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The Environment and the

Middle East

Pathways to Sustainability

Volume 1

Middle East Institute Viewpoints

February 2011


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Table of Contents

About the Authors 6

Introduction 9

Sustainable Development and the Built Environment in the Middle East:Challenges and Opportunities,Karim Elgendy 10

Solar Power ScaleUp in the MENA: Resolving the Associated Water Use Challenges,Adriana M. Valenica 13

Impacts o Water Scarcity on the Social Welare o Citizens in the Middle East,Muawya Ahmed Hussein 20

Living with Soil Salinity: Is It Possible?,Mushtaque Ahmed and Salim A. Al-Rawah 25

Innovating Ways to Face the Eects o Environmental Degradation,

Mahi Tabet-Aoul 28

Improvement o Air Quality in Egypt: Te Role o Natural Gas,Ibrahim Abdel Gelil 32

Te Politics o Water Scarcity in Egypt,Brian Chatterton 35

Environmental Science at Qatar University: Realizing Qatars 2030 Vision,Malcolm Potts 40

LowCost Methods to reat Greywater: A Case Study rom Oman,Mushtaque Ahmed, S.A. Prathapar, and Seif Al-Adawi 45



About the Authors

e views epressed in these Viewpoints are those of the authors; the Middle East Institute does not take positions on Middle East polic.

Brian Chatterton was educated in India, Australia, and Britain. He then became a farmer,grapegrower, and winemaker and was elected to the South Australian Parliament in 1973. He

became Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forests two ears later. Since retirement he hasconsulted on drland farming and water issues in North Africa and West Asia. See www.drlandfarming.org.

Dr. Mushtaque Ahmed is the Director of the Center for Environmental Studies and Research(CESAR) and Associate Professor of the Department of Soils, Water, and Agricultural Engineer-ing, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos Universit (SQU) of Oman.He joined SQU in 1996. He obtained a PhD in Water Resources (major) and Soil Phsics (minor)from Iowa State Universit, Ames, Iowa in 1988 and a MS in Civil Engineering from the Universitof Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu in 1984. He is a corporate member of the Institution of Engineers,Australia, and a member of the International Association of Hdrological Sciences and the AsiaOceania Geosciences Societ. Before joining SQU he worked for CSIRO in Australia and the

NSW state government.

Dr. Salim A. Al-Rawah teaches in the Department of Soils, Water & Agricultural Engineer-

ing at the College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences in Sultan Qaboos (SQU) Universit inOman. He received his PhD degree in Soil and Water Sciences at the Universit of Arizona, inTucson in 1989. He has been the Principal Investigator of Strategic Project Management ofSalt-Aected Soils and Water for Sustainable Agriculture (20062010).

Saif S. Al-Adawi is a Chief Technician (Agricultural Engineering) in the Department of SoilsWater, and Agricultural Engineering, College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences, Sultan Qaboos Universit. He graduated in 1992 from Sultan Qaboos Universit with a BSc in Agricultura

Mechanization and in 1995 obtained a MSc degree in Agricultural Engineering from e OhioState Universit, Columbus, Ohio.



Dr. Ibrahim Abdel Gelil is Professor, Academic Chair, H.H. Sheikh Zaed Bin Sultan Al Nahanin Environmental Science, and the Director of the Graduate Studies Program on EnvironmentalManagement, College of Graduate Studies, Arabian Gulf Universit (AGU), Kingdom of Bahrain.

Karim Elgend is an architect and sustainabilit consultant based in London. He is the found-er of Carboun, an initiative advocating sustainabilit and environmental conservation in theMiddle East. Carboun.com provides an online platform for sharing resources relating to sus-tainabilit and the environment in the region. For more information on the Carboun initiativeand to access these resources, visit www.carboun.com.

Muawa Ahmed Hussein is a professor at Dhofar Universit, College of Commerce & BusinesAdministration, Salalah,Oman.

Malcolm Potts is Professor of Biochemistr Emeritus in the Department of Biological and Envi-ronmental Sciences, Qatar Universit. Dr. Potts earned BSc, PhD, and DSc degrees from DurhamUniversit. His doctoral and post-doctoral studies include: Roal Societ Research Station Al-

dabra Atoll; Oldenburg Universit, German; Roal Societ Post-Doctoral Fellow Israel Acad-em of Sciences; and McMurdo Station, Antarctica. He has held academic positions at FloridaState Universit and Virginia Tech. Research and educational development activities of the authorand colleagues in the DBES are supported through a grant from the Qatar National Research Fund

(QNRF) of Qatar Foundation, in the National Priorities Research Program (grant NPRP 27-6-7-24), an Undergraduate Research Eperience Program award (UREP 07-020-1-004), and supportfrom Qatar Universit (QU). e views epressed in this article are solel those of the author anddo not necessaril reect the opinion of either QNRF or QU.

About the Authors (cont.)



About the Authors (cont.)

Adriana M. Valencia has a PhD and a Masters in Science from the Universit of California,Berkele in Energ and Resources. She has several ears of multi-regional work eperience inthe environmental and renewable energ elds in various organizations.

Mahi Tabet-Aoul received degrees in telecommunications engineering and meteorolog engineering at Strasbourg Universit and Paris-Sorbonne. He specialized in the eld of the atmosphere aboth the Universit of Fort-Collins and the Universit of Miami, and has taught at Laval Univer-sit in Canada as a visiting professor. Aoul was the founder and rst Director of the Hdrom-torological Institute for training and research.

Sanmugam A. Prathapar is currentl the Dean of the College of Agricultural and Marine Sci-

ences, Sultan Qaboos Universit, Oman. He received a PhD degree in Agricultural Engineeringfrom Teas A & M Universit in 1986. Before joining SQU in 2002, he served at the Universitof Technolog, Sdne (20012002), the International Water Management Institute (19962001)and the Commonwealth Scientic and Industrial Research Organization (19871996).



Introduction

As this publication is being launched, Egypt enters the third week o nationwide protests. Indeed, there is

evidence o political erment throughout the Arab world, as people have taken to the streets in unisia, Jordan

Lebanon, and Yemen. It is these events and where they may lead the region politically that have claimed the

headlines, and deservedly so. Yet, no less important than how the regions politics may be reshaped in the coming

months is whether, and how, its physical environment will be preserved in the ace o a multitude o challenges

Tis volume is the rst o several collections o essays dealing with the Environment and the Middle East. Impor

tantly, these essays ocus less on the problems themselves than on what can and should be done to address them.

As the subtitle Pathways to Sustainability suggests, the series eatures some o the many examples o environ

mental stewardship practiced and promoted throughout the region by scientists, teachers, nongovernmental

organizations, community activists, and many others. One can only hope that the current political turbulence

will give rise to arsighted leadership and a climate that embraces and supports such contributions.



Sustainable Development and the Built Environment in the Middle East:

Challenges and Opportunities

Karim Elgendy

In the Western context, notions o sustainable development oen reer to the need to adjust existing economic modelsin order to maintain better balances between economic growth and social needs, while protecting local ecologies and

reducing the negative impact o growth on the global environment.

In the developing world, however, sustainable development takes on a rather dierent meaning. With the agendas o de

veloping nations ocused on addressing basic developmental challenges such as economic growth, water scarcity, ood

security, and health, other environmental and social aspects are considered secondary at best and, or the most part, a

luxury that a developing nation cannot aord.

In the absence o unctioning economic models in the developing world, sustainable development here is not about

adjustments to maintain balances. Instead, it is about using this economical tabula rasa to build the oundations o a

new economic model in which sustainability and the environment are integral. One o these economic oundations is

the built environment.

Te built environment o our cities plays a major role in shaping the way we live and work, and given its relatively long

liespan, its impact is long lasting. Our buildings determine how much energy we use to maintain thermal comort

,while our inrastructures determine how much energy we need or transportation. It is estimated that 40% o carbon

emissions worldwide are produced rom the occupation o buildings, with at least a portion o transportations 20%

share being a consequence o the way our cities are planned.

