estimate demand function & forecast demand

8/9/2019 Estimate Demand Function & Forecast Demand

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&STIMATE DEMAND FUNCTION ORECAST DEMAND&OR INTERNET EMAIL


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Contents

Introduction1

pecifying the DemandFunction2

&egression Estimation3

emand Forecasting4

&onclusion Discussion5


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Introduction

mprovement in ICTliteracy

eclining Cost ofComputing

hanging Culture

nables a Telco operanables a Telco operat o plan the future activitio plan the future activiti o make decisions on investo make decisions on invest


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Demand Function

DemandDemandforfor

InternetInternet&&

EmailEmailserviceservice

TT

DD II

Telephonesubscribers

Governmentinitiatives

Consumer sPrice Index

( )CPI

Dependent variable

Quantity demand

Independent variables

Telephone

subscribers

CPI

Government

initiatives


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Specifying the Demand Function

vLinear = +a b T+ cI+ eDv og Linear

=n Q ln f+ ln T+ lnI+ jDvLegend

:Q Quantity demand :T Telephone subscribers : I Consumer s Price Index

:D : :0 Year 1996 to Year 2001 and 1

Year 2002 to Year 2009

v


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Data

Year umber of&nternet

mailsubscribers

umber ofelephone linesubscribers

onsumerrice Index overnmentCTInitiatives

1996 ,2 504 ,255 049 ,1 907 01997 ,10 195 ,341 622 ,2 089 0

1998 ,18 984 ,523 529 ,2 284 0

1999 ,25 535 ,669 113 ,2 392 0

2000 ,40 497 ,767 411 ,2 540 0

2001 ,61 532 ,827 195 ,2 900 0

2002 ,73 468 ,883 108 ,3 176 12003 ,85 500 ,939 013 ,3 377 1

2004 ,93 444 ,991 239 ,3 632 1

2005 ,115 000 , ,1 243 994 ,4 055 1

2006 ,130 000 , ,1 884 076 ,4 356 1

2007 ,202 348 , ,2 742 059 ,4 896 1

2008 ,234 000 , ,3 446 411 ,5 747 12009 ,250 000 , ,3 391 484 ,6 541 1

Sources:


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Model Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardized

Coefficients

t .Sig . %95 0 ConfidenceInterval for B

B .Std Error Beta LowerBound

UpperBound

1 ( )Constant - .51515 728 .15393 024 - .3 347 .007 - .85813 523- .17217 932

ACCESS .039 .009 .514 .4 185 .002 .018 .060CPI .23 869 .8 513 .411 .2 804 .019 .4 901 .42 836ICT .17333 013 .7983 213 .109 .2 171 .050 - .454 694 .35120 720

COEFFICIENTS

= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D


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COEFFICIENTSModel Unstandardized CoefficientsStandardi

zedCoefficients

t .Sig . %95 0 ConfidenceInterval for B

B.

StdError

Beta

LowerBound

UpperBound

1 ( )Constant - .2 241 .6 164 -.364 .724 - .15 974 .11 493

ACCESS .2 013 .786 .1 226 .2 562 .028 .262 .3 763CPI - .1 865 .1 952 -.546 -.956 .362 - .6 213 .2 484ICT .824 .502 .324 .1 642 .132 -.294 .1 943

ogLinear

t-statisticsR square value : < 90 %


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Demand Function

vFitted by 99%vSignificance

t statistic for all independent variables > 2 p value < 0.05

= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D

= - . + .51515 728 0 039 T + .3 869 +.7333 013 D

Overall modelforestimated demandfunction is statisticallysignificant

All the independentvariables areindividuallysignificant


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Conclusion

vModel is satisfactory

vLimitations

Quality of Data

Amount of ICT penetration

vThis is use full to

A Telco planning to invest more in thismodel

A good product development will do it!!!


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Thank You !Thank You !

estimate demand function & forecast demand

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