Slide 1

ENSO-African Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models for current and future climate Titike, Hussen, Prajeesh, and Suyash

Targeted Training ActivityENSO and Monsoon in the Current and Future Climate

ICTP

10 August 2012

Outline Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models African climate in CMIP5-Models

Performance of CMIP5-Models

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA Pacific mean climate in CMIP5-Models

African climate in CMIP5-Models

Climate cont Climate cont

Annual Cycle of Rainfall

(10 - 20N, 10W 20E)

(5- 16N, 30 40 E)Sahel JJAS NEA JJAS

(5S - 5N, 35 45 E)EEA SONInterannual Variability (Sahel) (10 - 20N, 10W 20E)

(5 - 26N, 30 40E)(5S - 5N, 35 45E) ENAEEAPerformance of CMIP5-Models

Power Spectrum analysis for Nino3 Index CMIP5 Models

correlation SON Rainfall with Nino3 (EEA ) correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (NEA )

correlation JJAS Rainfall with Nino3 (Sahel )

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, NEA

ENSO and JJAS Rainfall relation, Sahel

JJAS Elnino Composite JJAS Lanina Composite

ENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEAENSO and SON Rainfall relation, EEA

SON Elnino Composite SON Lanina Composite

Based on our assessment we found the following models better in representing climatology and showing ENSO-African monsoon relations.

MPI-ESM-MR HadGE2ES IPSL-CM5A - MR GFDLCM3 CNRM

All the above models predict that the NINO 3.4 temperature, EEA precipitation and NEA precipitation would increase by the end of 21st century. However the models disagree over the projection for Sahel precipitation.

Thank You