environmental security: the impacts of climate change in the arctic björn gunnarsson, ph.d rector...

Environmental Security:The Impacts of Climate Change

in the Arctic

Björn Gunnarsson, Ph.DRector

RES | the School for Renewabale Energy Science

Akureyri, Iceland

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.res.is/

The Arctic Region

Satellite Image Courtesy NASASatellite Image Courtesy NASA

Why this Interest in the Arctic?Arctic holds about 25% of “Undiscovered Petroleum”

(USGS World Petroleum Assessment, 2000)

Fossil Fuel Reserves

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved reserves would last at current production rates.

World R/P ratios are: Oil = 40.5 years; Natural Gas = 66.7 years; Coal = 164 years

U.S. R/P ratios are: Oil = 11.1 years; Natural Gas = 9.8 years; Coal = 245 years

Oil Gas Coal

40.5 yrs.

66.7 yrs.

164 yrs.

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Your children

Your Grand-children

Declining Resource Production

production gap!

Time

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supply

Presentation Content

A. Climate Change & Rapidly Changing Arctic Environment

B. Climate Change Impacts on the Exploitation and Transport of Fossil Fuels in the North

C. Climate Change Impacts on Shipping in the Arctic Ocean

A. Climate Change & Rapidly Changing Arctic Environment

Global Warming

What is 4oC Difference?

20

-2-4-6-8

-10

Tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

(o C)

4oC

4oC

The Rapidly Changing Arctic Environment

• The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) and Arctic Human Development Report (AHDR)

• Global Climate Models (GCM) predict that the avg. temperature in the Arctic could rise as much as 3-9 °C in the next 100 years (IPCC)

• Changes in climate and environmental conditions, prey abundance/distribution and bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollution/heavy metals pose a real threat to indigenous people in the Arctic that decrease their options for sustainable development and endanger their existence (AMAP, CAFF, PAME)

Global Warming by 2°C

Surface Reflectivity

• White snow and ice reflect most of the solar energy that reaches the surface back to space (or 85-90%). Melting back of snow and ice reveals the darker land (reflecting 20%) and ocean water (reflecting 10%) beneath, which absorb most of the sun's energy. This warms the surface further, causing faster melting, which in turn causes more warming.

• Forests are projected to expand northward into areas that are currently tundra. Taller, darker, and more textured forests absorb more solar energy than tundra.

• Soot, from burning of fossil fuels, darkens the surfaces of snow and ice, causing them to reflect less of the sun's energy, thus further increasing warming.

Surface Reflectivity

Local GHG Emissions in the Arctic

• Large amount of carbon is currently stored (trapped) as organic matter in the permafrost that underlies much of the Arctic. During the summer, when the surface layer (active layer) thaws, organic matter starts to decompose, releasing methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere, increasing the warming trend. More warming causes increased releases of CO2 and CH4 from the permafrost.

• Release of large quantities of methane hydrates, trapped in coastal permafrost at shallow depths in ocean sediments, would have very large climate impacts.

Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

• Arctic sea ice is a key indicator of climate change, affecting surface reflectivity, cloudiness, humidity, exchanges of heat and moisture at the ocean surface, and ocean currents

• Changes in sea ice have enormous environmental, economic, and social implications.


Arctic Sea Ice

Extent: 3% decrease per decade

Multi-year ice/perennial pack ice: 7% decrease per decade in area extent

Thickness: 14-32% reductions reported

General increase in the length of the ice melt season

Sea-Ice Melting

National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, U.S.A.

Sea-Ice Melting

4.3 million sq km4.3 million sq km

National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, U.S.A.

Rapidly Changing Arctic Environment

• Reduced sea ice thickness and extent

• Thawing of previously frozen ground

• Increases in precipitation

• Increases in storm surges and coastal erosion

• Winter temperatures increasing

• Warming of the Arctic Oceanic waters

• Increased river flows in Siberia

• Record low level of stratospheric ozone

• Increases in ground levels of ultraviolet radiation

• Variations in the ranges of animals and ecosystems

What 2°C Means for the Arctic (WWF)

• Continued northward movement of commercial fish stocks, and a potential increase of productivity in Arctic waters.

• Ice-free coastlines during summer along the northern coast of Russia, potentially Greenland and most of North America, and significantly less winter sea ice.

• Disappearance of up to 60% of existing tundra habitat, replaced by boreal forest and/or polar desert.

• Corresponding decreases in reindeer/caribou populations.

• Most likely, declines of 30% or more in populations of polar bears; similar declines for walrus and ice-loving seals; continued declines for Arctic seabirds such as the ivory gull.

