engineers india limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · engineers india limited buy ......

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Engineers India Limited BUY - 1 of 15 - Friday 11 th April, 2014 This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page. STOCK POINTER Target Price `320 CMP `234 FY16E PE 10.2x Index Details We believe that the conscious decision of Engineers India Ltd (EIL) to diversify its markets beyond the horizons of the sub continent has started paying dividends. The recent order wins are testimony to the same. Given its strong domain expertise in the hydrocarbon and petrochemical verticals and its experience with consultancy and turnkey assignments, augurs well for winning large ticket orders in the global arena. As on December 2013, EIL has an order book of ~`3700 crore (with an order mix of 65:35 for Project Management Consultancy (PMC) and Lumpsum Turnkey Projects (LSTK) respectively). Over the period FY14-16E, we expect revenue to grow at a CAGR of 16.5% to `2,549.5 crore, while earnings are expected to grow at a robust CAGR of 23.3% to `770.4 crore by FY16E. The faster growth in earnings is due to the skewing of the order book in favour of the high margin consultancy business. In addition, the strong balance sheet and regular dividend paying track record is an added attraction. We initiate coverage on EIL with BUY for a target price of `320.1 (14x FY16 earnings) representing a potential upside of ~36.8% over a period of 18 months. At CMP of `233.8 the stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.0x and 10.2x on FY15E & FY16E earnings respectively. Strong overseas order book to spearhead performance EIL’s strategy to diversify globally has started paying dividends. This should not only help in boosting the order book but also improve its revenues and profitability. Accordingly, we expect the order book to grow to `4,765.6 crore by FY16 from current ~`3,700 crore. Sensex 22,629 Nifty 6,776 BSE 100 6,807 Industry CG Scrip Details Mkt Cap (` cr) 8,198 BVPS (`) 75.6 O/s Shares (Cr) 37.1 Av Vol (Lacs) 1.8 52 Week H/L 239/121 Div Yield (%) 3.9 FVPS (`) 5.0 Shareholding Pattern Shareholders % Promoters 70.4 DIIs 10.8 FIIs 6.8 Public 11.9 Total 100.0 EIL vs. Sensex Key Financials (` in Cr) Y/E Dec Net Sales EBITDA PAT EPS EPS Growth (%) RONW (%) ROCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) 2013 2475.3 598.6 632.2 18.8 -1.81 27.5 19.7 12.5 3.0 2014E 1878.8 456.6 506.5 15.0 -19.88 19.4 15.7 15.6 3.8 2015E 2217.0 570.2 604.8 18.0 19.42 20.2 16.8 13.0 3.1 2016E 2549.5 777.4 770.4 22.9 27.37 22.0 19.0 10.2 2.4

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Page 1: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

Engineers India Limited

BUY

- 1 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

ST

OC

K P

OIN

TE

R

Target Price `320 CMP `234 FY16E PE 10.2x

Index Details We believe that the conscious decision of Engineers India Ltd

(EIL) to diversify its markets beyond the horizons of the sub

continent has started paying dividends. The recent order wins

are testimony to the same. Given its strong domain expertise in

the hydrocarbon and petrochemical verticals and its

experience with consultancy and turnkey assignments, augurs

well for winning large ticket orders in the global arena.

As on December 2013, EIL has an order book of ~`3700 crore

(with an order mix of 65:35 for Project Management

Consultancy (PMC) and Lumpsum Turnkey Projects (LSTK)

respectively). Over the period FY14-16E, we expect revenue to

grow at a CAGR of 16.5% to `2,549.5 crore, while earnings are

expected to grow at a robust CAGR of 23.3% to `770.4 crore by

FY16E. The faster growth in earnings is due to the skewing of

the order book in favour of the high margin consultancy

business. In addition, the strong balance sheet and regular

dividend paying track record is an added attraction.

