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Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
FROM EQUITY RESEARCH
This time… Retail and Consumer: How the small are slowly eating the big players’ cake
Our recent survey on the modern trade channel suggests that: 1)
tight competition in the modern retail trade channel remains the key challenge with minimarkets better able to record faster growth than
hypermarkets, and 2) the minimal price adjustments ytd on both HPC and F&B products at retailers signal that demand remained soft
in 3Q17. Going forward, however, we expect consumption to gradually improve in 4Q17 since consumption should receive a boost
in 2018 as the pre-elections year.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
Bukit Asam: Boosted by higher coal prices Bukit Asam (PTBA) reported net profits of IDR902bn in 3Q17
(+5.7% qoq and +165.3% yoy). Cumulatively, the net profits in 9M17 increased by 149.7% yoy to IDR2,626bn. The solid growth
reflects: a) higher coal prices which lifted coal ASP and b) higher coal production. While revenues were within our expectations, the
net profits were above our forecast owing to better-than-expected
gross and operating margins. Net profits were within consensus estimates. Maintain BUY.
To see the full version of this report, please click here
MARKET NEWS
Sector Property: developers have not developed realization plan for the
reclamation project
Corporate PP Property to increase land bank
Stock split and directors reshuffle of BRI approved
KEY INDEX
Close
Chg Ytd Vol
(%) (%) (US$ m)
Asean - 5
Indonesia 5,929 (0.3) 11.9 538
Thailand 1,708 (1.0) 10.7 1,780
Philippines 8,432 (0.8) 23.3 160
Malaysia 1,749 (0.3) 6.5 538
Singapore 3,329 0.2 15.6 759
Regional
China 3,382 0.3 9.0 34,340
Hong Kong 28,712 0.0 30.5 11,341
Japan 21,363 0.1 11.8 11,933
Korea 2,483 (0.1) 22.5 4,710
Taiwan 10,720 (0.0) 15.9 4,531
India 32,584 (0.1) 22.4 593
NASDAQ 6,624 0.0 23.1 76,649
Dow Jones 23,158 0.7 17.2 6,990
CURRENCY AND INTEREST RATE
Rate
w-w m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Rupiah Rp/1US$ 97 1.0 (1.2) 9.8
SBI rate % 1,281 (0.0) (2.3) 11.1
10y Gov Indo bond 11,586 (1.0) 3.8 16.3
HARD COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Coal US$/ton 96 0.4 (3.1) 8.8
Gold US$/toz 1,295 - (1.9) 12.4
Nickel US$/mt.ton 11,806 1.7 7.2 18.5
Tin US$/mt.ton 20,675 (0.3) 0.0 (2.5)
SOFT COMMODITY
Unit Price
d-d m-m ytd
(%) (%) (%)
Cocoa US$/mt.ton 2,083 0.6 2.6 (3.0)
Corn US$/mt.ton 120 - - (6.7)
Oil (WTI) US$/barrel 52 0.2 5.3 (3.0)
Oil (Brent) US$/barrel 58 0.5 4.8 2.3
Palm oil MYR/mt.ton 2,745 0.5 (4.2) (14.2)
Rubber USd/kg 143 (1.0) (7.7) (26.1)
Pulp US$/tonne 920 N/A 1.8 13.8
Coffee US$/60kgbag 117 0.7 (6.7) (22.5)
Sugar US$/MT 370 0.5 (1.8) (29.4)
Wheat US$/ton 117 (1.1) (3.0) (7.5)
Soy Bean US$/lb 33 (0.5) (2.3) (2.9)
Soy Oil US$/by 984 (0.1) 1.7 (1.2)
Source: Bloomberg
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report
1
Equity Research
Target Price
Market Cap.
