estimating the value of acme
DESCRIPTION
Estimating the Value of ACME. Steps in a valuation. Estimate cost of capital (WACC) Debt Equity Project financial statements and FCF Calculate horizon value Discount at WACC to Calculate V OPS Calculate value of equity. Estimating the required return on the components of WACC. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
DES Chapter 4 1
Estimating the Value of ACME
DES Chapter 4 2
Steps in a valuation
Estimate cost of capital (WACC)DebtEquity
Project financial statements and FCF
Calculate horizon value
Discount at WACC to Calculate VOPS
Calculate value of equity
DES Chapter 4 3
Estimating the required return on the components of WACC
ACME has debt and equityThe cost of capital for each type of
financing depends on it risk, as perceived by the investor, and taxes.
Higher risk securities have higher required rates of return.
If payments (like interest) are deductible, then the cost to the firm is lowered.
DES Chapter 4 4
Acme's WACC
Debt: Acme has 2 types of debt—short-term and long-term. The short-term rate is 9%.
Long-term debt: 8% coupon debt with 26 years left to maturity are selling for $900.15 each. What is the cost (to ACME) of this source of capital?
.wrwr)T1(WACC SSDD
DES Chapter 4 5
Bond prices
In general the price of a bond depends on its coupon payments, its maturity, and its risk.
ACME’s bonds pay $40 every 6 months, and $1,000 when they mature in 26 years.
DES Chapter 4 6
Bond prices
nD
n
1tt
D
cB )r1(
M
)r1(
2/MrV
M is the maturity value, or $1,000 for ACME
rC is the coupon rate, or 0.08, which is 8% for ACME
n is the maturity, or 26 x 2 = 52 6-month periods.
rD is the discount rate.
DES Chapter 4 7
ACME’s bond price
nD
n
1tt
D )r1(
000,1$
)r1(
4015.900$
A financial calculator or a spreadsheet can be used to solve for rD, which is 4.5% for a 6-month period, or 9% per year.
DES Chapter 4 8
Cost of long-term debt
The cost of debt when it was issued 4 years ago was 8%, but the cost now is different because the bond price has declined from $1,000 to $900.15
Now the cost is 9%
DES Chapter 4 9
Cost of equity
The cost of equity (its required return) depends on how risky the stock is to investors.
This risk is measured by “Beta” and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) relates Beta to the required return.
DES Chapter 4 10
ACME’s cost of equity
CAPM: rS = rRF + Beta (RPM)
Beta = 1.1
rRF = 5.4% = long term rate on Treasuries
RPM = market risk premium = 6%
rS = 5.4% + 1.1(6%) = 12%
DES Chapter 4 11
Target weights and WACC
Target is 30% debt, 70% equity
Tax rate = 40%
WACC = 0.70(12%) + 0.30(9%)(1-0.40)
= 10.0%
This is the discount rate to be used for the free cash flows.
DES Chapter 4 12
Projections
Next chapter will have the nuts and bolts of projections. For now, assume that your financial analyst has already made the projections on the following page.