We initiate coverage on EIL with BUY for a target price of

`320.1 (14x FY16 earnings) representing a potential upside of

~36.8% over a period of 18 months. At CMP of `233.8 the stock

is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.0x and 10.2x on FY15E

& FY16E earnings respectively.

Strong overseas order book to spearhead performance

EIL’s strategy to diversify globally has started paying dividends. This should not

only help in boosting the order book but also improve its revenues and

profitability. Accordingly, we expect the order book to grow to `4,765.6 crore by

FY16 from current ~`3,700 crore.

Sensex 22,629

Nifty 6,776

BSE 100 6,807

Industry CG

Scrip Details

Mkt Cap (` cr) 8,198

BVPS (`) 75.6

O/s Shares (Cr) 37.1

Av Vol (Lacs) 1.8

52 Week H/L 239/121

Div Yield (%) 3.9

FVPS (`) 5.0

Shareholding Pattern

Shareholders %

Promoters 70.4

DIIs 10.8

FIIs 6.8

Public 11.9

Total 100.0

EIL vs. Sensex

Key Financials (` in Cr)

Y/E Dec Net

Sales EBITDA PAT EPS

EPS Growth (%)

RONW (%)

ROCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

2013 2475.3 598.6 632.2 18.8 -1.81 27.5 19.7 12.5 3.0

2014E 1878.8 456.6 506.5 15.0 -19.88 19.4 15.7 15.6 3.8

2015E 2217.0 570.2 604.8 18.0 19.42 20.2 16.8 13.0 3.1

2016E 2549.5 777.4 770.4 22.9 27.37 22.0 19.0 10.2 2.4

Page 2: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 2 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Further, the skewing of revenues in favour of high margin consultancy services

should help improve profitability in the long term. We are particularly enthused by the

recent large consultancy orders that the company has bagged in Nigeria ($139 mn

to set up a refinery and polypropylene plant) and Oman ($43 mn to set up a new

petrochemical complex) and that too against stiff competition.

In a number of international projects for which EIL has tendered, it has emerged as

an L1 bidder. Based on the above, we expect significant order flows to be booked

over and above our estimates, representing a significant upside risk to the stock

price movement. We believe that the global markets offer a significant opportunity

for the company to emerge as a major global player, aided by its domain expertise

and competitive pricing.

Valuation

We initiate coverage on EIL as a BUY with a target price of `320.1, representing a

potential upside of ~36.8% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of `233.8 the

stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.0x and 10.2x on its FY15E and

FY16E EPS of `18.0 and `22.9, respectively and on an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock

is trading at a multiple of 3.1x for FY15E and 2.4x for FY16E.

Page 3: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 3 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Company Background

Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering

consultancy company providing design, engineering, procurement, construction and

integrated project management services. It is principally focused on oil & gas and

petrochemical industries. The Company has also diversified into sectors like

infrastructure, water and waste management, solar & nuclear power and fertilizers to

leverage its strong technical competencies and track record. EIL has an impressive

record of executing over 5000 assignments consisting of 400 major projects valued

over $200 bn. It has significant track record across the entire oil & gas value chain,

including 10 green-field refineries, 39 oil & gas processing plants, 40 offshore

process platforms, 42 pipelines and 7 petrochemical complexes.

EIL Services Offered and Business Presence

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 4: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 4 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Key Investment Highlights

Strong overseas order book to spearhead performance

EIL’s strategy to diversify globally has started paying dividends. This should not only

help in boosting the order book but also improve its revenues and profitability.

Accordingly, we expect the order book to grow to `4,765.6 crore by FY16 from the

current ~`3,700 crore. Revenues and earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of

16.5% and 23.3% to `2,549.5 crore and `770.4 crore by FY16. Further, the skewing

of revenues in favour of the high margin consultancy services should help improve

profitability in the long term.

