energy slideshow - dallas fed · henry hub natural gashenry hub & marcellus natural gas notes:...
TRANSCRIPT
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Updated: August 3, 2020
ENERGY SLIDESHOWFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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ENERGY PRICES
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Brent & WTI Crude OilWTI & Brent Crude Oil
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/31/20.
Dashed lines are forward curves. WTI is West Texas Intermediate.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Brent (Jul 31 = $43.19) WTI (Jul 31 = $40.69)Dollars per barrel
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Henry Hub Natural GasHenry Hub & Marcellus Natural Gas
NOTES: Latest prices are averages for the week ending 7/31/20.
Dashed line is a forward curve. Marcellus price is an average of
Dominion South, Transco Leidy Line, and Tennessee Zone 4 prices.
SOURCES: Bloomberg; Wall Street Journal.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Henry Hub (Jul 31 = $1.82) Marcellus (Jul 31 = $1.29)Dollars per million
British thermal units
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Retail Gasoline & Diesel
NOTES: Prices are for 7/27/20. PADDs are “Petroleum Administration for
Defense Districts.” Prices include all taxes.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Retail price per gallon
PADD Gasoline Diesel
1 $2.09 $2.52
1A $2.12 $2.63
1B $2.25 $2.70
1C $1.99 $2.38
2 $2.08 $2.30
3 $1.86 $2.18
4 $2.32 $2.34
5 $2.82 $2.95
U.S. $2.18 $2.43
Regular Gasoline & Highway Diesel
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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GLOBAL PETROLEUM
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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World Oil Supply & Demand
NOTE: Dashed lines represent forecasts.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Supply & Demand
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Q2
2020
92.3
84.4
Million barrels per day
World
production
World
consumption
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World Oil Supply & Demand
NOTE: Shaded bars represent forecasts.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Implied Change in World Oil Stocks
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million barrels per day
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OPEC Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Million barrels per day
July
22.47
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OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTES: OECD is the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. Dashed line represents a forecast.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
OECD Commercial Oil Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Million barrels
2010-2014 average
July
3227
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OECD Commercial Inventories
NOTE: OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
World Oil Production Outages
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Million barrels per day
OPEC
Non-OPEC
June
4.17
0.76
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NATIONAL OUTLOOK
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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U.S. Oil Production & Rig CountU.S. Oil & Gas Production
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
1921 1929 1937 1945 1953 1961 1969 1977 1985 1993 2001 2009 2017
U.S. crude oil production
Million barrels per day
U.S. natural gas production
Billion cubic feet per day
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U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTES: Dashed line shows the forecast as of 7/07/20. Rig count
series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
U.S. Oil Production & Rig Count
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
U.S. crude oil production
Million barrels per day
U.S. oil rig count
Number of active rigs
May
10.00
July
180
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Gasoline Demand
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted.
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Oil & Gas Employment
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
100
140
180
220
260
300
340
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for oil and gas operations
Oil and gas
extraction
May
196.0
June
151.9
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Crude Oil & Product Inventories
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Commercial Crude Oil Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels
May
521Jul
526
Jun
534
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Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/30/20.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Natural Gas Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Trillion cubic feet
Jun
3.1
May
2.3
Jul
3.2
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Gasoline DemandGasoline Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels
Jul
247
May
258Jun
257
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Gasoline DemandDistillate Inventories
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Square marks use latest weekly data as of 7/29/20.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels
Jun
174
Jul
178May
176
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Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Series is seasonally adjusted. Data are estimates based on hourly
traffic count data at approximately 5,000 locations nationwide.
SOURCE: Federal Highway Administration.
Vehicle Miles Traveled
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Billion miles traveled
May
204.5
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Gasoline Demand
NOTES: Square marks are based on averages of weekly data.
