enrollment research team aacrao-sem nov. 2013 chicago compton, forbes, ralston, wohlgemuth, 2013...

Enrollment Research Team

AACRAO-SEM

Nov. 2013Chicago Compton, Forbes, Ralston, Wohlgemuth, 2013

Dissecting the End: Factors that Explain Differences in Time to

Degree and Debt at Graduation

Jonathan Compton, Greg Forbes,Kate Ralston, Darin Wohlgemuth

Enrollment Research TeamIowa State University

November 11, 2013AACRAO - SEM

Chicago, IL


AACRAO-SEM


Enrollment Research Team @ ISU

• Darin Wohlgemuth, Interim Director of Admissions,

& Director of Enrollment Research

• Jonathan Compton, Registrar’s Office

• Greg Forbes, Student Financial Aid

• Kate Ralston, Office of Admissions

• Julia Sullivan, Student Financial Aid


AACRAO-SEM


Enrollment Research Team @ ISU

Vice President for Student Affairs

Registrar

Associate VP for Student Affairs

Admissions & New Student Programs

Student Financial Aid

Financial Aid Research

Admissions Research

Registrar Research

Director of Enrollment Research


AACRAO-SEM


• Established 1858 • Land grant, research-intensive institution with extension

service• Seven colleges with undergraduate, graduate and

professional programs• Fall 2012 - 8,780 FTE Employees

– 1,694 Faculty, 2,515 P&S, 1,408 Merit, 2,934 Students• FY2013 Budget - $1,214M Total Revenues

– $580M General Fund– $318M Tuition Revenue and $222M State Appropriations

A little bit about Iowa State…


AACRAO-SEM


Enrollment at Iowa State University

• Records set this year! Fall 2013 Fall 2012

– Total Enrollment 33,241 31,040

– Undergraduates 27,659 25,553

– New Direct from High School 6,089 5,366

– New Transfers 2,014 1,851

– Minority + International 7,486 6,765

– Record FAFSAs received

– Record Financial Aid dollars disbursed


AACRAO-SEM


Freshman Admissions Requirements

• Regent Admissions Index (≥ 245 Guaranteed)5 x Core Courses +

2 x ACT +

HS Percentile Rank +

20 x HS GPA

• 15,204 Domestic Freshman Apps• 90% Offered Admission• 42% Yield


AACRAO-SEM


Overview

• Graduation Rates and Time to Degree• Methodology• Factors & Data• Cross Tabs & Analysis of Variance• Regression Analysis• Path Analysis• Implications


AACRAO-SEM


Survey

What is your 4-yr Graduation Rate?

What is your 6-yr Grad Rate?

What is your 5-yr Grad Rate?


AACRAO-SEM


Time to Degree

• National & local interest in increasing 4-year graduation rates

• President’s College Affordability Plan– U.S. Dept. of Education proposes using indicators

to rate colleges (e.g. FTFT graduation rates)

• Performance based state funding• Rankings: U.S. News & World Report


AACRAO-SEM


Retention & Graduation Rates


AACRAO-SEM


Research Questions• What factors drive time to degree at Iowa

State?

• Do the same factors impact debt upon graduation?

• Does increased time to degree lead to higher loan debt upon graduation?


AACRAO-SEM


Methodology

• Define the Population

• Data set up & gathering

• Analysis

• Implications


AACRAO-SEM


What is the population?

• Retention– Entry cohort looking forward

• Graduation– Entry cohort looking forward

• Time to Degree Analysis– Graduates looking backwards (Survivors)


AACRAO-SEM


What is the population?

• Undergraduate

• First Time Freshman

• Admitted between 2000 and 2005

• Graduated within 8 years


AACRAO-SEM


Factors• What factors cause students to extend their

time to graduation? Debt? • Demographic, Academic, Experiential, FinancialDemographics Academic Experiential Financial

Gender HS Class Rank Study Abroad Borrowing

Minority ACT/SAT Internships Financial Need

Residency Early Credits Minor Pell Eligibility

1st Term GPA Learning Community

Scholars Award Program

1st Term Credits STEM Major High Ability Scholarship

Changing Major College Choice

Failed Courses Double Major

Dropped Courses Double Degree

5 Yr Programs


AACRAO-SEM


What data do you need?And, where do you get it?

