inall proportions with water, ether, acetone, benzene, andsome other organic solvents.

Ethanol has been produced by the fermentation ofcarbohydrates for thousands of years. In the 1930s, low oilprices enabled the production of industrial ethanol throughdirect and indirect hydration of petroleum-derivedethylene.

The rising cost of crude petroleum has prompted researchinto the industrial manufacture of ethanol from biomasssources. Ethanol from biomass can be produced by thefermentation of starch (from corn), sugar (from sugarcane)or waste lignocellulosic biomass (such as corn stover orswitch grass). The process varies depending on thefeedstock used.

Due to governments’ programs and technology advances,biomass has become the lowest cost raw material forethanol production. Currently, ethanol is almost exclusivelyobtained from biomass and has become a renewable-basedchemical. Global concerns about sustainability and globalwarming have inspired research into the use of renewableethanol for ethylene manufacture, substituting petroleum-derived ethylene.

Technical Analysis

Ethanol Ethylene Water

Formation of ether intermediate can also occur indehydration reactions:

Ethanol Diethyl ether Water

Diethyl ether Ethanol Ethylene

High temperatures favor the ethylene, while lowtemperatures favor production of diethyl ether. Highprocess temperatures also provoke thermal crackingreactions, which generate undesirable by-products such ascoke and alkanes.

Page 19: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

15

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Technology Overview

The process for green ethylene production described in thestudy consists of three areas: (1) Treatment; (2) Reaction;and (3) Purification. The simplified block flow diagrampresented in Figure 5 summarizes the process.

Fresh ethanol is combined with the recycled ethanol anddiethyl ether and sent to the treatment area to removeunwanted by-products such as acetaldehyde and C4hydrocarbons (primarily butylenes) that are generated inthe reaction.

The treated stream is sent to vapor-phase dehydrationreactors containing a heteropolyacid catalyst. In thereactors, ethanol is converted to ethylene.

The resultant stream is then sent to the purification area,which comprises a set of distillation columns. In thepurification area, the water formed in the dehydration stepis removed. The unreacted ethanol and diethyl ether arerecycled to the treatment area. The final product is apolymer grade ethylene stream.

There is no need for further purification, since the formationof ethane is minimized by the mild reaction conditions.

Figure 5 – Process Block Flow Diagram

Ethanol

Water

PG Ethylene

Ethanol and Diethyl ether Recycle

Area 200Reaction

Area 300Purification

Area 100Treatment

Removed Hydrocarbon(to fuel)

Source: BP Chemicals patent, Intratec analysis

Page 20: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

16

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Page 21: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

17

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Process Performance

Table 5 presents the process key performance indicators(KPI), while Table 6 shows the labor requirements.

Table 5 – Raw Materials & Utilities Consumption (per

ton of Product)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 6 –Labor Requirements

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 22: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

18

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow Diagram

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 23: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

19

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Figure 6 – Inside Battery Limits Conceptual Process Flow Diagram (Cont.)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 24: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

20

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Table 7 presents the main streams composition andoperating conditions. For a more complete materialbalance, see the “Appendix A. Mass Balance & StreamsProperties”.

Information regarding utilities flow rates is provided in“Appendix B. Utilities Consumption Breakdown.”

For further details on greenhouse gas emissions caused bythe process, see “Appendix C. Carbon Footprint.”

ISBL Major Equipment List

Table 8 shows the equipment list by area. It also presents abrief description and the main materials used.

Page 25: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

21

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Page 26: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

22

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

OSBL Major Equipment List

The OSBL is divided into three main areas: storage (Area700), energy & water facilities (Area 800), and support &auxiliary facilities (Area 900).

Table 9 shows the list of tanks located in the storage sectionand the energy facilities required in the construction of theunit.

Page 27: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

23

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

nic

al A

nal

ysis

Page 28: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

24

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic A

nal

ysis

The general assumptions used in this economic analysis areoutlined below.

Capital Expenditures

Fixed Investment

Table 13 shows the bare equipment cost associated witheach area of the project.

Table 14 details the breakdown of the total fixed investment(TFI) per item (direct & indirect costs and processcontingencies). For further information about thecomponents of the TFI, please see the chapter “TechnologyEconomics Methodology.”

Fundamentally, the direct costs are the total direct materialand labor costs associated with the equipment (includinginstallation bulks). The total direct cost represents the totalbare equipment installed cost.

“Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses” provides a detailedbreakdown for the direct expenses, outlining the share ofeach type of equipment in total.

After defining the total direct cost, the TFI is established byadding field indirects, engineering costs, overhead, contractfees and contingencies.

Economic Analysis

Table 12 – General Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 13 – Bare Equipment Cost per Area (USD

Thousands)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 29: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

25

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic A

nal

ysis

Indirect costs are defined by the American Association ofCost Engineers (AACE) Standard Terminology as those"costs which do not become a final part of the installationbut which are required for the orderly completion of theinstallation."

The indirect project expenses are further detailed in”Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses.”

The Outside Battery Limits (OSBL) requirements–storageand utilities supply facilities – significantly impact the capitalcost estimates for a new venture. Assumptions regardingthe OSBL considered in the analysis are presented in thechapter “About this Study.”

Working Capital

Working capital, described in Table 15, is another significantinvestment requirement. It is needed to meet the costs oflabor; maintenance; purchase, storage, and inventory offield materials; and storage and sales of product(s).

Assumptions for working capital calculations are found in“Appendix F. Economic Assumptions.”

Other Capital Expenses

The start-up costs should also be considered in determiningthe total capital expenses. During this period, expenses areincurred for employee training, initial commercializationcosts, manufacturing inefficiencies and unscheduled plantmodifications (adjustment of equipment, piping,instruments, etc.).

Initial costs are not addressed in most estimation studiesbut can become a significant expenditure. For instance, theinitial catalyst load in reactors may be a significant cost and,in this case, should also be included in the capital estimates.

Other capital expenses frequently neglected are landacquisition and site development. Although theserepresent small percentages of the total capital expenses,they should be included.

Table 14 – Total Fixed Investment Breakdown (USD

Thousands)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 15 – Working Capital (USD Million)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 30: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

26

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic A

nal

ysis

Total Capital Expenses

Table 17 presents a summary of the total CapitalExpenditures (CAPEX) detailed in previous sections.

Operational Expenditures

Manufacturing Costs

The manufacturing costs, also called OperationalExpenditures (OPEX), are composed of two elements: a fixedcost and a variable cost. All figures regarding operationalcosts are presented in USD per ton of product.

Table 18 shows the manufacturing fixed cost. To learn moreabout the assumptions for manufacturing fixed costs, seethe “Appendix F. Economic Assumptions.” Table 19discloses the manufacturing variable cost breakdown. Table20 shows the OPEX of the presented process.

Economic Datasheet

The Economic Datasheet, presented in Table 21, is anoverall evaluation of the process costs.

Table 16 – Other Capital Expenses (USD Million)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 17 – CAPEX (USD Million)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 18 – Manufacturing Fixed Cost (USD/ton)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 19 – Manufacturing Variable Cost (USD/ton)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 20 – OPEX (USD/ton)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 31: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

27

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic A

nal

ysis

Page 32: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

28

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

Sensitivity Analysis

In order to evaluate the impact of the uncertainties inherentto exploratory technologies, sensitivity analyses wereperformed. Key inputs were varied to evaluate their impactson the Total Fixed Investment and Manufacturing Costs ofthe process.

Plant Capacity and Prices Variation

Figure 7 shows the Total Fixed Investment whenconsidering the plant capacity variation. Figure 8 presentsthe Manufacturing Cost as a function of raw materials andutilities prices. In both charts, the base case evaluated inthe study is represented as the zero in x-axis.

Economic Discussion

Figure 7 – Plant Capacity Effect on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Figure 8 – Raw Material and Utilities Prices Effects on Manufacturing Costs (USD/Metric Ton of Product)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 33: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

29

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

Technical Parameters Variation

The following parameters were altered to evaluate theirimpact on Total Fixed Investment and Manufacturing Costs:

Ethanol conversion to ethylene;

Formation of undesired by-products (carbonmonoxide, carbon dioxide, and ethane).

Figure 9 – Ethanol Conversion Effects on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Figure 10 – Ethanol Conversion Effects on Manufacturing Expenses (USD/Metric Ton of Product)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 34: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

30

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

PRODUCT SELECTIVITY

(H2O-FREE BASIS, WT%)

BASE

CASE

Figure 11 – Process Changes Due to By-Products Formation

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 22 – Basis for By-Products Formation Sensitivity

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 35: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

31

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

Figure 12 – By-Products Formation Effects on Total Fixed Investment (USD MM)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Figure 13 – By-Products Formation Effects on Manufacturing Expenses (USD/Metric Ton of Product)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 36: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

32

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

Figure 14 – Internal Rate of Return for Different Pricing Scenarios

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 23 – Financial Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 37: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

33

Intr

ate

c | E

con

om

ic D

iscu

ssio

n

Figure 15 – Net Present Value for Different Pricing Scenarios (MM USD)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 38: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

34

Intr

ate

c | R

efe

ren

ces

References

Page 39: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

35

Intr

ate

c | A

cro

nym

s, L

eg

en

ds

& O

bse

rvat

ion

s

AACE: American Association of Cost Engineers

C: Distillation, stripper, scrubber columns (e.g., C-101 woulddenote a column tag)

C2, C3, ... Cn: Hydrocarbons with "n" number of carbonatoms

C2=, C3=, ... Cn=: Alkenes with "n" number of carbon atoms

CAPEX: Capital expenditures

CC: Distillation column condenser

CG: Chemical grade

CK Distillation column compressor

CP: Distillation column reflux pump

CR: Distillation column reboiler

CT: Cooling tower

CV: Distillation column accumulator drum

E: Heat exchangers, heaters, coolers, condensers, reboilers(e.g., E-101 would denote a heat exchanger tag)

F: Furnaces, fired heaters (e.g., F-101 would denote afurnace tag)

IC Index: Intratec Chemical Plant Construction Index

IP Indicator: Intratec Chemical Sector Profitability Indicator

IRR: Internal Rate of Return

ISBL: Inside battery limits

K: Compressors, blowers, fans (e.g., K-101 would denote acompressor tag)

KPI: Key Performance Indicator

kta: thousands metric tons per year

NPV: Net Present Value

OPEX: Operational Expenditures

OSBL: Outside battery limits

P: Pumps (e.g., P-101 would denote a pump tag)

PG: Polymer grade

R: Reactors, treaters (e.g., R-101 would denote a reactor tag)

RF: Refrigerant

ROCE: Return on capital employed

SB: Steam boiler

T: Tanks (e.g., T-101 would denote a tank tag)

TFI: Total Fixed Investment

TPC: Total process cost

V: Horizontal or vertical drums, vessels (e.g., V-101 woulddenote a vessel tag)

WD: Demineralized water

X: Special equipment (e.g., X-101 would denote a specialequipment tag)

Obs.: 1 ton = 1 metric ton = 1,000 kg

Acronyms, Legends & Observations

Page 40: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

36

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

Intratec Technology Economics methodologyensures a holistic, coherent and consistenttechno-economic evaluation, ensuring a clearunderstanding of a chemical processtechnology.

Introduction

The same general approach is used in the development ofall Technology Economics assignments. To know moreabout Intratec’s methodology, see Figure 16.

While based on the same methodology, all TechnologyEconomics studies present uniform analyses with identicalstructures, containing the same chapters and similar tablesand charts. This provides confidence to everyone interestedin Intratec’s services since they will know upfront what theywill get.

Workflow

Once the scope of the study is fully defined andunderstood, Intratec conducts a comprehensivebibliographical research in order to understand technicalaspects involved with the process analyzed.

Subsequently, the Intratec team simultaneously developsthe process description and the conceptual process flowdiagram based on:

a. Patent and technical literature research

b. Non-confidential information provided by technologylicensors

c. Intratec's in-house database

d. Process design skills

Next, all the data collected are used to build a rigoroussteady state process simulation model in Aspen Hysysand/or Aspen Plus, leading commercial processflowsheeting software tools.

From this simulation, material balance calculations areperformed around the process, key process indicators areidentified and main equipment listed.

Equipment sizing specifications are defined based onIntratec's equipment design capabilities and an extensiveuse of AspenONE Engineering Software Suite that enablesthe integration between the process simulation developedand equipment design tools. Both equipment sizing andprocess design are prepared in conformance with generallyaccepted engineering standards.

Then, a cost analysis is performed targeting ISBL & OSBLfixed capital costs, manufacturing costs, and overall workingcapital associated with the examined process technology.Equipment costs are primarily estimated using AspenProcess Economic Analyzer (formerly Aspen Icarus)customized models and Intratec's in-house database.