We are particularly enthused by the recent large consultancy orders that the

company has bagged in Nigeria ($139 mn to set up a refinery and polypropylene

plant) and Oman ($43 mn to set up a new petrochemical complex) and that too

against stiff competition. In a number of international projects for which EIL has

tendered, it has emerged as an L1 bidder. Based on the above, we expect

significant order flows to be booked over and above our estimates, representing a

strong upside risk to the stock price movement.

We believe that the global markets offer a potent opportunity for the company to

emerge as a major global player, aided by its domain expertise and competitive

pricing.

EIL experienced sharp slowdown in order intake and order flow

post FY11

Following the sharp slowdown in capital investments since FY12, the order intake

simply dried up, leading to a sharp de-growth in the order book. This led to the order

booking falling sharply from a historic high of `7,500 crore in FY11.

Order Book and Order Inflow have started climbing post 2012

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 9MFY14

` Crore

Order Book Order Inflow

Source: EIL, News Publication, Ventura Research

Page 5: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 5 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Geographical diversification has led to a resurgence in order book

The political paralysis and reluctance of Indian PSUs (despite being cash rich) to

invest, forced EIL to rethink its growth strategy. Banking on its core expertise of

project management services and the hydro carbon domain, the company

strategized a foray into newer geographies to diversify risk.

In line with this strategy, which has started paying off, it has set up offices across the

globe. Currently EIL has a presence in several countries of the Middle East (Bahrain,

Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE), North Africa (Nigeria,

Algeria, Sudan) and South East Asia (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and

Malaysia). Most of the major oil & gas companies located in these regions like

Sonatrach, ZADCO, KNPC, BAPCO, BANAGAS etc. have utilized EIL’s services for

their projects.

In order to expand its operations, EIL continues to identify strategic partners whose

resources, capabilities and strategies are complementary and are likely to enhance

its business operations in these regions. EIL is developing overseas relationships /

JVs with other EPC players for bidding in large projects which will further fuel its

global order inflows.

EIL’s Overseas Presence

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 6: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 6 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

The management is optimistic of increasing its order inflows significantly from

Middle-East, Africa and South East Asia in the coming quarters. Since the lows of

FY13, both its order intake and order book have gained traction, aided by a sharp

rise in the contribution from the overseas order book. The overseas order book has

witnessed dramatic growth from FY10 to 9MFY14.

The current order book stands at `3,700 crore as on Q3FY14 end, which is ~1.5x

FY13 sales of `2,475 crore. In the coming 2-3 quarters EIL is likely to add new order

inflows mainly in the consultancy segment worth more than `3,070 crore, which

should improve its revenue visibility.

Geographical Break-up (FY10) Geographical Break-up (9MFY14)

Overseas15%

Domestic85%

Order Book SizeFY10 - `6200 Crore

Overseas45%

Domestic55%

Order Book Size9MFY14 - `3700 Crore

Source: EIL, Ventura Research Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 7: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 7 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

EIL’s Major Ongoing Projects

EIL's Share

` Cr.

Coker block for Resid Upgradation Project of CPCL, Chennai 670 Aug 2013 Oct 2015

Pipeline and south jetty facilities for IOCL Paradip refinery 630 1Q FY11 1Q FY14