Our built environment also inuences our impact on the local environment as well as our collective health and wellbe

ing. Tus, as the cities o the developing world continue to grow, they continue to make decisions about the direction

their development takes.

In the Middle East, the role o the built environment is becoming more pronounced as the region continues to experience

rapid population increases and urbanization. Increased urban densities, together with the rise o consumerism, have notonly led to an increase in environmental degradation locally, but they have also meant that the regions traditionally low

energy use and consequently its carbon emissions are set to rise and play a larger role in global climate change.

But embracing sustainable development in the built environment o the Middle East aces many challenges, which pre

vents it rom becoming part o the regions development ramework and its building industry practices.



CHALLENGES TO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

At the urban scale, sustainable development aces the lack o an urban development ramework in most o the regions

cities and the general lack o an encouraging regulatory environment that could stimulate a market change towards

sustainable development. It also aces the scarcity o successul regional precedents in energy and water conservation

as well as waste management. Te latter issue is even more concerning given rising energy consumption in buildings

growing water scarcity, and the increase in waste generation that accompanies rising consumption.

At the individual building scale, sustainable development aces dier

ent but equally dicult challenges. Chie among which is the re

gions hot and arid climate. While it is common knowledge that the rapid

growth o many o the regions cities was only possible with the help o

the great energy resources discovered under its sands, it is perhaps a less

known act that these cities require great energy supplies to keep themhabitable given the way they were planned and built.

Since the building orms that have shaped the cities o the Middle East in recent decades were mostly imported, they

were not environmentally responsive to the regions climatic conditions and relied on energyintensive air condition

ing to remain cool enough or human occupation. But given the extreme nature o the climate, or alternative building

orms that are less dependent on ossil uel to emerge and replace the existing ones, extreme design measures must be

taken to reduce the energy associated with cooling in new buildings while maintaining comort levels inside them.

Another challenge that aces sustainable development at the building scale is the regions construction industry. Te

general lack o enorceable energy eciency requirements or buildings together with the lack o nancial incentives

and the predominant lack o sucient sustainable design knowledge among building proessionals have all created an

industry that is reluctant to adopt sustainable construction. I the industry is to embrace the new designs and alternative

building orms described above, it must undergo a major transormation on all o these ronts.

OPPORTUNITIES AND NATURAL POTENTIALS

With the challenges above in mind, the Middle Easts urban environments also have natural potentials or sustainabledevelopment:

Te regions increasing urbanization and high population densities have a natural potential or the con

struction o the highlyeconomical neighborhoodscale energy systems;

Te regions heritage o traditional building models can also provide relevant guidance or designs that

Elgendy

Since the building orms thathave shaped the cities o the

Middle East in recent decadeswere mostly imported, theywere not environmentally

responsive to the regions cli-matic conditions



Elgendy

are more energy ecient;

Te regions abundant solar and wind resources also present a potential or renewable energy systems to

be eectively employed and integrated into the built environment.

In addition to these inherent potentials, recent interest in sustainable development by governments, nongovernmentaorganizations, and proessional bodies around the region presents urther opportunities that can be capitalized upon

As it relates to the built environment, this interest has so ar taken the orm o eorts to establish sustainable develop

ment institutions and regulations.

Te Moroccan government, or example, has recently announced the establishment o a national charter or sustainable

development and the environment, while the governments o the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Jordan have

started introducing energy eciency standards or buildings. Nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and proes

sional organizations in Jordan, Qatar, and the UAE have established green building councils in their respective coun

tries with the goal o promoting sustainable design and developing or importing green building rating systems.

Te governments o the Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also been engaged in commissioning sustainable design pilot

projects, while others are considering providing nancial incentives or energy ecient buildings and small renewable

energy systems to make them commercially viable.

Tese positive developments and the opportunities they present indicate that the tide is turning albeit slowly to

wards more sustainable development in the Middle East. But they must be capitalized on i they are to overcome the

challenges described above. Te nature o the challenges aced by the region requires a commitment to sustainabledevelopment, a willingness to change the status quo, and a collaboration between governments, NGOs, proessional

bodies, and the public. Te region has a lot to learn rom the successul experiences o other developing countries tha

embraced sustainable development, but it will ultimately have to chart its own way i it is to create a sustainable uture

or its people.



Solar Power ScaleUp in the MENA:

Resolving the Associated Water Use Challenges

Adriana M. Valencia

he Middle East and North Arica (MENA) region provides excellent conditions or the development o Concentrated Solar Power (CSP),1 notably much irradiation and unused at land2 in close proximity to road networks and

some transmission lines. Hence, a number o initiatives are underway to scaleup several donors are jointly launching a

program to scaleup CSP in the MENA to several gigawatt (GW) over the next decade.3

CSP deployment on this scale4 would bring substantial advantages to participating countries, including: leveraging

investments into CSP plants, thereby almost tripling current global investments in this technology; providing massive

investments in MENA countries; supporting MENA countries to achieve their development energy goals; and assisting

Europe to meet its greenhousegas emissions reduction commitments.

However, CSP scaleup is not exempt rom challenges, which comprise: the readiness o Europeans to purchase pro

duced power; aordability o the produced electricity or MENA countries versus the decision to instead purchase less

climateriendly natural gas; the readiness o transmission inrastructure; and the availability o clean water or CSP

requirements, along with environmental and social impacts. Tis article examines the latter.

WATER AVAILABILITy AS A CENTRAL CHALLENGE

Water use presents particular challenges in the MENA due to the regions water scarcity: the regions challenges rom

potential water scarcity are among the greatest in the world, with only 1,110 m3 o renewable water resources per person

per year in 2007, ar below the global average o 6,617 m3 p/c.5 Environmental problems resulting rom water issues cost

MENA countries between 0.52.5% o GDP every year.6 Future possible problems arising rom water scarcity include

ood security issues7 and possible conicts over water.8

Tis article represents the authors own viewpoints and not that o any institutions with which she is or has been aliated. Te authorwould like to thank Georg Caspary and Nishesh Mehta or their valuable contributions.1. One o the most promising renewable energy technologies.

2. Both major types o CSP technologies discussed in this paper require approximately 4 ha/MW or collectors and heliostats (UN Environment Programme [UNEP], 2003).3. Commitment investments or this development amount to nearly $5 billion at present.4. Note that the European industry consortium, DESEREC, intends to invest $400 billion in CSP and other renewable technologies inNorth Arica, making it perhaps the most ambitious climate change mitigation eort ever.5. WRI Earthtrends Database, Water Resources and Fresh Water Ecosystems (2007).6. World Bank, Making the Most o Water Scarcity: Accountability or Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Arica (2007)7. Hang Yang and Alexander Zehnder, Water Scarcity and Food Import: A Case Study or Southern Mediterranean Countries (2002).8. Conicts over water have occurred in other countries, with a recent example leading to the death o 15 Somalians a country whereland and access to water conicts are requent (See Dail News Egpt, March 67, 2010). Furthermore, it has been recorded that o the 37



COMPARATIVE WATER USE: CSP VERSUS TRADITIONAL ENERGy TECHNOLOGIES

Te water needs o CSP (depending on design9) are similar in volume to standard energy technologies employed in

the region (notably thermal power). Yet, one o the challenges to CSP rollout in the region is that the technologys water

requirements (mainly or cooling) are nonetheless substantial.10

Data rom CSP plants built in other parts o the world (e.g., the United States) so ar suggest that parabolic trough CSP sys

tems use ~700800 gallons o water/MWh, compared to an average o ~500 gallons/MWh or coal and nuclear plants.

However, even though conventional power plants work at higher eciencies (due to their ability to achieve higher tem

peratures and pressure), such comparisons may exaggerate their advantages in water use terms because:

the comparisons use gures rom highly ecient USbased conventional plants, versus desert located CSP

plants; and

i water use or scrubbing/ash handling in coal power plants is included in the calculations, overall their

water use is similar.

