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Call Identifier : FP6-2004-TREN-3Thematic Priority 1.4 Aeronautics and Space

ERASMUS projectProject overview

September 2006

EEn n RRoute oute AAir Traffic ir Traffic SSoft oft MManagement anagement UUltimate ltimate SSystemystem

This project has been carried out under a contract awarded by the European Commission

No part of this report may be used, reproduced and/or disclosed in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the ERASMUS project partners.

© 2006 – All rights reserved

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ObjectivesObjectives

RationalRational

Potential impactsPotential impacts

Project plan & ResourcesProject plan & Resources

ConsortiumConsortium

ERASMUS

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The ACARE Strategic Research Agenda (SRA II) and its Vision 2020 foresees a doubling, if not a tripling of traffic in the 15 years to come. There is clear need for: more capacity; more efficiency; more safety.

This group stresses that ATM system will not be able to cope with this increase if no radical changes are performed. Several fields of improvement require urgent investigations: more automation for the ATM; shifting responsibilities from ground to the air.

ERASMUSRational I

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Automation for ATM is reaching a strong barrier for many reasons: existing legacy system and difficulties for change; uncertainty and poor accuracy of data; ATCo cognitive process badly known; so far aiming at replacing the human being by the machine; poor common use of proven technologies such as Precision Area

Navigation (P-RNAV), air/ground communication facilities, airborne flight management system (FMS) already widely used by airlines.

We could imagine automation in a way of: improving air ground cooperation; reducing uncertainty (and not removing it); seeking for human being and machine cooperation.

ERASMUSRational II

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ERASMUS project proposes an air-ground cooperative work aiming at defining and validating innovative automation and concepts of operations for the En-route phase. The goal is to propose an advanced automation while maintaining the controllers in the decision loop.

Three majors applications are proposed to be investigated: Enhanced Medium Term Conflict Detection (MTCD); “ATC autopilot”; subliminal control;

ERASMUSObjectives

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Foundations of the three proposed applications: Slight variation in aircraft speed or rate of climb can be sufficient to

prevent a latent conflict (15’ in advance a difference of some 2%, less than 10 knots, in speeds could change a “conflict” into a “non conflict”).

Such accuracies are far out of reach of the controller (perception) sensorial picking and mental computing.

Derived current cockpit autopilot enabling aircraft attitude, trajectory and level control to be delegated to the FMS (minor automatic trajectory adjustment not always perceivable by the pilot), in the ATC domain.

Derived from ERATO, in addition with the integration of more accurate data (FMS based), ATCo cognitive processes to be considered for providing better and more accurate aircraft conflict/problem information.

ERASMUSConcept foundations

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!!!??

Ask to the machine

I fix it

I fix it

I inform

ERASMUSThe 3 applications

Enhanced MTCD

ATC Auto-pilot control

Subliminal control

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The innovation is: to enrich MTCD information with ATCo cognitive logic and more accurate

trajectory prediction; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities.

To provide aircraft conflicts/problems information taking into account the most accurate data, and the controller cognitive processes.

ERASMUSEnhanced MTCD

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The innovation is: to use the machine to solve conflict; to be able to overwrite any subliminal changes at any time: keep ultimate control; not to conflict with ATCo and pilot own actions and responsibilities; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities and to transform the

current “open loop” into a “closed loop” ATC - computer-to-computer clearances delivery.

To delegate “subliminal” problem resolution actions to the machine on case by case basis (under the control of the human being)

ERASMUSATC Autopilot

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The innovation is: to use the machine not to solve conflict but to de-conflict the air situation (advanced

MSP function with automatic and minor adjustments); to apply changes not directly perceivable by the human being; to be able to overwrite any subliminal changes at any time: keep ultimate control; not to conflict with ATCo and pilot own actions and responsibilities; to use existing and proven air/ground data-link facilities and to transform the

current “open loop” into a “closed loop” ATC - computer-to-computer clearances delivery.

The subliminal control could automatically “remove” conflict by minor alterations of the speeds or rate of climb with no human being intervention

ERASMUSSubliminal control

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Human decision(ultimate control in any cases)(ultimate control in any cases)

Machine

decision

HighLow

Low

High

FullFull automation pathautomation path LowLow

Auto ATC

ERASMUSAutomation path

Enhanced

MTCD

Subliminal

control

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Project objectives will be materialised by: Definition of concepts of operations for the air and ground sides; Definition of the operational scenarios (advanced tools, working

methods); Detailed specification and design of the prototype (advanced tools,

working methods); Definition of the validation plan and experimental plan (E-OCVM

applied); Assessment and refinement of the hypothesis and proof of concept in

term of safety, efficiency, capacity, security and economy; Clearly identified quantified benefits in safety, efficiency, capacity,

security, economy; Identification of the transition issues and implementation plan.

ERASMUSDeliverables

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A better knowledge of the air and ground trajectory prediction: assessing if the spectacular accuracy of GPS and CNS capabilities would increase the accuracy of the knowledge of the past/present positions and speeds of an aircraft; knowing the statistical distribution of the position forecasts and defining the required accuracy and integrity of the positions prediction.

An ATC Modelling assessment: using the air and ground data accuracy results, an ATC mathematical model should evaluate the ability to a priori estimate for each case the probability of success of the trajectory prediction and the proportion of successful subliminal action.

Safety: assessing the “safety” of the automated processes themselves and of any subset, since it would be impossible to rely on any real time return back to the controller of any such transferred responsibility.

Working methods and modus operandi (for subliminal control, ATC autopilot, and enhanced MTCD): considering cognitive needs and data accuracy capabilities, defining working methods and tools specifications.

