Enlarging The Sorting Hat: Multiple Measures For Placementbrad.bostian@

cpcc.edu

Let’s Review Our Assumptions

Placing some students into developmental education is a good idea

Placement should be based on the knowledge students have when they enter college

First AssumptionPlacing some students into developmental education is a good idea

After all, according to Clifford Adelman, students placed into multiple levels of dev. ed. fail to complete due to their lack of academic preparation, not the dev. ed. track itself

Second AssumptionPlacement should be based on the knowledge students enter college with

ACT defines college readiness as the level of achievement a student needs to be ready to enroll and succeed —without remediation— in credit-bearing first-year postsecondary courses

And These Sub-Assumptions• College readiness is about content knowledge• Placement tests predict college success• Placement test items reflect college work• Students understand the importance of the

placement tests• Students prepare for placement tests• Students survive developmental education• Developmental education improves college readiness • Developmental education solves the right problem• A blanket approach to placement can cover the right

students

First Some History

A Typical Chart From The CCRC Study

Another Typical Chart From The Study

Math In-Order Course Completion and Enrollment – NC

3+ levels below

2 levels below

1 level below

GKAlgebra

Referred to Level

3+1,507

TOTAL: 8%

Not completed 23%

Not completed 12%

Not completed 6%

Not enrolled23%

Not enrolled11%

Not enrolled9%

Not enrolled7%

• Sample: 2002-2005 cohorts, tracked for three years

Passed54%

Enrolled77%

Enrolled43%

Passed31%

Enrolled22%

Passed16%

Enrolled9%

Not completed 2%

Math students don’t get through

From Dr. Tom Bailey, CCRC, presented to NC State Board of Community Colleges. Does not include students who didn’t test

22 Passed

27 Took Developmental

Reading By Spring 2011

326 Placed Into Basic Skills For Reading (7%)

4546 Students Began Fall 2010

Our Students Aren’t Getting Through

Not

Getting

Through

Research Supports Using Multiple Measures To Place Students

Scott-Clayton 2012Poole, Shulruf, Rudland & Wilkinson 2012Kobrin & Patterson (College Board) 2011Morrison & Schmit 2010Sawyer (ACT) 2010Kobrin, Patterson, Shaw, Mattern & Barbuti (CB) 2008Geiser & Santalices 2007Lotkowski, Robbins & Noeth (ACT) 2004Robbins, Davis, Lauver, Langley & Carlstrom 2004Kobrin, Camara & Milewski 2002Noble & Sawyer (ACT) 2002Bridgeman, McCamley-Jenkins & Ervin (CB) 2000Smittle 1995Nordstrom 1990Sawyer (ACT) 1989Morgan (CB) 1989Troutman 1982

We Could Flip The Ratio Of College Level To Developmental Level

Developmental M

ath

Developmental R

eading

Developmental E

nglish

Any Deve

lopmental0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

41%34% 35%

56%

18% 19%25%

39%

Developmental Placement Versus Reg-istration: 5093 New Fall 2012 Students

PlacedTook

Students Avoid Developmental Classes

The Mean HS GPA In NC Was 2.55

MAT 101

MAT 110

MAT 115

MAT 121

MAT 140

MAT 151

MAT 155

MAT 161

MAT 171

ENG 110-111

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2.32.6

2.42.7 2.6

3.0

2.6

3.0 3.0

2.5

High School GPA Level Predicting C Or Better In Particular College Courses

High

Sch

ool G

PA

2006 (N121)

2007 (N319)

2008 (N5182)

2009 (N6879)

2010 (N646)

0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50

0.28

0.21

0.38 0.390.45

0.010.06

0.14 0.16 0.18

0.02 0.030.09 0.09

0.17

Correlations With NCCCS ENG-111 Grade By HS Grad Year

High School GPASAT WritingACCUPLACER Sentence Skills

What Should The Expiration Date Be?

2005 (N1) 2006 (N21) 2007 (N46) 2008 (N1279)

2009 (N1453)

2010 (N132)

00.05

0.10.15

0.20.25

0.30.35

0.40.45

0.5

0.00

0.26

0.14

0.41 0.390.43

Correlation of High School GPA to NCCCS MAT-161 Grade

Predictive Power Diminishes Gradually

< 1998 (N33)

1998-2002 (N23)

2003-2007 (N37)

2008 (N8)

2009 (N10)

2010 (N27)

2011 (N90)

2012 (N161)

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0.040.10

0.01

0.86

0.450.39

0.27

0.46

Correlation of High School GPA to CPCC English Grade

How Long Are Transcripts Still Predictive? We Need More Data

< 1998 (N16)

1998-2002 (N10)

2003-2007 (N23)

2008 (N12)

2009 (N11)

2010 (N19)

2011 (N59)

2012 (N112)

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.05

0.22

0.47

0.66

0.57

0.44

0.30

0.43

Correlation of High School GPA to CPCC Math Grade

How Long Are Transcripts Still Predictive? We Need More Data

MAT 101

MAT 110

MAT 115

MAT 121

MAT 140

MAT 151

MAT 155

MAT 161

MAT 171

ENG 110-111

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00 College Course Grades By HS GPA

0.0-2.60.0-4.02.6-4.0

Mea

n Co

urse

Gra

des

What Will Happen To College Course Grades?