Furthermore, conventional plants have very serious nonwater environmental issues: local and global pollution (coal)

scarcity (gas); or waste storage issues (nuclear). CSP arguably has less serious nonwater environmental impacts, mostly

rom the risk o toxic uid leakage which hardly compare to the risks mentioned or coal or nuclear.

actual military water conicts since 1950, 32 took place in the Middle East (30 o which involved Israel and its Arab neighbors in conictsover the Jordan River and its tributaries, which supply millions o people with water or drinking, bathing, and arming. See NationaParting the Waters, National Geographic (April 2010), http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/04/partingthewaters/belttext/1. Seealso Joyce Starr, Water Wars, Foreign Polic, No. 82 (Spring 1991), pp. 1736.9. Te key types o CSP design considered in this report (and being used in MENA) are parabolic trough and power tower. Power towersystems are one o the three types o concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies in use today. Some power towers use water/steam asthe heattranser uid. Other advanced designs are experimenting with molten nitrate salt because o its superior heattranser and energystorage capabilities. Power towers also oer good longerterm prospects because o the high solartoelectrical conversion eciency(see US Department o Energy [USDOE] website, 2010). Parabolic troughs are a type o linear concentrator and the most commerciallyavailable technology (e.g. they have been perorming reliably at a commercial scale in the US or more than 15 years). In such a system, the

receiver tube is positioned along the ocal line o each parabolashaped reector. Te tube is xed to the mirror structure and the heateduid either a heattranser uid or water/steam ows through and out o the eld o solar mirrors to where it is used to create steam(or, or the case o a water/steam receiver, it is sent directly to the turbine) and drives a generator to produce electricity (USDOE website2010). Note that another type o CSP is dish/engine systems, which use the Stirling thermodynamic cycle to directly produce electricityand thereore are aircooled and only require water or mirror washing. Tese systems use sunlight to power a small engine at the ocalpoint and the engines typically use hydrogen as the working uid. Tese are not widely used yet and are currently designed to provideelectricity only when the sun is shining (low possibilities or thermal storage) (USDOE, 2008). Since this is a disadvantage to utility scaleproduction and when the peak load period lasts past sunset, this technology is not discussed in this paper.10. A smaller portion is or cleaning o mirrors, while a certain amount o water is also needed or steam generation, i this is the chosenmethod o heat transer.

Valencia



WATER IMPACTS FROM CSP

Te construction and operation o CSP projects lead to a variety o environmental and social impacts that need to be

identied, assessed, monitored, and mitigated. Tis environmental due diligence is sitespecic 11 and important at al

stages o the project.12 able 1, below, shows the key possible CSP impacts related to water.

ESTIMATING WATER NEEDS OF CSP IN THE MENA WITH DIFFERENT COOLING TECHNOLOGIES

Generally, decision makers must choose between wet/evaporative cooling, air cooling, or hybrid cooling technologies

or each prospective CSP project:13

Wet/evaporative cooling: ecient at moderate investment costs but high water consumption1.

(approximately 574 gal/MWh or between 23 m3

/MWh).

11. Te regional nature o this program may well necessitate a Strategic Impact Assessment or both environmental and social eects.12. Tree main stages may be dened as ollows (based on UNEP, 2003): (1) environmental regulatory ramework or the project; (2)environmental appraisal o the project; and (3) monitoring o environmental aspects during operation.13. Tere is also a cooling option in which water is drawn rom a body o water and then returned to that source. ermed oncethroughcooling, this option is not discussed here as it is now highly disregarded as an alternative due to its impacts on aquatic lie. Te losses romevaporation can also be signicant and the option requires an average o 25,000 gal/MWh or 94.6 m3/MWh (USDOE 2008).

Impacts Mitigation options

Water availability concernsUse o air cooling where use o wet cooling would result in water shortage.

Water conservation practices.

Routine/accidental release o

chemicals: e.g., antireeze or

rust inhibitors in coolant liquids.

Heat transer uids with harmul

chemicals.

Saety measures against such release through relevant components being

leakproo, regularly maintained, cleaned, and periodically replaced by ap

propriately trained sta.

Termal and/or chemical pol

lution o local water ways rom

cooling water/other waste water.

Euent treatment techniques to remove/reduce concentrations o contam

inants.

Monitoring o discharge water (e.g. eutrophication, oxygen content, tem

perature).Compliance with regulated pollutant emission levels o liquid euents (e.g.

local and/or national regulations, or international standards as deault).

Sources used to create this table include: Tsoutos et al. 2005; Biswas et al. 1992; Downing 1996; UNEP 2003, WB project documentation on eisting

CSP projects; and conversations with WB environmental safeguards sta.

able 1: Impacts rom CSP as they Possibly Relate to Water Issues and Mitigation Options

Valencia



Air/dry cooling: less ecient2. 14 and more expensive than wet cooling but less than 10% o the water

consumption compared to wet cooling (between



However, to make these calculations more accurate, it is important to know the number o hot days.19 Tis data is cur

rently unavailable (or one ull year) but is expected to become available by the end o 2011.20

MEETING CSP COOLING AND MENA WATER NEEDS: POTENTIAL DOUBLEDIVIDENDS FROM DESALINATION

Given the existing and growing water scarcity problems in the MENA, CSP scaleup should be done in a way that

contributes to solving the problems by: serving as a stable electricity source or desalination through processes such as

reverse osmosis (and thus partly meeting water needs o the region); and meeting the water needs o the CSP plants.

Since CSP plants are in essence thermal power plants, they can be used

or combined heat and power. Tus, they can be coupled with desali

nation technologies that use both heat and water such as MultiStage

Flash (MSF) and MultiEect Desalination (MED).21

An advantage o CSPpowered desalination is that a CSP plant can de

liver more stable and constant power capacity than wind or photovoltaic due to its thermal energy storage capacity (the

variability ound in wind and solar may lead to system ineciencies).

While a long implementation time rame should be expected (CSP desalination may need some 1015 years rom today

in order to reach a signicant share in the MENA water supply), CSP desalination has the highest potential to supply the

most economic (



Given the assumptions o water requirement o 2.83.4 m3/MWh and capital costs o $1,5002,000/m3/d or MSF de

salination and $9001700/m3/d or MED, the additional capital costs required or the desalination equipment come to

~$3337/kW. For the CSP scaleup plan o 1,000MW, this amounts to an additional $33 million, assuming that each

plant reaches the economies o scale required or these costs. Since desalination is a mature technology in the region

these costs can be stated with a reasonable degree o accuracy. Te additional solar eld required would be in the ordero 13%.

Initial gures researched on the level o water and electricity needed in a combined CSP and desalination scenario sug

gest that or a 1,000 MW initial conguration o the plan (assumed to run or an average o seven hours a day), the water

requirements o the combined plants would be about 19,600 m3/day. Providing all o the needed water or the operation

o such 1,000 MW CPS scaleup capacity through desalination would require 0.52.8% o the electricity output o the

CSP plants, depending on the kind o technology utilized.

CONCLUSIONS

CSP scaleup may lead to a number o specic social and environmental issues, though ew o these CSPspecic is

sues have so ar arisen in actual CSP projects. For the most part, CSP projects are likely to give rise to the standard

saeguards issues o an inrastructure project o the relevant size; however, special care needs to be taken to avoid re

placement o agricultural water use or contamination o water bodies.

CSP scaleup throughout the MENA region may require vast amounts

o water depending on the selected cooling option. While water availability or CSP is, at the moment, only a side issue in CSP development

in the MENA (as CSP is still a technology with a limited geographical

scale), a largescale rollout o the technology (e.g., as proposed under

the DESEREC initiative) would imply taking a close look at water availability/scarcity and should bring the issue to

the oreront o CSP planning.

Tis article described that the water savings to be had rom hybrid cooling systems and air cooling systems vis--vis wet

cooling are considerable. Tis is o special importance, given the water scarcity in the MENA region. Additional water

savings generated by air cooling over hybrid cooling (at least at the upper end o the estimates range) generally out

weigh the rather marginal additional perormance and cost penalty associated with air and hybrid cooling. Nonetheless

the decision on the cooling technology ought to be made in each instance taking into account local conditions.22

22. E.g., water availability/cost, hourly ambient temperature, electricity costs, topography, population density, as well as the quality owater output needed.

