energy systems. carbon/capita trends in carbon-intensity and energy-intensity

ENERGY SYSTEMS

Role of Energy in Human Environmental Impact

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Lead Flow [HDI =15x]*

Oil Flow to Oceans [10x]

Cadmium Flow [8x]

SO2 Flow [1.4x]

Methane Stock [1.1x]

Mercury Flow [0.7x]

Nitrous Oxide Flow [0.40x]

Particle Flow [0.25x]

CO2 Stock [0.25x]

Share of Human Disruption Caused by Energy Production and Use

*[Human Disruption Index = ratio of human-caused impact to natural background flows or stocks (after Holdren, Scientific American , 1990)]

Carbon/Capita

Trends in Carbon-Intensity and Energy-Intensity

Industry32%

Buildings36%

Transportation32%

Machine drive and electrolytic 32%

Steam 27%

Process heat 19%

HVAC and light 6%Off-highway oil 7%

Feedstocks 6%Lease and plant 3%

Nonoil-based 2%Rail, marine 7%Aircraft 14%Heavy trucks 14%

Light trucks 20%

Automobiles 43%

Water heat 9%Lights 14%

Cooling 14%

Appliances 20%

Space heat 43%

U.S. Carbon Emission by Sector and End Use(Source: U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment)

Buildings Industry

Transportation

Comparative Energy End-use Profiles

Unit Conversions1. Convert raw energy to common units (millions of BTUs, MBTU):

• a. _________kWh x 3413 BTU/kWh x 1 MBTU/1,000,000 BTU

• b. _________Therms x 100,000 BTU/therm x 1 MBTU/1,000,000 BTU

• c. _________Gallons Oil x 138,095 BTU/gallon x 1 MBTU/1,000,000 BTU

d. _________ Gallons LPG x 95,500 BTUs/gallon x 1 MBTU/1,000,000 BTU

2. Convert MBTU of energy to greenhouse-gas emissions (pounds of carbon dioxide, CO2)

• a. 1.2 lbs CO2/kWh x 1 kWh/0.003413 MBTU x ______ MBTU of electricity

• b. 12 lbs CO2/therm x 1 therm/0.1 MBTU x ______ MBTU of natural gas

• c. 22.384 lbs CO2/gallon oil x 1 gallon/0.138095 MBTU x ______ MBTU of heating oil

• d. 12.805 lbs CO2/gallon LPG x 1 gallon/0.0955 MBTU x ______ MBTU of LPG

Energy Paradigms

CONCEPT SUPPLY-SIDE PARADIGM DEMAND-SIDE PARADIGM

Services More energy supply/use More efficient use of energy

Exploration Drilling, mining, etc. Energy auditing, etc.

Resource Base Existing energy resources Technically avoidable energy use

Reserves Economically recoverable energy Economically reducible demand

Unit Cost $/BTU supplied $/BTU saved

Environment Emissions Avoided emissionsPlanning Forecasts: Supply and demand

weakly linked, usually only bymodest incorporation of p riceimpacts

Scenarios: Supply and demandlinked explicitly via technologyassessments on both sides of themeter

Efficiency vs ConservationAnnual Energy Use

Top-Mounted Auto-Defrost Refrigerators Models in AHAM Directory Compared to DOE Standards

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

10 15 20 25 30 35

Adjusted Volume (cu.ft.)

An

nu

al E

ner

gy

Use

(kW

h/y

r)

June1986

June1991

June1994

2002

Energy Star2004(15%less)

1990 standard

1993 standard

2001 standard

2004 Energy

Low-E windowsSavings:

25-60% energy“Alaska Pipeline”

13%

DishwasherSavings:

13% energy$0.6 billion

1.1 megatons CO2

FridgeSavings:


2.2 megatons CO2

Compact FluorescentSavings:


21 megatons CO2

Dimmable Std FluorescentSavings:

90% energy

Flat Screen DisplaySavings:

50% energy$11 billion

31 megatons CO2

Leaking ElectricitySavings:

Up to 90% energy$4 billion

10 megatons CO2

Leaky DuctsSavings:

30% on average

Surprise

Geoth.

