ESPON – ReRisk: Regions at Risk of Fuel Poverty

Territorial European Research in Support of Public Policies

Formulation,Bucharest, 25th November 2010

ReRisk: Regions at Risk of Fuel Poverty

Aim:

Identify the most economicaly vulnerable European regions

impacts from the rising of energy prices on the development structure of

European regions

Policies to enhance the Socioeconomic Base of the most Vulnerable EU Regions

I. Identify Economic Vulnerability of EU Regions’

II. Clustering of the EU Regions

III. Building of Future Scenarios

IV. Policy Recommendations

ReRisk Methodology

I. Vulnerability to Rising Energy prices287 EU Regions (NUTS II – 2006)

5 Categories of Indicators Climate Conditions Economic Structure Transport Dependency Social Dimension Production Potential of Renewables

In-depth analysis in 3 dimensions: Economic Vulnerability Transport Dependence Social Vulnerability

Industry + Transport + Households = 84% of Total Energy Consumption

II. ReRisk Clustering of EU Regions

Clustering: Identification process of groups of regions with similar levels of vulnerability and development potential

Used K-means procedure)

Regions included: 237 out of the 287 NUTS II regions in EU 27

Not included: 50 regions (missing data)Main Data Gaps: Iceland, Denmark, Switzerland, Norway and the French Overseas Territories

II. ReRisk Typologies - EU Regions

Typology 1a “Regions with problems and potential”

Typology 1b “Regions well-off, with trouble ahead”

Typology 2 “Regions struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter future”

Typology 3 “Regions wealthy and commuting”

Typology 4 “Regions cool and windy but working”

Typology 1a: Regions with problems and potentialRegions with the lowest level of employment in industries with high energy purchases

Economic structure rather robust Low exposure of industries to rising energy pricesHigher than average unemployment rates in 2007Low energy intensityLow level of workers commuting to other regionsMedium disposable income in the households High summer temperaturesModerate winter temperatures

Typology 1a: Regions with problems and potential

I. Service Oriented Urban Centres / Capital Areas

(Paris, Berlin, Rome, Budapest, Amsterdam, Madrid,

Stockholm, Bucharest, Athens, Sofia and others) Changes in Transport Patterns may appear (e.g. commuting)

II. Semi-Rural / Tourist-Oriented / Coastal / Island

Regions (South Europe)

High Photovoltaic (PV) Potential Medium-high Wind Power Potential

Typology 1b:Regions well-off, with trouble ahead”Central-industrialized regions / industrial coastal -harbours /and Pentagon areas (around central Europe)

Medium level of employment in industries with high energy purchase

High level of industrialization Long-term structural unemployment rates Alternative energy resources: low wind power

and low PV and solar energy potential

Medium level maximum summer temperature Warm mean temperatures in winter Rather low fuel costs

Typology 2:Struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter futureThe most vulnerable regions (East and Southern parts of Europe)

Geographically dispersed Large number of jobs in industries with high

energy purchases

Important share of GDP on fuel costs Low levels of commuting to other regions Low level of disposable income in householdsWind and PV potential High summer temperatures requiring cooling

appliances More centrally placed regions: hot summers and

very cold winters

Exposed to a very high level of long-term unemployment rates

Typology 3: “Wealthy and commuting regions”

Regions belonging to the Pentagon “hinterland”

High potential for polycentric development

Low potential for wind power and PV and solar energy

Medium level maximum summer temperature

Moderate mean minimum wind temperature

Very high level of workers commuting

Typology 4: “Cool and windy but working”

Most of the regions in Ireland, Sweden and Finland

Rural characteristics / Sparsely Populated Areas Heavy industrial base Large-sized regions Very high wind power potential Medium-high percentage of employment in industries

with high energy purchase

Average fuel costs Below average percentage of workers commuting to

other regions

Very low long-term unemployment rates Medium disposable income of households Low PV potential Extremely low max July temperatures Very low mean min Jan temperatures

III. Scenario - Building Process

Scenarios: Images of the future+ Policy packages

Images of the future for 2030: plausible visions that shed light on the implications of different development trends on a system.