Onshore gas processing complex at Kakinada for GSPC 1900 4Q FY10 4Q FY14

SPM , Pipeline and related facilities for MRPL, Mangalore 730 2Q FY10 May 2014

PFCC, SRU and Polypropylene projects of Phase III refinery project at

Mangalore for MRPL1900 3Q FY08 4Q FY14

Butene-1 project at Panipat for IOCL 150 1Q FY12 4Q FY14

Polypropylene projects for MRPL 860 2Q FY09 2Q FY15

6 MMTPA Integrated Refinery Expansion Project (IREP) at Kochi of

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL)720 1Q FY12 Mar 2016

Dahej Petrochemical Complex for ONGC Petro-additions (OPaL) 470 3Q FY08 3Q FY15

Interceptor project of DJB 130 4Q FY08 3Q FY15

Mallavaram-Bhopal-Bhilwara-Vijaipur Pipeline Project (MBBVPL) for

GSPL & Gujarat India Transco Ltd. (GITL)71 4Q FY12 3Q FY15

Mehsana-Bhatinda pipeline project of total 1600 KMs for GSPL 66 4Q FY12 3Q FY15

Rajiv Gandhi Institute of Petroleum technology (RGIPT) at Rai Bareli

and Sibsagar33 1Q FY10 4Q FY16

Data Centre of UIDAI at Delhi and Bengaluru for Unique Identification

Authority of India (UIADI)37 4Q FY12 3Q FY15

Petrochemical expansion project at GAIL Vijaipur and GAIL Pata plants 420 2Q FY10 2Q FY15

Western onshore redevelopment project for Mehsana, Ankleshwar

and Ahmedabad Assets of ONGC83 2Q FY11 1Q FY18

Assam gas cracker complex at Lepetkata for BCPL 465 2Q FY07 2Q FY15

Facility for fertilizer products in Port Harcourt, River State, Nigeria 29 Mar 2013 June 2016

ShahJalal fertilizer project for BCIC, Bangladesh 13 Apr 2013 Dec 2015

Ammonia Plant in Indonesia for Panca Amara Utama (PAU) 26 July 2013 Mar 2016

Rehabilitation and adaptation of Algiers refinery refinery of

SONATRACH - Algeria80 Mar 2005 4Q FY14

PMC Services for a refinery and polypropylene plant, Nigeria 850 4Q FY14

PMC Services to setup new 800,000 tonne petrochemical complex

adjacent to the Sohar Refinery, Oman245 1Q FY15

PMC Services for Rajasthan Refinery 1200 2Q FY15

Bahrain Consultancy Project 775 2Q FY15

Projects Expected in 1-2 Quarters

Ongoing International Projects

Name of ProjectsExpected date

of Completion

Date of

Commencement

Turnkey Projects

Consulting – Fixed Price Contracts

Consulting – Cost / Rate Reimbursable Contracts

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 8: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 8 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Order book to sales ratio to be maintained at current levels

At the bare minimum, we expect the order book to sales ratio to be maintained at

current levels of ~1.9x of FY14. However, in our opinion, there is a significant upside

risks to our estimates, as EIL’s domain expertise and its competitive bidding has

resulted in EIL emerging as an L1 contender in a number of international projects.

EIL is well placed to benefit from the projected global investments

in the hydrocarbon sector

With global energy demand needs only expected to burgeon, investments are also

expected to get a major boost. And with EIL’s core competence in the hydro carbon

domain coupled with its cost effective services stands the company in good stead to

benefit from this macro environment.

Order book to sales (x)

3.9

3.1

2.8

1.11.3

2.0 1.9 1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

(x)

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Global Energy demand set to increase by 4 bn toe by FY2030

Commensurately global energy investments also set to rise

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

2011 OECD Non OECD

2011 OIl Natutal Gas

Coal Non Fossil

Demand Supply

2030 LevelRennwable

Hydro

Nuclear

Bn.Toe

220

139

105

39

90

132

58

221

60

89

4829

104122

44

0

50

100

150

200

250

China India Middle East Africa Latin America

in US$ bn (2010-2035)

Oil Refining NG Tranmissions & Dist. LNG

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 9: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 9 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

In the domestic market, EIL is eyeing opportunities beyond

traditional segments

EIL further intends to diversify beyond the hydro-carbon segment where there is

growth potential. It has identified areas into which it would like to foray on a project

specific basis viz. oil and gas exploration, power - nuclear and solar, gas based

fertilizer projects, coal to liquid, water and waste management and city gas

distribution.

The XIIth plan investment outlay for the hydrocarbon sector provides a huge

domestic opportunity for EIL in these areas over FY12 - 17E.

However we have not modeled this in our revenue forecast.