Valencia

Combining CSP electricity

generation with desalinationtechnology can circumvent theproblem o water availability



Te article also discussed the possible impact on perormance during hot days (air temperatures above 37.7C de

grees), and based on outside studies, indicated that as long as these hot days do not coincide with high plant output/

peak demand and high revenues, the perormance and costs impact may not be signicant. However, to be able to

perorm a true assessment o the possible perormance penalties associated with high temperatures, more data is re

quired on hourly temperatures throughout the year and more inormation is also needed on the expected loads in thecountries under consideration.

Combining CSP electricity generation with desalination technology can circumvent the problem o water availability

since the desalination plant can strike a symbiotic relationship where it supplies the requisite cooling water to the CSP

plants in return or electricity/heat needed to puriy water or various purposes. Tis is o particular signicance or the

MENA, where desalination is already a mature technology and CSP has a very high power generation potential.

Valencia



Impacts o Water Scarcity on the Social Welare o Citizens in the Middle East

Muawya Ahmed Hussein

Over the past century, the Middle East and North Arica (MENA) has undergone huge changes. According to 2007

estimates, its population has risen rom less than 50 million a century ago to over 331 million, and is expected to reach

some 385 million people by 2015. During this same period, the environment has deteriorated and natural resources

have dwindled due to development patterns which were largely unsustainable. In most cases, policies were overwhelm

ingly sets o provisional shortterm measures, meant to tackle momentary challenges rather than engage in longterm

planning. Some parts o the region have seen unprecedented growth, bringing both economic and social prosperity to

millions o Arabs, thanks largely to income rom oil. Has this economic development, however, come at a cost? Can the

patterns o development which some Arab countries are experiencing continue while sustaining livelihood and quality

o lie or uture generations?

Te Middle Easts physical environment stands at a pivotal juncture, threatened by numerous current and imminent

problems. At the same time, awareness o the issues, as well as signs o political and social willingness to act, provide

hope or timely intervention.

Te growth o cities and towns poses particular challenges. Accelerating urbanization is straining alreadyoverstretched

inrastructure and creating overcrowded, unhealthy, and insecure living conditions in many cities. In 1970, 38% o the

Arab population was urban. By 2005, this gure had grown to 55%, and is likely to surpass 60% by 2020.1

Te two major environmental threats in the region are those related to water scarcity and desertication and land

degradation. Although the MENA has 5% o the worlds population, it has less than 1% o the worlds available

water supply. Meanwhile, the rate o water consumption is straining this supply. Per capita water use in the United

Arab Emirates (UAE), or example, is about our times that o Europe; consumption in Abu Dhabi is 550 liters o

water per person per day, two to three times the world average o 180200 liters.

WATER SCARCITy

Te issue o water scarcity is the most serious threat to Arab security, as virtually all Arab countries are well below theline o water poverty. Te World Bank has classied 22 countries as below the water poverty line (when per capita

water availability cubic meters/year is below 1,000). Fieen are Arab countries, and nine o them in the Middle East

(see able 1). Per capita water cubic meters/year in Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain is 91, 95, and 112, respectively. In the

1. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP),Arab Human Development Report 2009, Challenges to Human Security in theArab Countries.



cases o Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, unisia, and Oman the gures are 241, 318, 340, 434, and 874, respectively. 2 I this

is the case today, one can imagine the water shortages that the region will have to conront in ten years. An increasing

populations demand or water would reduce per capita share to 460 cubic meters by 2025, lower than the extreme water

poverty level according to international classications.

Due to poor agricultural technologies, agriculture remains the major user o water sources in most o the regions coun

tries. Tere is a low level o eciency in the utilization o water in all sectors that use water, typically between 37% and

53%. Tis has generated a range o problems such as water logging salinity, low productivity, inertility o soil, and the

deterioration o the quality o ground water.

Water governance remains ragmented among various institutions, which generates problems o the rationalization o

water use. Te problem is urther aggravated by the high rate o population increase, the geographical location o theregions countries in the Great Desert belt, and the lack o national programs to rationalize water consumption. In ad

dition, a high percentage o the water resources upon which the countries o the MENA depend originate outside the

region, giving rise to tensions in using jointlyshared water. Tis is acutely clear in the cases o the Nile, the Euphrates,

and the igris rivers.

Poor distribution and heavy demand, especially o ground resources, characterize water use in the Arab countries. Ti

leads to a lack o clean water or much o the population and the waste o signicant amounts in the agriculture, in

dustry, and tourism sectors. A report rom the UN Economic and Social Commission or Western Asia (UNESCWA)

applies the question o water stress to the national level in the Arab states (UNESCWA member countries are Bahrain

Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, the Occupied Palestinian erritories (OP), Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria

UAE, and Yemen). Te report distinguishes between our levels o water stress as gauged by the ratio o population to

2. UN Development Programme (UNDP), Arab Human Development Report 2002, Creating Opportunities or Future Generations,http://www.arabhdr.org/publications/other/ahdr/ahdr2002e.pd.3. United Nations Economic and Social Commission or Western Asia (UNESCWA), Water Development Report 2, State of Water Re-sources in the ESCWA Region (December 4, 2007), http://www.escwa.un.org/inormation/publications/edit/upload/sdpd076e.pd.

Hussein

Figure 1: Water-Scarce Countries in the Middle East and North Arica

Note: Water-scarce countries (shaded above) are those with less then 1,000 cubic meters of renewable fresh water per person per ear.



renewable reshwater slight, signicant, serious, and critical. As shown in able 1, the study reveals that our countries

are acing slight water stress, two are acing signicant water stress, ve are acing serious water stress, and two

Kuwait and the UAE are acing critical water stress.

A particularly striking example o the conict that exists between rapid economic development and scarce water re

sources is the recent boom in the construction o gol courses in certain parts o the region. In act, most o the curren

and planned gol courses are in Egypt and the Gul region, particularly the UAE, where water resources are already low

even by regional standards.

Expansion o waterintensive projects like grass gol courses cannot go on unchecked, especially with meager investments

to develop sustainable desalination technologies. Tere are plans to increase the 16 gol courses operating in the Coopera

tion Council or the Arab States o the Gul (CCASG) to 40 in the near uture. In most cases, gol courses in the region are

irrigated with desalinated sea water, treated euent, or a combination o the two. A 2007 report released by the interna

tional consultants Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler (KPMG) estimated the use o water or each gol course in the region

at an average o 1.16 million cubic meters per year, reaching 1.3 million cubic meters in Dubai, enough to cover the water

consumption o 15,000 inhabitants. Currently, the quality o water resources in the region is aected by pollution, urban

ization, oods, and overuse o water resources. So, resh water is another problem in the region. (See able 2).

In the Northern part o the Jordan Valley, AbuTallam has estimated the impact o water shortage on the planted area

income, and labor at the regional level. It has been ound that reducing the quantity o irrigation water has lowered

cropping intensity and thus the area in cultivation has contracted. Tis, in turn, has resulted in a reduction in total net

income, and consequently a reduction in labor used in the area.

Hussein

Slight water stress

(less than 2,500

persons per million

cubic meters)

Signicant water

stress

(Between 2,500 and

5,000 persons per

million cubic meters)

Serious water stress

(Between 5,000 and

10,000 persons per

million cubic me-

ters)

Critical water stress

(More than 10,000

persons per million

cubic meters)

Egypt Jordan Bahrain Kuwait

Lebanon Saudi Arabia Iraq United Arab Emirates

Oman

Occupied Palestinian

erritories

Syria Qatar

Yemen

able 1: Levels o Water Stress in Tirteen Arab Countries, 2006

Source: UNESCWA, 2007.



For instance, decreasing water supply by 20% will be ollowed by a reduction in the total cultivated area by about 14%

Tis will lead to a decrease in the total net income generated by 15%. Te reduction in employment will also be accom

panied by a direct and indirect loss in income too.4

4. K. AbuTallam, Assessment o Drought Impact on Agricultural Resources in Northern Jordan Valley, M.Sc. Tesis. Te University oJordan. Amman, Jordan (2003).

