energy strategy for worcestershire - sustainability west midlands · 2018. 7. 20. · •may / june...

Energy Strategy for Worcestershire

Stakeholder Engagement Events

3 July 2018 Worcester Bosch

16 July 2018 Wychavon District Council

19 July 2018 EnviRecover EfW Plant

Welcome

• Context Setting

• Current Status / Evidence Base / Future Plans

• Opportunity to Shape Strategic Direction

• Next Steps

WLEP Vision and Objectives

To build a connected, creative, dynamic economythat delivers increased prosperity for all those who

choose to live, work, visit and invest in Worcestershire

Strategic Economic Plan (by 2025):

• To create 25,000 jobs

• Increase GVA by £2.9bn; and

• Contribute towards the delivery of 21,500 new homes

National Policy Context

National Policy ContextIndustrial Strategy

• Sets out five foundations of productivity

• Commits to investment in business-led innovation

• Aims to maximise the advantages for UK industry from the global shift to clean growth

• Commits to Local Industrial Strategies that build on local strengths and deliver on economic opportunities

Clean Growth Strategy

• Sets out a strategy to meet the UK’s Carbon budgets

• Since 1990 emissions have been cut by 42%

• UK has committed to an 80% reduction on 1990 levels by 2050

• The document sets out domestic policies to keep the UK on track to meet these targets

Local Impact• The energy system is changing rapidly, as the UK

shifts towards a lower carbon energy mix and local generation contributions increase

• Worcestershire LEP needs to be prepared for these changes and understand the impact they could have, particularly on local economic growth

• Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) have awarded funding to each LEP to develop a local Energy Strategy

Worcestershire Energy Strategy

Our Worcestershire Energy Strategy sets out to identify:

– How energy is currently consumed and generated

– What the associated carbon emissions are

– How this is likely to change in future

– What the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within Worcestershire are, due to these changes

Key aim is to identify local power, heat and transport opportunities and to take forward a strong pipeline of low

carbon projects

Timeline• April – BEIS award funding to WLEP

• May – WLEP and WCC commissioned Encraft and Sustainability West Midlands to support strategy development

• May / June – Project inception and evidence gathering

• July – Initial findings / stakeholder engagement sessions

• July / August – Development of strategy and implementation plan

• September – LEP Board to receive presentation on emerging draft

• November – Final Energy Strategy delivered and launched

• Autumn 2018 – Local Industrial Strategy development

Regional Energy Hubs• Stream of work being run by BEIS in parallel – development

of Regional Energy Hubs

• East/West Mids Hub will be based in Nottinghamshire and covers 9 LEP areas:

o Black Country LEP / Coventry and Warwickshire LEP / D2N2 LEP / Greater Birmingham and Solihull LEP / Greater Lincolnshire LEP / Leicester and Leicestershire LEP / Marches LEP / Stoke and Staffordshire LEP / Worcestershire LEP

• Hub will provide technical expertise and support to LEPs with our project pipelines across the region

Clean Growth Agenda

• Good examples of Worcestershire businesses already linked into clean growth agenda e.g.

oManik Ventures (HERU – EfW)

oMurcott Energy (The Murb – urban wind turbine)

o Indra (Energy storage and smart EV chargers –sell to grid model)

o Greengineering (Heat Recovery)

Key Headlines / Stats• WLEP well-placed (Fit for the Future II Report – Aug

‘17)

o 11th / 38 – climate mitigation / carbon reduction

o 14th / 38 – low carbon economy

• Key challenges for Worcestershire include:

o Levels of fuel poverty across the county

o National Grid capacity – presents issues for installing renewable energy generation and EV charging / makes it more expensive to develop in some areas

o Harnessing renewable energy opportunities in county e.g. Geothermal heat networks

EVIDENCE BASE

8%

22%

2%

10%

9%3%2%

44%

Domestic Electricity

Domestic Gas

Domestic Coal

Non DomesticElectricity

Non Domestic Gas

Non DomesticOther

Bioenergy andWaste

Road Transport

Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by fuel

Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by LA and fuel

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest

Fu

el c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

GW

h)

Road Transport

Bioenergy and Waste

Non Domestic Other

Non Domestic Coal

Non Domestic Gas

Non Domestic Electricity

Domestic other

Domestic Coal

Domestic Gas


Energy.Energy consumption in Worcestershire by LA and fuel

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


Fu

el c

on

su

mp

tio

n (

GW

h)

Road Transport

Bioenergy and Waste

Non Domestic Other

Non Domestic Coal

Non Domestic Gas

Non Domestic Electricity

Domestic other

Domestic Coal

Domestic Gas


*Road transport data excludes energy consumption for motorway driving

Off-gas propertiesPercentage of off-gas properties in Worcestershire by LSOA

Areas of fuel povertyPercentage of homes in fuel poverty in Worcestershire

LA Name 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bromsgrove 12.6 10.9 9.8 9.1 10.6 10.0

Malvern Hills 14.8 15.2 12.6 14.1 15.6 12.6

Redditch 9.8 10.4 9.7 9.0 10.5 10.6

Worcester 13.4 13.1 12.1 10.7 12.1 12.7

Wychavon 12.1 12.1 10.6 11.1 12.7 10.7

Wyre Forest 13.9 13.5 12.2 11.1 12.6 12.5

Worcestershire 12.7 12.5 11.2 10.8 12.3 11.5

Carbon.Carbon emissions in Worcestershire

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200


Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kT

CO

2)