P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rec (Rp) (RpBn) 2017F 2018F 2017F 2018F 2017F
Consumer HM Sampoerna HMSP IJ BUY 4,100 440,800 34.6 32.4 12.8 12.4 38.9 Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ HOLD 52,000 373,900 51.0 44.9 66.3 56.3 135.6 Gudang Garam GGRM IJ HOLD 75,100 126,200 18.0 16.3 3.0 2.7 17.5 Indofood CBP ICBP IJ BUY 9,700 101,500 26.3 23.3 5.2 4.6 20.9 Kalbe Farma Indofood Sukses Mayora Indah Kino Indonesia Retail Matahari Putra Prima
KLBF IJ INDF IJ MYOR IJ KINO IJ MPPA IJ
HOLD HOLD HOLD BUY SELL
1,750 8,650 1,960 2,300 450
79,700 73,800 48,500 2,800 3,441
32.1 16.1 25.2 14.1 n/m
28.8 14.1 31.2 13.0 82.2
6.0 2.3 6.8 1.3 1.5
5.3 2.1 5.9 1.2 1.4
19.4 15.9 20.3 9.9 (1.7)
This time...retail and consumer How the small slowly eat up the big players’ cake
Recent survey on modern trade channel has provided evidence that: 1) tight competition in the modern retail trade channel remain the key challenge with minimarkets poise faster growth ability compared to hypermarkets, and 2) minimum price adjustment ytd on both HPC and F&B products in retailers signaled remains soft demand in 3Q17. However, we view that consumption will gradually improve in 4Q17 toward 2018 due to pre-election year. Minimarkets are eating hypermarkets’ lunch. Major consumers in Southeast Asia’s largest economy are choosing the convenience of minimarkets for grocery shopping over their larger rivals, hypermarkets. Recent collaborated survey with Danareksa Research Institute in August 2017 has revealed that 1) rising urban population and tighter competition in modern retail trade channel, 2) rapid growth in local communities and higher number of store, and 3) higher shopping frequency are the factors that cause rising in the minimarkets. Several Indonesian regulations can play an important role in modern trade channel expansion ahead, yet in our view competition will be tightening in the future. Minimum FMCG’ price adjustment signaling continued soft 3Q17 demand. Recent survey on home/personal care (HPC) and F&B pricing in modern trade channel has signaled a minimum price adjustment throughout the year affirming our perception that demand remains soft until 3Q17. Based on our survey on the HPC products, we found sizeable discount implemented to UNVR’ toothpaste products. Meanwhile, on the F&B products, we found that only liquid milk and mineral water booked significant prices increase ytd. This is also in line with the Bank Indonesia’ retail sales survey that estimates soft recovery in 3Q17. Tight competition among retailers, despite possible uptick 4Q17 consumption. On the retailer side, traditional markets will continue to account majority of retail food sales in Indonesia and competition remains the key challenge for the modern trade to grow, especially for hypermarkets players, such as MPPA. Recent pricing strategy that has been effective since early this year will possibly continue to drag down the company’s profitability until end of year. On the overall consumption outlook, we see a potential of an uptick in consumption toward 4Q17 following continued easing cost pressure. Meanwhile, entering 2018, the pre-election and regional election year with grass-root friendly policies to sustain purchasing power will bolster growth for consumer companies. Reiterate our BUY recommendation on HMSP and ICBP and SELL on MPPA.
Thursday, 19 October 2017
Modern Trade Channel
Traditional Markets
Natalia Sutanto (62-21) 2955 5777 ext 3508 [email protected]
Adeline Solaiman (62-21) 2955 5777 ext 3503 [email protected] Ignatius Teguh Prayoga (62-21) 2955 5777 ext 3511 [email protected]
www.danareksa.com See important disclosure at the back of this report 1
Equity Research Results Note
Thursday,19 October 2017
Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) BUY
Maintain Boosted by higher coal prices
Bukit Asam (PTBA) reported net profit of IDR902bn in 3Q17 (+5.7% qoq and +165.3% yoy). The net profit in 9M17 increased by 149.7% yoy to IDR2,626bn. This was due to a) higher coal prices to increase coal ASP and b) higher coal production. While revenue was within our expectation, the net profit was above our forecast owing to better-than-expected on the gross and operating margin. Net profit was within consensus estimates. Maintain BUY recommendation.