• Graduation record• Grades & Courses• Enrollment behavior• Demographics• Academic characteristics• Experiential• Soci-economic status• Financial aid package

Registrar Registrar Registrar Registrar / Admissions Admissions Program coordinators Fin Aid / Admissions Financial Aid


AACRAO-SEM


Death by Cross tabs

It appears that Debt is impacted by Time to Degree, but what impacts Time to Degree?


AACRAO-SEM


Death by Cross tabs

Student success in individual courses appears to have an impact on Time to Degree


AACRAO-SEM


Death by Cross tabs

Major Choice and Major Changes appear to have an impact on Time to Degree


AACRAO-SEM


Death by Cross tabs

Does Financial Need have an impact on Time to Degree? How do you know? Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)


AACRAO-SEM


Analysis of Variance(One Way ANOVA)

Need Group Mean Time to Deg Significance*$0 4.479 -$1 - $4,999 4.485 0.99$5,000 - $9,999 4.494 0.98$10,000 or more 4.515 0.62

Enrolled College Mean Time to Deg Significance*College 1 4.435 -College 2 4.303 0.00College 3 4.626 0.00College 4 4.698 0.00College 5 4.253 0.00College 6 4.352 0.98

*Significance between groups calculated on graduating within four years using oneway anova with the Scheffe adjustment.


AACRAO-SEM


Factors that Extend Time to Degree


AACRAO-SEM


Influence of Multiple Variables

Internship participation and majoring in a STEM field impact time to degree.How much influence does each of these have individually?Lets take this to the next level, Regression


AACRAO-SEM


Multiple Regression AnalysisTime to degree

• Determine influence of each variable

• Holds other factors constant

• Shows what is and is not important

• Useful in predicting time to degree


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Demographics)

Coef. P>|t| BETAFemale -0.1646 0 -0.11387Nonresident -0.0232 0.04 -0.01359Minority 0.0316 0.23 0.011332International -0.0652 0.44 -0.00437Constant 3.9672

What does this mean for a Domestic Female Non-minority student from Out of State?

𝑅2=0.482

𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝟑 .𝟗𝟔𝟕𝟐+ (−𝟎 .𝟏𝟔𝟒𝟔∗𝟏 )+(𝟎 .𝟎𝟑𝟏𝟔∗𝟎 )+(−𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐∗𝟏 )+(−𝟎 .𝟎𝟔𝟓𝟐∗𝟎 )+…𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝟑 .𝟕𝟕𝟗𝟒+…

𝑻𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒕𝒐 𝑫𝒆𝒈𝒓𝒆𝒆=𝑪𝒐𝒏𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒕+(−𝟎 .𝟏𝟔𝟒𝟔 ) 𝑭𝒆𝒎𝒂𝒍𝒆+ (𝟎 .𝟎𝟑𝟏𝟔 ) 𝑴𝒊𝒏𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒚 + (−𝟎 .𝟎𝟐𝟑𝟐 )𝑵𝒐𝒏𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒕+ (−𝟎 .𝟎𝟔𝟓𝟐 ) 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒂𝒍+…


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Academics)

Coef. P>|t| BETA

F grades 0.1684 0 0.453044

Dropped Classes 0.0644 0 0.149557

Early Credits -0.0131 0 -0.14743

HS Rank -0.0061 0 -0.13987

Major Change 0.0854 0 0.107271

First term Credits -0.0258 0 -0.06452

First term GPA 0.0039 0.63 0.003698

ACT score 0.0007 0.64 0.003669


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Experiences)

Coef. P>|t| BETA

Co-op / Internship 0.2517 0 0.196777

140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0 0.179233

Double Degree 0.4686 0 0.103345

STEM 0.1062 0 0.073636

Double Major 0.1432 0 0.063713

Study Abroad 0.1067 0 0.050735

Minor 0.0698 0 0.042752

Learning Community 0.0187 0.04 0.012923


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (College Choice)

Coef. P>|t| BETA

College 1 Held Out

College 2 -0.0357 0.03 -0.01529

College 3 0.1199 0 0.05077

College 4 0.2421 0 0.150463

College 5 -0.1118 0 -0.04281

College 6 0.0291 0.06 0.012934


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Financial)

