ensuring global framework for climate services (gfcs) for the farming communities around the world...
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Ensuring Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) for the Farming Communities around the World
R.S. Paroda
Asia-Pacific Association of Agricultural Research Institutions
(APAARI)
(Member of the HLT for the GFCS)
World Climate Conference-3World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better futureBetter climate information for a better future
Geneva, SwitzerlandGeneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 200931 August–4 September 2009
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Conference DeclarationConference Declaration
• Decided to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services
• Requested the SG of WMO to convene an Intergovernmental Meeting within four months
• Decided that the High Level Taskforce of independent experts should prepare a report after wide consultation
• Decided that the report of the Taskforce be circulated to Member States for consideration at the next WMO Congress (in 2011)
Review of the Outcome of WCC-3
• WCC-3 DecidedWCC-3 Decided to establish a Global Framework for to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services Climate Services
• to strengthen production, availability, delivery and to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and application of science-based climate prediction and servicesservices
• WCC-3 DecidedWCC-3 Decided to establish a Global Framework for to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services Climate Services
• to strengthen production, availability, delivery and to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and application of science-based climate prediction and servicesservices
Objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services?
To improve the quality of climate information, make improved services accessible to all, especially the most vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate variability and change,
since it is they who have least access to climate services.
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Blue dots – more than 90% of data receivedBlue dots – more than 90% of data received
Red & yellow dots – less than 45% of data Red & yellow dots – less than 45% of data receivedreceived
WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES?WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES?
Because Because there are there are gaps in gaps in the data the data networks networks supportinsupporting the g the servicesservices
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WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES?WHY a FRAMEWORK for CLIMATE SERVICES?
Because there Because there are gaps in are gaps in the global the global distribution of distribution of scientists, scientists, engineers and engineers and other tertiary other tertiary educated educated people who people who create create information-information-based based servicesservices
http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c3/http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind02/c3/c3s5.htmc3s5.htm
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OtheOther r 24%24%
United United States States 22%22%
Russian Russian federation federation 16%16%
China China 10% 10%
Japan Japan 9%9%
India India 6%6%
Germany 3%Germany 3%
UK UK 3%3%
France France 2%2% Mexico Mexico
2%2%Canada Canada 3% 3%
Global distribution of tertiary educated workers 1990 - Global distribution of tertiary educated workers 1990 - 1998 1998
Anthropogenic warming is ‘unequivocal’
Impact of Climate Change
Emission of Green House Gases (GHGs) leading to warming of climate system by 0.740 C between 1906 and 2005
Temperature rise expected by the end of current Century between 2 to 4.50 C and sea level rise by around 0.18 to 0.59 meters
More intense tropical cyclones with faster wind speeds and heavy precipitation
Contraction of Himalayan glaciers and snow cover
Other projected changes of climate (by 2100)
• Sea levels will rise by 0.1 to 0.8 metres
• More tropical cyclones
• More frequent very hot days
• And… we can see some of these changes already, occurring now.
Worst Floods in Decades across
Asia
Worst Floods in Decades across
Asia
Worst Floods in Centuries across
Europe
Worst Floods in Centuries across
Europe
Floods 2002Floods 2002
BackgroundBackground
AUSTRALIA Suffered Worst
Drought in Centuries
AUSTRALIA Suffered Worst
Drought in Centuries
Drought 2006Drought 2006
BackgroundBackground
Availability of irrigation water
Scholze et al. (2006) Blue tendency to increase
Red tendency to decrease
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Siachen Glacier Retreat
08-10-2006
* Siachen Glacier has been retreated about 1.8 Km in last 17 years
31-10-2000
Source: PMD, June 2008
Economic ImpactsEconomic Impacts
Asia is second only Asia is second only to North America and to North America and the Caribbean in the Caribbean in economic losses economic losses from disastersfrom disasters
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AfricaAsia
South America
N-C Am & Carr.
PacificEurope
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Economic losses
(billions US $)
Hydrometeorological
Geological
Greenhouse Effect vs Abrupt Climate Change
• The Greenhouse effect is a natural process that has increased the temperature of the Earth from -18 C to +15 C and made Earth a habitable planet for diverse life as we know it.
• The abrupt climate change is a process by which Earth’s temperature increases at the rate > 0.1 C/decade. With 1 C increase in temperature the biomes shift poleward by 200-300 kms because ecosystems cannot adjust to such abrupt changes.
CMASC 10/08CMASC 10/08
Impacts of Climate on AgricultureImpacts of Climate on Agriculture
• The impact of climate on agricultural production is increased in fragile environments.