Hussein

Per Capita Annual Renewable Fresh Water (m2) % o Freshwater Use, by Sector

1970 2001 2025 Domestic Industrial

MENA 3,645 1,640 1,113 8 5

Algeria 1,040 462 331 25 15

Bahrain 455 140 97 39 4

Egypt 2,460 1,243 903 6 8

Iran 4,770 2,079 1,555 6 2Iraq 10,304 4,087 2,392 3 5

Israel 740 342 247 16 5

Jordan 555 174 103 22 3

Kuwait 27 9 5 37 2

Lebanon 1,944 1,120 896 28 4

Libya 302 114 72 11 2

Morocco 1,960 1,027 741 5 3

Oman 416 206 5 2 94

Qatar 901 170 129 23 3

Saudi Arabia 418 114 59 9 1

Syria 7,367 2,700 1,701 4 2

unisia 800 422 327 9 3

urkey 5,682 3,029 2,356 16 11

United Arab

Emirates897 60 44 24 9

Yemen 648 228 103 7 1

able 2: Per Capita Annual Renewable Fresh Water

Source: Peter Gleick, e Worlds Water 20002001, e Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources.



Hussein

CONCLUSION

Te challenge o addressing water scarcity in the Middle East is aggravated by the regions ongoing population pres

sures. Utilizing new sources o water to meet the increased demand or resh water would relieve some o the regions

shortages, but as new sources o water become more expensive, they become less accessible to lowincome countriesgiven those nations limited nancial and technical opportunities. Regional cooperation and political, legal, and insti

tutional support are critical or enabling countries to address their reshwater shortages. Sound government policies

regarding water allocation, distribution, and use can help countries to adopt better strategies to manage their scarce

reshwater resources.



Living with Soil Salinity: Is It Possible?

Mushtaque Ahmed and Salim A. Al-Rawah

Soil and groundwater salinity has emerged as the most signicant agricultural problem acing the Sultanate o Oman

Scant rainall, coupled with high temperature, is always conducive to the accumulation o salts in soils. Tese condition

are predominant in Oman. Secondary soil salinity has increased at a very rapid rate due to the persistent use o saline

groundwater, which, over time, has become more concentrated due to increased pumping by armers in the Batinah

region - the countrys most important agricultural area.

Te balance between total pumping and annual recharge that had existed prior to the 1990s has been greatly disturbed

resulting initially in reduction o crop yields and gradually in the abandonment o lands. Saline seawater intrusions

are also present in some areas o the region that are nearer to the sea as the result o overpumping. Saltaected lands

constitute about 44% o Omans total geographical area and 70% o the agriculturally suitable area o the country. Teannual losses due to salinity have been reported as 7.31 to 13.97 million Omani Rials (2005 data, 1 Omani Rial = 2.58

USD). When saltaected lands go out o cultivation, their owners become unemployed - engendering a host o so

cioeconomic problems. Clearly, thereore, soil salinity poses a huge threat to the sustainability o agriculture in Oman,

especially in Batinah.

Te research project Management o Salt Aected Soils and Water or Sustainable Agriculture, prepared and approved by

Sultan Qaboos University, was undertaken to explore ways to mitigate soil and water salinity. Te project ocused on our

approaches: soil rehabilitation, biosaline agriculture, odder production, and the integration o the sh culture into crop

production that could have compensatory economic returns to armers. Te project aimed at developing management

guidelines which are scientically sound or armers a) to sustain economically viable agricultural production in salta

ected areas with saline groundwater, b) improve ood security o Oman, and c) combat desertication. Te idea was not to

try to remove all salts rom soil and groundwater but to learn to live with the prevailing conditions by providing sucien

income to the armers in the aected areas through various means. Te project was conducted with the active participation

o Omani government scientists, armers, and international experts. Te tasks accomplished during the project include:

Assessing the intensity and extent o salinity in the Batinah region using remotely sensed satellite im

ages, groundtruthing, and preparation o temporal and spatial variation maps o salinity o soil andwater rom GIS.

Determining agronomic solutions (mulching, tillage, sowing methods, etc.) and nutritional aspects in

cluding microbial nitrogen mineralization in saline conditions.

Determining engineering and water management solutions (irrigation, subirrigation, leaching, lev

eling, etc.) to reduce water loss and salinization.



Determining biological solutions by identiying salttolerant crops and ruit trees or various saltaect

ed regions o Oman. Tis includes introduction o halophytes.

Assessing the eects o eeding salttolerant orage crops to Omani sheep.

Integrating sh culture in marginal lands.

Determining socioeconomic costs and benets o salinity management practices in the Batinah region.

Findings rom the project conrmed that:

Salttolerant varieties o tomatoes, barley, sorghum, and pearl millet can be grown successully in saline

soils o the Batinah coast. It was possible to grow such crops with saline irrigation o 69 dS/m water (1

dS/m water is equivalent to 640 ppm o salts). omato (Ginan variety) was best grown with irrigation

water o 6 dS/m and by adding mixed ertilizer (organic and mineral in 1:1 combination).

Mulching surace soil with a thin layer o shredded date palm residues resulted in lesser salt accumula

tion in the soil resulting in more crop yield than other methods.

Fodder (sorghum) grown in saline soils with saline water has no negative eects on growth or meat

quality o goats.

Incorporation o aquaculture (using red hybrid tilapia Oreochromis sp.) in saline areas was proven ea

sible and could partially compensate or salinity induced crop losses. Nutrients in water that come out

o sh ponds enhanced crop growth.

Tomatoes grown under saline irrigation

Ahmed and Al-Rawah



Te project has shown that under careul management, it is possible or armers to make a living rom saltaected

lands by adopting various techniques such as appropriate use o salttolerant crops, ertilizers, and mulches; and by

diversiying into nontraditional areas o income generation such as aquaculture. Tis lowcost system or treatment o

greywater and low quality surace water, i adopted on a large scale, will contribute to the overall environmental sustain

ability by lessening demands on reshwater resources in many countries o the world.

Ahmed and Al-Rawah

Sorghum grown under saline irrigation

Aquaculture using saline water



Innovating Ways to Face the Eects o Environmental Degradation

Mahi Tabet-Aoul

Te environmental degradation process in the Maghreb is mainly o natural origin, but has been accelerated by human

activities. Te most dangerousthreats caused by environmental degradation are soil degradation and deserticationpollution, droughts, oods, and water scarcity.

Action is urgently needed to return lands to their original vocation, to implement largescale reorestation, to reha

bilitate the steppe and oasis, and to ensure the stability o rural communities. But what kind o action, and action by

whom?

Addressing the causes and consequences o environmental degradation requires a new model o governance one that

is democratic and decentralized. More specically, it requires the involvement o local communities in development

projects rom conception, through implementation, and aer completion. Enlisting this involvement and unleash

ing its potential in turn requires imagination, bold experimentation, and the application o new tools and technologies

As this essay demonstrates, some o these initiatives are already underway, providing encouraging evidence that many

others may lie within our reach.

INQUIRIES ON THE ExPOSURE OF VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES TO ENVIRONMENTAL RISK

Conducting surveys on the perception o the eects o environmental degradation can be an eective way to raise the

awareness o local policymakers, institutions, and communities to act against the sources o degradation. As a casestudy, we conducted an investigation1 regarding the environmental risk perception by the community living around the

industrial zone o Arzew in Algeria, which contains ten petrochemical complexes.

Tis industrial zone is located near a large urban area. It is devoid o an environmental monitoring system. Te adverse

eects on the health o nearby residents, and especially on the most vulnerable population, are patently obvious.

o assess the perception o environmental risk on the population, a survey was undertaken in 2006. Tis investigation

had two objectives: to understand peoples grievances and to raise awareness o industrial and institutional actors about

the environment.