DES Chapter 4 13
Income statement projectionsIncome Statements Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sales 4,512.44 4,873.44 5,165.84 5,475.80 5,804.34 Costs of Goods Sold 2,797.71 3,021.53 3,202.82 3,394.99 3,598.69 Sales, General and Administrative 902.49 974.69 1,033.17 1,095.16 1,160.87 Depreciation 225.62 243.67 258.29 273.80 290.22
Operating Profit 586.62 633.55 671.56 711.85 754.56 Interest on original debt 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 80.00
Interest Expense on new debt 25.73 34.35 42.84 50.18 57.95 Interest expense 105.73 114.35 122.84 130.18 137.95
Earnings Before Taxes 480.89 519.19 548.72 581.67 616.61 Taxes 192.35 207.68 219.49 232.67 246.65
Net Income 288.53 311.52 329.23 349.00 369.97 Dividends 104.89 135.10 191.43 202.90 215.05
Additions to retained earnings 183.64 176.41 137.80 146.11 154.91
DES Chapter 4 14
Balance Sheet Projections
Balance Sheets Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Cash 45.12 48.73 51.66 54.76 58.04 Inventory 631.74 682.28 723.22 766.61 812.61 Accounts receivable 1,128.11 1,218.36 1,291.46 1,368.95 1,451.09
Total current assets 1,804.98 1,949.38 2,066.34 2,190.32 2,321.74 Gross PPE 3,443.32 3,867.49 4,271.98 4,700.75 5,155.24 Accumulated depreciation 1,187.09 1,430.77 1,689.06 1,962.85 2,253.07
Net PPE 2,256.22 2,436.72 2,582.92 2,737.90 2,902.17
Total assets 4,061.20 4,386.09 4,649.26 4,928.22 5,223.91
DES Chapter 4 15
Balance Sheet ProjectionsLiabilities Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Accounts payable 451.24 487.34 516.58 547.58 580.43 Accrued expenses 225.62 243.67 258.29 273.79 290.22 Short-term debt 381.71 476.04 557.55 643.90 735.40
Total current liabilities 1,058.57 1,207.05 1,332.42 1,465.27 1,606.05 Long-term debt 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00
Total liabilities 2,058.57 2,207.05 2,332.42 2,465.27 2,606.05 Common stock 600.00 600.00 600.00 600.00 600.00 Retained earnings 1,402.63 1,579.04 1,716.84 1,862.95 2,017.86
Total common equity 2,002.63 2,179.04 2,316.84 2,462.95 2,617.86
Total liabilities and equity 4,061.20 4,386.09 4,649.26 4,928.22 5,223.91
DES Chapter 4 16
FCF Projections Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Operating profit 586.62 633.55 671.56 711.85 754.56 Tax on operating profit 234.65 253.42 268.62 284.74 301.83 NOPATa 351.97 380.13 402.94 427.11 452.74 Operating current assets 1,804.97 1,949.37 2,066.34 2,190.32 2,321.74 Operating current liabilities 676.86 731.01 774.87 821.37 870.65 NOWCb 1,128.11 1,218.36 1,291.47 1,368.95 1,451.09
Total operating capital c 3,384.34 3,655.08 3,874.39 4,106.85 4,353.26
Investment in total net operating capitald 279.45 270.74 219.31 232.46 246.41 FCFe 72.52 109.39 183.63 194.65 206.33
DES Chapter 4 17
ROIC Projections
Long term projected growth is 6%
Actual
2009 Projected
2010 Projected
2011 Projected
2012 Projected
2013 ROIC = (NOPAT/Beginning capital) 11.3% 11.2% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% Growth in Sales 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Growth in NOPAT 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Growth in total net op. cap. 9.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% Growth in FCF 376.6% 50.8% 67.9% 6.0% 6.0%
Growth in dividends
-34.5%
28.8%
41.7%
6.0%
6.0%
DES Chapter 4 18
Horizon Value
.gWACC
)g1(FCF
gWACC
FCFHV N1N
N
.75.467,5$
06.0100.0
)06.01(33.206$)1(20132013
million
gWACC
gFCFHV
DES Chapter 4 19
Value of operations
.million92.272,4$
)10.01(
75.467,5$
)10.01(
33.206$
)10.01(
65.194$
)10.01(
63.183$
)10.01(
38.109$V
44
32Op
DES Chapter 4 20
Value of equity
Vequity = VOPS + non-operating assets – debt = $4,272.92 + 0 – debtDebt: $381.71 million short term + 1 million
long-term bonds at $900.15 each = 381.71 + 900.15 = $1,281.86 million
Vequity = $4,272.92 - 1,281.86 = $2,991.06 million
DES Chapter 4 21
10 million shares outstanding
Value per share = $29.91
Per share equity