ENSO AND GLACIER RETREAT 8TH GRADE MATH ACADEMIC NIGHT

ELISA JIMENEZ, MARTINA PLATONOFF, MARTIN CHAVEZ, MATTHIAS BRITO

INTRODUCTION

DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHEN THE NEXT “EL NIÑO” OR “LA NIÑA” PHENOMENON IS COMING?

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT ENSO

• El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to to the effect of sea surface temperature which sometimes are cold and sometimes are warm. ENSO hits the western cost of South America.

• El Niño refers to the warm phase and La Niña refers to the cold phase.

• El Niño has high air surface pressure in the Western Pacific. La Niña has a low air surface temperature in the Western Pacific.

HOW CAN WE PREVENT DISASTERS FROM ENSO?• Scientists cannot fully determine when the next El Niño or

La Niña phenomenon is going to happen. So there isn’t so much to prevent the next ENSO disaster.

• Some things to prevent your house from flooding is building it at higher altitudes and as farthest apart from the beach.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT GLACIER RETREAT

We will use Antisana’s Glacier 15 as a reference. Glacier retreat is a big problem in Ecuador. The main problem is that every 10 years the glaciers melt at an accelerated pace. For example between the years 1996-2004 the glaciers retreated 1.71 m per month! In 1956 -1996 glaciers in 1 month melted 0.38 m. But when La Niña Phenomenon occurred the glaciers mass increased, but only through the years 1995-1997 and 1998-2001. Another interesting fact is that in 48 years 22% of the glaciers has been lost.

OUR LAB• What are the possible consequences of ENSO or the

Retreat of the Glaciers in Antisana?

• We gathered our data from the sea surface temperature of Galapagos for determining if the next ENSO phenomemon is coming. The equation was y=0.50x+20

• Then we looked sea surface temperatures of galapagos from the last 5 years to see if the temperatures meant something. The equation was y=0.473x+21.387

• An finally we looked at the glacier retreat of Antisana’s Glacier 15 (From 200-2004) The equation was the following

y=-16804x+379019

TABLE ABOUT GALAPAGOS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER TO MARCH

GRAPH ABOUT GALAPAGOS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTHS OF SEPTEMBER TO MARCH

X= number of month, (From September-March)Y= Average Sea Surface Temp.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 820.68

21.18

21.68

22.18

22.68

23.18

23.68

24.18

24.68f(x) = 0.590357142857143 x + 20.5242857142857

Average Sea Surface Temperature of The Galapagos Western Islands 2014/15

Month (Starting with September 2014)

Avg

. T

emp.

(C

°)

Slope= 0.50Y-Intercept=20.5

CALCULATIONS

TABLE ABOUT GALAPAGOS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FOR THE YEARS 2010-2014

GRAPH ABOUT GALAPAGOS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE YEARS OF 2010-2014

0 1 2 3 4 5 621.00

21.50

22.00

22.50

23.00

23.50

24.00

24.50

f(x) = 0.473 x + 21.387

Average Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) for the Galápagos Southern Islands

2010-2014

Year (starting with 2010)

Ave

rage

ST

T (

C°)

X=Number of Year(Starting with 2010)Y=Average Temperature

Slope=0.473Y-Intercept=21.387

TABLE ABOUT ANTISANA’S GLACIER 15 RETREAT

GRAPH ABOUT ANTISANA’S GLACIER 15 RETREAT

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.50

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

f(x) = − 16803.7 x + 379019.1

Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat

Year (Starting with 2000)

Are

a (m

2)

X=Number of Years (Starting with 2000)Y=Area (m2)

Slope=-16804Y-Intercept=379019

CONCLUSION

I think that after seeing all these results and facts Ecuador really needs to make a plan to prevent the people from losing their most beloved things because of ENSO. They need to be prepared. And about Antisana, I think the government needs to start making more campaigns about how can people take care of our environment and don’t pollute. And then maybe the glaciers may stay the same.

Thanks to this lab we have seen that Antisana’s Galcier 15

SOURCES

APA FORMAT:

1. What Are the Causes and Effects of ENSO? | NASA Wavelength Digital Library. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://nasawavelength.org/resource/nw-000-000-003-409

2. Ecuador: Climate Change Threatens Antisana's Glacier | Pulitzer Center. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://pulitzercenter.org/reporting/ecuador-environment-climate-change-quito-antisana-ice-cap-glacier-water-source

3. What are El Niño and La Niña events? (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/ENSO-what.shtml

IMAGE SOURCES

1. Glacier-fed river systems threatened by climate change – University of Copenhagen. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.science.ku.dk/english/press/news/2012/glacier_feed_system/

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