Domestic

Industry and Commercial

Transport

Carbon.Carbon emissions in Worcestershire

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest WorcestershireTotal

To

nn

es

CO

2/p

ers

on

Domestic Non-Domestic Transport England UK

Carbon.Domestic carbon emissions in Worcestershire

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


Do

me

sti

c t

on

ne

s C

O2

pe

r h

ou

se

ho

ld

Domestic Electricity Domestic Gas Domestic 'Other Fuels'

Carbon.Industrial carbon emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


Ca

rbo

n e

mis

sio

ns

(M

tCO

2e

)

Industry and Commercial Electricity Industry and Commercial Gas Industrial and Commercial Other Fuels Agriculture

Carbon.Industrial carbon emissions

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

Bromsgrove Malvern Hills Redditch Worcester Wychavon Wyre Forest WorcestershireTotal

Ca

rbo

n e

mis

sio

ns

(T

on

ne

s C

O2

e/m

2)

Industry and Commercial Electricity Industry and Commercial Gas Large Industrial Installations

Industrial and Commercial Other Fuels Agriculture England Average

Carbon.Scenario carbon emissions

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2015

Ca

rbo

n E

mis

sio

ns

(kT

CO

2)

Domestic Predicted

Transport Predicted

Industry and Commercial Predicted

Agriculture Predicted

Change of land use Predicted

Domestic Actual

Transport Actual

Industry and Commercial Actual

Agriculture Actual

Change of land use Actual

Renewable energy.Large scale renewable generation

Data

EV Charge Point dataSpread of charge points in Worcestershire

Data

Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity generation connections

Some areas have existing grid constraints making expansion of new development difficult

In other areas the DNO is unable to connect new large scale distributed generation without reinforcement

Grey indicates data not available

Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity demand connections



Grey indicates data not available

Grid capacity.Capacity for new electricity demand connections



FUTURE ENERGYSCENARIOS

Future Energy Scenarios.Our energy system is changing

Our energy system has been changing rapidly and will continue to change. National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios (FES) have been used to project future energy consumption in Worcestershire

National Grid

Renewable generation is now 34% of peak capacity

New technologies such as Electric Vehicles will lead to additional demands on the electricity grid

The FES project energy demand and supply out to 2050

Two Degrees is the only scenario that meets the UK’s climate goals

Future Energy Scenarios.Our energy system is changing

Scenario differences include:

Take-up of Electric Vehicles

Change in domestic heating technologies

Renewable generation on the system

Change in nuclear generation output

Use of electricity interconnectors and storage

Policy focus on decarbonisation

The following slides summarise some of these differences

National Grid

National Electric Vehicle projectionsThere can be stark differences between the scenarios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2015 2030 2040 2050 2015 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

ve

hic

les

Non EVs PHEV PEV

TwoDegrees

SteadyState

Almost all vehicles are electric in 2050

Only 20% of vehicles are electric or hybrid in 2050

Commercial electricity demands.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

An

nu

al

co

mm

erc

ial e

lec

tric

ity d

em

an

d (

TW

h)

Two Degrees Steady State History

Cheap gas used in preference to electricity

Electrification of heating in greener economies

General growth in the Commercial sector over the period giving upward

demands

Industrial electricity demands.

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

An

nu

al

Ind

us

tria

l e

lec

tric

ity d

em

an

d (

TW

h)


Leaving the EU causes uncertainty for all scenarios over the next two to three years

Slowest of the economies

Growing economy and electrification of heating

Smart meters.What will be the impact of smart meters?

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pe

rce

nta

ge

ch

an

ge

to

re

sid

en

tia

l pe

ak

Two Degrees Steady State

Degree of savings based on take up rate of smart appliances and consumer engagement

Only Two Degrees meets the SMART meter rollout programme

Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use

0

5

10

15

20

25

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

s

Air Source Heat Pump Biomass

Fuel cell Gas heat pump

Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler

Micro-CHP

Two Degrees Steady State

Residential heating.Low carbon heating technology use

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Mill

ion

s

Air Source Heat Pump Biomass Fuel cell

Gas heat pump Ground Source Heat Pump Hybrid heat pump gas boiler

Micro-CHP

Steady State

Residential heating.Impact of heating choice on electricity demand

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Heat

Pu

mp

Peak D

em

an

d (

GW

)


Projection uncertainty.Sometimes the pace of change can be more rapid than we expect

SWOT ANALYSIS

Worcestershire Growth plans

Strategic Economic Plan(by 2025):

• To create 25,000 jobs

• Increase GVA by £2.9bn; and

• Contribute towards the delivery of 21,500 new homes

Worcestershire SWOT Analysis.Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats

We are interested in feedback on how you view Worcestershire’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats from an energy perspective.

Where does energy present a barrier to economic growth?

Where does energy present an opportunity for Worcestershire?

What might be the opportunities or threats to Worcestershire in a low carbon future that aligns with the Two Degrees scenario?

What would they be in a Steady State scenario in which the pace of change is slower and decarbonisation is less of a priority?

Worcestershire PrioritiesInitially identified priorities

Challenge/need for enhanced grid capacity and flexibility - studies to identify areas of improvement in line with:

Research (energy implications of future development in the county),

National strategy (increased electrification of transport and heat)

Impact of technological development on future energy needs

Development of low-carbon energy sources, including deep geothermal energy

Addressing fuel poverty – provision of affordable energy

Further development of Worcestershire’s growing low-carbon sector

Provision of evidence to support the strengthening of energy-related planning policy e.g. relating to renewable energy and heat networks

energy strategy for worcestershire - sustainability west midlands · 2018. 7. 20. · •may / june...

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