Te survey covered 1,000 households randomly distributed over six municipalities, including the industrial area and

its surroundings. It ocused on our topics: economic data, environmental knowledge and risk perception, health status

1. Revue des Cahier du Centre de recherche en Anthropologie Sociale et Culture (CRASC), SENS Socit Environnement et Socit, December 2009.



and actors role. Tis investigation allowed the gathering o a lot o inormation. It appears that the population lives

in relatively good conditions. With regard to the environment, 58% o the respondents attributed the occurrence odiseases to air pollution, 24% to solid wastes, and 14% water quality. In terms o health, 44% o households reported

that at least one person is sick. 60% o diseases are respiratory deaths, including 83% related to air pollution. Regarding

the issue o who is responsible or pollution, 37% o those surveyed blamed the decisionmakers and 30% blamed the

citizens.

Tese results show the high degree o awareness on environmental issues at the population level. Tis survey shows also that

the Arzew population is cognizant o the dangers o air pollution and its impact on their health. Consequently, their involve

ment is crucial. Te survey highlights the necessity or mutual listening and shared responsibility among all stakeholders

SHARING AVAILABLE INFORMATION ON THE ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL

oday, everyone agrees that whereas environmental degradation is occurring on a global scale, the responses to it must

take place on a local scale. Te question is how to deal locally with degradation? Te goal is to involve all local actors

concerned with development policy makers, businesses, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and community

representatives to set up local charters or sustainable development. Tis implies the participation o all to reach a

consensus on the choice o a development model based on local natural resources and human potential.

Te rst step to initiate this process is to raise awareness and to gather research, studies, and inormation already avail

able locally. Tis requires the establishment o centers or collecting and disseminating inormation. New media and

communication can serve as eective carriers or this action. Setting up platorms2 on the internet can boost inorma

tion exchange on climate, environment, and sustainable development in the Maghreb region. Tese sites are oen initi

2. See, or example, the authors website: http://maghrebclimenv.jimdo.com.

Aoul

An El

BiyaHassiMefsoukh

Mers El

Hadjadj

Sidi Ben

Yabka

Arzew

Bethioua

Zone

Industrielle

Wilaya dOran

Mditerrane

Figure: Area Covered in the Survey



ated by volunteer leaders who are ghting against environmental degradation. Te sites allow researchers, students, and

the general public to nd reports on environment and development or the region that were carried out either by loca

researchers or institutions, or by researchers and experts involved in projects nanced by international partners. Tese

sites serve as a bridge between dierent actors, and are asked to provide inormation, expertise, and advice and run

workshops and conerences on the environment at the request o institutions, universities, and associations. Troughthese sites, actors learn to exchange their views in developing a consensus culture. Te sites also help build local insti

tutional capacity.

IMPLEMENTING VOLUNTARy ACTIONS ON ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION

Te Synthetic Course on the Environment and Sustainable Development is a training program or experienced stas

o institutions, companies, universities, and associations. Tis initiative, begun in 2004 and based on two books3 by the

author, was taken outside any institutional, partisan, or associative tutorship.

Te basic idea is to provide concise and practical instruction on environment through study days. Each study day lasts

or ve hours and gathers groups o about 20 people. As o December 2010, 16 such groups, totaling more than 400

persons, have been trained. Te total production is o nearly 2,400 man days, covering the ull cycle at the rate o one

day every three weeks.

Te mission o this project is to invest in younger generations in particular to provide them with the conceptual and

practical tools that will help them to improve their environment and thereby protect their health and well being. Te

success o the project in ullling this mission is attributable to the solidarity, availability, and assistance o many willing partners who have sometimes engaged their own sta and have graciously provided all the logistics necessary to

convene the study days.

However, many things remain to be done or the eective implementation o the lessons learned through use o ac

quired tools and environmental management. At the end o the training, participants are asked to think about a number

o elds to be explored, such as: strengthening links to orm an active relationship through the establishment o an ex

change network via the internet; initiation o specic community projects to protect and rehabilitate the environment

types o contributions that can bring everyone to his/her own environment; a denition o a practical and common pro

cess or short, medium, and longterms; and need to build consensus around the learned concepts and techniques.

Each trained participant is called upon to share and disseminate his/her own experience as a new trainer or to develop an

3. Mahi abet Aoul, Environnement et dveloppement durable au Maghreb: Contraintes et enjeu [Environment and Sustainable Development: Constraints and Opportunities] (Quebec : Centre des Hautes Etudes Internationales (HEI), Laval University, 2010) ; and Sant Environnement Socit, [Health Environment Society] Cahiers du Centre de Recherche en Anthropologie Sociale et Culturelle(CRASC) (December 2009).

Aoul



environmental initiative to ensure sustainability and amplication o this training action by implementing local projects

CONCLUSION

Te initiatives described above have sought to raise awareness, inorm, train, and develop projects to address the environmental degradation. Each o these initiatives has elicited positive eedback. ogether, they have enlarged the circle

o participants who are actively engaged in combating environmental degradation. Tey are illustrative not only o the

innovative work that is needed to arrest environmental degradation, but o its potential.

At one time or another, everyone eels concerned about environmental degradation. However, we must go beyond

sterile criticism and, instead, assume personal responsibility or working to combat it. Te solution to addressing envi

ronmental degradation lies within each o us.

Aoul



Improvement o Air Quality in Egypt: Te Role o Natural Gas

Ibrahim Abdel Gelil

Egypt has had more than our decades o intensive natural gas exploration and development activities, which have

become the main ocus o the countrys hydrocarbon industry. Current natural gas reserves estimated at around 78 tril

lion cubic eet have developed to be ar more abundant than those o oil and are continuing to increase steadily.1 Since

the early 1980s, the Government o Egypt recognized that utilizing Egypts abundant natural gas could, in addition to

ostering economic growth, make a signicant contribution toward improving air quality and protecting public health

Given its unique economic and environmental advantages, Egypts energy policy was developed to maximize switching

to natural gas in various economic sectors. Strategies to achieve this policy included developing natural gas inrastruc

ture, whereby the national gas pipeline grid has expanded rom 1,000 to more than 17,000 km. Expanding the local gas

market and developing domestic gas demand have been other strategies that proved to be eective. As a result, the share

o natural gas in Egypts primary energy consumption has grown rom about 24% in 1990 to nearly 45%.2 Te number

o domestic gas consumers reached about 3.3 million and planned to grow to 5.5 million by 2015. Consuming about

60% o the total gas consumption, the electricity sector is the largest gas consumer, which plans to depend 100% on

natural gas in the years to come.

In addition to switching to natural gas in the electricity generation, industry, and residential sectors, the Egyptian

Government encouraged the private sector to commercialize natural gas vehicles (NGVs). In December 1994, the rs

company to convert gasoline vehicles to natural gas was ormed. Currently, there are 6 operating compressed natural gas

(CNG) companies, 119 CNG uelling stations, and about 110,000 CNG vehicles in use, 75% o which are taxis, mainly

in Cairo. A primary key to the NGV industrys success in Egypt is a package o nancial incentives oered by the Gov

ernment including 5year tax holidays or CNG companies, lowcost conversion charges or car owners, and attractive

price dierential between CNG and gasoline. At about $0.08 per cubic meter o CNG (equivalent in energy content to

a litre o gasoline), it is less than a quarter o the local gasoline price o 1.75 Egyptian Pound (LE) per liter ($0.30). In

addition, a typical vehicle conversion kit costs about $900. Owners o high uel use vehicles, such as taxis, can recover

their cost o vehicle conversion in as little as six months rom uel savings alone. Tis clearly explains why taxis have

been the most converted eet.

Another exciting development or Egypts CNG growth was the Joint Egypt/USsponsored $63 million Cairo Air Im

provement Project (CAIP). Tis initiative had ocused on improving Cairos air quality through reducing harmul emis

sions rom lead smelters and rom vehicles exhausts. Part o this program included providing 50 dedicated CNG public

transit buses to the Cairo public transport eet. Te bus bodies were locally manuactured, but the CNG engines and

1. Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company (EGAS), 2010, http://www.egas.com.eg/Egyptian_Natural_Gas/Introduction.aspx.2. Egyptian Environmental Aairs Agency (EEAA), Egypts second national communication under the UNFCCC, 2010.