Cost correlations and, occasionally, vendor quotes of uniqueand specialized equipment may also be employed.

Next, capital and operating costs are assembled in MicrosoftExcel spreadsheets, and an economic analysis of suchtechnology is performed.

Finally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to assess theimpact of key economic variables on capital and operatingexpenses.

According to the demand of the client who requests theTechnology Economics study, the publication may alsoinclude additional analyses. Among other possibilities, thestudy may include sensitivity assessments to evaluate theimpact of technical parameters on capital andmanufacturing costs, as well as a regional comparisonevaluating the economic performance of similar industrialunits operating in different world regions.

Technology Economics Methodology

Page 41: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

37

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

Figure 16 – Methodology Flowchart

Intratec Internal Database

Non-ConfidentialInformation from

Technology Licensors orSuppliers

Aspen Plus, Aspen HysysAspen Exchanger Design &

Rating, KG Tower, Sulcoland Aspen Energy Analyzer

Bibliographical Research

Material & Energy Balances, KeyProcess Indicators, List of

Equipment & Equipment Sizing

Capital Cost (CAPEX)& Operational Cost (OPEX)

Estimation

Patent and TechnicalLiterature Databases

Pricing Data Gathering: RawMaterials, Chemicals,Utilities and Products

Aspen Process EconomicAnalyzer, Aspen Capital

Cost Estimator, Aspen In-Plant Cost Estimator &

Intratec In-House Database

Construction LocationFactor

(http://base.intratec.us)

Project Development Phases

Information Gathering / Tools

Vendor Quotes

Study Understanding -Validation of Project Inputs

Technical Validation –Process Description &

Flow Diagram

Economic Analysis

Final Review &Adjustments

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 42: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

38

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

Capital & Operating CostEstimates

The cost estimate presented in the current study considersa process technology based on a standardized designpractice that is typical of a major chemical company. Thespecific design standards employed can have a significantimpact on capital costs.

The basis for the capital cost estimate is that the plant isconsidered to be built in a clear field with a typical largesingle-line capacity. In comparing the cost estimate herebypresented with an actual project cost or contractor'sestimate, the following must be considered:

Minor differences or details (many times, overlooked)between similar processes can significantly affect cost.

The research progress can change the process layoutand impact both capital and operating costs.

The omission of process areas in the design consideredmay invalidate comparisons with the estimated costpresented.

Industrial plants may be overdesigned for particularobjectives and situations.

Rapid fluctuation of equipment or construction costsmay invalidate cost estimates.

Equipment vendors or engineering companies mayprovide goods or services below profit margins duringeconomic downturns.

Specific locations may impose higher taxes and fees,which can impact costs considerably.

In addition, no matter how much time and effort aredevoted to accurately estimating costs, errors may occurdue to the aforementioned factors, as well as cost and laborchanges, construction problems, weather-related issues,strikes, or other unforeseen situations. This is partiallyconsidered in the project contingency. Finally, it mustalways be remembered that an estimated project cost is notan exact number, but rather is a projection of the probablecost.

ISBL Investment

The ISBL investment includes the fixed capital cost of themain processing units of the plant necessary to themanufacturing of products. The ISBL investment includesthe installed cost of the following items:

Process equipment (e.g., reactors and vessels, heatexchangers, pumps, compressors, etc.)

Process equipment spares

Housing for process units

Pipes and supports within the main process units

Instruments, control systems, electrical wires and otherhardware

Foundations, structures and platforms

Insulation, paint and corrosion protection

In addition to the direct material and labor costs, the ISBLaddresses indirect costs, such as construction overheads,including: payroll burdens, field supervision, equipmentrentals, tools, field office expenses, temporary facilities, etc.

OSBL Investment

The OSBL investment accounts for auxiliary items necessaryto the functioning of the production unit (ISBL), but whichperform a supporting and non-plant-specific role. OSBLitems considered may vary from process to process. TheOSBL investment could include the installed cost of thefollowing items:

Storage and packaging (storage, bagging and awarehouse) for products, feedstocks and by-products

Steam units, cooling water and refrigeration systems

Process water treating systems and supply pumps

Boiler feed water and supply pumps

Electrical supply, transformers, and switchgear

Auxiliary buildings, including all services andequipment of: maintenance, stores warehouse,laboratory, garages, fire station, change house,cafeteria, medical/safety, administration, etc.

