engelder slides, debate with ingraffea jan 2013 dundee ny

7/29/2019 Engelder Slides, debate with Ingraffea Jan 2013 Dundee NY

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Clark67.jpg

1962Terry & the Finger Lakes


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Route 414:

Driving from Raceway to Watkins Glen

1992Terry & the Finger Lakes


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2011

Taughannock Falls:

Filming of PBS-TVs

America Revealed: Electric Nation

Terry & the Finger Lakes


5/30

If Im not right:

shale gas will cause an

investment loss of

untold billions ofdollars?

If Im right: shale

gas will cause a delay

in developing

renewable energy and

add more carbon tothe atmosphere*?

How much gas?

* Note lack of concern about H2O


6/30

Tony Ingraffea with Yoko Ono and son.

Cornell

(NY)

Penn State

(PA)


7/30

Dr. Pielke, a political scientist at the

University of Colorado, calls it iron lawof climate policy: When theres a

conflict between policies promoting

economic growth and policies

restricting carbon dioxide, economic

growth wins every time.

People will make trade-offs, but the one thing that wont be

traded off is keeping the lights on at reasonable cost, hesays. Given the reluctance of affluent Europeans to make

sacrifices, what are the odds of persuading billions of people

in poorer countries to pay more for energy today in return

for a cooler climate at the end of the century?

JOHN TIERNEY, New York Times, January 16, 2012

Iron Law of Climate Policy


8/30

There are three (3) stakeholders with a fondness for their land, which

in some cases has been owned by their families for generations.

This view


9/30

The third stakeholder


10/30

Area Industry & commerce:

A fourth stakeholder


11/30

The paradox is that wine may depend on brine!

Fracked gas (= brine)


12/30

A moral ambiguity: Fracked gas (= brine)


13/30

Its that type of sacrifice that were talking about. Its a necessary sacrifice. Engelder

said he believes Pennsylvanians must sacrifice to maintain their lifestyle. If we want

to talk about sacrifice, then we look to Dimock, he said, referring to the best-known

Pennsylvania site for drilling accidents. This is a very complex industry and there will

be accidents, he said. People expect that level of risk in automobiles.

The Necessary Sacrifice Interview:

i.e., Not Pinedale, UT:

16 pads/mile2


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US auto fatalities

Year DeathsVehicleMiles

Billions

Deaths

/100million

vehicle

miles

PopulationFraction ofPopulation

1971 52,542 1,178 4.46 207,660,677 0.00025302

1972 54,589 1,259 4.33 209,896,021 0.00026008

1973 54,052 1,313 4.12 211,908,788 0.00025507

xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

2008 37,261 2,974 1.25 303,824,640 0.000122640

2009 33,808 306,700,000 0.000110737

2010 32,885 1.11 308,745,538

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

RISK

58,282 KIA

during

Vietnam

War

A

B

Myth #1: Industry does not learn how to reduce risk

Leaking wells are as common now as 20 years ago


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US auto fatalities

Year DeathsVehicleMiles

Billions

Deaths

/100million

vehicle

miles

PopulationFraction ofPopulation

1971 52,542 1,178 4.46 207,660,677 0.00025302

1972 54,589 1,259 4.33 209,896,021 0.00026008

1973 54,052 1,313 4.12 211,908,788 0.00025507

xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx xxx

2008 37,261 2,974 1.25 303,824,640 0.000122640

2009 33,808 306,700,000 0.000110737

2010 32,885 1.11 308,745,538

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_motor_vehicle_deaths_in_U.S._by_year

RISK

58,282 KIA

during

Vietnam

War

A

B

A

B

Sustained CasingVent Flows

http://www.psehealthyenergy.org/


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Boudinot 23968-A

31-123-22941

6000

Trenton/Black River

Utica

Myth #2: There are no industrial well pads in the Finger Lakes Region

In fact, infrastructure is extensive for Trenton-Black River Production

http://www.energyindepth.org/finger-lakes-region-has-been-developing-oil-gas-for-decades/


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Myth #3: Industry is still clueless after doing high volume HF 20,000+ times!

PA currently has > 6,391 active Marcellus wells

http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/marcellusshale/powdermill-compiles-list-of-pa-shale-wells-637445/


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Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012

Mann called it ironic that the shift

from coal to gas has helped bring the

U.S. closer to meeting some of the

greenhouse gas targets in the 1997

Kyoto treaty on global warming. The

gas boom is actually one of a number

of reasons for cautious optimism,

Mann said. Theres a lot of doom andgloom out there. It is important to

point out that there is still time to

address global warning.

Myth #4: Natural gas is not a clean fuel

EPA will require green completions by 2015


19/30

New England Electricity Generation

Wind

requires

backup!

The International Energy Agency said the U.S.

has cut carbon dioxide emissions more than any

other country over the last six years. Kevin Begos, AP,August 17, 2012


20/30

This is shale gas pushing back

coal over a five-year period!


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Buffalo NY = average sunshine 6.047 hour each day.

Reliability factor is 0.252

47 kW in 3,968 ft2

------ Scales to 1.938 acres/MW(not utility-scale generation)

Installed by

Renewable Rochester

with subsidies from

NYSERDA and tax

incentives.

By trading with the

grid (NYSEG), panels

provide 80% of

Lakewoods needs!


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Greenidge is a 161 MW coal-fired electric power plant on a 153 acre site (24/7)

For utility-scale electricity generation, photovoltaic systems require 3 to 10 acres

per MW of generating capacity. So, 485 to 1610 acres of solar panels required!

But the sun does not shine 24/7!

AES Greenidge

Bentek says that power companies plan to retire 175 coal-fired plants

over the next five years.Kevin Begos, AP, August 17, 2012


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1,924 to 6,389 acres of solar panels to replace Greenidge on a 1:1 basis

Solar reliability in western NYS is 25.2%

On a 1:1 replacement of Greenidge withsolar panels could require up to 3% of the

area of Yates County!

This is the scenery that will greet tourists

forever!


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Dutch Hill/Cohocton Wind Farm

50 turbines125 MW

The development of wind power has two main problems. First, the winddoes not blow all the time, so there must be backup power plants (often

fueled by natural gas) ready to turn on instantly if the wind slackens.


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August 2008

November 2012


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If we can manage but

not eliminate the risks

of drilling in the short

term, is it worthexposing a winery along

Seneca Lake to some

level of risk in order to

reduce a perhapsgreater level of risk to a

wheat farm in eastern

Kansas or a fishery in

Washington State

or a retired cop on

a pension in

Staten Island?

A Moral Ambiguity?Or

A Necessary Sacrifice?


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A i t


28/30

Fracking is immoral

Seamus McGraw, author, on seeing this bumper

sticker on a Finger Lakes car:

I wish I had such moral certitude!

A precise answer to

the wrong question:


29/30

Dimock

Water

Moral certitude allows people

to make statements like this:

Fracking kills, and it doesnt

just kill us, Ms. Ono said. It

kills the land, nature and,

eventually, the whole world.

This type of statement is

irresponsible!


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Engelder desklog #41, page 132

I love small towns like these, Meredith gushed from the back seat. My other three

passengers also members of the Ithaca College club Frack Off murmured in agreement

Moral certitude at the collegiate level!

engelder slides, debate with ingraffea jan 2013 dundee ny

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