Gelil

the rolling chasse were manuactured in the United States. Key challenges or the government have been replicating

that initiative by unding the conversion o the some 5,000 public buses operating in Cairo and changing the price di

erential between CNG and diesel uel, which is heavily subsidized. So ar, the government has managed to increase the

number o CNG buses to nearly 200. In parallel, another program is being implemented to convert governmentowned

vehicles to CNG. o date, more than 2,300 vehicles have been converted.3

Furthermore, the government is currently implementing an initiative aimed to swap a eet o nearly 40,000 old pollut

ing taxis with modern CNGuelled vehicles. Te initiative started in Metropolitan Cairo, hosting 25% o Egypts popu

lation and about 60% o registered vehicles, and will be expanded to other governorates aerwards. Again, economic

incentives are playing the major role behind the success o this initiative. In addition to concessional loans, new locally

assembled CNG vehicles are exempt rom about 55% o customs and consumption taxes. In return, participating taxi

owners have to scrap their old vehicles. Te project will have signicant impacts on the air quality o Cairo, a megacity

suering rom a high level o air pollution. Egypt is now being recognized as having one o the top ten most successu

CNG commercialization programs worldwide.

Tis policy o switching to natural gas has signicantly impacted the improve

ment o air quality, especially in Cairo. Addressing the problem o air quality has

been the ocus o environmental policy in Egypt or many years. Te national

air quality management program includes a broad array o policies and meas

ures to curb emissions o pollutants rom both stationary and mobile sources.

Pollution sources in Cairo include industrial activities, power stations, and vehicles emissions. Industry is a majorsource o pollution in Cairo. Tere are about 36,000 industrial establishments scattered in the area; heavypolluting in

dustries such as cement, steel, and chemical exist north and south o the urban center.Te total number o cars in Egypt

increased rom 2.1 million in 1992 to 4.3 million in 2008.4 Te number o current registered passenger cars in Cairo is

nearly one million, 25% o which are 20yearsold or more.5 Additionally, power stations are also a major source o air

emissions as Cairo is home to seven thermal power stations having a total capacity equal to 4600 megawatts.6

Moreover, the climate in Cairo is always sunny and dry. Rain is rare (about 22 mm annually) and wind speed averages

about ve meters per second. Tese climate conditions enable air pollutants to accumulate and suspend in the air, lead

ing to the smog phenomenon. When warm air stays near the ground instead o rising, a natural phenomenon known as

thermal inversion, and when winds are calm, smog orms and may stay in place or days, leading to high concentrations

o toxic gases that pose public health risks. Te locallynamed Black Cloud, a dense layer o smoke and og over Cairo

3. EEAA, State of the Environment Report, 2009.4. EEAA, State of the Environment Report, 2008.5. Te Egyptian Cabinet Inormation and Decision Support Center, Cars in Egypt, 2007.6. Egypt Container Holding Company (ECHC), Annual Report, 2007.

Te total number o carsin Egypt increased rom

2.1 million in 1992 to 4.3million in 2008.



that occurs annually between October and November appeared or the rst time in 1999, when it sparked widespread

panic and heated debate. In addition to the sources o pollution discussed above, rice straw burning in the Delta and

burning solid waste in Cairo were also named as causes o that pollution episode. According to a World Bank study, the

annual cost o environmental degradation in Egypt was estimated to be 14.6 billion LE per year. It accounts or 4.5% o

GDP and air pollution costs represent 44% o the total costs.7

Air quality in Egypt has been partially monitored since the early 1970s. An air quality monitoring network has been

continuously updated with support rom the Danish Government to reach a total o 87 stations covering dierent geo

graphic locations. ypically, particulates (PM10

) and lead are the most critical air quality problems, especially in Cairo

Ambient lead concentration used to be ar beyond the World Health Organization (WHO) standards mainly due to

inormal secondary lead smelters scattered within the residential areas. Phasing out leaded gasoline, relocation o lead

smelters, and switching to natural gas have largely contributed to reduction o lead pollution.

A recent state o the environment report o Egypt recorded a gradual improvement o air quality. Te report indicated a

steady improvement in concentrations o sulur dioxide, lead and carbon monoxide over the period 20042008. On the

other hand, the chronic problem o pollution by particulates is still unsolved. It should be noted that the overall average

concentrations o nitrogen oxides during the last ve years had exceeded the limit. Tis might be a side eect o exces

sive use o natural gas; an issue that remains to be tackled by environmental experts. It is worth noting that the natura

gas switching policy in Egypt, although achieving several economic, social, and environmental objectives, is also con

sidered a cornerstone in mitigating greenhouse emissions. Switching to low carbon uels such as natural gas is eligible

or credit under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) o the Kyoto Protocol. It is estimated that about onethird

o the projected carbon credits earned by Egypt within the CDM would come rom natural gas projects.

7. Te World Bank, Cost of Environmental Degradation, 2002.

Gelil



Te Politics o Water Scarcity in Egypt

Brian Chatterton

We are entering the era o water scarcity throughout the world. Water scarcity is dierent rom mined resources

that become scarce when the lode runs out. Water is almost always renewable. Te scarcity applies to expansion. For

thousands o years, supply has been expanded through engineering. Nowhere is that more obvious than in Egypt, where

water demand has been met by increasing supply. Expansion accelerated during the 19th and 20th centuries, but has now

ground to a halt as there is no more water to collect, store, and distribute.

Te hydraulic mission conducted by engineers is over. Te resource is now closed and must be allocated among armers

industry, and domestic users while enough remains in order to maintain the environment.

SCARCITy IN EGyPT

Te age o scarcity requires political and cultural change. Policymakers have been trained and have lived their lives dur

ing an age o plenty - not just or water but or all resources. Adjusting to a closed resource is dicult or politicians

administrators, and society as a whole.

In Egypt there is an acceptance o closure within the senior levels o the Ministry o Irrigation and other Ministries

connected to water but not within the public political discourse.

Te National Water Resource Plan 20171 prepared or the Ministry o Irrigation spells out the details o closure. Te

available Nile water remains stable at 55.5 billion cubic meters and while there are small increases rom ossil ground

water sources and recycling the plan goes on to predict a substantial all in the water available per irrigated hectare

Using a rather simple ormula o water = crop = income, it predicts a 20% reduction in armers income as a result o

water scarcity by the year 2017. Farmers are already one o the poorest sectors o Egyptian society; such a all in income

will have serious political consequences.

ALLOCATION

Te Egyptian water resource is closed or nearly closed to urther expansion. Population and land under irrigation are

increasing. Water will have to be rationed not just between agriculture and other uses but within agriculture itsel.

1. Water or the Future: National Water Resource Plan 2017, National Water Resources Plan, Ministry o Water Resources and IrrigationArab Republic o Egypt, Cairo (2005).



A WATER MARKET

Te World Bank and other water economists are advocating a water market as a solution to the thorny problem o allo

cating a closed resource.2 In Australia, the Murray Darling basin has been converted into a water market. Te Australian

water market has been operating or over a decade.3 During rst decade o the 21st century, the catchment has suered

rom the worst drought recorded and provides a working example o a water market as a means o allocating a scarce

resource.

P R

Like all markets, that or water is based solidly on property rights. In Australia, most o the water is metered already. In

Egypt, that is not the case. During the Australian drought, when water scarcity was acute, the meters proved to be inad

equate. Farmers could, and did, tamper with them. Australia is now investing heavily in more sophisticated meters. For

Egypt, the cost o metering water to many millions o small armers would be extremely high.

R S

Reduced salinity was put orward as a benet rom the market in Australia. Te reasoning was that water could be tradedout o and into areas with low salinity but only out o areas with high salinity. Te natural turnover o the market would

gradually move water away rom these saline areas. Salinity is a much greater problem in Australia than in Egypt.

2. Making the Most o Scarcity. Accountability or Better Water Management Results in the Middle East and North Arica, Te WorldBank (2007).3. Brian and Lynne Chatterton, Te Australian Water Market Experiment, Water International, Vol. 26, No. 1 (March 2001), pp. 6268.