Gasoline consumption is estimated using product supplied.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Gasoline Consumption
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
5.0
5.4
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.6
9.0
9.4
9.8
10.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014-2018 range 2014-2018 average 2020 2019Million barrels per day
Jun
8.24
Jul
8.70May
7.19
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REGIONAL ACTIVITY
www.dallasfed.org/research/energyFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTE: Natural gas series is marketed production.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil & Gas Production
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Texas crude oil production
Million barrels per day
Texas natural gas production
Billion cubic feet per day
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Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
NOTE: Rig count series shows the last weekly count each month.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Energy Information Administration.
Texas Oil Production & Rig Count
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
80
180
280
380
480
580
680
780
880
980
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Texas crude oil production
Million barrels per day
Texas rig count
Number of active rigs
May
4.40
Jul
104
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Texas Mining Sector EmploymentTexas Oil & Gas Employment
SOURCES: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Number of jobs (thousands)
Support activities
for mining
Oil and gas
extraction
Jun
113.0
67.1
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Texas Mining Sector EmploymentDrilled but Uncompleted Wells
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Number of wells
U.S. basins excluding Permian Basin
Permian Basin
Jun
4171
3488
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Texas Mining Sector EmploymentWell Completions by Basin
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Number of wells
Permian
Basin
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Anadarko
Appalachia
Bakken
Haynesville
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12-Month Total Rig Change by County
*Change in total rigs, from 07/26/2019 to 07/31/2020.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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3-Month Total Rig Change by County
*Change in total rigs, from 04/24/2020 to 07/31/2020.
SOURCES: Baker Hughes; Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Crude Oil Production by Region
NOTES: Series depict estimates after April 2020.
“Other areas” include Haynesville and Marcellus.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Million barrels per day
Permian
Basin
Bakken
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Anadarko
Other areas
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Billion cubic feet per day
Appalachia
Permian Basin
Haynesville
Other areas
Anadarko
Eagle Ford
Natural Gas Production by Region
NOTES: Series depict estimates after April 2020.
“Other areas” include Niobrara and Bakken.
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
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Energy Survey Business Activity
NOTES: Index is the percentage of firms reporting an increase in activity
since the prior quarter minus the percentage reporting a decrease.
Positive values reflect expansion in oil and gas activity, negative values
reflect contraction and zero reflects no change since last quarter.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
In the current quarter vs. the prior quarter: has your firm’s level of business
activity increased, not changed or decreased?
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
-42.1
13.826.7
40.1 41.8 37.327.3
38.1 40.7 44.5 43.3
2.310.8
-0.6-7.4 -4.2
-50.9 -66.1
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1
2016
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2017
Q1
2018
Q3
2018
Q1
2019
Q3
2019
Q1
2020
Diffusion index
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Breakeven Prices for New Wells
NOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
92 E&P firms answered this question from March 11-19, 2020.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to profitably drill a new well?
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Permian
(Midland)
Permian
(Delaware)
Eagle Ford
Permian
(Other)
Bakken
Other U.S.
(Shale)
Other U.S.
(Non-shale)
$46 $46$50 $50 $51 $51 $52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dollars per barrel
22 7 23 44 5 8 18Number of responses
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Shut-in Prices for Existing Wells
Dallas Fed Energy Survey—In the top two areas in which your firm is active: What
WTI oil price does your firm need to cover operating expenses for existing wells?
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasNOTES: Line shows the mean, and bars show the range of responses.
95 E&P firms answered this question from March 11-19, 2020.
SOURCE: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Permian
(Midland)Eagle Ford
Permian
(Delaware)
Permian
(Other)
Other U.S.
(Shale)
Other U.S.
(Non-shale)
$23 $26 $26 $28 $30 $32$36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
8 18 22 5 9 23 44Number of responses
Dollars per barrel
Bakken
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Additional Resources
• Energy Indicators
– A monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector
• Dallas Fed Energy Survey
– A quarterly assessment of energy activity of about 200 oil and gas firms located in the Eleventh District
• Energy in the 11th District
– Detailed info on four major regions: the Barnett Shale, Eagle Ford Shale, Haynesville Shale and Permian Basin
• Other energy articles and research
Click here to contact us for general information or other inquiries.Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas