energy transportation a primary sector in the global shipping market peter m swift managing...
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Energy Transportation A Primary Sector in the Global Shipping Market
Peter M Swift
Managing Director, INTERTANKO
Primary energy consumption by fuel
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Oil
Billion tonnes oil equivalents
The World still needs oil and oil tankers
Peter M Swift
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
P0
8
P1
0
Oil products
Crude oil
???
bn tonne-miles
World News
World Oil Consumption 4.0 billion ts per year
Transported by sea 2.6 billion ts per year
> 60% transported by sea
Shipping is cost effective Gasoline price at the pump
0.00
0.30
0.60
0.90
1.20
1.50
USA Japan Germany UK
Long haul freightratesMarketing*
Oil price
Tax
Cost elements making up the gasoline price:
* Refining/marketing and profit. Based on Dec 08/Jan 09 figures from IEA and the Baltic Exchange
US Dollars per litreUS Dollars per litre
Investment in new tankers
• Some $ 327 billion invested since 2000 with the result that 96% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010*
6
22
5159
67 68 73 78 8491 96
94
78
4941
33 32 27 22 169 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
1991
1997
End
02
End
03
End
04
End
05
End
06
End
07
End
08
End
09
End
10
SH/DB/DS
DH
% dwt share:
*Assuming only DB/DS tankers continue to trade beyond 2010, some SH tanker will most probably continue until the age of 25 years old
Watched by:• Regulators• Politicians• Public
Licences to trade rigorously applied by:
• Flag states• Classification Societies• Insurers• Charterers
Monitored by:• Coastal and Port states
Tanker Industry is accustomed to being under the spotlight
Accidental oil pollution into the sea and tanker trade
Source: INTERTANKO/ITOPF/Fearnleys
1000ts spilt
Billion tonne-miles
Record low pollution in 2008: 2,000 ts
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
19701972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 20080
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000Trade in billion Tonne-miles (Fearnleys)
'000 tonnes spilt in tanker accidents (ITOPF)
Oil demand DOWN in 2009
Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-outAll tankers > 25,000 dwt
m dwtm dwt
Assumed balanced market end 2007
-35
-15
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
-02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Max phase out
Deletions
Delveries
Surplus zerotrade growthSurplus 2.5%trade growthSurplus 4%trade growth
year
Removals in addition to phase out (conversions)
Single Hulls trading beyond 2010?
Australia NoChina NoEU NoMexico NoRomania NoS Korea * NoPhilippines * NoUAE * No
* no official note to IMO
Bahamas YesBarbados YesLiberia YesMarshall Isl. YesPanama Flag YesJapan YesSingapore YesIndia Yes
Hong Kong * Yes
*20 years if new on register
Flag/Port States permitting SH trading / port entry beyond MARPOL 2010 deadline – until 25 years of
age or 2015, whichever comes first
United States: OPA90 – 2010,except to LOOP & lightering areas until 2015
SOME of the key challenges for the Tanker industry
• Piracy
• Criminalisation of seafarers
• Maintaining safety and quality in market downturn
• Malacca Straits / South China Seas
• Nigeria / Gulf of Guinea
• Somalia – Gulf of Aden / W Indian Ocean
Piracy
Piracy – Somalia
Piracy – Somalia
Piracy - Somalia
The International Response
• Naval Units deployed – EUNAVFOR, CTF, NATO, National Navies
• MSCHOA Coordination Centre established – (EU) Maritime Security Centre (Horn of Africa)
• UN Security Council Resolutions• IMO - Engaged via UN and Maritime Safety Committee
• International Media attention – Faina, Sirius Star, Maersk Alabama
• International political agenda – US, Europe, Asia, Africa: Donor / Aid programmes being assembled
Piracy - Somalia
Guidance to Industry
Generic: • IMO Circular 623 (Rev 3)
Region Specific:• UN Contact Group: Best Management
Practices
• OCIMF/INTERTANKO/Industry Guide: Piracy - The East Africa/Somalia Situation
Practical Measures to Avoid, Deter or Delay Piracy Attacks
Guidance for Gulf of Aden / Somalia
• Pre-transit:Assess RiskPlan self-defensive measuresRegister with MSCHOA
During transit: IF appropriate, join Group Transit for Gulf of AdenStay 600 nm off coast of Somalia Stay alertReport to UKMTOFollow “best practices”
Piracy - Somalia
Criminalisation of the Seafarer- and unfair treatment
• Criminalisation legislation
- “Find the guilty” culture rather than a thorough investigation of the cause
• Failure to adhere to “IMO/ILO Guidelines on the Fair Treatment of Seafarers in the Event of a Maritime Accident”
Maintaining safety and quality in market downturn
Commitment to maintaining
and continuously improving:
1. Ship Maintenance
2. Recruitment and Training
3. Environmental Performance
Tankers’ Environmental Challenges
Life cycle Building to Decommissioning /recycling
ODS = OzoneDepleting Substances(cooling medium)
NOx, SOx, PMAnnex VI
Sewage
Garbage
WasteManagement
Accidental oil pollution Ballast water
ToxicAntifoulingand Biofouling
CO2/GHG emission
VOC = VolatileOrganicCompounds
Ship Strikes with Cetaceans
Marine Noise Pollution
Thank you 谢谢大家
For more information, please visit:www.intertanko.com
www.poseidonchallenge.comwww.shippingfacts.com
www.maritimefoundation.com