Energy Sustainability and

Climate Change

(Contribution to CCTC2013 Plenary: Path Ahead)

Marc A. Rosen

Past-President, Engineering Institute of Canada

Professor, Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science University of Ontario Institute of Technology

Oshawa, Ontario, Canada

Motivation

Sustainability

Energy sustainability

Assessment: present/future

SUSTAINABILITY

Sustainability

Vision

Engineering for a prosperous, safe and sustainable Canada

Importance

ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY

Energy Sustainability

Provision of energy services in a manner that is

• Sufficient for needs

• Affordable

• Environmentally benign

• Acceptable

• And so on

Energy Sustainability

Requirements

1. Sustainable energy sources

Energy Sustainability

Requirements

1. Sustainable energy sources

2. Appropriate energy carriers

Energy Sustainability

Requirements

1. Sustainable energy sources

2. Appropriate energy carriers

3. Increased efficiency

System efficiency Exergy efficiency

Energy Sustainability

Requirements

1. Sustainable energy sources

2. Appropriate energy carriers

3. Increased efficiency

4. Reduced environmental impact

Energy Sustainability

Requirements

1. Sustainable energy sources

2. Appropriate energy carriers

3. Increased efficiency

4. Reduced environmental impact

5. Satisfy other facets of sustainability

ASSESSMENT:

PRESENT/FUTURE

Context

Key Output

Published 2012

5 year project

1900 pages

300 authors

25 teams

200 reviewers

Assesses present

Assesses future (40 pathways)

Global to local approaches

GEA Knowledge Clusters

1. Major global issues and energy

• Challenges

2. Energy resources and technological options

• Components of future energy systems

3. Describing possible sustainable futures

• Combine components for sustainable systems

4. Realizing energy for sustainable development

• Policies to realize sustainable systems

Example Knowledge Module:

Energy End-Use – Industry Analysis of industrial

energy use trends

Consumption & opportunities: cross-cutting end uses

Consumption & opportunities: key sectors

Thermodynamic limits

Realizing opportunities: policies & programs

18

External Funding Partners

●Austrian Development Agency (ADA)

●Climate Works Foundation

●Deutsche Gesellschaft für

Internationale Zusammenarbeit

GmbH

● First Solar Inc.

●Global Environment Facility (GEF)

through UNIDO

● Italian Ministry for the Environment

and Territory

●Petrobras

●Research Council of Norway

●Swedish Research Council for

Environment, Agricultural Sciences

and Spatial Planning (FORMAS)

●Swedish Research Council for

Environment, Agricultural Sciences

and Spatial Planning (FORMAS) and

Swedish Energy Agency

●United Nations Development

Programme (UNDP)

●United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP)

●United Nations Foundation (UNF)

●United Nations Industrial

Development Organization (UNIDO)

●US Environmental Protection Agency

(US EPA)

●US Department of Energy (DOE)

through Global Environment and

Technology Foundation

●World Bank/ESMAP

●World Energy Council (WEC)

GEA Council ● Ged Davis – GEA Co-President

● José Goldemberg – GEA Co-President; Professor Emeritus, University of São Paulo

● Michael Ahearn, First Solar Inc.

● Dan Arvizu, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

● Monique Barbut, Global Environment Facility (GEF)

● Corrado Clini, Italian Ministry for the Environment and Territory

● Robert Corell, Global Environment and Technology Foundation (GETF)

● Fei FENG, Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council of China, China

● Christoph Frei, World Energy Council (WEC)

● Irene Giner-Reichl, Foreign Ministry of Austria

● Pavel Kabat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

● Tomas Kåberger, formerly Swedish Energy Agency

● Olav Kjørven, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

● Manfred Konukiewitz, German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

● Celso Fernando Lucchesi, Petrobras

● Kirit Parikh, formerly Indian Planning Commission and Integrated Research and Action for Development (IRADe)

● Jamal Saghir, World Bank

● John Schellnhuber, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; and International Council for Science (ICSU)

● Nikhil Seth, Division for Sustainable Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA)

● Achim Steiner, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

● Björn Stigson, formerly World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD)

● Claude Turmes, Member of the European Parliament

● Robert Watson, Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia

● Anders Wijkman, formerly Member of the European Parliament

● Timothy E. Wirth, United Nations Foundation

● Kandeh Yumkella, United Nations Industrial Development Organization

● Zhou Dadi, Energy Research Institute, China

GEA Executive Committee ● Thomas B. Johansson – (Co-Chair) Lund University; Sweden

● Anand Patwardhan – (Co-Chair) Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India