3Q17: Higher margin to sustain quarterly net profit. The company reported better earning by 5.7% qoq to Rp902bn in 3Q17. This was mainly attributable to a) gross margin improvement which we believe attributable to lower stripping ratio, and b) normalization on corporate tax rate to 26.7% in 3Q17 (2Q17: 31.3%). Nonetheless, with the average Newcastle coal price declined slightly by 2.6% qoq in 2Q17, we believe that the company to book lower coal ASP since the company has adjusted its domestic price based on quarterly basis. Thus, revenue went down by 3.7% qoq.
Rising net profit on strong coal prices and production. The impact on the rising coal prices and impact on higher coal production, which reflected on strong revenue growth by 31.7% yoy, PTBA reported higher net profit by 149.7% yoy to Rp2,626bn in 9M17. As such, gross margin improved to 38.2% in 9M17 from 24.3% in 9M16.
Continuation on strong net profit for 2017. With improvement in the coal prices in the beginning of 3Q17, this will translate into strong domestic coal prices for PTBA in 4Q17, which is currently linked from the previous quarter. The average quarterly coal prices increased by 16.7% qoq in 3Q17. Hence, we expect continuation on strong net profit for 2017. We expect coal production growth by 9.7% yoy in 2017 which will be supported by greater railway capacity.
Maintain BUY recommendation. With better-than-expected results in 9M17, we maintain BUY recommendation but reviewing our previous target price of Rp14,500 (based on DCF valuation with WACC of 11.4% and long-term growth of 3%).
Last price (IDR) 10,925
Target Price (IDR) 14,500
Upside/Downside +32.7%
Previous Target Price (IDR) 14,500
Stock Statistics
Sector Coal Mining
Bloomberg Ticker PTBA IJ
No of Shrs (mn) 2,174
Mkt. Cap (IDR bn/USDmn) 23,155/1,718
Avg. daily T/O (IDR bn/USDmn) 42.9/3.2
Major shareholders
Government of Indonesia 65.0%
Estimated free float (%) 29.3
EPS Consensus(IDR)
2017F 2018F 2019F
Danareksa 1,391.7 1,523.8 1,659.2
Consensus 1,463.1 1,433.1 1,434.1
Danareksa/Cons (4.9) 6.3 15.7
PTBA relative to JCI Index
Source : Bloomberg
Stefanus Darmagiri
(62-21) 29 555 831
Key Financials Year to 31 Dec 2015A 2016A 2017F 2018F 2019F
Revenue, (IDRbn) 13,734 14,059 17,285 18,840 21,039 EBITDA, (IDRbn) 2,826 2,876 4,253 4,778 5,325 EBITDA Growth, (%) 21.0 1.8 47.9 12.3 11.4 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,036 2,006 3,026 3,313 3,607 EPS (IDR) 936.4 922.8 1,391.7 1,523.8 1,659.2 EPS growth (%) 9.4 (1.5) 50.8 9.5 8.9 BVPS, (IDR) 4,219.9 4,793.3 5,862.0 6,898.8 8,024.7 DPS, (IDR) 324.6 280.9 323.0 487.1 533.3 PER (x) 12.6 12.8 8.5 7.7 7.1 PBV (x) 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.7 1.5 Dividend yield (%) 2.8 2.4 2.7 4.1 4.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.7 8.4 5.6 5.3 5.0
Source : PTBA, Danareksa Estimates
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
SECTOR Property: developers have not yet developed realization plans for the Jakarta reclamation project
Although the Ministry of Environment has revoked the moratorium on the reclamation, several developers are unable
to continue the reclamation project. Agung Sedayu and Agung Podomoro Land prefer to wait for guidance from the government. Meanwhile, Intiland Development (DILD) will continue to apply for reclamation licenses. (Bisnis
Indonesia)
Island Developer Area (ha) Status
A Kapuk Naga Indah (Agung Sedayu) 79 Principal licenses
B Kapuk Naga Indah (Agung Sedayu) 380 Principal licenses
C Kapuk Naga Indah (Agung Sedayu) 276 Reclamation on progress
D Kapuk Naga Indah (Agung Sedayu) 312 Reclamation on progress
E Kapuk Naga Indah (Agung Sedayu) 284 Principal licenses
F Jakarta Propertindo 190 Implementation licenses
G Muara Wisesa Samudra (APLN) 161 Reclamation on progress
H Taman Harapan Indah (DILD) 63 Implementation licenses
I Jaladri Kartika Era Paksi 405 Implementation licenses
J Pembangunan Jaya Ancol 316 Principal licenses
K Pembangunan Jaya Ancol 32 Implementation licenses
L Manggala Krida Yudha 481 Principal licenses
M Manggala Krida Yudha 587 Principal licenses
N Pelindo II 411 Reclamation on progress
O Jakarta Regional Government 344 Principal licenses
P Jakarta Regional Government 483 Principal licenses
Q Jakarta Regional Government 369 Principal licenses
CORPORATE
PP Property to increase its land bank PP Property (PPRO) seeks to increase its land bank this year and focus on developing its existing land bank in 2018.
