epar uw request 261 mobile tech slide deck 06.20.2014 …...evans school policy analysis &...

Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR)

MOBILE COVERAGE

June 2014

GLOBAL, REGIONAL, & NATIONAL MOBILE COVERAGE AND ADOPTION TRENDS


Global Snapshot of Mobile Coverage12% of the world’s population is uncovered

Regional Snapshots of Mobile CoverageAn estimated 427 million people without coverage (52% of those without coverage) are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and South East Asia

National Snapshots of Mobile CoverageOver 174 million people live without coverage in selected priority countries

Mobile Adoption and UsagePoor, rural, and female individuals report lower household ownership of a handset

Conclusion & Data Sources

AGENDA


Rural44%Urban

56%

12% of the world’s population lives in areas without mobile coverage.Of the 88% that live within mobile coverage, 44% live in rural areas.Of those that are uncovered, 92% live in rural areas.

Global Coverage Snapshot

Covered88%

Uncovered12%

Rural92%

Urban8%


Global Population Density Inside and Outside Mobile Coverage

The highlighted regions account for 52.2% of the world’s uncovered population, totaling over 427 million people.


Type of Global Mobile Coverage and Population Density

Most mobile coverage in Latin America, Africa, and Asia is GSM.


Africa Percent of population covered increased from 10% to 60% from 1999-2008, a 5.5 percentage point annual increase.1

73% of Africa’s population is estimated to be covered as of 2013.2

Rate of coverage increase is slowing as networks expand into less economically viable areas3 characterized by:1

• Low population density• Low road density• Difficult geography• Lack of proximate electricity grids

1. Aker, J. (2008). Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol 23(8).2. Estimate produced by Spatial Dev utilizing LandScan population density dataset and Collins Bartholomew coverage data. Please see data slides for more information. 3. Williams, M, Mayer, R., Minges, M. (2011). Africa’s ICT Infrastructure: Building on the Mobile Revolution. The World Bank: Directions in Development.

Mobile Coverage Trends


The World Bank estimates that a total expenditure of $15.5 billion would be required over the course of 8 years to expand basic GSM service to Africa’s entire population.1

1. Williams, M., Mayer, R., Minges, M. (2011). Africa’s ICT Infrastructure: Building on the Mobile Revolution. The World Bank: Directions in Development.

$15.5 billion

Cost to Expand Coverage


“Even in the most favorable policy and incentive environment, in most countries in

Africa a small but significant proportion of the population will be found in areas that are not

commercially viable. Some form of direct financial subsidy is therefore needed to

provide an incentive for operators to expand their networks into these areas.”

-Williams, M., Mayer, R., Minges, M. (2011). Africa’s ICT Infrastructure: Building on the Mobile Revolution. The World Bank: Directions in

Development.

Key Quote


Global Snapshot of Mobile Coverage

Regional Snapshots of Mobile Coverage

National Snapshots of Mobile Coverage

Mobile Adoption and Usage


AGENDA


Regional Summary Statistics

Region(Russia and China

not included)

Percent of World’s Population Living Outside Coverage

Rural Population Outside Coverage

Number of People Living Outside of

Coverage (Millions)

Western Africa 9.6% 34.2% 79

Southern Africa 1.6% 27.1% 13

Central Africa 8% 61.7% 66

Eastern Africa 14.6% 44.5% 119

Northern Africa 1.2% 11.3% 8.8

South Asia 17% 12% 139

Southeast Asia 11% 21.9% 90.8


Western Africa

9.6% of the world’s uncovered live here

Of this population:

• 24.6% lives outside of mobile coverage

• Over 79 million people

• Rural Population: 70.8%• 34.2% of the rural

population lives outsideof mobile coverage.