● Nebojsa Nakicenovic – (Director) IIASA and Vienna University of Technology; Austria

● Luis Gomez-Echeverri – (Associate Director) IIASA; Colombia

● Stephen Karekezi – African Energy Policy Research Network; Kenya (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)

● Susan McDade - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP); United States (Ch2: Energy, Poverty, and Development)

● He Kebin – Tsinghua University; China (Ch3: Energy and Environment)

● Johan Rockström – Stockholm Environment Institute; Sweden (Ch3: Energy and Environment)

● Lisa Emberson Stockholm Environment Institute, University of York, United Kingdom (Ch3: Energy and Environment)

● Kirk Smith – University of California, Berkeley; United States (Ch4: Energy and Health)

● Aleh Cherp – Central European University; Belarus (Ch5: Energy and Security)

● Kurt Yeager – Electric Power Research Institute; United States (Ch 6: Energy and Economy)

● Hans-Holger Rogner – International Atomic Energy Agency; Germany (Ch7: Energy Resources and Potentials)

● Rangan Banerjee – ITT Bombay; India (Ch8: Energy End-Use: Industry)

● Suzana Kahn Ribeiro – Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; Brazil (Ch9: Energy End-Use: Transport)

● Diana Urge-Vorsatz – Central European University; Budapest (Ch10: Energy End-Use: Buildings)

● Wim Turkenburg – Utrecht University; Netherlands (Ch11: Renewable Energy)

● Li Zheng – Tsinghua University; China (Ch12: Fossil Energy)

● Eric Larson – Princeton University and Climate Central; United States (Ch12: Fossil Energy)

● Sally Benson – Stanford University; United States (Ch13: Carbon Capture and Storage)

● Frank von Hippel – Princeton University; United States (Ch14: Nuclear Energy)

● Robert Schock – World Energy Council and Center for Global Security Research; United States (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)

● Ralph Sims – Massey University; New Zealand (Ch15: Energy Supply Systems)

● Anand Patwardhan – Shailesh J Mehta School of Management, IIT-Bombay; India (Ch16: Transitions in Energy Systems)

● Keywan Riahi – IIASA; Austria (Ch17: Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development)

● Arnulf Grubler – IIASA and Yale Univ.; Austria (Ch18: Urbanization Energy Systems; and Ch24: Policies for Technology Innovation)

● Abeeku Brew-Hammond – Kwame Nkrumah Univ. of Science & Tech.; Ghana (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)

● Shonali Pachauri – IIASA; India (Ch19: Energy Access for Development)

● Suani T. Coelho – CENBIO-Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass; Brazil (Ch20: Land and Water: Linkages to Bioenergy)

● Joyashree Roy – Jadavpur University; India (Ch21: Lifestyles, Well Being and Energy)

● Mark Jaccard – Simon Fraser Univ.; Canada (Ch22: Policies for Energy System Transformations: Objectives and Instruments)

● Daniel Bouille – Bariloche Foundation; Argentina (Ch23: Policies for Energy Access)

● Lynn Mytelka – UNU-MERIT; Canada (Ch25: Policies for Capacity Development)

Authors and Editors of GEA (1 of 2) Jean Acquatella

Adeola Adenikinju

Lawrence Agbemabiese

Olivia Agbenyega

Astrid Agostini

Francisco Aguayo

Roberto F. Aguilera

Gilbert Ahamer

John Ahearne

Hugo Altomonte

Markus Amann

Laura Diaz Anadon

Per Dannemand Andersen

Cristina L. Archer

Doug Arent

Robert Ayres

Christian Azar

Ines Azevedo

Xuemei Bai

Kalpana Balakrishnan

Rangan Banerjee

Douglas F. Barnes

Jennie Barron

Igor Bashmakov

Timothy Baynes

Morgan Bazilian

Kamel Bennaceur

Sally M. Benson

Ruggero Bertani

S.C. Bhattacharya

Dan Bilello

Gunilla Björklund

Brenda Boardman

Daniel H. Bouille

Grant Boyle

Sylvia Breukers

Abeeku Brew-Hammond

Ian Bryden

Thomas Buettner

Stan Bull

Matthew Bunn

Colin Butler

Zoë Chafe

Aleh Cherp

Helena Chum

Leon Clarke

Suani T. Coelho

Yu Cong

Peter Cook

Robert Corell

Felix Creutzig

Daniel Curtis

Touria Dafrallah

Ogunlade Davidson

John Davison

Felix Dayo

Heleen de Coninck

Luiz Alberto de Melo Brettas

Adilson de Oliveira

Gabriel de Scheemaker

Paulo Teixeira de Sousa Jr.