PPRO currently owns 110ha of land bank and aims to increase its land bank to 200ha by the end of this year. Upon the completion of the land bank acquisition, PPRO will have 26 land bank sites. Project wise, PPRO recorded an
86% take-up rate for the Alton. Alton consists of 3 apartment towers, with the first and second towers fully sold
out. The third tower already has a 60% take-up rate, supported by bulk sales to the Alumni Association of University Diponogoro which comprises 678 units worth IDR216bn. The total number of units available for sale is 1,982 units.
(Investor Daily)
BRI stock split and directors reshuffle approved The shareholders of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) have approved the planned 1:5 stock split and reshuffle of the
board of directors. Through the stock split the Chief Director of BRI expects the stock to be more affordable for
domestic retail investors. Previously, BRI undertook a 1:5 stock split in 2011 due to a decline in trading volume. At the shareholders’ meeting, BRI also discussed the planned acquisition of PT Bahana Artha Ventura that will be
initiated in November 2017 with another entity to be acquired in 2018. BRI plans to acquire a 35% stake in PT Bahana Artha Ventura. (Investor Daily)
MARKET NEWS
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Rating Price (Rp) Price Mkt Cap
Target Rp Bn 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Danareksa Universe 3,786,508 198,392 224,538 220.4 249.5 17.6% 13.2% 19.1 16.9 20.5 18.4 2.9 2.6 15.8 16.1
Auto 325,893 18,975 22,003 381.6 442.5 25.2% 16.0% 17.2 14.8 12.5 10.5 2.1 1.9 12.8 13.4
Astra International HOLD 8,050 9,000 325,893 18,975 22,003 469 544 449 531 25.2% 16.0% 17.2 14.8 12.5 10.5 2.1 1.9 12.8 13.4
Banks 1,383,171 89,107 104,234 711.5 832.3 19.5% 17.0% 15.5 13.3 2.4 2.1 16.2 16.8
BCA BUY 20,200 19,450 498,031 22,682 25,017 920 1,015 920 1,015 10.1% 10.3% 22.0 19.9 N/A N/A 3.8 3.4 18.8 18.0
BNI BUY 7,650 8,500 142,662 14,049 16,825 753 902 753 902 23.9% 19.8% 10.2 8.5 N/A N/A 1.4 1.2 15.0 15.6
BRI BUY 15,400 15,000 379,905 30,046 33,756 1,218 1,368 1,218 1,368 14.7% 12.3% 12.6 11.3 N/A N/A 2.3 2.0 19.1 18.8
Bank Tabungan Negara BUY 3,060 2,400 32,405 2,941 3,120 278 295 278 295 12.3% 6.1% 11.0 10.4 N/A N/A 1.5 1.4 14.6 14.0
Bank Mandiri HOLD 7,075 11,800 330,167 19,390 25,515 831 1,094 831 1,094 40.4% 31.6% 8.5 6.5 N/A N/A 2.0 1.8 12.4 14.9
Cement 163,115 5,911 6,125 303 314 -18.6% 3.6% 27.6 26.6 14.7 13.8 2.6 2.5 9.7 9.6
Indocement SELL 19,300 13,000 71,048 2,514 2,484 683 675 677 669 -35.1% -1.2% 28.3 28.6 15.5 15.6 2.6 2.6 9.5 9.1