Coef. P>|t| BETA

Debt at graduation ($1,000’s) 0.0030 0 0.094343

Financial Need ($1,000’s) -0.0054 0 -0.04443

Pell Elig 0.0525 0 0.02906

Merit Award -0.0271 0.04 -0.0183

Award Program G -0.0246 0.51 -0.0053

Award Program M 0.0045 0.92 0.000915


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Debt Upon Graduation

Factor Variable Coef. P>|t|

Experiential

140+ Credit Program 8925.488 0

Learning Community -2244.05 0

Double Degree 4793.96 0

Study Abroad 1817.34 0

Co-op/Internship 975.77 0

STEM 577.87 0.26

Double Major 518.30 0.30

Minor 229.80 0.53

Financial

Financial Need 1.61 0

Pell Elig -7914.45 0

Award Program G -9306.05 0

Award Program M -9272.89 0

Merit Award -89.14 0.85


Demographics

Female 1598.47 0

Intl -16215.75 0

Nonresident -1253.81 0.00

Minority -33.56 0.97

Academics

HS Rank 283.91 0

F grades 1997.81 0

Dropped Classes 1187.77 0

First term GPA -2773.99 0

ACT score -310.73 0

Early Credits -103.50 0

First term Credits -382.24 0

Major Change 154.13 0.42

Enrolled

College

College 1 Held Out

College 2 -2657.77 0

College 3 2034.61 0.00

College 4 2650.36 0

College 5 -1419.74 0.03

College 6 -755.43 0.19

𝑅2=0.231


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time 2 Degree v. Debt Time to

DegreeStudent Debt

Factor Variable P>|t| P>|t|

Demographics

Female 0 0Minority 0.23 0.97Nonresident 0.04 0.00International 0.44 0

Academics

HS Rank 0.00 0ACT score 0.64 0Early Credits 0 0First term GPA 0.63 0First term Credits 0 0F grades 0 0Dropped Classes 0 0Major Change 0 0.42

Enrolled

College

College 1 Held OutCollege 2 0.03 0College 3 0 0.00College 4 0 0College 5 0 0.03

College 6 0.06 0.19

Time to Degree

Student Debt

R squared statistic 0.482 0.241

Factor Variable P>|t| P>|t|

Experiential

140+ Credit Program 0 0STEM 0 0.26Co-op/Internship 0 0.00Study Abroad 0 0Learning Community 0.04 0Minor 0 0.53Double Degree 0 0Double Major 0 0.30

Financial

Debt at graduation 0 Financial Need 0 0Pell Elig 0 0Award Program G 0.51 0Award Program M 0.91 0Merit Award 0.03 0.85


AACRAO-SEM


Interaction of Independent Variables

Both variables impact Time to Degree, but is their a relationship between the variables that may impact the analysis?


AACRAO-SEM


Interaction of Independent Variables

A relationship appears to exist, how do we account for this influence?Path Analysis


AACRAO-SEM


Path Model


AACRAO-SEM


Model Fit


AACRAO-SEM


Meaningful coefficients


AACRAO-SEM


So now what?

• Value added as part of education…

• Balance between time to degree and value

added opportunities

• Performance based funding

• Curriculum construction

• Student advising


AACRAO-SEM


Data on placement rates by coop-internships

Internship Participation Placement at Graduation

Co-op (2 internships with same company) 80%

Fall/Spring term internship 75%

Summer internship 70%

No experiential education 53%

Overall placement6 months after graduation 95%

Data based on ECS review of 7,000 engineering graduates

“Graduates that don’t have an experiential work experience on their resume have fewer employment opportunities and have to work a lot harder to connect with an employer willing to give them a chance.” – ISU Engineering Career Services


AACRAO-SEM


Taking This Home

• How might you use the results?

• Who on your campus has the necessary data?

• Who has the skills and tools?

• Who on your campus is interested?

• Who needs to be interested?


AACRAO-SEM


Comments & QuestionsContact Information

Jonathan: [email protected]

Greg: [email protected]

Kate: [email protected]

Darin: [email protected]

Thank you for attending this morning!


AACRAO-SEM


Additional Slides

-Regression Detail (T2D)

Other?


