ethanol america s conference
TRANSCRIPT
PETROBRAS
1
Petrobras and EthanolPerspectives from a Brazilian Oil Company
Ted HelmsGeneral Manager
PETROBRAS New York Office
Ethanol Finance and Investment Americas Conference
PETROBRAS
2
1,462 1,4871,356 805 975 824 378
692600
2,701 2,531 1,897 1,863 1,562 1,466 1,8951,056 4980
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Exxon
Mobil BP
RD Shell
Chevro
nCon
ocoP
hillip
s²
Total
Petrob
as EniRep
sol Y
PF
Oil Gas
4,163 4,0183,253
2,668 2,537 2,290 2,2731,748
1,098
349097109138148
213220
394
0
100
200
300
400
500
Repso
l YPF
Petrob
ras
Conoc
oPhil
lipsEni
Chevro
n
Total
RD ShellBP
Exxon
Mobil
6,400
4,0262,832 2,708 2,610 2,195 2,156
1,233524
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Eni
Repso
l YPF
Petrob
ras
Chevro
n
Conoc
oPhil
ipsTotal
BP
RD Shell
ExxonM
obil
Proved Reserves as of Dec 31, 2005 (billion boe) 2Q2006 Oil & Gas Production (thousand boed)
2005 Refining Capacity (thousand boed) 5Market Value as of September 19, 2006 (US$ billions)
Notes: Based on information from company financials and Wall Street research1 Reflects only those activities relating to the Oil Products business2 Proforma for acquisition of Burlington Resources3 Includes revisions on Bolivian reserves4 Includes volumes added from Unocal acquisition5 Includes equity in affiliates6 Based on capacity of wholly owned refineries
Petrobras: World Class Integrated Public Energy Company
4
22.4
17.6
12.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 10.76.9
3.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
Repso
l YPF³Eni
Total
Conoc
oPhillip
s²
Petrob
ras
Chevro
n
RD Shell¹BP
Exxon
Mobil
6
4
PETROBRAS
3
8691004
11321271 1336
1500 1540 1493
1800
1686 1722 1769 1806 1802 1761 1700 1766
2300
2060
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010
Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Oil Consumption & Production
52%52% 91%91% 100100%%Production/
Consumption
Petrobras’ ProductionBrazilian Consumption
114%114%70%70%
(*) Petrobras' estimate considering an average growth of 2.6 % per year
1684
1783
Self-Sufficiency
PETROBRAS
4
Energy
Industry
Imported OilProducts
ImportedOil
Imported Gas
International OilProduction
LNG
H - Bio
DomesticNatural GasProduction
Biodiesel Oil Productssold in Brazil
InternationalSales
OtherRenewables
Infrastructure
Petrochemical Plants
Brazilian OilProduction
Brazilian Refining
Throughput
InternationalRefining
Overview of the Company's Activities
Ethanol
Expansion/future activities
PETROBRAS
5
Liderar o mercado de petróleo, gás natural e derivados na América Latina, atuando como empresa integrada de energia, com expansão seletiva
da petroquímica e da atividade internacional.
Growth ProfitabilityGrowth ProfitabilitySocial and Environmental Social and Environmental
ResponsibilityResponsibility
Consolidate and increase
competitive advantages in
the Brazilian and South American
oil and oil products market
Develop and lead the domestic
natural gas market and perform in an integrated manner
in the gas and power market in South America
Selectively expand
international activities in an
integrated manner with the
Company’s business
Selectively expand interest
in the petrochemicals
market
Expand participation in biofuels market, lead the domestic
biodiesel production and increase
participation in the ethanol business
Operational, management, technological and human resources excellence
Lead the Latin American oil, natural gas, oil products and biofuels market, working as an integrated energy company, with selective expansion in petrochemical, renewable energy and
international activities.
