Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program

Working Regionally for National Shared Prosperity

3

THE W

ORLD

BAN

K

THE W

ORLD

BAN

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THE W

ORLD

BAN

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Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse

region enjoying steady economic growth and new

development opportunities. A key element in the

continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being

of the population is the smart management of the

region’s energy and water resources.

Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized,

national aspirations, such as food security and reliable

energy services, still drive development decisions. The

competition for energy markets and the anticipated

Development Aspirations of Central Asia

scarcity of water resources have strained relations

among the countries of the region. Climate change

and population growth have the potential to strain

resources and relations further.

The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program

(CAEWDP) recognizes that strengthened cooperation

at the national and regional levels can lead to increased

incomes, poverty reduction, sustainable development,

shared prosperity, and political stability across the region.

Working at the national and regional levels

to manage water and energy resources

can bring:

• Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages • Higher earnings generated by exporting and trading energy• Greater agricultural productivity through more reliable access to water• Improved water quality and reduced land degradation• Better adaptation to climate change and water/hydrological variability • Cost-effective infrastructure development • Enhanced environment for international and private investment for both water and energy

Central Asia is endowed with water and an abun-

dance of rich and varied energy resources—hy-

dropower, oil, gas, and coal. These resources can

support increased agricultural production and have

the potential to exceed domestic energy demand

to supply export markets.

However, water and energy resources across the

region are highly unbalanced and access to them

is uneven. In some cases there is a lack of physical

infrastructure and the outdated systems that exist

are unreliable and inefficient. Some communities

cannot meet citizens’ electricity needs during

certain times of the year, while others lack

adequate water supply.

The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources

Change of Water Availability in Central Asia

EuropeCentral Asia

8.4

5.9

2.55

4.2

10987654321

thousand m3/capita/year

years1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000

Categories of water availability>1.7 significant1.0-1.7 not significant<1.0 shortage

Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a critical value of less than 1.7 th. m3/year. And it is still necessary to an-nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption.

Source: EC IFAS

CHINA

KAZAKHSTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

22,62916,000

4,0802,549

58

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC590

5580

52664,589

2,85180

1,65732

2,6988268

2,5494

51450725412

Total Fossil Fuel MTOECoal MTOECrude Oil MTOEGas MTOEHydro MTOE

MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent

Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian

Development Bank. 2009 2

5

THE W

ORLD

BAN

K

Water

Melting snow from the high peaks of the Himalayan

water tower and precipitation provide the seasonal flows

to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin:

the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the

Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan

Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates

from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and

from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and

the Pamirs in Tajikistan.

Water is a vital but disparate resource across the ba-

sin. In the summer, both the Syr Darya and the Amu

Darya rivers have the potential to provide abundant

low-carbon hydropower for the mountainous Kyrgyz

Republic and Tajikistan. Downstream, these rivers

are vital arteries for livelihoods—providing water for

agriculture and local fisheries, and sustaining envi-

ronmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity

generation across Central Asia.

However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50

percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization

and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and

drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96

percent, compromising both agricultural productivity

and water quality.

Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate

aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and

implement innovative irrigation technologies to ad-

dress these problems and improve food security and

resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead,

population growth and the need for increased agri-

cultural production will continue to strain the region’s

water resources, making smart water management

both nationally and regionally a key factor for the

livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh-

stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million

hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters

for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib-

utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed

improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to

alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a

1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would

result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10

percent increase in water pumping efficiency would

result in regional savings of $188 million per year.