Page 43: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

39

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

General utilities including plant air, instrument air, inertgas, stand-by electrical generator, fire water pumps,etc.

Pollution control, organic waste disposal, aqueouswaste treating, incinerator and flare systems

Working Capital

For the purposes of this study,1 working capital is defined asthe funds, in addition to the fixed investment, that acompany must contribute to a project. Those funds mustbe adequate to get the plant into operation and to meetsubsequent obligations.

The initial amount of working capital is regarded as aninvestment item. This study uses the followingitems/assumptions for working capital estimation:

Accounts receivable. Products and by-productsshipped but not paid by the customer; it representsthe extended credit given to customers (estimated as acertain period – in days – of manufacturing expensesplus depreciation).

Accounts payable. A credit for accounts payable suchas feedstock, catalysts, chemicals, and packagingmaterials received but not paid to suppliers (estimatedas a certain period – in days – of manufacturingexpenses).

Product inventory. Products and by-products (ifapplicable) in storage tanks. The total amount dependson sales flow for each plant, which is directly related toplant conditions of integration to the manufacturing ofproduct‘s derivatives (estimated as a certain period – indays – of manufacturing expenses plus depreciation,defined by plant integration circumstances).

Raw material inventory. Raw materials in storagetanks. The total amount depends on raw materialavailability, which is directly related to plant conditionsof integration to raw material manufacturing(estimated as a certain period – in days – of rawmaterial delivered costs, defined by plant integrationcircumstances).

In-process inventory. Material contained in pipelinesand vessels, except for the material inside the storage

1 The accounting definition of working capital (total current assetsminus total current liabilities) is applied when considering theentire company.

tanks (assumed to be 1 day of manufacturingexpenses).

Supplies and stores. Parts inventory and minor spareequipment (estimated as a percentage of totalmaintenance materials costs for both ISBL and OSBL).

Cash on hand. An adequate amount of cash on handto give plant management the necessary flexibility tocover unexpected expenses (estimated as a certainperiod – in days – of manufacturing expenses).

Other Capital Expenses

Research and Development

Expenses associated with researches to carry the processthrough to commercial scale. This portion of capitalexpenses is difficult to estimate due to the uncertaintiessurrounding the research phase. A value ranging from 2 to5% of the total fixed investment is used.

Site Development

Land acquisition and site preparation, including roads andwalkways, parking, railroad sidings, lighting, fencing, sanitaryand storm sewers, and communications.

Start-up Expenses

There are certain one-time expenses related to bringing aprocess on stream. From the standpoint of time, a variableundefined period exists between the nominal end ofconstruction and the production of quality product in thequantity required. This period is commonly referred to asstart-up.

During the start-up period, expenses are incurred foroperator and maintenance employee training, temporaryconstruction, auxiliary services, testing and adjustment ofequipment, piping, and instruments, etc. Our method ofestimating start-up expenses consists of four components:

Labor component. Represents costs of plant crewtraining for plant start-up, estimated as a certainnumber of days of total plant labor costs (operators,supervisors, maintenance personnel and laboratorylabor).

Commercialization cost. Dependent on raw materialsand products negotiation, on how integrated the plantis with feedstock suppliers and consumer facilities, and

Page 44: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

40

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

on the maturity of the technology. This ranges from0.5% to 5% of the annual manufacturing expenses.

Start-up inefficiency. Takes into account thoseoperating runs when production cannot bemaintained or there are false starts. The start-upinefficiency varies according to the process maturity:5% for new and unproven processes, 2% for new andproven processes, and 1% for existing licensedprocesses, based on annual manufacturing expenses.

Unscheduled plant modifications. The risk that theproduct(s) may not meet specifications required by themarket is a key fault that can occur during the start-upof the plant. As a result, equipment modifications oradditions may be necesssary.

Manufacturing Costs

Manufacturing costs do not include post-plant costs, whichare very company specific. These consist of sales, generaland administrative expenses, packaging, research anddevelopment costs, shipping, etc.

Operating labor and maintenance costs are estimatedsubjectively on the basis of the number of major equipmentitems and similar processes, as noted in the literature.