Corporate Strategy
Corporate Strategy evolving to include International, Gas, Petrochemicals, Bio-fuels
PETROBRAS
6Note: Includes International
US$ 87.1 billion
9%4%
3% 26%
56%
3%
49.3
23.07.5
3.32.31.8
9%4%
2%
59%
24%
2%
31.0
4.712.4
1.01.0
2.3
BP 2006-10(2007-11 Period)
US$ 52.4 billion
BP 2007-11
Petrobras Investment Plan 2007-2011
E&P Downstream G&EPetrochemical Distribution Corporate
PETROBRAS
7
2007-2011 Investments 2011 Target
US$ 136 MM Biodiesel Plants Availability of 855 Thous. m3/year
US$ 140MM H-Bio (Bio-Refining) Processing 425 Thous. m3/year of vegetable oil
US$ 104MM Wind Power
US$ 123MM PhotovoltaicAdditional 240 MW Installed Capacity of
Power Generation from Renewable Sources
US$ 170MM Alcohol pipelines3.5 million m3 Ethanol Exports
US$ 70MM Alcohol Vessel Project
Other Renewable Energy Sources
Investments of US$ 780 MM in development of renewable energy sources and biofuels
Renewable Energy and Biofuels (2007-2011)
PETROBRAS
8
295786
126
147
315
368
237
282777
935128
211
201
224
108
97
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2011
Natural Gas LPG Ethanol** GasolineNaphta Diesel* + QAV Fuel Oil Other
Domestic Refined Products and Natural Gas Market in BrazilTh
ousa
nd b
pd 1,766
2,1173.1% p.y
* Includes Biodiesel (2%)** Assumes 40% of gasoline market
PETROBRAS
9
NGV5.5%
Gasoline (E25)79.7%
Hydrous Ethanol14.8%
Source: ANP and Gás Brasil (2004)
Consumption by Light Vehicle in Brazil
Ethanol MarketEthanol Market--share:share:
14.8% + 19.92% 14.8% + 19.92% ⇒⇒ 34.7%34.7%
Anhydrous Alcohol represents 19.92% of Vehicle consumption
PETROBRAS
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
jan/
04 feb
mar ap
r
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan/
05 feb
mar ap
r
may jun jul
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan/
06 feb
mar
Light Vehicles Sales
FFV Gasoline Diesel Oil Ethanol
Evolution of Flexfuel Automobile Productionl
PETROBRAS
11
LIGHT VEHICLES FLEET(thousand units)
9,08810,463
11,399 12,01912,755
13,506 14,075 14,439 14,680 14,431
3,716
3,4713,221
2,9722,712
2,4492,230 1,996 1,820 1,678
499
546597
632686
734764 782 810
843
335 1,108
1,004807626439288
1435718
9
5
44
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Gasoline Ethanol Diesel Oil CNG FFV
FFV since 2003CNG vehicles
Gradual Replacement of Conventional Engines
PETROBRAS
12
Ethanol: Learning Curve Driving Down Ethanol Prices
Trend (Rotterdam Gasoline Prices)
Prof. Goldemberg, Coelho, Nastari and Lucon - USP
Trend(Anhydrous Ethanol Prices)
More than 400 types of Sugar-Cane
PETROBRAS
13
North and Central America
37%
Europe
9.8%
South America
38%
Asia
16.2%
Brazil35%
Brazil35%
The Potential to Expand World Production Is Enormous
•Ethanol global market is 46.5 Billions Liters• Ethanol as a Fuel is 30.6 Billions Liters, or 67% of total ethanol
production
•Today the ethanol consumption is 2.6% of gasoline MKT• Increasing ethanol to 10% of gasoline will represent 118 Billions Lt
Current Market Distribution of World Consumption
PETROBRAS
14
Brazil Enjoys Enormous Advantages in Ethanol Production
8.3Sugar Cane
(under Brazilian production conditions)
1.9Sugar Beet
1.3 – 1.8Corn
1.2Wheat
Energy Output / Energy InputRaw Material
1.3 – 1.84,000 liter10,000Corn
8.37,080 liter85,000Sugar Cane
Energy Output / Energy Input
Quantity of Ethanol / ha
Production / ha(kg)Raw Material
PETROBRAS
15
Land use in Brazil
851370180
6197
597,626390
• Total country• Native Amazon Forest• Secondary Amazon Forest and Others • Native Forests• Pasture• Temporary Crops• Permanent Crops• Available land • Available land with low impact (*)
Area (Mha)
Type
Source: FAO, 2002 and EMBRAPA (*)
PETROBRAS
16
Petrobras Will Participate Through Export Logistics
Marine Terminal Rio de Janeiro
Marine Terminal São Paulo
New Ethanol Pipeline (800 km)
New Water Wayfor Ethanol Ethanol Export
8.0 Million m3 in 2012
PETROBRAS
17
Petrobras Will Use Ethanol Knowledge to Expand World Distribution
• Recently, Petrobras incorporated Brazil-Japan Ethanol Inc.
• The company will import and distribute Brazilian-produced ethanol in Japan;
• Development of technical and commercial solutions for the reliable and long term supply of alcohol in the Japanese market;
• Petrobras will break into one of the most complex and important energy markets in the World:
• ethanol logistics distribution
• fuel distribution sector in Japan.
Brazil-Japan Ethanol Inc.