Semen Indonesia HOLD 10,825 8,600 64,209 3,209 3,458 541 583 513 554 2.3% 7.8% 20.0 18.6 10.9 10.0 2.0 1.9 10.2 10.4
Semen Baturaja SELL 2,810 390 27,859 188 182 19 19 19 18 -27.3% -3.3% 146.7 151.8 60.0 57.1 8.5 8.2 5.9 5.5
Cigarettes 580,657 19,836 21,451 168 181 2.0% 8.1% 29.3 27.1 20.2 18.6 7.6 7.0 26.5 27.0
Gudang Garam HOLD 64,200 75,100 123,526 7,159 7,871 3,721 4,091 3,721 4,091 7.2% 9.9% 17.3 15.7 11.1 10.2 3.0 2.6 17.6 17.7
HM Sampoerna BUY 3,930 4,100 457,130 12,677 13,581 109 117 109 117 -0.7% 7.1% 36.1 33.7 27.0 24.7 13.3 12.9 37.0 38.9
Construction 126,070 8,554 10,351 115 139 29.9% 21.0% 14.7 12.2 9.7 8.0 2.0 1.8 14.7 15.6
Wijaya Karya BUY 1,775 2,800 15,922 1,225 1,783 137 199 137 199 21.0% 45.5% 13.0 8.9 4.4 3.1 1.3 1.2 10.4 13.7
Pembangunan Perumahan BUY 2,730 5,700 16,926 1,295 1,570 209 253 233 283 33.9% 21.2% 13.1 10.8 6.4 5.3 2.7 2.2 22.5 22.6
Adhi Karya BUY 2,030 2,700 7,229 451 619 127 174 149 187 43.9% 37.3% 16.0 11.7 8.7 7.2 1.2 1.0 7.8 9.2
Waskita Karya BUY 1,980 2,800 26,876 2,383 3,034 176 224 176 224 39.1% 27.4% 11.3 8.9 11.0 9.1 2.1 1.8 19.8 21.5
Waskita Beton BUY 378 630 9,965 1,104 1,319 42 50 42 50 73.9% 19.5% 9.0 7.6 8.8 4.5 1.2 1.1 14.2 15.2
Wika Beton BUY 560 1,100 4,881 349 420 42 50 42 50 28.3% 20.2% 13.4 11.1 8.7 7.3 1.8 1.6 13.7 14.8
Jasa Marga BUY 6,100 6,300 44,273 1,747 1,606 257 236 261 240 4.4% -8.1% 23.7 25.8 13.6 12.3 3.4 3.1 14.0 11.6
Consumer 606,282 17,265 19,547 333 377 10.2% 13.2% 35.1 31.0 23.7 21.0 9.2 8.2 27.6 28.0
Indofood CBP BUY 8,875 9,700 103,499 3,857 4,351 331 373 331 373 7.1% 12.8% 26.8 23.8 16.7 15.0 5.3 4.7 20.7 20.9
Indofood HOLD 8,325 8,650 73,097 4,506 5,098 517 580 512 569 9.2% 12.2% 16.1 14.3 13.1 11.6 2.3 2.1 14.9 15.5
Unilever HOLD 49,975 52,000 381,309 7,324 8,326 960 1,091 960 1,091 14.6% 13.7% 52.1 45.8 36.5 32.2 67.6 57.4 141.6 135.6
Kino Indonesia BUY 1,935 2,300 2,764 199 215 140 151 140 151 10.1% 8.0% 13.9 12.8 8.2 7.4 1.3 1.2 9.9 9.9
Mayora Indah HOLD 2,040 1,960 45,612 1,378 1,556 62 70 62 72 1.7% 12.9% 33.1 29.3 17.0 15.2 6.4 5.5 20.9 20.3
Healthcare 94,684 2,773 3,089 105 118 8.1% 11.9% 34.1 30.7 27.4 24.3 6.0 5.3 18.5 18.3
Kalbe Farma HOLD 1,700 1,750 79,688 2,484 2,763 53 59 53 59 8.0% 11.2% 32.1 28.8 26.7 23.9 6.0 5.3 19.7 19.4
Kimia Farma SELL 2,700 1,940 14,996 289 326 52 59 52 59 8.1% 12.7% 51.9 46.0 31.2 26.9 6.1 5.5 12.4 12.6
Heavy Equipment 130,182 6,873 7,645 1,843 2,049 37.4% 11.2% 18.9 17.0 8.4 7.2 3.0 2.7 16.7 16.7
United Tractors BUY 34,900 35,300 130,182 6,873 7,645 1,843 2,049 1,843 2,049 37.4% 11.2% 18.9 17.0 8.4 7.2 3.0 2.7 16.7 16.7