Segment wise Consultancy Order Book Bifurcation Segment wise Turnkey Order Book Bifurcation

Hydrocarbon, 66.3%

Chemicals & Fertilisers,

21.8%

Infrastructure, 9.6%

Metal, 1.0%

Others, 1.3%

FY13

Hydrocarbon, 69.2%

Chemicals & Fertilisers,

30.8%

FY13

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Sustained Focus on Hydrocarbon Sector in India

Sector 12th Plan Outlay (`Cr.)

Exploration & Production 283700

Refinery & Marketing 105600

Petro-Chemical 17300

Total 406600

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 10: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 10 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Revenue skewing in favour of consultancy services augurs well

for future profitability

Along with the geographic expansion, we are also witnessing a skewing of revenues

in favour of the high margin (+35%) consultancy services from the erstwhile

concentration of low margin (6-8%) LSTK projects.

We expect the business mix to further shift to 70:30 and 85:15 in FY15E and FY16E,

respectively, in favour of the PMC segment, aided by strong international order

inflows in its PMC segment.

Favourable change in order book mix

35%44%

59%65% 65% 70%

85%

65%56%

41%35% 35% 30%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13 9MFY14 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Consultancy LSTK

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Segment wise Revenue Mix (` Cr.) Segment wise EBIT Mix (` Cr.)

11531232

12571221 1552

2167

16952492

1272658 665

382

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Consultancy LSTK

503 525535

427 543 758

196 245110

46 43 25

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

Consultancy LSTK

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 11: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 11 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Revenue and profitability to experience significant traction

In line with the above, we expect revenues to experience significant traction to

`2,549.5 crore (CAGR of 16.5%) from the current `1,878.8 crore aided by the sharp

spurt in overseas revenues (FY16 revenue share of ~50%) over the forecast period.

Consequently, we expect the profitability of the company to gain traction with EBIT

and PAT expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.3% and 23.3% to `1,123.5 crore and

`770.4 crore, respectively, by FY16.

Thus the strong traction and change in revenue mix in favour of the high margin

consultancy business segment in the coming quarters will aid its blended EBIT

margins improve from ~24% in FY14E to ~30% in FY16E.

Risks and Concerns

Appreciation of the INR could adversely impact the profitability of the

company as its overseas business pie has increased significantly.

Delays in execution of order book and slowdown in new order inflows could

lead to lower revenue than our estimates.

EIL to experience strong growth over the forecast period

Blended margins to improve going forward as LSTK revenues plummet

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

` Crore

Revenue EBIT PAT

24%

18%

24% 24%25%

30%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

(%)

Consultancy LSTK EBIT Margin

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 12: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 12 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

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Financial Performance

In Q3FY14, the net profit remained flat YoY at `135.1 crore from `132.3 crore

recorded in Q3FY13, as the other income increased from `66.9 crore to `108.4 crore

YoY. The EBITDA decreased by 32.6% YoY to `98.9 crore, however, there was an

improvement in the EBITDA margin by 185 basis points to 23.5%. EIL’s total

revenue for Q3FY14 decreased by 30.5% to `420.4 crore as against `604.8 crore

YoY mainly due to a lack of order inflows. The order book has improved YoY from

~`3,300 crore to `3,700 crore in Q3FY14.

Financial Outlook

Significant order inflows from international operations and skewing of the order book

in favour of the high margin consultancy services business should boost overall

revenue and profitability for EIL. Accordingly we expect revenues and PAT to grow

at CAGR of 16.5% and 23.3% to `2,549.5 crore and `770.4 crore respectively by

FY16. EBITDA margins (including other income) are expected to improve by 748

bps to 44.5% by FY16 from the current 37.0% clocked in FY13.

