epidemiological modelling of phytophthora ramorum
DESCRIPTION
Epidemiological modelling of Phytophthora ramorum, sudden oak death, West Coast of the USA, England and Wales, plant pathology, landscape pathology. Connectivity loss in the North American power grid due to the removal of transmission substations.TRANSCRIPT
Epidemiological modeling of Phytophthora ramorum: network
properties of susceptible plant genera movements in the UK nursery sector
Marco Pautasso,1 Tom Harwood,2 Mike Shaw,2Xiangming Xu3 & Mike Jeger1
1 Imperial College London, UK 2 University of Reading, UK 3 East Malling Research, UK
SOD Symposium III,8 Mar 2007
From: Hufnagel, Brockmann & Geisel (2004) Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world. PNAS 101: 15124-15129
number of passengers per day
Disease spread in a globalized world
NATURAL
TECHNOLOGICAL SOCIAL
food webs
airport networks
cell metabolism
neural networks
railway networks
ant nests
WWWInternet
electrical power grids
software mapscomputing
gridsE-mail
patterns
innovation flows
telephone calls
co-authorship nets
family networks
committees
sexual partnerships DISEASE
SPREAD
Food web of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin, US
Internet structure
Network pictures from: Newman (2003) The structure and function of complex networks. SIAM Review 45: 167-256
HIV spread
network
Epidemiology is just one of the many applications of network theory
urban road networks
Modified from: Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist in press
Different types of networks
Modified from: Keeling & Eames (2005) Networks and epidemic models. Interface 2: 295-307
random scale-free
local small-world
Epidemic development in different types of networks
scale-freerandom2-D lattice rewired2-D lattice1-D lattice rewired1-D lattice
From: Shirley & Rushton (2005) The impacts of network topology on disease spread. Ecological Complexity 2: 287-299
N of nodes of networks = 500;p of infection = 0.1;
latent period = 2 time steps;infectious period = 10 time steps
Records positive to P. ramorum
0
25
50
75
100
Jan-03Apr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct-03
Jan-04Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-05Apr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct-05
n of
reco
rds nurseries/
gardencentres
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1104
Data source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
Records positive to P. ramorum
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-03Apr-0
3Ju
l-03
Oct-03
Jan-04Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-05Apr-0
5Ju
l-05
Oct-05
n of
reco
rds estates/
environment
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 1456
Data source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
Nursery records positive to P. ramorum
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-0
3Oct-
03Jan
-04Apr-0
4Ju
l-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-0
5Oct-
05
n of
reco
rds
UK origin
non-UK origin
Data source: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
Temporal development; England & Wales, 2003-2005; n = 704
England and Wales: records positive to Phytophthora ramorum
n = 2788
Jan 2003-Dec 2005
Data source: DEFRA, UKCourtesy of Richard Baker,CSL, UK
Web of susceptible genera connected by Phytophthora ramorum (based on genus co-existence in 2788 positive findings in England & Wales, 2003-2005)
Rhodo-dendron
Magnolia
Fagus
Castanea Taxus
Festuca
Laurus
Umbellularia
Drimys
Leucothoe
Kalmia
Parrotia
Syringa
Hamamelis
CamelliaViburnum
Pieris
Quercus
Data source: DEFRA, UK
y = -0.33x + 1.27R2 = 0.93
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
log10 n of positive P. ramorum records in database
log 1
0 num
ber o
f aff
ecte
d ge
nera
Frequency distribution of number of plant genera affected by Phytophthora ramorum by n of records in the database of 2788
positive findings in England & Wales, 2003-2005)
Data source: DEFRA, UK
Connectivity loss in the North American power grid due to the removal of transmission substations
From: Albert, Albert & Nakarado (2004) Structural vulnerability of the North American power grid. Physical Review E 69, 025103
transmission nodes removed (%)
AcknowledgementsAlan Inman, Department for Environment, Food
and Rural Affairs, UK
Claire Sansford, Judith Turner & Richard Baker,
Central Science Laboratory, York, UK
Sandra Denman & Joan Webber, Forest Research, Alice Holt, UK
Ottmar Holdenrieder, ETH, Zurich, CH
Jennifer Parke, Oregon State University
ReferencesDehnen-Schmutz K, Holdenrieder O, Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2010) Structural change in the international horticultural industry: some implications for plant health. Scientia Horticulturae 125: 1-15Harwood TD, Xu XM, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Shaw M (2009) Epidemiological risk assessment using linked network and grid based modelling: Phytophthora ramorum and P. kernoviae in the UK. Ecological Modelling 220: 3353-3361 Jeger MJ & Pautasso M (2008) Comparative epidemiology of zoosporic plant pathogens. European Journal of Plant Pathology 122: 111-126Jeger MJ, Pautasso M, Holdenrieder O & Shaw MW (2007) Modelling disease spread and control in networks: implications for plant sciences. New Phytologist 174: 179-197 Lonsdale D, Pautasso M & Holdenrieder O (2008) Wood-decaying fungi in the forest: conservation needs and management options. European Journal of Forest Research 127: 1-22 MacLeod A, Pautasso M, Jeger MJ & Haines-Young R (2010) Evolution of the international regulation of plant pests and challenges for future plant health. Food Security 2: 49-70 Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Disease spread in small-size directed networks: epidemic threshold, correlation between links to and from nodes, and clustering. J Theor Biol 260: 402-411Moslonka-Lefebvre M, Finley A, Dorigatti I, Dehnen-Schmutz K, Harwood T, Jeger MJ, Xu XM, Holdenrieder O & Pautasso M (2011) Networks in plant epidemiology: from genes to landscapes, countries and continents. Phytopathology 101: 392-403Pautasso M (2009) Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Systematics & Evolution 11: 157-189Pautasso M (2010) Worsening file-drawer problem in the abstracts of natural, medical and social science databases. Scientometrics 85: 193-202Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2008) Epidemic threshold and network structure: the interplay of probability of transmission and of persistence in directed networks. Ecological Complexity 5: 1-8Pautasso M et al (2010) Plant health and global change – some implications for landscape management. Biological Reviews 85: 729-755Pautasso M, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Jeger MJ (2010) The number of links to and from the starting node as a predictor of epidemic size in small-size directed networks. Ecological Complexity 7: 424-432 Pautasso M, Xu XM, Jeger MJ, Harwood T, Moslonka-Lefebvre M & Pellis L (2010) Disease spread in small-size directed trade networks: the role of hierarchical categories. Journal of Applied Ecology 47: 1300-1309Xu XM, Harwood TD, Pautasso M & Jeger MJ (2009) Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales. Ecography 32: 504-516