Industrial Estate #N/A 14,472 2,318 1,192 37 19 100.6% -48.6% 6.2 12.1 9.5 8.7 1.0 0.9 16.0 7.7
Puradelta Lestari BUY 188 240 9,061 771 779 16 16 15 15 1.8% 1.0% 11.8 11.6 10.9 10.8 1.2 1.1 10.4 10.2
Bekasi Fajar BUY 278 340 2,682 413 463 43 48 42 48 22.8% 12.3% 6.5 5.8 7.1 6.5 0.7 0.6 11.5 11.6
Surya Semesta HOLD 580 640 2,729 1,134 (50) 241 (11) (113) (19) 1716.1% -104.5% 2.4 (54.0) 10.5 8.3 0.7 0.7 32.8 (1.3)
Mining 165,948 11,073 12,401 139 156 41.4% 12.0% 15.0 13.4 5.5 5.1 1.4 1.3 9.4 10.2
Adaro Energy BUY 1,880 2,000 60,134 4,963 5,165 155 161 155 161 10.7% 4.1% 12.1 11.6 4.0 3.7 1.4 1.4 11.6 11.8
Timah BUY 815 1,100 6,070 313 334 42 45 42 45 24.3% 6.7% 19.4 18.2 7.0 6.8 1.0 1.0 5.4 5.5
Vale Indonesia HOLD 2,820 2,600 28,020 380 540 38 54 38 54 1412.0% 42.0% 73.7 51.9 10.2 9.6 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.3
Aneka Tambang HOLD 655 900 15,740 (147) 207 (6) 9 (6) 9 -52.0% -240.6% (106.9) 76.0 19.2 17.1 0.9 0.9 (0.8) 1.2
Bukit Asam BUY 10,925 14,500 25,173 2,498 3,004 1,149 1,382 1,149 1,382 72.7% 20.3% 9.5 7.9 6.4 5.4 2.1 1.8 22.9 23.2
Indo Tambangraya Megah HOLD 21,550 17,000 24,350 2,536 2,534 2,244 2,243 2,323 2,321 44.8% -0.1% 9.6 9.6 4.0 4.1 1.9 1.8 20.2 19.2
Harum Energy HOLD 2,390 2,200 6,462 530 617 196 228 196 228 196.4% 16.3% 12.2 10.5 3.7 3.0 1.6 1.5 13.4 14.7
Plantation #N/A 42,365 3,115 3,178 293 299 2.4% 2.0% 13.6 13.3 7.4 6.9 1.4 1.3 10.6 10.1
Astra Agro Lestari HOLD 14,550 16,300 28,004 2,013 2,043 1,046 1,062 1,038 1,058 0.3% 1.5% 13.9 13.7 7.7 7.1 1.5 1.4 11.3 10.6
Sampoerna Agro HOLD 2,400 2,320 4,536 283 301 156 166 156 166 -35.8% 6.4% 15.4 14.5 8.7 8.4 1.2 1.2 8.0 8.0
PP London Sumatra BUY 1,440 1,830 9,825 819 833 120 122 823 833 37.9% 1.7% 12.0 11.8 5.8 5.5 1.2 1.1 10.3 9.8
Poultry 68,266 4,623 5,608 31 37 1.1% 21.3% 14.8 12.2 9.0 7.7 2.4 2.0 17.2 17.8
Charoen Pokphand BUY 3,130 3,100 51,326 2,982 3,550 182 216 182 216 34.3% 19.0% 17.2 14.5 10.6 9.0 3.1 2.6 19.3 19.4
Japfa Comfeed BUY 1,310 1,650 14,948 1,463 1,811 128 159 128 159 -29.2% 23.8% 10.2 8.3 6.5 5.6 1.5 1.3 15.4 16.4
Malindo Feedmill BUY 890 1,050 1,992 178 247 80 110 80 110 -38.5% 38.4% 11.2 8.1 6.6 6.0 1.0 0.9 9.3 11.5
Property 108,407 7,171 6,745 60 56 39.3% -5.9% 15.1 16.1 10.7 11.3 1.8 1.6 12.2 10.4
Alam Sutera HOLD 378 380 7,427 1,129 1,026 57 52 56 59 121.9% -9.2% 6.6 7.2 8.7 9.6 0.9 0.8 14.9 12.1
Bumi Serpong Damai BUY 1,780 2,200 34,259 3,115 1,947 162 101 203 137 73.4% -37.5% 11.0 17.6 8.7 12.2 1.5 1.4 14.1 8.0
Ciputra Development HOLD 1,175 1,070 21,808 947 1,302 51 70 38 58 -8.6% 37.4% 23.0 16.8 12.6 10.9 1.6 1.5 7.1 9.1