Quarterly Financial Performance (` in crore)

Particulars Q3FY14 Q2FY14 Q3FY13 9MFY14 FY13 FY12

Net Sales 420.4 465.2 604.8 1328.8 2452.2 3898.5

Growth % -30.5 -9.6 -37.1

Total Expenditure 321.5 376.6 473.7 1024.8 1861.2 3190.9

EBIDTA 98.9 88.6 131.1 304 591.0 707.6

EBDITA Margin % 23.5 19.0 21.7 22.9 24.1 18.2

Depreciation 2.7 2.2 2.4 7.4 10.9 19.4

EBIT (EX OI) 96.2 86.4 128.7 296.6 580.1 688.2

Other Income 108.4 82.8 66.9 259.2 316.4 232.2

EBIT 204.6 169.2 195.6 555.8 896.5 920.4

Margin % 48.7 36.4 32.3 41.8 36.6 23.6

Interest 0.0 0.0 0 0 1.3 3.6

Exceptional items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -4.3 -1.9

PBT 204.6 169.1 195.6 555.8 890.9 914.9

Margin % 48.7 36.3 32.3 41.8 36.3 23.5

Provision for Tax 69.5 57.3 63.3 179.5 262.4 278.5

PAT 135.1 111.8 132.3 376.3 628.5 636.4

PAT Margin (%) 32.1 24.0 21.9 28.3 25.6 16.3

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Page 13: Engineers India Limited - ominvestments.com india limited.pdf · Engineers India Limited BUY ... Engineers India Ltd, established in 1965, is a ‘Total Solution’ engineering consultancy

- 13 of 15 - Friday 11th

April, 2014

This document is for private circulation, and must be read in conjunction with the disclaimer on the last page.

Valuation

We initiate coverage on EIL as a BUY with a target price of `320.1, representing a

potential upside of ~36.8% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of `233.8 the

stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 13.0x and 10.2x on its FY15E and

FY16E EPS of `18.0 and `22.9, respectively and on an EV/EBITDA basis, the stock

is trading at a multiple of 3.1x for FY15E and 2.4x for FY16E.

Revenue and Profitability Trend Strong dividend track record

34%31%

24%

37%39% 40%

44%

22%20%

16%

26%27% 27%

30%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

` Crore

Revenue EBITDA RHS (%) PAT RHS (%)

28%

29%

30%

31%

32%

33%

34%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E

`

DPS Dividend Payout Ratio (RHS))

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

P/E Vs. ROCE Order book/Sales Vs. EV/EBITDA

Engineers India Ltd.

L&T

BHEL

Cromption Greaves

VA Tech Wabag

Toyo Engineering

Crop

Shanghai Tunnel Eng

Encor Group

Foster Wheeler

Jacobs Engg

Worley Parsons

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

4 7 10 13 16 19 22

2 Y

rs.

RO

CE

(%

)

2 yrs. Fwd P/E

International Peers

Engineers India Ltd.

L&T

BHEL

Cromption Greaves

Toyo Engineering

Crop

Shanghai Tunnel Eng

Encor Group

Foster Wheeler

Jacobs Engg

WorleyParsons

1.0

6.0

11.0

16.0

21.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

2 Y

rs.

EV

/EB

ITD

A

Order book/Sales (x)

International Peers

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

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P/E

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14

CMP 9X 13X 17X 21X 25X

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

P/BV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14

CMP 2X 2.9X 3.8X 4.7X 5.6X

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

EV/EBITDA

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14

EV 6X 9X 12X 15X 18X

Source: EIL, Ventura Research

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Financials and Projections

Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY 2013 FY 2014E FY 2015e FY 2016e Y/E March, Fig in ` Cr FY 2013 FY 2014E FY 2015e FY 2016e

Profit & Loss Statement Per Share Data (Rs)

Net Sales 2475.3 1878.8 2217.0 2549.5 Adj. EPS 18.8 15.0 18.0 22.9

% Chg. -36.9 -24.1 18.0 15.0 Cash EPS 17.3 13.9 16.6 21.0

Total Expenditure 1876.7 1422.2 1646.8 1772.2 DPS 6.0 5.0 5.4 6.9

% Chg. -41.4 -24.2 15.8 7.6 Book Value 68.1 77.3 89.0 103.8

EBDITA 598.6 456.6 570.2 777.4 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio

EBDITA Margin % 24.2 24.3 25.7 30.5 Debt / Equity (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Income 316.8 279.9 314.7 356.1 Current Ratio (x) 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.4

PBDIT 915.4 736.5 884.8 1133.5 ROE (%) 27.5 19.4 20.2 22.0

Depreciation 11.1 8.8 9.4 10.0 ROCE (%) 19.7 15.7 16.8 19.0

Interest 1.4 4.0 5.0 6.0 Dividend Yield (%) 2.6 2.2 2.4 3.0

Exceptional items -4.5 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 Valuation Ratio (x)

PBT 898.5 718.6 865.4 1112.5 P/E 12.5 15.6 13.0 10.2

Tax Provisions 266.3 212.1 260.6 342.1 P/BV 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.3

Reported PAT 632.2 506.5 604.8 770.4 EV/Sales 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.1

PAT Margin (%) 25.5 27.0 27.3 30.2 EV/EBIDTA 3.0 3.8 3.1 2.4

Adj. PAT 632.2 506.5 604.8 770.4 Efficiency Ratio (x)

Manpower cost / Sales (%) 23.4 32.5 35.5 44.0 Inventory (days) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1

Other opr Exp / Sales (%) 21.4 15.7 13.6 7.8 Debtors (days) 50.7 62.1 62.1 62.1

Tax Rate (%) 29.6 29.5 30.1 30.8 Creditors (days) 206.4 182.5 182.5 182.5

Balance Sheet Cash Flow statement

Share Capital 168.5 168.5 168.5 168.5 Profit After Tax 902.9 723.6 870.4 1117.5

Reserves & Surplus 2126.8 2436.1 2828.7 3328.7 Depreciation 11.1 8.8 9.4 10.0

Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Working Capital Changes (285.5) (391.0) (408.0) (547.3)

Total Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others -286.5 -225.3 -271.3 -348.8

Deferred Tax Liability -237.3 -291.3 -309.2 -328.9 Operating Cash Flow 342.1 116.2 200.5 231.4

Total Liabilities 2058.0 2313.3 2687.9 3168.2 Capital Expenditure 0.3 -5.2 -8.7 -9.2

Gross Block 198.0 206.6 215.8 225.7 Change in Investment -66.1 283.7 265.2 351.1

Less: Acc. Depreciation 144.4 153.2 162.6 172.6 Cash Flow from Investing -65.8 278.5 256.5 341.8

Net Block 53.6 53.4 53.2 53.1 Proceeds from equity issue 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital Work in Progress 135.5 113.6 86.3 56.4 Issue Exp 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Investments 102.1 120.1 141.7 167.6 Dividend and DDT -274.1 -197.1 -212.3 -270.4

Net Current Assets 1766.7 2026.2 2406.7 2891.0 Cash Flow from Financing -274.1 -197.1 -212.3 -270.4

Deferred Tax Assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Change in Cash 2.2 197.5 244.7 302.8

Misc Expenses 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Opening Cash Balance 1757.2 1759.4 1956.9 2201.6

Total Assets 2058.0 2313.3 2687.9 3168.2 Closing Cash Balance 1759.4 1956.9 2201.6 2504.4

Ventura Securities Limited Corporate Office: C-112/116, Bldg No. 1, Kailash Industrial Complex, Park Site, Vikhroli (W), Mumbai – 400079 This report is neither an offer nor a solicitation to purchase or sell securities. The information and views expressed herein are believed to be reliable, but no responsibility (or liability) is accepted for errors of fact or opinion. Writers and contributors may be trading in or have positions in the securities mentioned in their articles. Neither Ventura Securities Limited nor any of the contributors accepts any liability arising out of the above information/articles. Reproduction in whole or in part without written permission is prohibited. This report is for private circulation.