Plant overhead includes all other non-maintenance (laborand materials) and non-operating labor costs for servicesassociated with the product manufacture. Such overheadsdo not include costs to develop or market the product.

G & A expenses represent general and administrative costsincurred during production such as: administrativesalaries/expenses, research & development, productdistribution and sales costs.

Contingencies

Contingency constitutes an addition to capital costestimations, implemented based on uncertainties that mayincur, to some degree, cost increases. According torecommended practice, two kinds of contingencies areassumed and applied to TPC: process contingency andproject contingency.

Process contingency is utilized in an effort to lessen theimpact of absent technical information or the uncertainty ofthat which is obtained. In that manner, the reliability of theinformation gathered, its amount and the inherent

complexity of the process are decisive for its evaluation.Errors that occur may be related to:

Uncertainty in process parameters, such as severity ofoperating conditions and quantity of recycles

Addition and integration of new process steps

Estimation of costs through scaling factors

Off-the-shelf equipment

Hence, process contingency is also a function of thematurity of the technology, and is usually a value between5% and 25% of the direct costs.

The project contingency is largely dependent on the plantcomplexity and reflects how far the conducted estimation isfrom the definitive project, which includes, from theengineering point of view, site data, drawings and sketches,suppliers’ quotations and other specifications. In addition,during construction some constraints are verified, such as:

Project errors or incomplete specifications

Strike, labor costs changes and weather problems

Intratec’s definitions related to complexity are presented inthe following:

Table 24 – Project Contingency

Plant Complexity Complex Typical Simple

Project Contingency 40% 30% 25%

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 25 – Complexity Criteria Description

Simple Somewhat simple, widely known processes

Typical Regular process

ComplexSeveral unit operations, extreme temperature

or pressure, more instrumentation

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 45: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

41

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

Accuracy of Economic Estimates

The accuracy of estimates gives the realized range of plantcost. The reliability of the technical information available isof major importance.

The non-uniform spread of accuracy ranges (+50 to – 30 %,rather than ±40%, e.g.) is justified by the fact that theunavailability of complete technical information usuallyresults in underestimating rather than overestimatingproject costs.

Location Factor

Economic regional comparisons eventually presented inTechnology Economics studies are based on locationfactors. A location factor is an instantaneous, total costfactor used for converting a base project cost from onegeographic location to another.

A properly estimated location factor is a powerful tool, bothfor comparing available investment data and evaluatingwhich region may provide greater economic attractivenessfor a new industrial venture. Considering this, Intratec hasdeveloped a well-structured methodology for calculatingLocation Factors, and the results are presented for specificregions’ capital costs comparison.

Intratec’s Location Factor takes into consideration thedifferences in productivity, labor costs, local steel prices,equipment imports needs, freight, taxes and duties onimported and domestic materials, regional businessenvironments and local availability of sparing equipment.For such analyses, all data were taken from internationalstatistical organizations and from Intratec’s database.Calculations are performed in a comparative manner, takinga US Gulf Coast-based plant as the reference location. Thefinal Location Factor is determined by four major indexes:Business Environment, Infrastructure, Labor, and Material.

The Business Environment Factor and the InfrastructureFactor measure the ease of new plant installation indifferent countries, taking into consideration the readinessof bureaucratic procedures and the availability and qualityof ports or roads.

Table 26 – Accuracy of Economic Estimates

Reliability Low Moderate HighVery

High

Accuracy+ 50%

- 30%

+ 40%

- 25%

+ 30%

- 20%

+ 20%

- 15%

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Figure 17 – Location Factor Composition

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Infrastructure FactorLabor Index

Location Factor

Material Index Business Environment

Factor

Local Labor IndexRelative SalaryProductivity

Expats Labor

Domestic Material IndexRelative Steel PricesLabor IndexTaxes and FreightRatesSpares

Imported MaterialTaxes and FreightRatesSpares

Ports, Roads, Airportsand Rails (Availabilityand Quality)CommunicationTechnologiesWarehouseInfrastructureBorder ClearanceLocal Incentives

Readiness ofBureaucraticProceduresLegal Protection ofInvestorsTaxes

Page 46: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

42

Intr

ate

c | T

ech

no

log

y Ec

on

om

ics

Me

tho

do

log

y

Labor and material, in turn, are the fundamentalcomponents for the construction of a plant and, for thisreason, are intrinsically related to the plant costs. Thisconcept is the basis for the methodology, which aims torepresent the local discrepancies in labor and material.

