“And see this ring right here, Jimmy? . . . That’s another time the old fellow miraculously survived some big forest fire.”

ENFA/INSEA FORESTRY…..

Global ForAg ModelFASOM

Regional Farm Type Model

AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC

Stand level ModelPICUS

Regional Forest ModelEURO - FOR

Mod

el fo

r G

HG

Res

pons

e to

Man

agem

ent

EP

ICC

om

mo

n D

atabase

and

Stan

dard

s

• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision

INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK

All

Par

tner

s

Basic Modeling

Processing

Markets

Feed Mixing

Other Resources

Grazing

Labor

Pasture Land

Natl. Inputs

Forestland

Water

Livestock Production

CropProduction

Export

DomesticDemand

Import

Biofuel/GHGDemand

ForestProduction

Cropland

Global ForAg ModelFASOM

Regional Farm Type Model

AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC

Stand level ModelPICUS

Regional Forest ModelEURO - FOR

Mod

el fo

r G

HG

Res

pons

e to

Man

agem

ent

EP

ICC

om

mo

n D

atabase

and

Stan

dard

s

• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision

INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK

All

Par

tner

s

PICUS 2.0

Global ForAg ModelFASOM

Regional Farm Type Model

AROPAj

Farm ModelEFEM-DNDC

Stand level ModelPICUS

Regional Forest ModelOSCAR

Mod

el fo

r G

HG

Res

pons

e to

Man

agem

ent

EP

ICC

om

mo

n D

atabase

and

Stan

dard

s

• Common Database and Data Structure• Harmonized System Boundaries• IPCC GPG and /or FGA Accounting• Consistent Baseline Assumptions• Joint Catalogue of GHG Mitigation Measures• Uniform Validation Criteria• Agreed Sustainability Constraints• Common IT Standards• Standard Scenario Assumptions and Story Lines• Joint Vision

INTEGRATED POLICY FRAMEWORK

All

Par

tner

s

OSCAR linksLink to FASOMDynamic PE of ForAg

OSCARForest Production

Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning

Data IssuesRegion or Grid

DIMA Economic Downscaling

Forestry modeling framework

Supply:•W4E •Wood4ForInd•C storage (soil, biomass)•LUC

Alternatives:•C storage •Wood

•Energy

•management: (harvest, thinning, species)

•potential NPP•Initial state forest and soil

climate

FASOM model-economic optimization of land use

OSKAR model-forestry scenarios

NPP model

•management costs

OSCAR model output for a grid cell area size

(m2)

Biomass Management scenario and predicted production (wood, carbon storage, energy)

1 A1 B1 m1 p1 m2 p3 m3 p3 m4 p4 ...

1 A1 B2

2

.

.

.

•The HRU is divided in biomass classes depending on the initial state of the forest in terms of biomass and species

•Each area of similar biomass and species is modeled as a single forest stand

•A number of management scenarios is simulated for each forest area and class

Density and stand development

•Thinning changes the density initially but also the development with time

•After thinning the density approaches full density (self-thinning limit)

growth thinning

self-thinning

biomass

soil carbon

mortality

decomposition

CO2

density

Forest growth

•Potential NPP controls growth rate and equilibrium biomass

0 50 1000

1

22

0

GN b 1 1( )

GN b 1 0.1( )

GN b 2 0.01( )

GN b 2 1( )

1000 b

biomass

biom

ass

incr

emen

t

0 50 1000

1

22

0

GN b 1 1( )

GN b 1 0.1( )

GN b 2 0.01( )

GN b 2 1( )

1000 b

biomass

biom

ass

incr

emen

t

0 100 2000

50

10099.989

0

B 0.1 1 t 0.01( )

B 0.1 2 t 0.01( )

B 0.1 1 t 1( )

B 0.1 2 t 1( )

2000 ttimest

andi

ng b

iom

ass

0 100 2000

50

10099.989

0

B 0.1 1 t 0.01( )

B 0.1 2 t 0.01( )

B 0.1 1 t 1( )

B 0.1 2 t 1( )

2000 ttimest

andi

ng b

iom

ass

Example: Management Scenario

20%

70%

0%

Biomass Chain – Methanol (Populus et al.) Biomass Gasification Plants of variable size Geographically explicit supply Engineering cost calculations

In cooperation with LTU, BoKu

Example with 5 biofuel plants

CarsFuel (MW)

Bio (ODT/year

)

461500

185 521100

514300

206 580800

1E+06 463 1307600

462300

185 522100

362800

145 409700

Cost in €/GJMEOH

Cost in € / lMEOH

OSCAR linksLink to FASOMDynamic PE of ForAg

OSCARForest Production

Tree Growth Mortality Effects of management -thinning

Data IssuesRegion or Grid

DIMA Economic Downscaling

DIMA_Global Down-scaling Model Exogenous Prices

Outputs (B4E, Timber, Carbon) Inputs (Land, Labor, Capital/Technology)

Land Use Change until 2100 for B1Intensity map: (affected) ha x C-uptake

Existing forestAfforestationDeforestation

Spatial Distribution of GDP

Important inputs to the spatially explicit forestry and regional agricultural model

Necessary information for vulnerability, adaptation and impact assessment

Bioenergy Supply for 2000-2100 A2 (Price < 6$/GJ)

Outlook First Data Supplied to FASOM Constant Check of Species Calibration Resource data appraisal and downscaling Go Global with FASOM4WOOD More Chains (FT Diesel, DME, H2, CCS…) Disturbances & Implement rules from

Stochastic calculus.