Chatterton

Unit 1997 Base 2017 (a)

Population Millions 59.3 83.1

Water resource - Nile Billions o cubic meters 55.5 55.5

Fossil ground water (non-renewable) Billions o cubic meters 0.71 3.96

Water /head including ossil water Cubic meters 936 710

Sel sufciency in cereals Percentage 73.00% 46.00%

Area irrigated Millions hectares 3.35 4.57

Water available per hectare Cu m./hectare/year 10700 9204

Average income o armers $US /year 923 742

Efciency (consumptive use/abstraction) percentage 67.00% 61.00%

able 1: Adapted rom able 5 in the Water or the Future: National Water Resources

Plan 2017 (NWRP 2005)

2017 (a) Based on water development plans but ecluding 105,000 of epansion in the Sinai, which is made dependent on more water reaching Egp

through the construction of the Jonglai canal.



I E U

Saleable water rights encourage armers to use water eciently through improved irrigation techniques. Tis process

o improvement was taking place in Australia beore the water market and in Egypt armers already have a high leve

o eciency (See table above). Te water market gives an added incentive to eciency improvements as surplus watercan be sold.

Without a water market, this surplus water is an onarm reserve but when it is sold to another armer it is used to ex

pand the area under cultivation. When the Australian drought came, everyone suered, as allocations had to be reduced

well below the amount shown on the title certicate. Te onarm reserves had been sold.

H V C

Another claimed advantage o the water market is that it

makes the value o water obvious to the armer and that they

will then shi production rom lowvalue crops to highval

ue crops. Te World Bank has already suggested that Egypt

produce more highvalue crops or export and import cheap

cereal grains.4

Apparently, there are large gains to be made rom highvalue crops. In Australia, only 20% o the water produces more

than 80% o the value o production. It seems obvious that shiing water to higher value crops would improve armersincomes.

Tis is a rather watercentric view o arming. High returns to water do not necessarily represent high returns to capital

labor, or other actors o production. Australia is also in the lucky position o not having to consider ood security rom

its irrigated land, as it has a large export surplus o basic ood rom its dryland arming areas. Egypt has to balance the

risks o lowvalue grain or home consumption against the risks o highvalue resh ruit or export.

While highvalue crops are much loved by theoretical economists, armers tend to be more cynical, as they have seen

many highvalue crops converted into lowvalue crops through increased production.

Whatever the theoretical arguments, the acute water scarcity during the Australian drought demonstrated the ailure

o concept in practice. Te highvalue crops were not saved. While the executives o the basin authority5 claim a great

4. Agriculture or Development,World Development Report 2008, Te World Bank (2008).5. Wendy Craik, Irrigated Agriculture - Managing with Less, paper to ABARE Outlook 2008, March 4, 2008.

Chatterton

It seems obvious that shiing waterto higher value crops would improve

armers incomes [but] ... High returnsto water do not necessarily represent

high returns to capital, labor, or otheractors o production.



success or the water market as more water was traded during the drought and the price increased three times, large

areas o high value vines and ruit trees were destroyed. Price alone could not drag enough water out rom other low

value uses, and the armers ability to pay or the highpriced water rights was not solely based on a water price/outpu

ormula. Experience rom other droughts shows that armers survival was mainly related to equity. Farmers with high

equity survive. Tose with high debts do not. Ecient arming rated very low as an indicator o survival.

Te executive o the basin authority did not intervene in the water market to allocate water directly to highvalue crops

but politicians in Egypt may not be so willing to give up their power to the market mechanism.

C N G

Giving water a monetary value is seen as a great benet by economic

theorists, but again the reality as demonstrated by the Australian ex

ample is dierent. New armers have to purchase water rights in order

to irrigate their land. Tis is a real capital cost. Te cost does not arise

immediately, as existing armers are given their water rights ree. How

ever, over the years they retire, and new entrants are burdened with this

added cost. In Egypt, with the projected all in income or armers by 2017, added costs or water rights would make

their position even worse.

Tere is also the question o airness. Te water o the Nile has been used by armers or thousands o years. Te intro

duction o water rights would, in eect, give that water to a single generation o armers who are lucky enough to bewater users at the time. Tey can leave with that bonanza in cash while uture generations have to nd and service the

additional capital needed to pay the rst generation their bonanza. Te second and urther generations can pass the

capital cost on when they leave arming, but their prots will be insignicant compared to the lucky rst.

E N C T

Te Australian drought demonstrated clearly that the water had been overallocated to armers. Te amount o water

delivered was at times as little as 5% o the amount shown on the title. Te environment suered even more severely, as

there was no surplus rom irrigation or environmental needs. Te Murray River stopped owing into the sea. Te lakes

at the river mouth shrunk due to a lack o recharge, as did many lakes along the course o the river. Te basin authority

has now advised the Australian government to reduce the amount diverted to arming by about 25%. Tis would pro

vide more water or the environment and greater stability or armers.

Buying back such a large amount o water rom the market will cost the Australian taxpayer billions o dollars. Australia

Chatterton

In Egypt, with the projectedall in income or armers by

2017, added costs or waterrights would make their posi-

tion even worse.



Chatterton

can aord to do so as it has a large and prosperous economy outside irrigated agriculture. Te national debt is only 9% o

GDP. In Egypt, agriculture is relatively more important, and there is virtually none outside the irrigated sector.

THE POLITICAL SOLUTION DEMOCRATIC DEVOLUTION TO LOCAL GROUPS

Te water market provides a neat theoretical model or the allocation o scarce water resources, but the Australian

example shows clearly that many o the theoretical benets are not realized in practice while the costs to the govern

ment and uture generations are extremely high. Already the Egyptian government has indicated that it is opposed to

a market solution to water allocation. An alternative that is under discussion is to allocate water through democratic

devolution. Tis is not a neat theoretical model but a messy political solution. It is a process rather than a model. By

denition, the outcome is unclear, as the power is being delegated to the local armers.

Water could be allocated in bulk to the branch canals that serve some 1,0002,000 Egyptian armers, who could then

take responsibility or the urther allocation within the group. Te armers would develop their own allocation ormulas

based on cultivated area, type o crop, and soil in order to produce water quotas or individual armers.

CONCLUSION

Egypt is in a transitional phase. It is beginning to realize that the water resource is closed. However, the momentum

rom the old hydraulic mission is carrying expansion orward. Te result is less water per hectare and lower incomes or

armers. Tese could have serious political repercussions.

A water market and a democratic devolution are at extreme policy poles or coping with scarcity. Markets are institu

tions that concentrate power in the hands o a ew wealthy people while democratic devolution spreads power among

a wide group o water users. While the Egyptian government is being advised to take the market route or the sake o

eciency, the Australian case study has shown that many o the claimed advantages o the market are in the eye o the

economist, not on the ground. Te Australian water market has also proved to be extremely costly or taxpayers. Egyp

has undertaken an extensive program o land reorm that has provided the government with strong support among

armers. A water market would reverse the gains made under land reorm and place power over water in the hands o

a ew nancially strong groups.



Environmental Science at Qatar University: Realizing Qatars 2030 Vision

Malcolm Potts

ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES FOR THE COUNTRIES OF THE GCC

A primary indicator o the robustness o a countrys economy is the gross domestic product (GDP), which is essentially

the total dollar value o all goods and services. In this respect, Qatar is recognized as the richest nation in the world,

with an unprecedented projected expansion in its GDP, notable during these troubled economic times, o 18.5% or

2010.2 Oil and gas have made Qatar the second highest per capita income country, ollowing Liechtenstein.3 Such wealth

does not come without problems, however, and like other countries in the Gul region, Qatar is aced with a plethora o

environmental challenges.

Tere is an expansive literature on environmental issues, urban growth, and pollution in the countries o the Gul Cooperation Council (GCC) and an awareness that environmental pollution, degradation, and lack o resource manage

ment at the national and regional levels are priority issues o concern. Since the majority o the population lives in the

coastal zone, the important issues are air quality, sewage and waste water management, garbage disposal, degradation o

the near shore marine environment, land reclamation, provision o adequate electricity and pot

environmental conflict in middle east

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