Pakuw on Jati BUY 630 700 30,341 1,707 2,146 35 45 37 44 2.2% 25.7% 17.8 14.1 12.4 10.6 3.0 2.5 18.2 19.5
Summarecon SELL 1,010 900 14,571 272 325 19 23 28 27 -12.8% 19.7% 53.6 44.8 13.1 13.2 2.2 2.1 4.3 4.9
Retail 71,681 3,573 4,059 104 119 10.4% 13.6% 20.1 17.7 10.7 9.7 4.7 4.3 24.5 25.3
Mitra Adi Perkasa BUY 6,550 8,100 10,873 347 509 210 308 210 308 66.5% 46.8% 31.2 21.3 7.8 6.7 3.3 3.3 10.7 15.6
Ramayana BUY 925 1,130 6,564 431 462 67 70 67 70 10.9% 4.9% 13.9 13.2 9.9 8.9 1.8 1.7 12.5 12.4
Matahari Department Store BUY 9,700 12,000 28,304 2,098 2,265 719 777 719 777 4.0% 7.9% 13.5 12.5 9.0 8.1 11.2 8.5 95.6 77.1
Matahari Putra Prima SELL 630 450 3,388 109 112 17 17 17 17 183.4% 2.7% 37.7 36.7 5.2 5.2 1.4 1.3 4.4 4.5
Ace Hardw are HOLD 1,315 1,300 22,552 588 711 43 47 43 47 3.2% 9.3% 30.6 28.0 28.6 27.3 6.6 5.9 18.2 19.7
Erajaya Sw asembada BUY 860 1,100 2,494 303 339 105 117 105 117 14.9% 11.8% 8.2 7.4 4.2 3.4 0.7 0.6 8.6 9.0
PER (x)
Equity
Valuation Net profit, Rp bn EPS (Rp) Core EPS (Rp) EPS Growth ROE EV / EBITDA (x) PBV (x)
DANAREKSA VALUATION GUIDE
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
LEADERS Price as on Code 18-Oct-17 17-Oct-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Ace Hardware ACES 1,315 1,260 4.4 1.2 18.5 57.5 HOLD
Malindo Feedmill MAIN 890 865 2.9 1.1 (2.7) (31.5) BUY
United Tractors UNTR 34,900 34,025 2.6 1.9 12.2 64.2 BUY
Bukit Asam PTBA 10,925 10,750 1.6 (3.1) 4.5 (12.6) BUY
PP London Sumatra LSIP 1,440 1,420 1.4 (1.7) 1.1 (17.2) BUY
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 7,650 7,550 1.3 4.8 4.1 38.5 BUY
Indofood INDF 8,325 8,250 0.9 (0.6) (2.9) 5.0 HOLD
Pakuwon Jati PWON 630 625 0.8 3.3 (3.1) 11.5 BUY
Aneka Tambang ANTM 655 650 0.8 2.3 (3.0) (26.8) HOLD
Bank Mandiri BMRI 7,075 7,025 0.7 5.2 7.2 22.2 HOLD
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS Price as on Code 18-Oct-17 17-Oct-17 Chg, % w-w, % m-m, % YTD, % Rating
Wika Beton WTON 560 585 (4.3) 0.9 (0.9) (32.1) BUY
Mitra Adi Perkasa MAPI 6,550 6,775 (3.3) (4.7) (4.0) 21.3 BUY
Jasa Marga JSMR 6,100 6,300 (3.2) 0.4 3.0 41.2 BUY
Kimia Farma KAEF 2,700 2,780 (2.9) (3.2) (9.1) (1.8) SELL
Astra International ASII 8,050 8,250 (2.4) 0.3 1.6 (2.7) HOLD
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,820 2,880 (2.1) (5.1) 5.2 - HOLD
Waskita Beton WSBP 378 386 (2.1) 11.2 (1.6) (31.9) BUY
Charoen Pokphand CPIN 3,130 3,190 (1.9) 5.0 16.8 1.3 BUY
Harum Energy HRUM 2,390 2,430 (1.6) 4.4 9.1 11.7 HOLD
Ramayana RALS 925 940 (1.6) (3.1) (5.6) (22.6) BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