• Urban Population: 29.2%• 1.4% of the urban


Key Findings

Data Sources: Coverage Data: GSMA and Collins Bartholomew (2012)Population Density: Landscan (2012)


Southern Africa


Of this population:

• 14.7% of population lives outside of mobile coverage






Key Findings



Central Africa

8% of the world’s uncovered live here

Of this population:







Key Findings



Eastern Africa


Of this population:







Key Findings



Northern Africa


Of this population:


• Over 8.8 million people





Key Findings



South Asia


Of this population:

• 8% of population lives outside of mobile coverage


• Rural Population: 61.8%• 12% of the rural




Key Findings



Southeast Asia


Of this population:







Key Findings








AGENDA


Summary Statistics – FSP Focus Countries

Country Percent of World’s Population Living Outside Coverage

Rural Population Outside Coverage

Number of People Living Outside of

Coverage (Millions)

Bangladesh 0.15% 0.7% 0.8

Ethiopia 9.92% 95.5% 81.4

Indonesia 4.6% 26% 38

Kenya 0.4% 11.5% 3

Nigeria 4.7% 31.9% 38.8

Pakistan 1% 7.8% 7.9

Tanzania 0.4% 8.7% 3.4

Uganda 0.1% 3.4% 1


Bangladesh0.1% of the world’s uncovered live here

• 0.5% of the population lives outside of mobile coverage

• Over 800,000 people

• Rural Population: 72%• 0.7% of the rural


• Urban Population: 28%• 0.03% of the urban


Key Findings



*Data Source: Coverage Data Provided by GSMA

Coverage Trends

Bangladesh

82%

90% 90% 90%

94%

97% 97% 99%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

enta

ge o

f Po

pula

tion

Co

vere

d

Network Coverage in Bangladesh by % of Population*

banglalink (Global Telecom)


Ethiopia9.92% of the world’s uncovered live here



• Rural Population: 88.6%• 95.5% of the rural population

lives outside of mobile coverage.

• Urban Population: 11.4%• 41.8% of the urban population

lives outside of mobile coverage.

Ethio Telecom, the state owned telecommunications company has a monopoly on communications in Ethiopia, which is a key contributing factor to low coverage.1

1. Williams, M., Mayer, R., Minges, M. (2011). Africa’s ICT Infrastructure: Building on the Mobile Revolution. The World Bank: Directions in Development.

Key Findings



Indonesia4.6% of the world’s uncovered live here



• Rural Population: 57.5%• 26% of the rural




Key Findings




Coverage Trends

Indonesia

84%

92%

90%90%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

enta

ge o

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pula

tion

Cov

ered

Network Coverage in Indonesia by % of Population

XL (Axiata)


Kenya0.4% of the world’s uncovered live here





• Urban Population: 23.4%• 0% of the urban


Key Findings



Nigeria4.7% of the world’s uncovered live here







Key Findings




Coverage Trends

Nigeria

28%

59%

74%78%

89%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

enta

ge o

f Po

pula

tion

Cov

ered

Network Coverage in Nigeria by % of Population

Etisalat (EMTS)

MTN


Pakistan1% of the world’s

uncovered live here







Key Findings




Coverage Trends

Pakistan

73%73%

76%

85%85%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

enta

ge o

f Po

pula

tion

Cov

ered

Network Coverage in Nigeria by % of Population

Mobilink (Global Telecom)

PTCL


Tanzania0.4% of the world’s uncovered live here







Key Findings




Coverage Trends

Tanzania

60% 60%62%

75%

24%

42% 42%44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Perc

enta

ge o

f Po

pula

tion

Cov

ered

Network Coverage in Tanzania by % of Population

Tigo (Millicom)

Vodacom

Zantel (Etisalat)


Uganda0.1% of the world’s uncovered live here

• 3% of the population lives outside of mobile coverage






Key Findings








AGENDA


Projection

Subscriber penetration rates are expected to exceed 40 and 50 percent by 2018 in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, respectively.

*Data Source: Subscriber Penetration Data Provided by GSMA

45.58%

36.09%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Q4

2009

Q4

2010

Q4

2011

Q4

2012

Q4

2013

Q4

2014

Q4

2015

Q4

2016

Q4

2017

Quarterly Subscriber Penetration (% Population)*

Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa


647,956,980

346,678,537

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Q4

2013

Q4

2014

Q4

2015

Q4

2016

Q4

2017

Q4

2018

Mill

ions

Quarterly Total and Prepaid Connections, Sub-Saharan Africa*

Sub-Saharan Africa Total Connections Sub-Saharan Africa Prepaid Connections

Projection

Prepaid connections drive over half of all connection growth in Sub Saharan Africa.