ERASMUSPotential Impacts I

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What are the meteorological prediction capabilities? What are the aircraft speed margins of manoeuvre and constraints? What are the trajectory performance between the air and the ground? How to use a better FMS trajectory prediction capabilities in order to

decrease the number of real conflicts and at which time horizon? How to use the controller cognitive model and technology capabilities to

support different applications? How to present the relevant traffic situation information (conflict detection) in

accordance with the controller cognitive model? How these new capabilities will allow to increase the ATC sector capacity? What is the safety impact of such applications in order to define nominal and

degraded mode ? Which mode are acceptable to a controller and a pilot ? What are the other impacts (efficiency, cost-benefits)?

ERASMUSPotential Impacts II

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1 EUROCONTROL - Paris1 EUROCONTROL - Paris- Consortium leader -- Consortium leader -

2 DSNA - Toulouse2 DSNA - Toulouse(former DNA)(former DNA)

3 HONEYWELL - Brno3 HONEYWELL - Brno

4 University of Linköping4 University of Linköping

5 Swiss Federal Institute 5 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - Zurichof Technology - Zurich

6 SICTA - Napoli6 SICTA - Napoli

3 HONEYWELL - US3 HONEYWELL - US

ERASMUSThe consortium

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425.5 man.month allocated to the project

EUREUR DSNADSNA HONHON LIULIU ETHETH SICSIC TotalTotal totaltotal

WP0WP0 1515 22 77 0.50.5 0.50.5 11 2626 6%6%

WP1WP1 33 2424 2626 00 2424 22 7979 19%19%

WP2WP2 2121 2626 2626 2020 22 66 101101 24%24%

WP3WP3 00 5454 55 22 00 22 6363 14%14%

WP4WP4 3131 2222 6161 1616 3.53.5 2323 156.5156.5 37%37%

ERASMUSResources

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ERASMUSKey expertises

EUR DSNA HON LIU ETH SIC

FMS

Human Factors

Human cognition

Math modeling

FT simulation

RT-HIL simulation

ATM operational

Safety

Security

Validation

ATM automation

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WP1

Air & Ground

Trajectory Prediction

WP2

Definition of Concept

of Operation

WP0

Project Management & Dissemination

WP4

Validation

WP3

Prototype

Development

Subliminal control application

AC auto-pilot application

Enhanced MTCD application

ERASMUSWBS

Air and Ground Trajectory Prediction (WP1): better knowing the aircraft position forecast in order to assess the feasibility and efficiency of any future automation project; and evaluating the ability to estimate “a piori” the probability of success of the trajectory prediction and the proportion of successful subliminal action as well as minor adjustments

Prototype developments (WP3): producing detailed specifications of the selected operational scenarios and developing the prototype (both controller and the pilot sides).

Project management & dissemination (WP0): managing the consortium, reporting to the Commission, technical coordination with the partners. and also ensuring dissemination

Validation & Conclusion (WP4) conducting validation processes in term of “proof of concept” assessment aiming at providing quantifiable benefit statements for the safety, efficiency, capacity, security and economy (validation process based on E-OCVM, ESARR4 as reference for safety requirement).

Concept of Operation (WP2): elaborating the concept of operations (with the objective of meeting capacity, safety and efficiency in the time frame 2011 – 2020).

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ERASMUSProject Gantt

Started on the 11th of May 2006

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ERASMUSMilestones

Deliverable No Deliverable title Delivery date DeliveredD0.1.1 Project Management Plan T0 + 3D0.1.6 Final Report T0 + 30D0.2 List of external projects T0 to T0 + 30D0.3.1 Exploitation plan T0 + 6D0.3.2 ERASMUS web site T0 + 4D0.3.3 Dissemination plan T0 + 6D1.1 Air Trajectory Prediction T0 + 10D1.2.1 Ground Trajectory Prediction T0 + 18D1.2.2 Mathematical Modelling T0 + 26D1.3.1 Air & Ground based trajectory and manoeuvres mathematical modelling T0 + 16D1.3.2 Simulation results T0 + 26D2.1 State-of-the-art T0 + 3D2.2.1 Definition of the Concept of Operations – Version 1 T0 + 7D2.2.2 Definition of the Concept of Operations – Version 2 T0 + 19D2.3.1 Anticipated Benefits – Version 1 T0 + 9D2.3.2 Anticipated Benefits – Version 2 T0 + 22D2.4 Transition Schemes T0 + 22D3.1.1 Prototype Specification – Version 1 T0 + 10D3.1.2 Prototype Specification – Version 2 T0 + 24D4.1 Validation Plan T0 + 10D4.2.1 Definition of the operational scenarios – Version 1 T0 + 13D4.2.2 Definition of the operational scenarios – Version 2 T0 + 27D4.4.1 Security, Safety, Efficiency and Cost-benefit Assessment – Version 1 T0 + 15D4.4.2 Security, Safety, Efficiency and Cost-benefit Assessment – Version 2 T0 + 29D4.5.1 Result Analysis – Version 1 T0 + 16D4.5.2 Result Analysis – Version 2 T0 + 30D4.6 Elaboration of conclusions T0 + 30

September 2007September 2007

November 2008November 2008

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... Thank you... Thank you

Any question?Any question?

ERASMUSERASMUS

… … a new path towards automation …a new path towards automation …

This project has been carried out under a contract awarded by the European Commission

No part of this report may be used, reproduced and/or disclosed in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the ERASMUS project partners.

© 2006 – All rights reserved