Productivity of workers and their hourly compensation areimportant for the project but, also, the qualification ofworkers is significant to estimating the need for foreignlabor.

On the other hand, local steel prices are similarly important,since they are largely representative of the costs ofstructures, piping, equipment, etc. Considering thecontribution of labor in these components, workers’qualifications are also indicative of the amount that needsto be imported. For both domestic and imported materials,a Spare Factor is considered, aiming to represent the needfor spare rotors, seals and parts of rotating equipment.

The sum of the corrected TFI distribution reflects the relativecost of the plant, this sum is multiplied by the Infrastructureand the Business Environment Factors, yielding the LocationFactor.

For the purpose of illustrating the conducted methodology,a block flow diagram is presented in Figure 17 in which thefour major indexes are presented, along with some of theircomponents.

Page 47: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

43

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix A

. Mas

s B

alan

ce &

Str

eam

s P

rop

erti

es

Page 48: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

44

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix A

. Mas

s B

alan

ce &

Str

eam

s P

rop

erti

es

Page 49: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

45

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

en

dix

B. U

tilit

ies

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n B

reak

do

wn

Page 50: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

46

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

en

dix

C. C

arb

on

Fo

otp

rin

t

The process’ carbon footprint can be defined as the totalamount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by theprocess operation.

The emissions presented in this chapter only involve thetarget process operation. Calculations do not consideremissions caused by upstream processes that generatefeedstocks or downstream processes that use any productor by-product. Also, carbon credits from green feedstocks, ifthe case, are not computed.

Although it is difficult to precisely account for the totalemissions generated by a process, it is possible to estimatethe major emissions, which can be divided into:

Direct emissions. Emissions caused by process wastestreams combusted in flares.

Indirect emissions. The ones caused by utilitiesgeneration or consumption, such as the emissions dueto using fuel in furnaces for heating process streams.Fuel used in steam boilers, electricity generation, andany other emissions in activities to support processoperation are also considered to be indirect emissions.

In order to estimate the direct emissions, it is necessary toknow the composition of the streams, as well as theoxidation factor.

Estimation of indirect emissions requires specific dataconcerning the plant location, such as the local electricpower generation profile, and on the plant resources, suchas the type of fuel used.

The assumptions for the process carbon footprintcalculation are presented in Table 29 and the results areprovided in Table 30.

Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2e) is a measure thatdescribes the amount of CO2 that would have the sameglobal warming potential of a given greenhouse gas, whenmeasured over a specified timescale.

All values and assumptions used in calculations are basedon data provided by the Environment Protection Agency(EPA) Climate Leaders Program.

Appendix C. Carbon Footprint

Table 29 – Assumptions for CO2e Emissions Calculation

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 30 – CO2e Emissions (ton/ton prod.)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 51: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

47

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix D

. Pilo

t P

lan

t C

on

stru

ctio

n

Pilot testing of new and unproven processes is a key step inthe development and commercialization of newtechnologies. Of course, much of the important preliminarywork associated with catalyst development and phaseequilibrium is most efficiently (inexpensively) completed inthe laboratory.

However, problems associated with trace quantities ofunwanted side products, difficult material handlingproblems, and multiple reaction steps are not easily scaled-up from laboratory experiments. In such cases, specific unitoperations or the entire process may be analyzed in pilotplants to gain a better insight into the proposed full-scaleoperation.

Sometimes, the pilot plant serves a dual purpose of testingthe process at an intermediate scale and producing enoughmaterial for customers and other interested parties to test.

Table 31 presents general information related to theconstruction of a pilot plant for the technology approachedin this study. Table 32 presents the total fixed investmentrequired to construct such pilot plant.

Appendix D. Pilot Plant Construction

Table 31 – Pilot Plant Construction Information

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 32 – Pilot Plant Construction Cost (USD

Thousands)

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 52: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

48

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix E

. De

taile

d C

apit

al E

xpe

nse

s

Direct Costs Breakdown

Appendix E. Detailed Capital Expenses

Figure 18 – ISBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type

Figure 19 – OSBL Direct Costs Breakdown by Equipment Type

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 53: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

49

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix E

. De

taile

d C

apit

al E

xpe

nse

s

Page 54: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

50

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix F

. Eco

no

mic

Ass

um

pti

on

s

Operational Expenditures

Fixed Costs

Fixed costs are estimated based on the specificcharacteristics of the process. The fixed costs, like operatingcharges and plant overhead, are typically calculated as apercentage of the industrial labor costs, and G & A expensesare added as a percentage of the operating costs.