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to Degree

𝑅2=0.482


Demographics

Female -0.1646 0Minority 0.0316 0.23NonRes -0.0232 0.04Intl -0.0652 0.44

Academics

HS Rank -0.0061 0.00ACT score 0.0007 0.64Early Credits -0.0131 0First term GPA 0.0039 0.63First term Credits -0.0258 0F grades 0.1684 0Dropped Classes 0.0644 0Major Change 0.0854 0

Enrolled

College

College 1 Held OutCollege 2 -0.0357 0.03College 3 0.1199 0College 4 0.2421 0College 5 -0.1118 0College 6 0.0291 0.06


Experiential

140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0

STEM 0.1062 0

Coop/Internship 0.2517 0

Study Abroad 0.1067 0

Learning Community 0.0187 0.04

Minor 0.0698 0

Double Degree 0.4686 0

Double Major 0.1432 0

Financial

Debt at graduation 0.0000 0

Financial Need 0.0000 0

Pell Elig 0.0525 0

Award Program G -0.0246 0.51

Award Program M 0.0045 0.91

Strategic Award -0.0271 0.03


AACRAO-SEM



Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaFemale -0.1646 0.0096 -17.22 0 -0.1139Minority 0.0316 0.0263 1.2 0.229 0.0113Nonresident -0.0232 0.0113 -2.05 0.04 -0.0136Intl -0.0652 0.0848 -0.77 0.442 -0.0044


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Academics)

Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaHS Rank -0.0061 0.0019 -3.22 0.001 -0.1399ACT score 0.0007 0.0014 0.47 0.637 0.0037Early Credits -0.0131 0.0005 -24.66 0 -0.1474First term GPA 0.0039 0.0081 0.48 0.633 0.0037First term Credits -0.0258 0.0024 -10.57 0 -0.0645F grades 0.1684 0.0032 51.93 0 0.4530Dropped Classes 0.0644 0.0028 22.74 0 0.1496Major Change 0.0854 0.0051 16.89 0 0.1073


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Experiences)

Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| Beta140+ Credit Program 0.8392 0.0300 27.96 0 0.1792STEM 0.1062 0.0134 7.9 0 0.0736Coop / Internship 0.2517 0.0077 32.83 0 0.1968Study Abroad 0.1067 0.0128 8.35 0 0.0507Learning Community 0.0187 0.0091 2.04 0.041 0.0129Minor 0.0698 0.0096 7.29 0 0.0428Double Degree 0.4686 0.0261 17.97 0 0.1033Double Major 0.1432 0.0132 10.83 0 0.0637


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (College Choice)

Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaLiberal Arts & Sciences

Held Out

Ag & Life Sciences -0.0357 0.0167 -2.14 0.033 -0.0153Design 0.1199 0.0169 7.08 0 0.0508Engineering 0.2421 0.0145 16.73 0 0.1505Human Sciences -0.1118 0.0171 -6.55 0 -0.0428Business 0.0291 0.0153 1.9 0.057 0.0129


AACRAO-SEM


Regression Analysis – Time to degree (Financial)

Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| BetaDebt at graduation 0.0000 0.0000 14.63 0 0.0943Financial Need 0.0000 0.0000 -5.13 0 -0.0444Pell Elig 0.0525 0.0149 3.53 0 0.0291Award Program G -0.0246 0.0375 -0.66 0.512 -0.0053Award Program M 0.0045 0.0380 0.12 0.905 0.0009Strategic Award -0.0271 0.0121 -2.24 0.025 -0.0183


AACRAO-SEM



Coef. P>|t|Female -0.1646 0Minority 0.0316 0.23Nonresident -0.0232 0.04International -0.0652 0.44Constant 3.9672

What does this mean for a Domestic Female Non-minority student from Out of State?

𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑜𝐷𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒=𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑡+ (−0.1646 )𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒+ (0.0316 ) 𝑀𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦+ (−0.0232 ) 𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡+(−0.0652 ) 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑎𝑙=3.9672+(−0.1646∗1 )+ (0.0316∗0 )+(−0.0232∗1 )+(−0.0652∗0 )=3.7794𝑅2=0.482

enrollment research team aacrao-sem nov. 2013 chicago compton, forbes, ralston, wohlgemuth, 2013...

Documents

total enrollment

isudarin wohlgemuth

research questionswhat

registrars officegreg

yr graduation rate

state fundingrankings

state appropriations

iowa state universityrecords