Common hypothesis: energy prices will remain at a high level, but the political response to this challenge is different

Elaboration with the help of external experts

III.Scenario - Building Process

Two Phases (Scenarios=Images + Policies)

Identification of• Drivers• Actors• Trends

Construction of the Images

Setting Out the Four Images

• Definition of Hypotheses• CCA• Selection & Validation by Experts

Policy measures

III. Scenario 1 “Green High-tech”

Energy-related policies • Large-scale renewables connected by the European grid and small-scale renewables for local consumption • Energy from waste and material recovery from recycling

Other policy domains • High investment in R&D and education • ICT and infrastructure policies • International climate change agreements on GHG • Participatory planning processes

Assumption: Quick Development of Renewable Energy Sources

Regions-H:•gain greater influence on energy policy•can specialize in certain types of renewable energy production•gain from cooperation and shared networks

PoliciesGovernance• Increased autonomy for regions with regard to energy policy priorities

Region with opportunities • Regions with high PV and wind potential • Rural regions with natural resources and access to large cities

Regions experiencing threats

• Regions with high fuel costs • Regions with industries with high energy purchases (need for adaption)

III. Scenario 1 “Green High-tech” Expected performance of regional typologies

Typology 1a “With problems and potential” Highly favourable for rural and coastal regions with high solar and wind potentialTypology 1 b “Well-off, with trouble ahead”Need for developing renewable resources others than solar and wind

Typology 2 ”Struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter future”Possible positive impact if resources for the development of renewables can be found

Typology 3 “Wealthy and commuting” Strong opportunities for polycentric development

Typology 4 “Cool and windy, but working” Strong positive impact on Nordic and Irish regions with high wind potential

III. Scenario 2 “Energy-efficient Europe”

PoliciesEnergy-related policies • Energy efficiency all along the chain • Nuclear phase-out • Large-scale renewables • Increased gas imports

Other policy domains • Technological development in efficient technologies (R&D) • Regionalisation of economies, polycentric development • Hybrid / electric cars and car-sharing • Binding environmental policies in planning

Assumption: greater use of natural gas by 2030 while trying to keep Europe’s energy dependency within limits through important efficiency gains in all sectors and a move towards more regionalized economiesRegions-H:•at high risk of supply interruptions when depend on gas supplies from only one producer•economic development will probably follow a fairly balanced and more sustainable path

Governance• National energy efficiency strategies implemented on local level

Region with opportunities • Regions with energy-intensive industries but with clean technologies and access to secure gas supplies; agricultural regions Regions experiencing threats

• Regions dependent on long-distance freight transport (islands,

remote..) and commuting

III.Scenario 2 “Energy-efficient Europe” Expected performance of regional typologies

Typology 1a “With problems and potential” Negative for the most peripheral coastal areas

Typology 1b “Well-off, with trouble ahead”Strong positive impact on the competitiveness of the more industrialized Pentagon areas Typology 2 ”Struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter future”Highly positive if affordable clean energy technologies can be accessed by industries in these regions

Typology 3 “Wealthy and commuting” Living standards could be negatively affected in these areas due to increased costs on car ownership

Typology 4 “Cool and windy, but working” Strong positive impact on the competitiveness of industrial strongholds in the North, but possible negative impacts of increased transport costs

III.Scenario 3:Nuclear Energy for Big Regions

Assumption: present plans are actually implemented in a large number of Member States to expand the use of nuclear energyRegions-H:•The power sector will remain highly centralized (few players are able to carry out the needed investment)•Logical consequence: “go electric” both in industry and transport•Decisions little influenced by local and regional policy makers

PoliciesEnergy-related policies • Grid extension • High level of investment in nuclear energy and security • Renewables take off, but stagnate

Other policy domains • Moderate investment in R&D and education • No international agreements on GHG but European climate change policies • Electrification of the transport system

Governance• Centralized (national and EU level)

Region with opportunities • Regions with industries with high electricity consumption and central urban regions

Regions experiencing threats

• Regions with high l/t unemployment rates and/ or low disposable income • Peripheral regions

Expected performance of regional typologies

Typology 1a “With problems and potential” Favourable for Metropolitan and Pentagon regions with high levels of employment in the knowledge economy

Typology 1 b “Well-off, with trouble ahead”Need for accelerating transition to more service-oriented activities

Typology 2 ”Struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter future”Increased burden on households, due to rising costs for heating and fuel purchases Typology 3 “Wealthy and commuting” Favourable, due to increased electrification of transport systems

Typology 4 “Cool and windy, but working” Favourable only for industries with high electricity consumption

III.Scenario 3 “Nuclear Energy for Big Regions”

III.Scenario 4 “Business as Usual?” Assumption: choosing (clean) coal to fill the gap of dwindling oil reservesRegions:•benefit of mining and harbour regions•large number of urban areas, will face severe social problems over longer periods of time (increases in consumer prices)•coal power plants’ production will become more expensive when technologies after widely deployment of carbon capture and storage (high energy prices provoke continued backlashes in a world economy that is not able to function “as usual”)PoliciesEnergy-related policies • Increased use of coal and gas for electricity generation • Phase-out of nuclear Lack of investment in the retrofitting of buildings and local networks

Other policy domains • Low R&D • Low investment in education • No agreements on GHG, removal of European ETS • Inadequate urban planning

Governance• Protectionist (national and EU)

Region with opportunities • Medium-sized cities surrounded by resource rich areas • Coal and harbour regions