*Data Source: Total & Prepaid Connections Data Provided by GSMA


Prepaid connections drive over half of all connection growth in South and Southeast Asia and are projected to comprise nearly ¾ by 2018.

2,063,625,181

1,221,111,577

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Q1

2013

Q4

2013

Q4

2014

Q4

2015

Q4

2016

Q4

2017

Q4

2018

Mill

ions

Quarterly Total and Prepaid Connections, South and Southeast Asia*

SE and South Asia Total Connections

SE and South Asia Prepaid Connections

Projection

*Data Source: Total & Prepaid Connections Data Provided by GSMA


[0,50](50,70](70,80](80,90](90,100]No data

Household Mobile Phone Penetration, by Economy

Africa has the lowest household mobile phone penetration rates according to a 2012 Gallup World Poll


Household Mobile Ownership Rates

in Africa*

According to the most recently reported ITU data, eight African countries have less than 50% household mobile ownership rates: Tanzania, Sierra Leone, Rwanda, Niger, Malawi, Madagascar, Liberia, Djibouti

*International Telecommunication Union; Data is from most recent year reported; ranges from 2010-2012

Percentage of Households with Mobile Coverage

Countries with less than 50% of Households with Mobile Coverage

75.7

81.0

28.9

93.5

57.0

63.2

43.2

26.3

36.3

90.8

99.4

31.9

59.7

40.3

92.0

89.3

28.1

85.8

28.1

91.6

62.2

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0

Cape Verde

Congo

Djibouti

Egypt

Ghana

Kenya

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Mauritius

Morocco

Niger

Nigeria

Rwanda

Senegal

Seychelles

Sierra Leone

South Africa

Tanzania

Tunisia

Zimbabwe


*Data Source: Gallup World Poll Data, 2013

The gap in household phone ownership averaged 25% between the richest and poorest quintiles in Africa in 2013, with a high of 60%

(Angola), and low of 1% (Morocco).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Household Mobile Phone Ownership by Wealth Quintile, Africa*

Poorest 20% Wealthiest 20%



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Household Mobile Phone Ownership by Wealth Quintile, Asia*

Poorest 20% Richest 20%

Gaps in mobile phone ownership between the richest and poorest quintiles are generally lower in Asia than in Africa. The gap averaged 11% in Asia in

2013, with a high of 54% (Myanmar), and low of 2% (Thailand).


Innovative shared phone-use systems are emerging to provide broader mobile phone access, including:1

• Grameen Bank’s “Village Phone” which reports serving over 100,000 villages.1

• Franchise shops, “grey market ladies,” and pay-for-use phone shops.2

1. Donner, J. (2008). Research Approaches to Mobile Use in the Developing World: A Review of the Literature. The Information Society 24(3). 140-159. 2. Skuse, A., Cousins, T. (2007). Managing distance: The social dynamics of rural telecommunications access and use in the Eastern Cape3. Vodaphone (2005) Africa: The impact of mobile phones. Vodafone Policy Paper Number 2. March 2005. Photo Credit: Grameen Bank

Vodafone reports suggest that in a typical developing country, an increase of 10 mobile phones per 100 people increases GDP growth by 6%.3


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mobile Phone Ownership by Gender, Africa*

Male Female

The male-female gap in mobile phone ownership in Africa averaged 6% in 2013, with a high of 11% (Rwanda), and a low of -4% (Kenya), meaning

that more females than males own phones in Kenya.



Data from the Gallup 2013 World Poll does not suggest a large gap in phone ownership by gender in Asia.


