environmental applications of modelling and simulation - modsim 2009
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given at the MODSIM 2009 conference in June in Montreal. The focus was on environmental applications of modelling and simulation with a special emphasis on Governance and Business applications.TRANSCRIPT
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Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DEDesign and
Environment
Environmental Applications of Modelling
and Simulation in Business and
Government Decision Making
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Modelling, Simulation, and
Environmental Policy and Governance
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Problem
Economic and social pressures on natural resources globally
Climate change is a growing concern politically
Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Why modelling and simulation?
Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change and variability
Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric power generation
Global climate models for possible realities in the future
Natural disasters and resource shortages
Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and environmental processes
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
The models
GCMs (global climate / general circulation models)- Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol - Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1° to 5°
Process-based
Regional Climate Models- Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for regions (provincial, state, nation) - Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec ice storm)
Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models- Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological function and impacts on society - Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
The models
Process-based
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
(IPCC, 2009)
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
The models
Heuristic
A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
A mazo n F orest
Ecos y stems
Large Sca l e Pat t ern Large Sca l e P r ocess
S m a ll Sca l e Pattern
(fra g m ente d fore s t)
S m a ll Sca l e Process
(f i re)
Road Bu il d i ng
Large - s c a l e d i st u rbanc e
(Fast v a r i ab l e )
Ppt / ET
Deforestat io n
(Fast v a r i ab l e )
Burn i ng to c le ar l and
(Fast v a r i ab l e )
C li m ate Chan g e
Large - s c a l e
d i sturban c e
(S l o w var i ab l e)
Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, andcross-scale connections
(Oswald, 2008)
Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006
Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006
Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
The models
GeospatialRaster and Vector based Geographic Information- Analyse land pattern- Estimate social and environmental processes that drive change
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
1. Terra 2. Aqua
Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Policy Application - NicaraguaTropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008)The Challenge:
Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be reported to UNFCCC
Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks-geospatial calculation of land cover types-projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models
Findings:
-Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output
-Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this store
-Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to climate change
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Development - Democratic Republic of Congo
Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009)(http://www.bdafoundation.org/)
The Challenge:
- Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources (medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well-being of communities
Relevance of simulation and modelling:
- Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests
- Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much value exists in the forests
Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance
(BDA Foundation, 2009)
(BDA Foundation, 2009)
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Modelling, Environment, and
Business Decision Making
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing demands, technological innovation, and new regulations
Regulatory frameworks and ‘green’ government programs are evolving rapidly this year
Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals
Problem
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible scenarios that a company can follow
Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy and regulatory rhetoric
These scenarios can augment team-based decision making and business strategy formulation
Why modelling and simulation?
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
The Challenge:
- Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy sources
Relevance of simulation and modelling:
- Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory processes and environmental technology
- Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
Current Scenario:
- 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020
- Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits (2) buy international offset credits (10%)(3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for compliance, reduce each year)(4) adapt and reduce emissions
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)
Current Scenario:
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)Potential Scenario:
- 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with a ‘cap and trade’ system
- Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar federal Clean Energy Fund
- Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision making context
M + S Strategy:
- Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and constraints to action.
- From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate.
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
What’s Next?
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Environmental Modelling in Business
What’s Next?
Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus:
- better output from coupled process models- integration of remote sensing with process models- heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry
Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of the above.
DE
Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.
Design and Environment
Thank-you
Merci
For more Information: [email protected]