Seminar on Global Nuclear Fuel Supply26 January 2009, IAEA, Vienna

Enrichment: Present and Projected Future Supply and

DemandMark Elliott

Director, Marketing & SalesURENCO

2

Nuclear Fuel Process

40%

Value added per segment

5%

35%

20%

URENCO is firmly positioned in the second highest

added value segment of the fuel

supply chain

3

Demand for Enrichment Services

Demand for SWU is driven by:

• Load factors and reload patterns of operating plants• Uprating MWe of operating plants• Extended lifetimes• Technical, economic or political shutdowns• Ongoing and planned new build• Timing of first cores for new reactors • Fuel cycle lead times • Uranium prices influencing tails assays• MOX fuel utilization

4

Enrichment Market Shares:Worldwide – 2008 Estimate

USEC26%

CNNC1%

TENEX26%

EURODIF / AREVA

21%

JNFL1%

URENCO25%

5

Enrichment – A Long Term View

Ongoing and future developments include:

• Replacement of old enrichment capacity (GDP and centrifuge) with new centrifuge capacity

• Major capital investment in capacity• Investment will only be made if desired rate of return

can be achieved• Modular installation adjusted from time to time to

match forecast SWU demand• Ensuring long-term reliable supply and a competitive

market

6

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

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2020

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WNA Low WNA Reference WNA High

Enrichment Demand: Worldwide Forecasts

tSW

Swu demand depends on assumptions re tails assay, MOX, etc

7

Enrichment Demand: Worldwide Forecasts

Chart 1407.3B

tSW

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2008

2009

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WNA Low WNA Reference WNA High NAC (0.3wt% tails)

8

Enrichment Demand: Worldwide Forecasts

tSW

GDP capacity replacement begins:

LES, ACP, GBII

Current Rosatom planning horizon

US-Russian HEU Agreement ends

Potential SILEX deployment

AREVA US Plant

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2008

2009

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WNA Low WNA Reference WNA High NAC (0.3wt% tails)

9

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 End2008

2012 2015

02000400060008000

1000012000140001600018000

UK NETHERLANDS GERMANY PLANNED CAPACITY

URENCO Capacity Build-up: 1975 - 2015

tSW/aSource: URENCO

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2015 2020

Rosatom (Other)

IUEC

Rosatom (SWU)

Others (JNFL/CNNC et al.)

French US

French GBII

French GDP*

SILEX

USEC AGC

HEU (Russian/US)

USEC Paducah*

LES NEF

Urenco EU

NAC Forecast (2008)

WNA High Forecast (2007)

WNA Ref Forecast (2007)

WNA Low Forecast (2007)

.

Forecast Supply/Demand Balance:All Planned Supply Sources

Million SWU/a

* Economic production only

HEU supply and trade barriers

maintainequilibrium

AGC and SILEX unproven

Installed Capacity driven by sales

SWU Demand in 2020 55-60m SWU

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Typical Utility Supply Portfolio

0 5 10 15 20Contract Term (years)

U3O8

Conversion

SWU

EUP

Fabrication

Example portfolio for a 3-4 reactor utility (in operation) could consist of 13 contracts, of various durations from as many as 18 supplier states.

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Contracting for Uranium versus Primary Exports

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

U3O8 Conv SWU Fab Reactor

% o

f U

rani

um S

ales

= Supplier specific export licenses= Supplier/customer contracts = Customer specific export licenses

U3O8

UF6 EUP

FUEL

2015 Market Volume : 200 million lbs 70,000 tU 50 million SWU 8000 tU

2015 Market Value : $14 billion $1 billion $8 billion $2 billion $25 billionTOTAL

EUP

(LEU)

75tU per 1000 MW PWR First Core

Value : $230 million25tU per 1000 MW PWR Reload

Value : $80 million

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Summary

• Long-term fuel cycle contracts provide reliable supply at predictable cost

• By 2015 all operating enrichment capacity may be based on centrifuge

• Enrichment capacity expansion will be modular and adjusted to meet demand in a competitive market

• Two primary sources of technology (ETC or Russia) can provide all required capacity worldwide

• Sufficient enrichment capacity can be installed on time to meet forecast SWU demand for existing and new NPP worldwide