est overview feb 2010 ac v2
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Energy Smart Technologies InsightResearch Agenda and ExamplesFebruary 2010
© Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010
[1v9.01]
Energy Smart Technologies Team
Energy Smart Technologies: Research Agenda ExamplesEnergy Efficiency
• High-temperature superconductors• Key future developments• Industry map
• Heat pumps• Key factors driving uptake / barriers• Country-specific analyses
• Waste heat recovery
Digital Energy
• Smart grid White Paper• Demand response markets
• Value chain, roles and players• Market structure, sizes and growth
• Home energy management• Stimulus fund flows• Evidence on consumer engagement• European smart metering
2
Advanced Transportation
• Electric vehicles:• Key product launches 2010• Value chain analysis• Public markets opportunities
• Traction batteries:• Chinese manufacturers• Lithium battery cathode materials
• Fuel cell vehicles
Power Storage
• Flywheel storage• Technology, business models, investment
trends, regulatory issues• US electricity markets & storage
• How storage fits into the market• Regulatory barriers and solutions to
adoption• Other technologies, batteries, fuel cells
Digital Energy: Demand Response Study
ConsumerService
ProviderTechnology
Provider Reseller Purchaser
Plays a supporting role by enabling participation and implementation of
demand response programs
Suppliers of demand response capacity
Middle-menEnd users of demand
response capacity
3
C&I customers
Residential
EnerNOC
ComVerge
Baltimore Gas & Electric
ERCOT
Cooper Power Systems
Ziphany
Skipping Stone
Conservation Resource Solutions
• Energy audits• Measurement &
verification• Reseller selection• Program design
• Interval metering• Concentrators• Web servers• Software platforms• Communications
• Supplies capacity to reseller or purchaser
• Participates in incentive or price-based programs
• Primary goal is to buy and sell demand response
• Function as aggregators• Single point of contact for
purchasers
• Obtains demand response from reseller or consumer
• Ensures grid stability
Digital Energy: Consumer Response to Dynamic Tariffs
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% Peak load reduction in pilot study
4
0
5
10
15
Sydney Colorado Baltimore Washington
DC
Ontario New Jersey Missouri
CPP with automation Critical peak pricing (CPP) Time of use (TOU)
Digital Energy: 2009 ARRA Smart Grid Stimulus
0.3
0.1
0.1
Transmission Systems
Customer Systems
Equipment Manufacturing
Battery:
Battery: Sodium-ion
3%
Battery: Lead
carbon1%
Smart Grid Investment Grants ($bn)Smart Grid Demo Projects: Power Storage Technologies
5
5.2
2.0
0.5
0.3
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Integrated / Cross-cutting
AMI
Distribution Systems
Transmission Systems
Stimulus award Private investment
CAES32%
Battery: Li-ion
20%
Flow batteries
17%
Flywheel15%
Battery: Unknown
12%
Total = $185m
Power Storage:Technologies by power, energy and relative size
Fuel
Cells
1000
100
10
Energy Density (Wh/kg)
Ultracapacitors
Flywheels
CAESVa-R
NaSLi - ion
Pb-A
ZnBr
NiCd
Power Quality
Energy
6
0.0
1
1
0.1
Energy Density (Wh/kg)
Ultracapacitors
Capacitor
10 100001
Pumped Hydro
Power Denisty (W/kg)1000100
Power Density (W/kg)
Energy Management
Notes: CAES = compressed air energy storage; ZnBr = Zinc Bromide flow battery; PbA = lead acid; VaR = Vanadium redox flow battery; Li – ion = lithium ion; NaS = sodium sulfur; NiCd – nickel cadmium.
Power Storage:Worldwide Grid-Scale Power Storage Capacity
1000
10000
100000
1000000
MW, log scale
7
1
10
100
1000
Pumped
hydro
CAES NaS Flow
batteries
Flywheels PbA Ni-Cad Li-ion
Planned / proposed Installed
Energy Efficiency:Capabilities of High-Temperature Superconductors
8
Energy Efficiency:High-Temperature Superconductors Value Chain
9
Advanced Transportation:Chinese power battery companies by main chemistry
30
40
50
60No. companies
Source: Bloomberg New Energy FinanceCompanies are listed by start-date, but their top present-day power battery chemistry is used to determine their category, even if they were previously focused on another technology.
0
10
20
1982 1984 1986 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Lithium Nickel Lead-Acid
Advanced Transportation:CO2 emissions of selected vehicles
0.18
0.19
0.19
0.30
Chevy Volt - 40+ miles
Toyota Prius
Tesla Roadster
Toyota Corolla
0.15
0.17
0.17
0.18
Nissan Leaf
Chevy Volt - sub 40 miles
Chevy Volt - overall
Chevy Volt - 40+ miles
CO2 Emissions (tonne/1000 miles)
Note: Based on CO2 intensities of standard gasoline and of average US electricity generation. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Advanced Transportation:Penetration of EVs in the European car fleet
150
200
250
300
350
ICEV
12
0
50
100
150
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
PHEV
BE
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ICEV = Internal combustion engine vehicle, BEV = Battery electric vehicle, PHEV = Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
Advanced Transportation and Carbon Markets: Change in EU ETS BAU emissions resulting from EVs, 2030
3,116
64
-14-13
3,153
3,100
3,120
3,140
3,160
3,180
3,200
13
3,000
3,020
3,040
3,060
3,080
3,100
Base case EV power baseload
Load smoothing
Refinery reduction
Base with EV
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: High growth in electric vehicle numbers assumed
Energy Smart Technologies Insight
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
+44 20 7092 8800www.newenergyfinance.comwww.newcarbonfinance.comsales@newenergyfinance.com
© Bloomberg New Energy Finance, 2004-2010
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, London2nd Floor, New Penderel House, 283-288 High HolbornLondon, WC1V 7HPPhone: +44 207 092 8800