Water Resources in Central Asia

Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia.4

Karakalpakstan 7.9

Dashoguz 6.5

Horezm 4.4(UZB)

Lebap 3.9

Karakum Canal 11

Amu-Bukhara 5.2

UZB 5.3

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0.5

0.6 1.5

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TJK 6.6

TJK 2

KYR 0.1

KYR 3UZB 10

UZB 10

KAZ 10

Great Turkmen Collector(under construction)

Dashoguz Collector(under construction)

Planned collector

Prospective expansionof irrigation

33.3

Rivers of Northern Afghanistan: 6.1

Rivers ofFerghana Valley: 8

20.25.6

5.3

1.5

0.9

1.2

40.2

15

4

2

9(37)

1

1

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Ysik-Kol

Aydar Lake

SarygamyshLake

A r a l K u m

Northern Aral Sea

Golden Age Lake(under construction)

Lake Balkhash

Kara Bogaz Gol

Southern Aral Sea

seasonal lake

Ili

Indus Chen

ab

Tejen

Murgab

Hari Rud

Zarafshan

Syr Darya

Surhandarya

Kafarnigan

Kara Darya

AhangaranNaryn

Panj

Kashkadarya

Chirchik-Charvak

SherabadAmu Darya

Vakhsh

Kokc

ha

Kunduz

K A Z A K H S T A N

T U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

K Y R G Y Z R E P.

T A J I K I S T A N

A F G H A N I S T A NI .R . OFIRAN

C H I N A

Ashgabat

Bishkek

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Kabul

Aralsk

Muynak

0 250 500 1000 km750

© Zoï Environment Network

Irrigated lands

Mountain regions above 2000 metres

Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net

Water discharge(km3/year)

7030105

Average river flow and water intake by canals(km3/year)

Uzbekistan

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

16.8$9,780$203.586%

2,699

5.6$990$6.582%

192

29.8$1,720$51.181%

425

5.2$5,410$35.254%

470

8$880$7.664%

140

Turkmenistan

Tajikistan

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN

Source: World Bank 2012

6 7

© RIC

HA

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THE W

ORLD

BAN

K

Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In

the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,

and Turkmenistan there are significant reserves of oil,

gas, and coal. The upstream countries, Tajikistan and

Kyrgyz Republic, are rich in undeveloped hydropower

potential. The diversity of such a mixed energy system

offers an opportunity to meet all countries’ electricity

needs on a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective

and environmentally friendly manner—taking maxi-

mum advantage of abundant low-cost hydropower

in the summer, and having the reliability of thermal

resources in winter when the cold climate limits hydro-

power supplies.

EnergyCurrent energy systems are becoming less reliable as

the Central Asia power system deteriorates. The re-

gion is trading 90 percent less energy than in the early

1990s. Although new transmission lines linking north

and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improve the

distribution situation, these plentiful resources do not

meet domestic needs and 2 million households across

the region are affected by winter heat and power

shortages per year.

The challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate infra-

structure, provide new generation infrastructure for

energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new

models for energy trade—both within and outside the

five-country community.

Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs

8 9

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10 11

12

THE W

ORLD

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Climate Change in Central Asia

Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions to

climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting

to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average

temperatures in the region have already increased by

0.5°C and are projected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C

by 2030-50. Regionally, climate change is projected to

lead to higher temperatures, changes in precipitation,

increased incidents of flooding and more severe and

prolonged droughts, with corresponding variable water

availability. The region’s vulnerability to climate change is

exacerbated by inefficient resource use and aging infra-

structure, limited enforcement of regulations, and an

inherited severely degraded environment.

Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth

and development in the region, not least of which are

energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also

cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are

currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and

Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather

than an option, for the region.

0

JAN

2,000

400

800

1,200

1,600

Average Seasonal Flow of the Syr Daryawater dischargem3/second

FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

irrigation season

Flow today

Projection 2071-2100(A1B emission scenario)

Source: Shiklomanov 2009

201019901970195019301910

Level of first measurement

Cum

ulat

ive

mas

s ba

lanc

e (5

,000

mm

w.e

. uni

ts)

GolubinSary-TorTuyuksuKarabatkakAbramovUrumqi No. 1

Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Projected to Decrease?

Glacial Melting Accelerating in Central Asia?

Policies and interventions to address climate change

vulnerabilities have the potential to drive innovation,

open up new areas of investment and private sector

activity, as well as promote plant-level efficiencies and

economic savings. For example, a clear plan to align

agricultural policies, develop capabilities of key agri-

cultural institutions, and make needed investments

in infrastructure and on-farm improvements can help

offset risks. In the energy sector, energy efficiency

and diversification provide both immediate economic

benefits and help build long-term climate resilience.