Appendix F. Economic Assumptions

Table 34 – Working Capital Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 35 – Other Capital Expenses Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 36 – Other Fixed Cost Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Table 37 – Depreciation Value & Assumptions

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 55: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

51

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix F

. Eco

no

mic

Ass

um

pti

on

s

Source: Intratec – www.intratec.us

Page 56: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

52

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

end

ix G

. Re

leas

ed

Pu

blic

atio

ns

The list below is intended to be an easy and quick way toidentify Intratec reports of interest. For a more completeand up-to-date list, please visit the Publications section onour website, www.intratec.us.

TECHNOLOGY ECONOMICS

Propylene Production via Metathesis: Propyleneproduction via metathesis from ethylene and butenes,in a process similar to Lummus OCT.

Propylene Production via Propane

Dehydrogenation: Propane dehydrogenation (PDH)process conducted in moving bed reactors, in aprocess similar to UOP OLEFLEX™.

Propylene Production from Methanol: Propyleneproduction from methanol, in a process is similar toLurgi MTP®.

Polypropylene Production via Gas Phase Process: Agas phase type process similar to the Dow UNIPOL™ PPprocess to produce both polypropylene homopolymerand random copolymer.

Polypropylene Production via Gas Phase Process,

Part 2: A gas phase type process similar to LummusNOVOLEN® for production of both homopolymer andrandom copolymer.

Sodium Hypochlorite Chemical Production: Sodiumhypochlorite (bleach) production, in a widely usedindustrial process, similar to that employed by SolvayChemicals, for example.

Propylene Production via Propane

Dehydrogenation, Part 2: Propane dehydrogenation(PDH) in fixed bed reactors, in a process is similar toLummus CATOFIN®.

Propylene Production via Propane

Dehydrogenation, Part 3: Propane dehydrogenation(PDH) by applying oxydehydrogenation, in a processsimilar to the STAR PROCESS® licensed by Uhde.

Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration: Ethyleneproduction via ethanol dehydration, a process similarto that used by Chematur and Petron.

LLDPE via Solution Process: A solution process similarto Nova Chemicals SCLAIRTECH™ technology forproduction of butene-based LLDPE (linear low densitypolyethylene).

Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2: Ethyleneproduction via ethanol dehydration using a processbased in a patent published by BP Chemicals.

IMPROVEMENT ECONOMICS

Membranes on Polypropylene Plants Vent Recovery:

The Report evaluates membrane units for theseparation of monomer and nitrogen in PP plants,similar to the VaporSep® system commercialized byMTR.

Use of Propylene Splitter to Improve Polypropylene

Business: The report assesses the opportunity ofpurchasing the less valued RG propylene to producethe PG propylene raw material used in a PP plant.

Appendix G. Released Publications

Page 57: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

53

Intr

ate

c | A

pp

en

dix

H. R

eq

ue

st S

ub

mit

ted

to

Intr

ate

c

A major player in the chemical arena made the request for this publication at www.intratec.us (section “Ask for a New Publication”).

Please find below the request submitted to Intratec.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Subject of the Publication

Please describe the technology to be approached in the assessment:

Point to a URL of reference Upload files Describe the technology by yourself

URL address: http://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2009/0082605.pdf

Remarks and Comments

Please provide any other information that may be relevant for the project description:

I need to evaluate the process for production of ethylene via ethanol dehydration described in the patent provided.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Appendix H. Request Submitted to Intratec

Page 58: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2
Page 59: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2
Page 60: Ethylene via Ethanol Dehydration, Part 2

About Intratec

Intratec is an independent research and leading advisory firm for the Chemical and Allied Industries, composed by a mix of consulting professionals, market researchers and skilled engineers with extensive industry experience.

Established in 2002, Intratec has already provided more than 200 reliable, in-depth evaluations of process technologies for the Oil & Gas, Petrochemical, Chemical, Renewable and Energy industries.

From this expertise, Intratec developed a consistent work methodology, continuously tested and proven by our clients.