B. Climate Change Impacts on the Exploitation and Transport

of Fossil Fuels in the North

Arctic Fossil Fuels Resources

Economic and Political Drivers for Natural Resource Exploitation in

the Arctic• Arctic oil and natural gas - geopolitical necessity for

Western Europe to develop alternative energy supplies to those traditionally available from the Middle East – EU´s future energy security

• Growing competition for Middle East energy reserves by China and India – high oil prices

• Growing political uncertainty surrounding availability of Middle East oil reserves due to security considerations in the Middle East


the Arctic• Transport of various metals, mineral fertilizers, timber,

coal, and fish and other marine products. Altogether, exports of oil, natural gas and other natural resource products from the Russian Arctic makes up a high percentage of Russia's foreign currency (60%)

• In 2004, Russia's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by about 7.0%, surpassing avg. growth rates in all other G8 countries, and marking the country's 5th consecutive year of economic expansion – fueled primarily by increased energy exports and high world oil prices


the Arctic

Oil and gas development in the Arctic Russia currently suffers from lack of export routes – marine transportation using NSR is a vital alternative

Oil Exploitation in the NW Russia

Oil and Gas Pipelines in Russia

Permafrost Thawing

Permafrost Thawing

• Resource Extraction Infrastructure - As frozen ground thaws, oil and natural gas extraction and production facilities, power stations, pipelines, buildings, roads, railroads, airports, river and harbor terminals and other energy and industrial facilities will increasingly become destabilized, requiring substantial rebuilding, maintenance, and investment.

• Narrow Weather Windows, Logistics & Transportation - Transportation of oil and gas (coal) will increasingly by disrupted by the shortening of the periods during which ice roads and tundra are frozen sufficiently to permit travel. Northern communities that rely on frozen roadways to truck in supplies are also being affected.

Permafrost Thawing

Permafrost Thawing

• Oil Spills - Damage to oil and gas pipelines in the permafrost zone presents a particularly serious situation; 16 breaks were recorded on the Messoyakha-Norilsk pipeline in Siberia in 2003. In the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous district of Siberia 1702 accidents involving spills occurred and more than 640 km2 of land were removed from use in one year because of soil contamination (ACIA, 2004).

Permafrost Thawing

Permafrost Thawing

• Other Impacted Infrastructure - Permafrost thawing also affects other infrastructure, i.e. could adversely affect sanitation infrastructure and drinking water quality, limit efficient freshwater delivery, and cause direct damage to facilities and lead to adverse impacts on human health.

• Need for New Design - Future energy exploitation development will require new design elements to account for ongoing warming that will add to construction and maintenance costs.

Sea-Ice Melting & Coastal Erosion

Increased Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet


• Thinner, less extensive sea ice creates more open water, allowing stronger wave generation by winds, thus increasing wave-induced erosion along Arctic shores. When the buffer provided by the shore ice has been lost, the full force of ocean waves are allowed to surge against the coastline and coastal villages.

• Coastal regions with underlying permafrost are especially vulnerable to erosion as ice beneath the seabed and shoreline thaws from contact with warmer air and water. Low-lying, ice-rich permafrost coasts are most vulnerable to wave-induced erosion.


• Sea-ice decline, sea-level rise, storm surges, and thawing coastal permafrost is very likely to force the relocation of some coastal villages and create increasing stress on others (causing substantial social impacts).

• Coastal erosion will pose increasing problems for some ports, oil tanker terminals, and other industrial and transportation facilities.

• Attempts to control this erosion will become increasingly expensive as the surrounding coastline continues to retreat. Many current coastal sites could become uninhabitable.


• Low-lying coastlines experiencing land subsidence (i.e. Beaufort Sea and Siberian coasts) are particularly vulnerable.

• Soil slopes are made less stable by thawing permafrost, and this will result in more landslides. In general, Arctic coastal infrastructure will be impacted with more frequent floods, mudslides, rockslides and avalanches. These events are closely associated with heavy precipitation events, high river runoff, and elevated temperatures.


• Reduced sea ice is likely to allow increased offshore extraction of oil and gas, although increased ice movements and wave action are likely to hinder some operations.

• Increased exploitation and transport of oil and gas along the Arctic coastline and on the Arctic shelf will increase the danger of serious oil spills and other industrial accidents.

Oil Spills in Arctic Waters


• Recent studies suggests that the effects of oil spills in a high-latitude, cold ocean environment last much longer and are far worse than first suspected.

• Oil breaks down very slowly and is difficult to clean up in ice-covered waters. Oil can be transported with drifting ice over long distances.


• The overall strategy for Arctic oil spills must be preventative. New regulations for ships, offshore structures, port facilities and other coastal activities, and land-based structures must be designed to reduce the risk of spills through enhanced construction standards and operating procedures.

• Develop effective response strategies to deal with spills in ice-covered Arctic waters and in Arctic tundra environments.