PETROBRAS
18
2005to
2007(2% allowable)
2008to
2012(2% required)(5% allowable)
From 2012on
(5% required)
Brazilian market0 – 5.2 million barrels
Petrobras market share0 – 1.3 million barrels
Brazilian market5.2 – 15.7 million barrels
Petrobras market share1.3 -3.8 million barrels
Brazilian market15.7 million barrels
Petrobras market share3.8 million barrels
Law 11.097/2005 – established minimal percentage for biodiesel mix in diesel
• Petrobras target for 2010: Production of 8,200 bpd of Biodiesel
Biodiesel Will Follow Ethanol Trajectory
PETROBRAS
19
Bifuel Production- Two Approaches to Using Vegetable Oil
Complementary and not competitive processes
Agribusiness
Farming
Seeds
or or
or
Ethanol
Methanol
Glycerin + Others
Biodiesel
B2 or B5mixture
orDiesel
Distributors
DieselRefinery
Hydrogen Diesel Fractions
Stations
ProcessedOil
Crushing
Transerestification
PETROBRAS
20
Bio-diesel Production Facilities Underway
BA
MG
CE
Montes Claros
Quixadá
semi-arid region
3 Projects Being Implemented
Capacity: 171 thousand m3/year
Investments: ~ US$ 60 million
Jobs Generations: Construction: 1,200 direct and 400 indirectOperation: 105 directRaw material production:70,000 families
Start up: 4 Q/2007
InputsFamily Agriculture: castor, cotton, and palm.Complementary: soy.
All Petrobras Biodiesel has Social Fuel Seal
Candeias
PETROBRAS
21
• Given to biodiesel producers that:• Purchase a minimum percentage of raw materials from family
agriculture: • 50% NE and semi-arid region• 10% NW and CW region• 30% SE and S region
• Sing a formal contracts with the family agriculture that includes:• Contract period• Value to purchase and price readjustment criteria • Raw material delivery conditions • Safeguards for each party• Identification and agreement that a representative of the farmers
participated in the negotiations• Assure assistance and technical training for the agriculture families
Legal Requirements for Bio-Diesel
Voluntary Social Seal
PETROBRAS
22
0.210.220.300.40R$/litroOper Cost
121085US$ MMInvestment
0.030.030.040.05R$/litroMaintenance
0.0150.020.040.11R$/litroLabor
0.040.050.080.08R$/litroDepreciation
0.020.020.020.05R$/litroEnergy
0.100.100.100.11R$/litroChemicals
100,00065,00035,00010,000Ton/yearCapacity
Laboratory US$ 500,000
Biodiesel Production Cost
Source: Dedini, Intecnial, Lurgi
PETROBRAS
23
Auction Quantity(mil m3) Delivery
NOV/2005 70 JAN/DEZ/2006
MAR/2006 170 JUL/2006 TO JUN/2007
11/JUL/2006
12/JUL/2006
Ofertado 1.266Arrematado 600
10
20
30
40
JAN/DEC/2007
Biodiesel Sales in ANP´s Auction (B100 m3 )
Price (R$/L)
1,90 + ICMS
1,86+ICMS
1,75+ICMS
Voluntary Participation of Petrobras and Refap – start sales ahead of schedule
Results of Auction for Biodiesel
PETROBRAS
24
H-Bio – A Complementary, Proprietary Use of Vegetable Oil
* Of total of Soybean oil exported, 2288 thousand m³ is crude oil, and 535 thousand m³ is refined oil** Estimated volume of imported diesel in 2006 = 1.709 thousand m3 Sources: Abiove e Petrobras
2006-2007
2008
• H-BIO in 4 refineries – using up to 256 thousand m3/year of vegetable oil • 9.1% of total soy oil export• Equivalent to 15% of Diesel imports
• H-BIO in 5 refineries• Using up tp 425 thousand m3/year of vegetable oil • 15.1 % of total soy oil export• Equivalent to 25% of Diesel imports
Main advantages:• No waste
• Simple logistics
• Improves diesel quality
• Flexible vegetable oil source
PETROBRAS
25
Continuing Research Efforts for Renewable Energy
• Example: BioLignocellulosic Bioethanol
• Raw material: sugar cane bagasse • Proprietary process• Successful ongoing bench-scale experiments
• Patent issued• End of tests: 4thQ 2006
• Pilot plant start-up: 2ndQ 2007• Demonstration plant start-up: 3rdQ 2010
• Budget: US$ 32 million• 66 R&D projects• 6 Research Lines
• Biofuels• Biomass• Wind
• Solar Photovoltaic• Solar Thermal• Other renewables
PS2
Slide 25
PS2 PETROBRAS S.A.; 24/5/2004