• As much as 80% of the variability in agricultural production is due to climate variability
• The indirect impacts of climate on insects, diseases, and weeds increase when there is climate stress imposed on the plant or animal.
RiceSignificant reductions in yield and quality of rice in southern Japan.
Other cereal cropsSome prefectures reported the effects on yield and quality of wheat and barley.
Fruit treeFruit qualities have clearly changed, for example coloring faintly, enlarging, reduction of acid, softening and spoiling rapidly.
Vegetables and flowersReductions in the growing periods of leafy and root vegetables as well as fruits vegetables.
Livestock and forage cropsReductions in yields of temperate grass and maize were reported in various parts of Japan.
Reported Impacts in Japan
Clouding of rice
Tanning of apple
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• The favorable regions to cultivate apples will gradually move northward in Japan.
Temperature zone above 13℃
Current climate 2060’s
Temperature zone appropriate for the cultivation (7-13 )℃
(Sugiura and Yokozawa, 2004)
Projected increase in intensity of Indian monsoon, c. 2050 (HadRM2)
Change in Annual number of rainy daysChange in Annual number of rainy days Change in rainfall per rainy dayChange in rainfall per rainy day
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2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1 2 3 4 5
Temperature Change (oC)
Whe
at Y
ield
(kg
/ha)
NorthernMountainous(Humid)
Northern Sub-Mountainous(Sub-humid)
Southern Plains(Semi arid)
Southern Plains(Arid)
Effect of Increase in Temperature on Wheat Yields in Different Agro-Climatic Zones of Pakistan
(other factors remaining constant)
User Interface Programme for User Interface Programme for AgricultureAgriculture
• More effective use of global, regional and national climate information and prediction services by farming communities around the world (leading to improved planning and investment in the agricultural sector vital to national economies and livelihoods)
Relevance of Climate Services for Relevance of Climate Services for Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector
• In order to reduce the risk of crop failure and increase the resilience of agronomic and horticultural systems for feed, food, fiber, and fuel production there is an urgent need to develop an improved understanding of the complex interactions between climate and agricultural systems.
• There is an urgent need to implement production systems that can adapt to climate variation and climate extremes, especially in developing countries.
According to the World Bank, it would take only a three-foot rise in sea level to submerge parts of 20 or so other rice-growing river deltas in Asia and the World at large.
Climate services would assist in adapting to climate Climate services would assist in adapting to climate change impacts on food availabilitychange impacts on food availability
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What will the Contribution of the GFCS be?What will the Contribution of the GFCS be?
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-natural-http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/trends-in-natural-disastersdisasters
The possibility The possibility of a range of of a range of science-based science-based disaster risk disaster risk response response strategies strategies everywhere.everywhere.
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0
10
20
30
40
CH
4 fl
ux （
mg m
-2 h
r-1）
MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
14 days aeration21 days aeration
7 days aeration
aeration
Fukushima, JapanProlonged Mid-Season Aeration to Reduce CH4 Emissions
Continuous flooding
湛水期間Flooding
The Workplan of the Taskforce
(1) Information gathering through consultation with governments, users and providers, scientists, and operational observing and information systems; and,
(2) Preparation of a report, including, options for implementing the GFCS, how it might be governed and the cost of doing this. This report to be considered by the WMO’s 16th Congress (May 2011), and by the UN Secretary-General, for appropriate follow-up.
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Consultative Meetings held/planned
• Nairobi, Kenya 12–16 April African Ministerial• Bali, Indonesia 30 April/6May WMO RA V• Geneva, Switzerland 18 May UN Interagency meeting• Geneva, Switzerland 25 May Club Diplomatic• Geneva, Switzerland 2 June Geneva missions briefing • Oslo, Norway 8-12 June IPY Conference • Geneva, Switzerland 9 June WMO Exec Council • Beijing, China 17-18 June Consultation• Delhi, India 21 June Consultation• Mexico City, Mexico 5-7 July CODIA• Belo Horizonte, Brazil 12-14 July CAgM Workshop• Bogata, Columbia 22-29 Sept WMO RA III• Marrakech, Morocco 28 Oct/4 Nov RA I• Windhoek, Namibia 15-21 Nov CBS (Ext)• Cayman Is, Caribbean 9-10 Nov Heads of NMSs• Cancun, Mexico 29 Nov/10 Dec CoP16
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Questionnaire for e-Consultation
In all,15 questions relating directly to the structure of the report (likely supply of climate services, demand of climate services and how to implement the GFCS).