Regions experiencing threats• Urban regions with l/t unemployment rate and lowest income • Regions with energy-intensive industries • Tourism-dependent regions

Expected performance of regional typologies

Typology 1a “With problems and potential” Increasing poverty and overcrowding in metropolitan areas

Typology 1 b “Well-off, with trouble ahead”Weaker impact on harbour regions, danger for industrial areas to slide into the category of struggling regions

Typology 2 ”Struggling, looking for jobs and a brighter future”Job oportunities for Eastern coal regions, but “no way out” for the re

Typology 3 “Wealthy and commuting” Deteriorating infrastructures in cities and urban sprawl

Typology 4 “Cool and windy, but working” Strong risk of loosing industrial base and employment

III. Scenario 4 “Business as Usual?”

IV. Policy Recommendations

Actions to be taken on:

Local level

Regional level

National level

European level

Reduce vulnerability

Grasp opportunities

IV. Policy RecommendationsGeneral Policy Recommendations (Good Governance)

•Promote energy solidarity between regions and territories •Strengthen regional and local networks •Fund and stabilize transnational research agencies •Promote awareness among regional policy makers on the impact of rising • energy prices and the need for economic diversification •Define a vision for a regional energy model 2050 •Push municipal leadership in public-private partnerships

Spatial Planning Policies and Strategies to Promote Renewable Energy Sources

•Develop integrated spatial planning instruments •Establish urban planning principles for solar energy use •Implement Urban Metabolism procedures •Promote industrial symbiosis and/or industrial eco-parks

IV. Policy RecommendationsEnvironmental Protection and Risk Prevention

•Sustainable use of biocrops •Prepare for climate change impacts in the regional energy infrastructure Policies to Accelerate Deployment of Renewable Energy Sources•Evaluate the feasible potential of all renewable sources in the region •Incorporate solar and wind facilities in urban areas •Accelerate the transition to non-fossil fuels in the aviation industry

Policies to Promote Energy Efficiency•Improve the data on energy use and efficiency in Europe •Involve end users in energy efficiency programmes and policies

•Create a market for energy efficiency •Improve efficiency of office design and work arrangements •BAT (Best Available Technologies) for industrial energy efficiency

IV. Policy RecommendationsPolicies to Fight Energy Poverty

•Improved transparency and information on energy consumption

•Consumer Awareness and Education; involvement of end-users

•Social policies

IV. Relevance of Policy Measures for Regional Typologies

Policy measures have a different priority in each region typology and under different scenario assumptions.

Regions with unfavourable economic structure and high demand for heating and cooling (typology 3)• industrial diversification strategies in order to conserve competitiveness• construction of efficient networks

Regions with high level of commuting (typology 3) or at the periphery (mainly typology 1a and 4) with important dependence on air travelaction in the field of mobility and freight transport

IV.Relevance of Policy Measures for Regional Typologies

Regions of typologies 1b and 2 and under the assumptions of the “Business as Usual?” scenario

•Social policies•innovative financing measures on municipal level

Regions with low disposable income but considerable PV potential•urban solar planning tools (necessary information to achieve the greatest deployment of these technologies at the lowest cost possible)•building new nuclear plants (large baseload capacity - electricity that is being produced 24 hours a day)

A critical question in this context is acceptance and consumer preferences, for example for “green tariffs”.

Romanian Resultsp.14:

After Bulgaria, Romania is the country that employs the largest amount of energy per million € of industrial gross value added (16.06 TJ), followed by Latvia (12.46 TJ), Luxemburg (10.10 TJ), Estonia (9.17 TJ) and Cyprus (5.80 TJ).

In the 2nd group of regions, in which 7-10% of employment in industries with high energy purchases, we find some belonging to countries that fare worse in the EU comparison of industrial energy purchases: Romania (Centru) and Hungary as well as Estonia and Latvia.

p.17

Rising energy prices are bound to become a serious problem in an area, which extends from Eastern Germany to the New Member States, especially those with a very low disposable income, such as Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Poland. Energy costs represent a much greater strain on households budgets in these regions, which additionally have a high demand for heating in the winter time.

Romanian Results

Divergence in energy spending are especially great in the mining industry, with Romania spending up to 20% more on energy purchases than the sector on EU average, while France and Finland fare considerably better than the rest of EU countries with mining activities

Values of Indicators per Romanian RegionIndicators RO11 RO12 RO21 RO22 RO31 RO32 RO41 RO42 Mean EU