CPCC College Math Grades Should Go Up, Not Down

High School English Grades Aren’t Very Predictive

ENG090 or RED 090 No ENG090 or RED 0900.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.27

0.34

0.020.06

Correlation Of Charlotte HS GPA And English Grade With College English

Grade

HS GPAHS English Grade

What About Other States? Long Beach CC

Here Is A Study From Long Beach CC In CA

At Long Beach CC, They Flipped The Ratio

How Does This Affect Cost Over Five Years?

PC per allied health major

PC per business major

PC per LAS major

PC per college-ready

PC per dev ed student

$30,564

$16,313

$17,246

$19,668

$17,010

Pathway Cost (PC): 2005-06 First Time in College Students after 5 Years

That Depends How We Measure Cost

PC per allied health major

PC per business major

PC per LAS major

PC per college-ready

PC per dev ed student

$135,668

$117,837

$113,351

$74,544

$125,595

Outcome-Adjusted Pathway Cost: 2005-06 First Time in College Students after 5 Years

Cost Benefit Changes Will Be More Incremental

• An increase of 15% in the rate of recent high school graduates completing college level math in their first year might take a 13% graduation rate to 15%

• And lower the cost per completer from $112,000 to $102,000

• Moving to 100% completion of college math by year 2 would take a 13% graduation rate to 27%

• And reduce cost per completer to $76,000

Are All NC HS GPA’s Equally Predictive?

Is Grade Inflation An Issue?

---*--- HS GPA---*--- College GPA

• The CCRC study only got data on HS GPA for 37% of students

• There will be data and matching issues• Colleges vary in collection rates, from

>90% to <40%, with average ~60% • CPCC’s Rate Is Currently About 50%

What If The Student Doesn’t Have A HS Transcript?

Our New Statewide Policy

Students place college level with 2.6 unweighted high school GPA by 2015 Fall ifTranscripts are 5 years old or less and have FRC codes 1-4Colleges will make local policies for out of state transcripts and missing FRC codesColleges may require students with GPA between 2.6-3.0 to take additional math labs for MAT 151 through MAT 171

Future-Ready Core: Course of Study

The Core (22 units)- 4 credits of English- 4 credits of Mathematics- 4 credits of Social Studies - 3 credits of Science- 1 credit of Health/Physical Education- 6 Elective Credits (required)

• 2 credits from CTE, Arts or World Languages • 4 credit Concentration (recommended)

Future-Ready Core Math Sequence

4th Math4

+ +

+or

Algebra I

1

Geometry

2

Algebra II

3

+ +Integrated I

1

Integrated II

2

Integrated III

3

Future-Ready Core

In rare instances, students will be exempted from the Future-Ready Core math sequence. In cases where parents, teachers, counselors, principals and the students believe a different path is appropriate, the student will take the following sequence…

1 2 3 4

Algebra I or Integrated I

Algebra II/Geometry

or Integrated II

Applied Math I

AppliedMath II

Upon Approval Math

Substitution

*N.C.G.S. §115C-81(b) will remain in effect for students with learning disabilities in mathematics that will prevent those students from mastery Algebra I content. This student will be required to take 4 math classes aligned with their goals and abilities.

*

Eligible for UNC System

StatisticsPre-CalculusAP Calculus

Courses such as…

Eligible for comm. college

DraftingEngineeringAccounting I

Courses such as…

Multiple Measures Policy Continued• Students not meeting HS GPA 2.6 will place college level

with:English: ACT Reading 20 OR ACT English 18

SAT Writing 500 OR SAT Critical Reading 500

Math: ACT Math 22 SAT Math 500

• Others will take Diagnostic Placement Tests

*No student should be placed into basic skills by placement test score alone, and without an additional measure

Reviewing Makes A Difference From November 4, 2011 to June 27, 2012, students took 17,592 practice tests

•36% did the review•They went up 11 points on math, 6 on English•46% went up at least one level

•Saving $400,000 in unnecessary remediation

Only 44% of colleges said they provided any practice tests, and “. . . many students did not know they were available” (Venezia, Bracco, & Nodine, 2010).

“It wasn’t a test of what you could do, but about what you could remember from a long time ago.”

“I came straight after high school, and I was doing algebra and geometry. After you are at so high a level, to come to college and get an assessment on just all basics—you’re really not in that mindset anymore. Even right after high school, you’re on to bigger and better problems, so to come back in [and do] fractions— what are fractions?”

Does Reviewing Make A Difference?

Current tests have no projects, no research, no media, no writing process, no revision, no presentations, no formatting, no group work, no lab work, no purpose of interest to the student, no authentic assignments, no active learning, etc.

Diagnostics will help manage learning

Should Placement Tests Themselves Change?

Content Knowledge

Academic SkillsAcademic Behaviors

PersistenceSelf-Efficacy

High ExpectationsSocial Intelligence

MemoryFinancial Resources

Family Support

Adult and college life College Instructor

My Theory Of College Readiness

Let’s Review Our Assumptions

Placing some students into developmental education is a good idea

Placement should be based on the knowledge students have when they enter college

And These Sub-Assumptions• College readiness is about content knowledge• Placement tests predict college success• Placement test items reflect college work• Students understand the importance of the

placement tests• Students prepare for placement tests• Students survive developmental education• Developmental education improves college readiness • Developmental education solves the right problem• A blanket approach to placement can cover the right

students

www.emergingissuescommons.com/voices/37