Each year Arctic rivers carry about 4,200 km3 of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean along with a calculated 221 million tons of sediments

River Flooding

Radioactive Pollutants

Air Pollution in the Arctic

Pollution in the Arctic

• Winds, rivers and ocean currents bring contaminants into the Arctic. Contaminants emitted in northern industrial areas are transported to the Arctic where they may become concentrated as they move up the food chain

• As temperature rise, snow and ice accumulated over the years and decades will melt, and the contaminants stored within will be released in melt water

• POPs and heavy metals (mercury) become increasingly concentrated as they move up the food chain, resulting in high levels in polar bears, Arctic fox and various seals, whales, fish, seabirds, and birds of prey. Arctic people that eat those species are thus exposed to potentially harmful levels of these pollutants

C. Climate Change Impacts on Shipping in the Arctic

Ocean

Some Major Trade Routes by Sea

Future Arctic Trade Routes

The Northern Sea Route (NSR)

Northwest Passage

The Northern Sea Route vs. Suez

Economic and Political Drivers for NSR as a Container Traffic Route

• The NSR represents up to 50% saving of distance from Northern Europe to Norteast Asia and the northwest coast of North America, compared to routes via Suez and Panama Canals – potentially large economic benefits

• Will strengthen commerce and cooperation between the European and Asian markets. The center of world trade has already moved from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific

• Trade distances, cargo volumes and ship sizes have all increased. Large container ships are unable to sail into ports designed for smaller ships


Much larger ships can sail through the NSR than the Suez and Panama Canals. Container ships of the near future (2015) will be 15.000-20.000 TEUs*, with a draft of about 21 m. Largest oil tankers of today are about 450.000 dwt with a draft of 25 m.

* TEU = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units


Central transshipment ports play an increasingly large role in the coordination of logistics. Approx. 25-30% of all containers used in international sea transport were transshipped in 1999-2000, and the percentage is rising sharply

The Atlantic-Arctic-Pacific Corridor

The Arctic Ocean of Today....

.. to the Arctic Ocean of the Future?

Arctic Shipping: Technical and Environmental Issues

• A large scale global investment is needed of icebreakers, aids to navigation, construction of a fleet of large powerful ice-class cargo ships, and transshipment ports to transfer cargo between ice-strengthened and non-ice-strengthened ships


• Necessary infrastructure to provide safety, route reliability, and environmental protection along the NSR, including:

Real-time delivery of high resolution satellite data, aviation services and ice reconnaissance, and data from ground-based monitoring and forecasting platforms


Route optimization and icebreaker(s) assistance

Sophisticated communication system organized under one umbrella for the entire length of the NSR (i.e. to report of weather and sea-ice conditions)

Emergency preparedness, search & rescue and emergency assistance

Pollution prevention and clean-up technologies

Political, Legal and Administrative Issues regarding the NSR

The issue of sovereignty in an ice-reduced Arctic Ocean – disputes over waterways and Arctic resources

Security issues – increased shipping will require an increase in monitoring and enforcement of domestic and international laws governing smuggling, environmental standards and ship safety

Social, cultural, and environmental concerns are likely to arise as marine access increases

Icebreaker fees – need to be calculated on the basis of 100% occupation

Political, Legal and Administrative Issues regarding the NSRs

Insurance fees – need to consider thinning ice, optimized route and advanced ice reconnaissance

The legal and regulatory framework – needs to be customer friendly and reliable

Communication system – needs to be reliable

Demonstration of the advantages of the NSRs – Russia/EU/North America should support commercial NSR voyages by using ice-strengthened container ships; feasibility studies

Thank You!

Readings

• Impact of a Warming Arctic – the 140 page synthesis report of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), Cambridge University Press, 2004; see www.acia.uaf.edu

• Reports of the various working groups of the Arctic Council; see AC homepage.

http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

Workshop Task 1

Base on what you know of the rapid climatic and environmental changes already occurring in the Arctic environment, what do you suggest should be done -- adapt to the changing environment or/and try to mitigate at any cost further changes. Give a detailed explanation for your answer.

How do you define environmental security in the Circumpolar Arctic? How will environmental risks likely change in the Arctic and Sub-Arctic in the coming years?

Workshop Task 2

A meeting has been scheduled between the ministers of the Arctic Countries to approve an international agreement or protocol on how to manage the Arctic and Sub-Arctic environments. You represent the ministers with full political (bargaining) power.

What will be the main points of the new agreement? Why?

What will be the main concern or likely dispute and how will this be resolved?

Do you think it is likely that such an agreement will ever see the light of day? If yes then when? If no, why? and also discuss the consequences.

environmental security: the impacts of climate change in the arctic björn gunnarsson, ph.d rector...

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