Frank Dentener

Shobhakar Dhakal

Anatoli Diakov

Ming DING

Michael Doherty

Anne-Maree Dowd

Carolina Dubeux

Maurice B. Dusseault

Lisa Emberson

Karl-Heinz Erb

Nick Eyre

Andre Faaij

Ian Fairlie

Karim Farhat

Sara Feresu

Maria Josefina Figueroa

Carolyn Fischer

Brian Fisher

David J. Fisk

Theo H. Fleisch

Tira Foran

Roger Fouquet

Junichi Fujino

Sabine Fuss

Luc Gagnon

Kelly Gallagher

Hu Gao

Ibrahim Abdel Gelil

Dolf Gielen

Asmerom Gilau

Stephen Gitonga

Robert Goldston

Andreas Goldthau

Peter Graham

Arnulf Grubler

Helmut Haberl

Richard Haeuber

Keisuke Hanaki

Maureen Hand

Danny Harvey

Marianne Haug

Kebin HE

Marko Hekkert

Fancisco Hernandez

Sergio Tirado Herrero

Edgar Hertwich

Conrado Heruela

Kevin Hicks

Frank von Hippel

Monique Hoogwijk

Richard Hosier

Larry Hughes

Alison Hughes

Jane Hupe

Toshiaki Ichinose

Morna Isaac

Mark Jaccard

Staffan Jacobsson

Jill Jäger

Martin Jakob

Kathryn Janda

Gilberto Jannuzzi

Jaap Jansen

Jessica Jewell

Yi Jiang

Kejun Jiang

Eberhard Jochem

Thomas B. Johansson

Francis X. Johnson

Arthur Johnson

Ian Johnson

Suzana Kahn Ribeiro

Mikiko Kainuma

Daniel Kammen

Shinji Kaneko

Stephen Karekezi

Anders Karlqvist

Tadahiro Katsuta

James E. Keirstead

Francis Kemausuor

René Kemp

Ruud Kempener

John Kimani

Osamu Kimura

Patrick Kinney

Bernadette Kiss

Tord Kjellstrom

Zbigniew Klimont

Shigeki Kobayashi

Peter Kolp

Christian Kornevall

Reza Kowsari

Diana Kraft

Fridolin Krausmann

Wolfram Krewitt†

Volker Krey

Sivanappan Kumar

Rattan Lal

Hans Larsen

Eric Larson

Rik Leemans

Sylvie Lemmet

Philippe Lempp

Manfred Lenzen

Zheng LI

Vladimir Likhachev

Guangjian LIU

Jeff Logan

Oswaldo Lucon

John Lund

Nora Lustig

Jordan Macknick

Mili Majumdar

François Maréchal

Omar Masera

Denise L. Mauzerall

Peter McCabe

David McCollum

Charles McCombie

Susan McDade

Aimee T. McKane

Thomas McKone

James E. McMahon

Anthony McMichael

Michael McNeil

Mark Mehos

Tim Merrigan

Jacqui Meyers

Alan Miller

Sevastianos Mirasgedis

Catherine Mitchell

Vijay Modi

Joachim Monkelbaan

José Roberto Moreira

Gragner Morgan

Siwa Msangi

Adrian Muller

Mohan Munasinghe

Luis Mundaca

Shuzo Murakami

Iyngararasan Mylvakanam

Lynn Mytelka

Yu Nagai

Koji Nagano

Hitomi Nakanishi

Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Lena Neij

Gregory Nemet

George L. Nicolaides

Hans Nilsson

Aleksandra Novikova

Victoria Novikova

Anastasia O’Rourke

Virginia Sonntag O'Brien

Michael Ohadi

Marina Olshanskaya

Shonali Pachauri

Saptarshi Pal

Shamik Pal

Debajit Palit

Riddhi Panse

Mahesh Patankar

Anand Patwardhan

Ksenia Petrichenko

Hector Pistonesi

Christoph Plutzar

Gisela Prasad

Ndola Prata

Lynn Price

Pallav Purohit

Krishnan S. Rajan

M.V. Ramana

Andrea Ramirez

Saumya Ranjan

Anand Rao

Shilpa Rao

Amitav Rath

Rob Raven

Xiangkun Ren

Keywan Riahi

Kamal Rijal

Johan Rockström

Hans-Holger Rogner

Mathis L. Rogner

Marc A. Rosen

Carolina Rossini

Joyashree Roy

Lau Saili

Constantine Samaras

Gerd Sammer

Jayant Sathaye

David Satterthwaite

Deger Saygin

Jules Schers

Christoph Schilling

Jürgen Schmid

Mycle Schneider

Sabine Schnittger

Robert N. Schock

Niels B. Schulz

Seongwon Seo

Ali Shafiei

Nilay Shah

Ram M. Shrestha

Priyadarshi R. Shukla

Dale Simbeck

Ralph Sims

Wim Sinke

Kirk R. Smith

Aaron Smith

Adrian Smith

Ricardo Soares de Oliveira

Youba Sokona

Weiwei Song

Benjamin Sovacool

Ashutosh Srivastava

Leena Srivastava

Kjartan Steen-Olsen

Julia Steinberger

Lars Strupeit

Terry Surles

Tatsujiro Suzuki

Alice Sverdlik

Minoru Takada

Richard Taylor

Theodore Thrasher

Robert Thresher

Julie Tran

Upendra Tripathy

Craig Turchi

Wim Turkenburg

Neha Umarji

Diana Ürge-Vorsatz

Eric Usher

Sergey Vakulenko

Harry Vallack

Rita van Dingenen

Denis van Es

Bas van Ruijven

Wilfried van Sark

Oscar van Vliet

Detlef P. van Vuuren