PREVIOUS REPORTS
Automotive: Expect strong car sales in the upcoming months, Waskita Beton Precast: Solid results, Waskita Karya:
On the high note SnapShot20171017 Bumi Serpong Damai: Commercial land plot sales boost marketing sales, Ciputra Development: Falling short of the
target SnapShot20171016 Bank Negara Indonesia: Still Growing, Ace Hardware Indonesia: Solid 9M17 SSSG expected, Ramayana Lestari
Sentosa: Flattish 9M17 performance, Adhi Karya: KAI will bring seasonal cheer, Waskita Beton Precast: Attractive
Valuation SnapShot20171013 Cement: Signs of weakening demand SnapShot20171012
Plantation: Sep’17 Stockpile Breaches 2mn tons, Property: Same old story, Automotive: Weak Motorcycle sales volume in September 2017 SnapShot20171011
Bumi Serpong Damai: On Track, Kimia Farma: Overvalued SnapShot20171009
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
Adeline Solaiman
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3503 Retail, Poultry
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14 Jakarta 10110 Indonesia Tel (62 21) 29 555 888 Fax (62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team S
Sales team
Novrita E. Putrianti
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
Ehrliech Suhartono
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
Maria Renata
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3513 Construction
Lucky Bayu Purnomo
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512 Technical Analyst
Laksmita Armandani
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
Antonia Febe Hartono, CFA
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3504 Cement, Property, Industrial Estate
Tuty Sutopo
(62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
Kevin Giarto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3139
Stefanus Darmagiri
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3530 Auto, Coal, Heavy Equip, Metal, Cement
Natalia Sutanto
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508 Consumer, Tobacco, Property
Yudha Gautama
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3509 Plantation
Helmy Kristanto
[email protected] (62-21) 2955 888 ext. 3500
Head of Research, Strategy
Eka Savitri
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Banking
Ignatius Teguh Prayoga
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511 Research Associate
Rendy Ben Philips
[email protected] (62-21) 29555 888 ext. 3148
Equity SNAPSHOT Thursday, October 19, 2017
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity SNAPSHOT
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