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Mobile Phone Ownership by Gender, Asia*

Male Female


In Rwanda, women are more likely to use a shared phone than men.1

In Mumbai, in poorer households that own a single mobile phone, men are more likely to be in possession of this phone.2

In Africa, male and female phone usage patterns appear similar.3

1. Blumenstock, J., Eagle, N. (2007). Mobile Divides: Gender, Socioeconomic Status, and Mobile Phone Use in Rwanda. Proceedings of the 4th IEEE/ACM International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies.

2. Babarm., Shaw, J., Viczany, M. (2012). Mobile Phone Access and Usage Among Female Micro-Entrepreneurs in Bombay City Today. 3. Scott, N. (2004). The Use of Telephones Amongst the Poor in Africa: Some Gender Implications. Gender, Technology, and Development. Vol 8: 1850207.



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Rural-Urban Mobile Phone Ownership, Africa*

Urban Rural

The gap in rural-urban household phone ownership averaged 25% in Africa in 2013, with a high of 50% (Angola), and low of -1% (Jordan).



The gap in rural-urban household phone ownership averaged 12% in Asia in 2013, with a high of 54% (Myanmar), and low of 0% (Thailand).

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Rural-Urban Mobile Phone Ownership, Asia*

Urban Rural







AGENDA


CONCLUSION

The poor and rural have lower handset ownership rates; the rural-urban gap is larger in Africa than in Asia.2

Conclusions

Gender disparities in handset ownership appear relatively small, although are larger in Africa than in Asia.2

Coverage is unlikely to reach areas that are far from electrical grids, have low population and road densities, and/or difficult geographies.1

Coverage

Adoption: Access for the Rural

Poor

Adoption: Access by Gender

1. Aker, J. (2008). Mobile Phones and Economic Development in Africa. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. Vol 23(8). 2. Gallup World Poll Data, 2013


GSMA Intelligence: Provides mobile operator data, analysis and forecasts, and metrics for industry customers. Data includes over 13 million individual data points (updated daily), metrics on the performance of 1,140 operators and 1,153 MVNOs across 3,505 networks, 65 groups, and 236 countries worldwide.1 Although these data are the best available, there are shortcomings particularly with coverage data. Data are self-reported by the mobile network provider and do not capture all providers, but only those who choose to submit their data.

Gallup: Gallup World Polls conduct in-person interviews in developing countries. Samples are probability based and nationally representative of the resident population aged 15 and older. Survey samples are collected using an area frame design and stratified by population size and/or geography, clustering is achieved through one or more stages of sampling. Where population information is available, sample selection is based on probabilities proportional to population size; otherwise, Gallup uses simple random sampling. The coverage area for polls is the entire country, including rural areas, with some safety exceptions. Respondents are selected randomly by using either the latest birthday or Kish grid method. In some Middle East and Asian countries, gender-matched interviewing is required, and probability sampling with quotas is implemented during the final stage of selection.2

1. GSMA Intelligence website: https://gsmaintelligence.com/about/#2. Gallup website: http://www.gallup.com/strategicconsulting/156923/worldwide-research-methodology.aspx

Data Sources


Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1):1 References to urban and rural in this presentation were based on the categorization by the GRUMPS dataset used in the creation of the maps. Urban and rural areas are 30 arc-second, 1 km grids that are distinguished by a combination of variables: population counts, settlement points, and the presence of nighttime lights. Urban refers to contiguous lighted cells OR approximate urban extents based on buffered settlement points for which the total population is greater than 5,000.

LandScan: LandScan is the most recent population density dataset available, and represents ambient population density rather than static or residential population density.

Collins Bartholomew: A private research organization that captures geographic data on mobile technology. Collins Bartholomew vector maps represent the geographic area covered by a 2G and 3G network that are available in ESRI shapefile format and WGS84 datum. This dataset is industry-reported and therefore depicts the best-case scenario of cell coverage.

1. Center for International Earth Science Information Network – CIESIN – Columbia University, International Food Policy ResearchInstitute – IFPRI, The World Bank, and Centro Interacional de Agricultura Tropical – CIAT, 2011. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1): Urban Extents Grid. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC).

Data Sources

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