Around 120 responses received for initial analysis, with about half from the operational community and half from the research community.
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Responses from Responses from regionsregions
Africa Africa 1919Asia Asia 2323South America South America 33Carib/North America 12Carib/North America 12SE Asia/Oceania 11SE Asia/Oceania 11Europe Europe 4444
http://www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.htmlhttp://www.wmo.int/hlt-gfcs/index_en.html
FEEDBACK FROM e-CONSULTATION
Establishment of an evolving system that is user driven, and that fills existing gaps;
Building of capacity at global, regional and more specifically at national levels of both providers and sectoral users so that standard climate services are effectively used;
Development of a team of experts that can carry out research to meet the various requirements of appropriate climate services to end users;
Investments in institutional infrastructure in order to make available required information in a timely manner;
Establishment of communications channels at different levels that are dedicated to promoting climate services; and,
Development of an organisational model that attracts additional funding from the Governments, Private Sector and the Donor Community.
Feedback from National Systems
• Free access to information (though some have expressed concerns/reservations)
• Regional and Global Services must get established/strengthened
• Good communication strategy in place• Services at the National level need to be improved• Higher investments needed on climate services• Capacity building - a critical need • Global coordination mechanism is paramount• Time now to act than talk
Report Structure
• Part I: What climate services are available from all sources around the world that are proving to be useful – The Supply side
• Part II: What is likely to be required in short, medium and long-term – The Demand side
• Part III: Options for bridging gaps and implementing mechanisms to meet current and future climate services requirements with an emphasis on not duplicating what is now available - The implementation strategy.
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What will the Global Framework for What will the Global Framework for
Climate Services Look Like?Climate Services Look Like?
Research &
Modeling
and Prediction
HealthHealth
AgricultureAgriculture
TransportTransport
TourismTourism
WaterWater EnergyEnergy
EcosystemEcosystemSectoral Users
Climate Services Information System
User
Interface
Programme
Research & Modeling and
Prediction
Observations and Monitoring
Health
Agriculture
Transport
TourismWater
Energy
EcosystemUsers
Climate Services Information System
User Interface Programme
Government
Private sector
Cap
aci
ty B
uild
ing
Cap
aci
ty B
uild
ing
Cap
acity
Bu
ildin
gC
ap
acity
Bu
ildin
g
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A slightly revised schematic of the GFCS
Perhaps a more appropriate schematic would be to have the following features:
• Global Coordination with both regional and national centres.• Regional Centres provide required standard products and
participate in User Interface processes
GFCS for Farming Communities (1)
• Improve risk evaluation and information delivery. An intensive effort is needed on the use of climate forecasts to reduce the risks to crop and animal production, especially in areas where the risks are greatest.
• Such efforts should include the development of effective dissemination tools for timely provision of authentic information for decision-makers.
• Climate information should hence be relevant and actionable to meet the needs of end users, such as contingency planning to adapt to rainfall variations, drought proofing, crop insurance etc.
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GFCS for Farming Communities (2)
• New and innovative models of cooperation and partnerships are needed among several groups including WMO, FAO, WHO, the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), National Agricultural Research Systems and Extension Services, national entities dealing with agriculture, food security and policy issues, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and Soil Conservation Services.
• Linkages between producers of climate information and applications and various end users have to be enhanced through appropriate mechanisms such as awareness raising, capacity- building for intermediaries as well as end users, and the strengthening of institutional partnerships, especially in the developing countries that are more vulnerable to climate change effects.
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GFCS for Farming Communities (3)
• Adaptation strategies to cope with climate variation and extreme events will have to be developed and transferred in a timely manner so that their adoption helps in reducing and managing risks and ensure resilient agricultural systems.
• Strategies for climate change mitigation for agricultural systems will be developed. It is important to recognize that agriculture is also a part of the solution to mitigate climate change and hence adequate investments at national, regional and global level are required as a matter of urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while ensuring increased agricultural productivity and overall environmental sustainability.
• Mechanisms for compensation to small farmers for environmental services that they provide will have to be put in place as a matter of priority.
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Conclusions
• Convert the WCC-3 vision of Climate Services for the Agriculture Sector into a well defined, sustainable operational system based around existing national, regional and global contributions to climate observing, research and services capabilities;
• Establish and strengthen cooperation/partnership that engage all stakeholders in the agriculture sector;
• Promote and support capacity building to activate GFCS User Interface Forum in Agriculture.
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Future StrategyFuture Strategy
Think Globally
Act Locally
ThanThank youk you
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