Max Temp July 35.2 33.0 33.7 36.1 37.8 36.7 36.0 No Data 31.70

Min Temp Jan -14.5 -17.4 -15.4 -12.7 -12.5 -12.7 -11.7 No Data -8.30

% Empl Ind - High Energy Purchases

5.64 8.14 3.79 5.37 5.39 6.78 4.25 5.76 4.48

% Fuel Costs of Freight Transport

5.25 3.38 3.40 4.27 4.59 1.99 2.91 4.65 2.58

% Workers Commuting

0.61 0.22 0.65 0.71 3.39 0.29 0.57 0.24 9.82

Long-term Unemployment Rate

42.72 46.36 51.51 51.75 50.98 49.30 51.89 53.30 39.22

Disposable Income in Households

3,904.70 3,874.50 3,146.00 3,733.80 3,549.60 7,164.30 3,612.70 4,543.70 13,435.81

Wind Power Potential

76,352.00 35,292.44 224,228.80 282,158.00 134,724.00 9,298.24 75,199.20 95,270.00136,600.5

0

PV Potential1,129.82 1,183.21 1,158.20 1,237.72 1,156.47 1,163.71 1,138.34 No Data 984.58

Typology 2 2 2 2 2 1a 2Not

Clustered1a & 1b

Need for Further Research

The main limitation of the analysis carried out in the ReRisk project is related to the fact that it is based on 2005, i.e. pre-crisis data.

Some of the indicators elaborated in this project are appropriate to measure the economic and social impacts of the present recession and should be recalculated when more recent data becomes available. This will make it possible to draw a pre- and after-crisis profile for the NUTS II regions.

Issues that should be explored in more depth through focussed research on NUTS 3 level, using data from regional and national sources, are the actual extent of poverty and the transport modes used for commuting. The regional profiles elaborated in this project could be completed as comparable data on renewable energy resources other than solar and wind becomes available.

THANK YOU

Clustering Methodology

NoNo

Yes

Variables / Indicators

Step 1. Data Quality Checking

Step 2. Data Preparation

Step 3. Data Evaluation

Step 4. Variables Weighting

Step 5. Clustering

K-means Geodemographics

Evaluation

Labelling, Visualisation, Interpretation

Regional Typology & Maps

New Variables/ Indicators

Mean Values of Indicators per TypologyIndicators Typology 1a Typology 1b Typology 2 Typology 3 Typology 4 Mean EU

Max Temperature July 32.36 30.66 33.70 30.46 26.17 31.70

Min Temperature January -6.21 -7.55 -11.80 -6.81 -17.59 -8.30

% Employment in Industries with High Energy Purchases

3.41 5.22 5.28 3.60 6.14 4.48

Fuel Costs of Freight Transport

1.93 1.89 5.23 1.73 2.37 2.58

% Workers Commuting4.28 13.71 3.54 48.70 3.67 9.82

Long-term Unemployment Rate

39.15 37.00 48.44 36.51 18.75 39.22

Disposable Income in Households

14,176.55 15,968.78 7,144.57 16,917.15 12,631.45 13,435.81

Wind Power Potential108,004.2

369,263.38

153,859.09

65,568.82843,163.2

7136,600.5

0

PV Potential 1,065.27 896.13 1,041.70 857.19 833.83 984.58

Total Nº of Regions 91 73 47 15 11 237

Regional Case Studies and Survey

Four case studies on regional energy initiatives

A survey of 41 regional energy agencies and expert interviews (mid-2009)

valuable information on the scope of action and priorities of regional policy makers

Analysis on 4 key aspects: Distinctions in Policy Approaches

(centralised vs decentralised public authorities) Key Differences in Mechanisms

(policies derived from different political scales) Sectoral Implications of Varying Policy Perspectives and

Implementation Mechanisms Effect of these Conditions to the Mode of Decentralised Governance

(implementation of green energy initiatives in practice)

ESPON

ReRisk- Final Set of IndicatorsIndicator Weight

Climate Conditions

Mean Maximum Temperature July 1.86

Mean Minimum Temperature January 2.00

Economic Structure

% Employment in Industries with High Energy Purchases

5.00

Transport Dependency

Fuel Costs of Freight Transport 2.43

% Workers Commuting 2.21

Social Dimension

Long-term Unemployment Rate 2.64

Disposable Income in Households 2.36

Production Potential of Renewables

Wind Power Potential 1.86

PV Potential 2.14

Overall Research Approach

InceptionReportInception

Report

InterimReportInterimReport

UpdatedInterim Report

UpdatedInterim Report

Draft FinalReport

Draft FinalReport

FinalReport

FinalReport

DataCollection

DataCollection

TransportDependence

TransportDependence

Additional Data Input:

climate condition, PV and wind

potential, risk of carbon

leakage

Additional Data Input:

climate condition, PV and wind

potential, risk of carbon

leakage

RegionalCase Studies

RegionalCase Studies

PolicyRecommendations

PolicyRecommendations

Economic Vulnerability

Economic Vulnerability

SocialVulnerability

SocialVulnerability

Clustering(by features of

Energy poverty)

Clustering(by features of

Energy poverty)

Scenarios2030

Scenarios2030

Discussion Paper:Climate change impacts

Discussion Paper:Climate change impacts