Geert Verbong

Preeti Verma

David Victor

Eugene Visagie

Seppo Vuori

Horst Wagner

Rahul Walawalkar

Njeri Wamukonya†

Jim Watson

Sandy Webb

Jan Weinzettel

Helga Weisz

John Weyant

John T. Wilbanks

Paul Wilkinson

Robert H. Williams

Charlie Wilson

Rosemary Wolson

Ernst Worrell

Iain Wright

Vladimir Yakushev

Kenji Yamaji

Kurt Yeager

Suyuan Yu

Hisham Zerriffi

Qiang Zhang

Xiliang Zhang

Li Zhou

Ji Zou

Authors and Editors of GEA (2 of 2)

The Global Energy Challenge

● Major transformations are needed for future

energy systems to be affordable, safe, secure, and

environmentally sound

● Urgent need for a sustained and comprehensive

strategy to help resolve the following challenges:

Providing clean and affordable energy services for all

Increasing energy security for all nations, regions,

communities

Reducing GHG emissions to limit global warming to

less than 2 C above pre-industrial levels

Reducing indoor and outdoor air pollution from fuel

combustion and its impacts on human health

Reducing the adverse effects and ancillary risks

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2030 Energy Goals

● Universal access to modern energy

● Double rate of energy efficiency

improvement

● Double renewable share in final energy

Aspirational & ambitious but

achievable

UN General Assembly designation

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass Microchip

Commercial

aviation

Television

Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam

engine

Nuclear

energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Present

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Savings

Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,

and behavior)

~40% improvement by 2030

~35% renewables by 2030

Oil phase-out (necessary)

Nuclear phase-out (choice)

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Example Pathway 1 (no CCS, no nuclear)

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

EJ

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200 Other renewables

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Biomass Microchip

Commercial

aviation

Television

Vacuum

tube Gasoline

engine Electric

motor Steam

engine

Nuclear

energy

Biomass

Coal

Renewables

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Global Primary Energy

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

Example Pathway 2

World Energy Investments 2010

Industrialized

55%

Developing

45% Demand (Energy components)

Oil

Gas

Coal

Electricity Transmission/Distr.

Fossil Electricity

NuclearRenewable Electricity

Other conversion

Upstream:

Fossil Fuels 30%

Electricity 40%

Demand > 25%

300-1700 billion

US $1.3 trillion (incl. demand)

● Policies to enable rapid transformation of

energy systems must provide effective

incentives and strong signals for deployment at

scale of efficient technologies and systems that

foster sustainable development

GEA pathways indicate annual global investments

in energy efficiency and supply need to increase

from US$1.3 trillion to 1.7–2.2 trillion (ie, 2% of

global GDP)

Current R&D efforts in these areas are grossly

inadequate compared with future potentials and

needs

Stable Investment Regimes

Policy Integration at the Urban Scale

Simulated energy use for an urban settlement of 20,000 inhabitants

using SimCity Model combining spatially explicit models of urban form,

density, and energy infrastructures, with energy systems optimization

Source: Grubler et al, 2012

ILLUSTRATIONS

Energy Focused Buildings University of Ontario Inst. of Technology

UOIT BTES GSHP System

Net-zero Energy Buildings

Community Integrated Energy

Systems

Drake Landing Solar Community, Alberta

52 Homes, 90% Solar Fraction

Closing

Sustainability: Essential

Energy sustainability: A critical quest

Climate change: Key part