Solar

Biomass

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

Gas

Oil & NGL

Coal

Trad Bio.0

500

1000

1500

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

exajoules

Shell Oil’s “Sustained Growth” Global Energy Scenario

Energy Efficiency Yields High Returns on Investment

The $230B Global Lighting Energy Bill

The $230B Global Lighting Energy Bill

… of which ~$25B is fuel … or 1.4 million barrels of oil/day (~ Brazil, Algeria, Libya, or Indonesia, or 50% of Iraq’s production)

Non-Electrified Population: mid-1990s

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

RwandaBurundi

Burkina FasoMalawi

MaliGuineaNepalHaiti

CameroonSolomon Islands

Lao PDRBolivia

PakistanGuatemala

HondurasDominican Republic

IndiaPeru

NicaraguaParaguay

El SalvadorCote d'Ivoire

DominicaJamaicaPanama

ChinaColombia

EcuadorThailand

BelizeBrazil

TunisiaNigeria

VenezuelaMexico

UruguayCosta Rica

MalaysiaChile

ArgentinaTrinidad and Tobago

Barbados

Excluding China, population is growing faster than electrification, e.g. 4-x faster in Sub-Saharan Africa

Other issues: literacy, safety, women’s work, indoor air quality, subsidy, scarcity, price volatility

The 1.6 billion non-electrified doesn’t include those facing power outages

Ghana“We will make electricity so cheap that only the rich will burn candles” - Thomas Edison

Photos: Rick Wilk

There are more non-electrified households today than the total numberof households in Edison’s time.

Demographics

3 liters/month32%

4 liters/month38%

1 liter/month3%

7 liters/month1%

6 liters/month2%

5 liters/month10%

8 liters/month1%

2 liters/month13%

Lighting Kerosene Use (liters/month)

[188 Households: Nepal]

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181

Lighting Equity

Although one in three people obtain light with kerosene and other fuels, representing about 15% of global lighting costs, they receive only 0.2% of the resulting lighting energy services.

Electric v. Fuel-Based Lighting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Population(6 billion)

EnergyCost ($230

billion)

EnergyServices(12,100Tlmh)

Electricity Fuel

Energy Services; Energy & EquityAn un-electrified household consumes as many lumens over an entire year as a single electric light

produces in 10 hours

Energy Services Comparision: White Simple

White LED light versus Hurricane Lamp LED Hurricane

Lamp Units Lamp Units Comment

Assumptions

Energy price 0.10 $/kWh of electricity

0.50 $/liter of kerosene

Rate of energy consumption 1 Watts 0.03 liters/hourEnergy services provided 40 lumens 0.25 10 lumens LED provides 4-times more light

outputEnergy Analysis

Electricity 10.47 MJ/kWhKerosene 37.6 MJ per liter

of kerosene

Energy use per hour 0.01047 MJ 108 1.128 MJMJ per service 0.3 MJ/kLm 431 112.8 MJ/kLm Kerosene lamp requires 430-

times more energy to deliver a unit of services (lumens)

Economic Analysis

Cost for equal service $0.0025 $/kLm-h 600 $1.50 $/kLm-h Kerosene lamp costs approximately 600-times more than LED to deliver the same level of energy service

Ratio (Kero/

LED)

Fig 9. Comparative Illumination Levels

0 50 100 150 200

60W Incandescent Lamp (grid-connected)

Flashlight (alkaline battery)

15W Compact Fluorescent Lamp (grid-connected)

6W Compact Fluroescent Lantern (alkalinebattery)

6W Compact Fluorescent Lantern(solar/NiMh battery)

Simple Kerosene Lamp (wick)

Hurricane Kerosene Lamp (wick)

Pressurized Kerosene Lamp (mantle)

LED: 3x0.1W Flashlight (solar/NiMhbattery)

LED: 1W Luxeon with Optics (solar/NiMhbattery)

Lux (horizontal, one meter from source)

Ownership Cost Comparison(No amortization of first cost)

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350

60W Incandescent Lamp (grid-connected)


15W Compact Fluorescent Lamp (grid-connected)

6W Compact Fluroescent Lantern (alkalinebattery)

6W Compact Fluorescent Lantern(solar/NiMh battery)


Hurricane Kerosene Lamp (wick)

Pressurized Kerosene Lamp (mantle)

LED: 3x0.1W Flashlight (solar/NiMhbattery)

LED: 1W Luxeon with Optics (solar/NiMhbattery)

US Dollars

First Cost ($)

Operating Cost($/year)

Energy Services & Costs

Stanford-LBNL Prototype• Est. manufactured cost (before markups) ~$10 [ses.stanford.edu]• Annual Operating cost (replacement batteries) $3 ($15 for kerosene)

LED Payback Time: 0.5-2 Years

LBNL Analysis

Lighting Systems for Developing Countries: Comparative Cost of Ownership

(Payback time for LEDs corresponds to point that curve passes below that of comparison system)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Months from Purchase

Cumulative Cost of Ownership

(US$)

LED: 1W Luxeon with Optics(solar/NiMh battery)

LED: 3x0.1W Flashlight(solar/NiMh battery)

60W Incandescent Lamp(grid-connected)



Hurricane Kerosene Lamp(wick)

Pressurized Kerosene Lamp(mantle)

6W Compact FluroescentLantern (alkaline battery)

15W Compact FluorescentLamp (grid-connected)

6W Compact FluorescentLantern (solar/NiMh battery)

energy systems. carbon/capita trends in carbon-intensity and energy-intensity

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