Water demand in both sectors will emphasize the

need for effective national and transboundary water

management.

Source: Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE1592

13

14

In downstream countries (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turk-menistan), the focus will be to improve the productivity and efficiency of irrigation systems, address impacts of climate change, and help build resilience to hydrologic variability.

In upstream countries (Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan), the focus will be to identify and secure new sources of winter energy supply and manage current shortages to reduce the burden on households and associated economic impacts on small business, commercial enterprises, and industry.

The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is building energy and water security by leverag-ing the benefits of enhanced cooperation. It aims to strengthen security through partnerships with all five Cen-tral Asian countries plus Afghanistan in regional initiatives and with development partners in the context of a chang-ing global environment. The program delivers substantial technical expertise, analytics, and diagnostics for informed

decision making and smart investments. Global experience in transboundary water management encourages cross-border dialogue on coordinated management of energy and water resources while strengthening the institutions that manage these resources. Regional dialogue has been significantly bolstered by the transparent knowledge plat-form the program provides.

Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program With initial activities successfully underway, the CAEWDP has established several impor-tant “building blocks.” These activities identified critical infrastructure, institutional and analytical constraints, and helped establish long-term priorities for the program.

Promoting irrigation efficiency

Methodology for prioritizing irrigation investments for water efficiency

Analysis of economic benefits of power trade

Winter energy crisis study and action plan

A basin-level water-energy model based on earth-systems satellite imagery and remote sensing data

Regional climate change knowledge forumRegional

hydrometeorology program

EARLY EFFORTS OF THE CAEWDP AND WORKS IN PROGRESS

“Regional programs offer substantial potential to achieve results on development issues…. Regional

projects have successfully built new assets and protected existing ones in ways expected to benefit all

participating countries.”

World Bank Group Independent Evaluation

Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages Promote and study high-value energy invest-ments that focus on winter energy security,

energy efficiency, trade and accountability, infra-structure planning and institutional development.

Enhance the productive and efficient use of water in agriculture and energy sectors through capacity strengthening, institutional strengthen-

ing, and investment planning.

Improve the understanding of linkages between energy and water at the national and regional

levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeorology and exploring the

future impact of climate change.

Focus 3rd Aral Sea Basin Management Program National investment plans for new and rehabilitated infrastructure for irrigation efficiency

Introduction of new technologies, and efficient delivery of water supply services

Focus Energy-water modeling Regional hydrometeorology Climate vulnerability Energy-water dialogue Knowledge portal (web-based open access data)

The Three Pillars of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP)

Focus Winter energy security including infrastructure planning Energy trade

Energy accountability

Energy efficiency

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Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central AsiaRegional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy and water resources in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as well as Afghanistan. The CAEWDP brings together national and regional governments, civil society organizations, an engaged international panel of advisors, donors and development partners, and international financial institutions such as the World Bank.

The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAEWDP also partners with regional organizations whose mandates are to convene discussions on regional issues, such as the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS). Cooperation from the development and financing communities assists the CAEWDP to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide technical assistance, or contribute funds for core program activities.

A Multi-Donor Trust Fund has been established with cumulative contribu-tions of over US$10 million, including contributions from Switzerland ($3.71 million), the United Kingdom ($5.27 million) and the European Commission ($1.35 million). The trust fund’s Donor Advisory Committee provides strategic guidance to the CAEWDP. The CAEWDP has worked jointly with other development partners on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, including the Swiss Development Corporation (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United States (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation.

The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support liveli-hoods, economic growth, peace, and security in this important region of the world.

© Andrei Shevelov, Almaty, Kazakhstan

For further information, please contact:Daryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager, World Bank, dfields@worldbank.org Abena Akuffo-Akoto, CAEWDP Partnership Specialist, World Bank, aakuffoakoto@worldbank.org