© OECD/IEA, 2016

Energy Technology Perspectives for the Iron and Steel Industry

COP22 Side Event: How to get to a low carbon future:

Solutions for the global steel industry

Eric Masanet, PhD

Energy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Sizing the scale of the challenge… … and its solutions

The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Renewables 32%

Energy efficiency 32%

Fuel switching 10%

Nuclear 11%

CCS 15%2DS

4DS

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The industrial sector accounts for 23% of cumulative CO2 reductions

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But the challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees

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Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Agriculture 2%

Buildings 8%

Industry 33%

Transport 24%

Other transformation 4%

Power 29%

Industry and transport account for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.

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How important is industrial CCS?

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Chemicals, iron and steel, and cement account for 28% of cumulative CO2 emissions captured in the 2DS

Sources of CO2 emissions captured in the 2DS

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Tracking Clean Energy Progress

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Clean energy deployment falls short of the 2DS opportunity

but recent progress in certain technologies is promising

Other renewable power

Buildings

Nuclear

Transport

Appliances and lighting

Energy storage

Industry

Biofuels

Carbon capture and storage

More efficient coal-fired power

Electric vehicles

Solar PV and onshore wind

Technology Status today against 2DS targets

●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track

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Progress with iron and steel CO2 capture

Actual and expected operations dates for projects in operation, construction, and advanced planning

Source: Global CCS Institute

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Direct industrial CO2 emissions and final energy reductions in the 2DS compared with the 6DS

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2

4

6

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12

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2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

CO2 emissions

Cement Iron and steel Pulp and paper

Aluminium Chemicals and petrochemicals Other industries

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050E

J

Final energy

Large reductions in direct CO2 emissions are possible,

but energy use and emissions must be decoupled

The path forward for industry?

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While continued efficiency gains are needed …

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Energy efficiency continues to deliver, but is limited by current technology and scrap availability

Iron and steel aggregated energy intensity

Note: Aggregate energy intensity includes final energy consumption in blast furnaces and coke ovens, as well as the portion of fuel consumption related to thermal energy generation of captive utilities for internal use. Source: Derived from IEA Energy Balances.

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Globally, 6% of the final energy use in iron and steel making could be technically recovered

… expanding spatial boundaries may achieve greater energy savings …

NOTE: Only medium and high temperature IEH sources (>100 degC) and commercial recovery technologies included. SOURCE: Energy Technology Perspectives 2016

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

BOF off-gasrecovery

EAF off-gas thermalrecovery

CDQ

GJ/

t cr

ud

e st

eel

EJ

China India Other Asia Africa and Middle East Non-OECD Latin America Other non-OECD OECD Specific EH recovery potential

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

Sinter cooler exhaustthermal recovery

GJ/

t cr

ud

e st

eel

EJ

Global excess heat recovery technical potential – Iron and steel

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… and more innovative low-carbon technology options are needed.

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Low-carbon iron and steel technology RD&D is promising, but progress must be accelerated

Note: This slide is not intended to provide an exhaustive list. Sketch is not at scale and time milestones are just illustrative.

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Urban transport investments

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

4DS 2DS

2015 2050

USD

tri

llio

n

Internal combustion engine

Electrified

Parking and road

Metro and light rail

Infrastructure

Vehicles

In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles

while public transport travel activity more than doubles

Rethinking materials demand

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32 global publications, 21 different technology areas

Re-endorsed at G7 Energy Ministerial Meeting in May 2016 (Kitakyushu)

New Cycle for Implementation: Near-term actions Regional Relevance Key partnerships (e.g. Finance) Metrics and Tracking

Technology Roadmapping: Bringing stakeholders together

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Low-Carbon Technology Roadmaps

2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

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23% 28%

11%

3%

1%

4% 2% 5%

4%

1% 1%

2%

15%

Final industrial energy use , 2014 (154 EJ) Iron and steel

Chemical and petrochemical

Non-metallic minerals

Non-ferrous metals

Transport equipment

Machinery

Mining and quarrying

Food and tobacco

Paper, pulp and print

Wood and wood products

Construction

Textile and leather

Non-specified (industry)

Global, 2009

SOURCE: IEA Energy Balance. Note: Iron & Steel includes blast furnaces and coke ovens. Chemicals & Petrochemicals includes petrochemicals feedstocks.

Global, 2013

Regional, 2013

CEMENT

CHEMICALS

IRON & STEEL

Workshop 2Q2017?

A global iron and steel industry roadmap?

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