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Energy Technology Perspectives 2017 Catalysing Energy Technology Transformations

Dave Turk, Director (Acting) of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks16 November 2017 – COP23, IETA Pavilion

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Introduction

• Acceleratingtechnologicalprogressstrengthenseconomies,energysecurityandsustainability

• PoliciesandRD&Ddrivedowncostsandimproveperformance

• Cleanenergytechnologiesareprogressing,butfewontrack

• Needtofocusonall technologies;lackofprogressonsomeputsevenmorepressureonothers

• IEA’snewworkondigitalizationandenergybringsnewinsightsinunderstandingtheroleoftechnologiesandinnovation

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Key points of orientation

• GlobalenergymarketsarechangingrapidlyØRenewablessuppliedhalfofglobalelectricitydemandgrowthin2016,andincreaseinnuclearcapacityreachedhighestlevelsince1993

ØGlobalenergyintensityimprovedby2.1%in2016

ØElectriccarsaleswereup40%in2016,anewrecordyear

• TheenergysectorremainskeytosustainableeconomicgrowthØ1.2Bpeoplelackaccesstoelectricity;2.7Bpeoplelackaccesstocleancooking

ØLargestsourceofGHGemissionstoday,aroundtwo-thirdsofglobaltotal

ØLargestsourceofairpollution,linkedto6.5millionprematuredeathsperyear

• ThereisnosinglestoryaboutthefutureofglobalenergyØFast-pacedtechnologicalprogressandchangingenergybusinessmodels

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Global CO2 emissions flat for 3 years – an emerging trend?

IEAanalysisshowsthatglobalCO2 emissionsremainedflatin2016forthethirdyearinarow,eventhoughtheglobaleconomygrew,ledbyemissiondeclinesintheUSandChina.

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Global energy-related CO2 emissions

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GtCO

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Efficiency40%

Renewables35%

Fuelswitching5%

Nuclear6%

CCS14%

How far can technology take us?

Pushingenergytechnologytoachievecarbonneutralityby2060couldmeetthemid-pointoftherangeofambitionsexpressedinParis.

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Efficiency40%

Renewables35%Fuelswitching5%Nuclear6%

CCS14%

Efficiency34%

Renewables15%

Fuelswitching18%

Nuclear1%

CCS32%

GlobalCO2 reductionsbytechnologyarea

2degreesScenario– 2DS

ReferenceTechnologyScenario– RTS

Beyond2degreesScenario– B2DS

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GtCO2 cumulativereductionsin2060

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The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised

Recentprogressinsomecleanenergyareasispromising,butmanytechnologiesstillneedastrongpushtoachievetheirfullpotentialanddeliverasustainableenergyfuture.

EnergystorageSolarPVandonshorewind

Buildingconstruction

NuclearTransport– Fueleconomyoflight-dutyvehicles

Lighting,appliancesandbuildingequipment

Electricvehicles

Energy-intensiveindustrialprocesses

Transportbiofuels

CarboncaptureandstorageMoreefficientcoal-firedpower

●Notontrack

●Acceleratedimprovementneeded

●Ontrack

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Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future

Weneedtomoveawayfromaone-directionalenergydeliveryphilosophy

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Centralised fuel production,power and storage

Renewable energy resources

EV

Co-generation

Smart energysystem control

Distributedenergy resources

Surplus heat

H vehicle2

Systems Integration is essential for a sustainable energy future

Weneedtomoveawayfromaone-directionalenergydeliveryphilosophytoa digitally-enhanced,multidirectionalandintegratedsystemthatrequireslong-termplanningforservicesdelivery.

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The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions

Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW)

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non-PHSStorage PumpedHydropowerStorage

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GW

Globally installed electricity storage (GW)

Positivemarketandpolicytrendssupportedayear-on-yeargrowthofover50%fornon-pumpedhydrostorageButnear-termstorageneedswillremainlargelyansweredbyexistingorplannedpumpedhydrocapacity.

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Can we change the landscape of transport ?

Thetransportationsectoralreadyexperiencestechnologicalchange,butwon’tsheditsoildependencywithoutassertivepolicies.

Vehicle sales and technology shares under different scenariosHeavy-DutyVehicles(millions)Light-dutyVehicles(millions)

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2015 RTS- 2060 B2DS- 20600

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2015 RTS- 2060 B2DS- 2060

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Enhanced buildings efficiency could also improve system flexibility

Efficiencytechnologiescanprovidethesamelevelofcomfortwhilereducingenergydemanddespitedoublingfloorarea.

112EJ157EJ123EJ

2014(123EJ)

RTS2060(157EJ)

B2DS2060(112EJ)

31% 54% 61%Electricity ElectricityElectricity

37%

24%

3%

5%

Electricity31%

Fossilfuels Traditionalbiomass Renewables Other Electricity

Energyuseinthebuildingssectorunderdifferentscenarios

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We need to produce materials more sustainably

Effectivepoliciesandpublic-privatecollaborationareneededtoenableanextensiveroll-outofenergyandmaterialefficiencystrategiesaswellasasuiteofinnovativetechnologies.

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RTS B2DS

GtCO2

EJ

Otherindustries

Pulpandpaper

Aluminium

Chemicalsandpetrochemicals

Cement

Ironandsteel

DirectCO2emissions

EnergyuseanddirectCO2 emissionsinvariousindustrialsectorsunderdifferentscenarios

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CCSishappeningtoday,CCSishappeningtoday,butneedstoberampeduphundredsoftimestoachievelong-termgoals.TheroleforCCSvariesbasedonlocalcircumstances.

A challenging task ahead for CCS

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AmountofCO2 capturedundervariousscenarios

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MtC

O₂

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USD(2016)billion

Private Public Top3firms

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USD(2016)billion

Private Public Top3firms

Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost

GlobalRD&Dspendinginefficiency,renewables,nuclearandCCSplateauedat$26billionannually,comingmostlyfromgovernments.

GlobalcleanenergyRD&Dspending

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USD(2016)billion

Private Public Top3firms

MissionInnovationMission

Innovation

Top3ITcompanyR&Dspenders

GlobalRD&Dspendinginefficiency,renewables,nuclearandCCSplateauedat$26billionannually,comingmostlyfromgovernments.

MissionInnovationcouldprovideamuchneededboost.

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Conclusions of the ETP 2017

• Earlysignspointtochangesinenergytrajectories,helpedbypoliciesandtechnologies,butprogressistooslow

• Anintegratedsystemsapproachconsideringalltechnologyoptionsmustbeimplementednowtoaccelerateprogress

• Eachcountryshoulddefineitsowntransitionpathandscale-upitsRD&Danddeploymentsupportaccordingly

• Achievingcarbonneutralityby2060wouldrequireunprecedentedtechnologypoliciesandinvestments

• Innovationcandeliver,butpoliciesmustconsiderthefulltechnologycycle,andcollaborativeapproachescanhelp

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