energy scenarios for eu27
TRANSCRIPT
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Ea Energianalyse
34th Euroheat and Power Congress 26 May 2009
Anders Kofoed-Wiuff
Ea Energy Analyses (www.eaea.dk)
Energy Scenarios for EU27
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Ea Energianalyse
STOA energy scenariosScope
– EU-27 technology scenarios for 2030 illustrating barriers, challenges and opportunities
– Publicly available modelling tool (STREAM), including data
Prepared for
– STOA Scientific Technology Options Assessment panel in the European Parliament
– Supervisors: MEPs Jose Hasse Ferreira (Port.) and Anders Wijkmann (Swe.)
…by
– The Danish Board of Technology
– RISØ DTU
– Ea Energy Analyses
Two concrete goals
1. Reduce CO2 emissions by 50 per cent compared to the 1990-level
2. Reduce oil consumption by 50 per cent compared to the present level
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Nov./Dec. Sep./Oct.Feb. /March April/May
Website
20082007
MEPs
Dialogue on
- targets
- measures
- scenarios
MEPs
Stakeholders
Experts
-Energy
-Transport
-Savings
- Final scenario report- Two scenarios- Model tool+data
Workshop
Phase II
Updated tool, data, and scenarios
Phase I
Dissemination
Public model toolDraft report
Dinner debate Final workshop
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West
Central
South
North
East
=>
aggregated
to EU level
We have modelled five regions
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Two scenarios for 2030
Small-tech
• Energy savings
• District heating - CHP
• Biomass
• Solar, wind, wave
• Improved fuel economy
• Modal-change
• Electric vehicles
• ICT
Big-tech
• Carbon Capture & Storage
• Nuclear power
• Biomass
• Improved fuel economy
• Modal-change
• Electric vehicles
• Biofuels
…or perhaps a combination
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Key decision makers
Politicians (EU, national)
Local politicians and planning authorities
Car industry
Big power producers
Energy consumers
Wind/solar
industry
Farmers
Energy manufacturing industry
Grid companiesBio-fuel refineries
District heating companies
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Ea Energianalyse
Small-tech calls for smart grids and ICT
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Electricity and heat supply
Small-tech Big-tech
Decentralised structure
Centralised structure
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Ea Energianalyse
Growth and demandApprox 2 % GDP growth annually in both scenarios –
app. 70 % over 25 years
Same energy services –
but with higher efficiency
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2005 Reference Big-tech Small-tech
PJ
2030
Final energy
Fuel economy cars
Energy savings
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Ea Energianalyse
Nuclear power
• Big-tech
– Compared to today, nuclear capacity is
increased from approx. 135 GW to 175 GW
• Small-tech
– Not a dedicated measure, nuclear not
decommissioned beyond what is assumed
in the reference projection – 104 GW
• SET-plan technology map points at
nuclear potential in the range of 127-
200 GW in 2030
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Ea Energianalyse
Carbon Capture and Storage
• Key measure in Big-tech
– 145 GW power capacity equipped with CCS
– all large thermal power plants commissioned beyond 2020 with CCS. Coal power plants commissioned in the period 2010-2020 are prepared for CCS
• SET plan indicates a potential of 90-190 GW of CCS capacity in 2030
• Assuming
– 90 % cleaning eff.
– 10 %-point electric efficiency loss
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Why combined heat and power production?
Higher fuel
efficiency – it
costs around
30% more fuel to
produce the
power and heat
separately
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0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
Final energy demand today
Suitable for district systems
Conversion losses today
District heating in Small - tech
PJ / year Conversion losses
Others
District cooling
District heating
Potential for CHP based district heating
*
* excl. transport
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Transport
2005 2030Small-tech
2030Big-tech
Fuel economy 160 g CO2/km 100 g CO2/km 100 g CO2/km
Electric vehicles 0% 15-20% 15-20%
Biofuels 1% 5% 15%
ICT 3 % of transport work shifted
Modal change 8 % of transport work shifted
8 % of transport work shifted
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Ea Energianalyse
Improvements in fuel economy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
g/km
10per cent electric cars
10per cent plug - in hybrid cars
5per cent biofuel cars
Average sold car in EU
Average car in EU27 scenario
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
g/km
10per cent electric cars
10per cent plug - in hybrid cars
5per cent biofuel cars
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
g/km
Average sold car in EU
Average car in EU27 scenarios
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Ea Energianalyse
Today’s efficiency potential
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Ea Energianalyse
Electricity supplyElectricity production per fuel
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Oil
Nucl
ear
Coal
Coal
with
CCS
Nat
ural G
as
Nat
ural G
as w
ith C
CS
Hyd
ro p
ower
Win
d Pow
er
Bio
mas
s
Bio
mas
s with
CCS
Bio
gas
Munic
ipal
Was
te
PV/C
SP
Geo
ther
mal
Pow
er
Wav
e en
ergy
PJ
Reference 2030
Small-Tech
Big-Tech
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Ea Energianalyse
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
80.000
2005 Reference 2030 Small-Tech Big-tech
PJ
Gross energy consumption EU 27
Nuclear
RE
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
50% oil target
Results
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Ea Energianalyse
Results
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Ea Energianalyse
Results
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Ea Energianalyse
Economic results
• Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. – the average annual capital costs
– costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs
• Not considered– Health benefits
– Cost of modal change and efficiency in transport
– Transaction costs related to implementation
• Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections
• Therefore: interpret results with caution
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Annuitised cost
- extra costs in Small-Tech compared to reference
(case with low fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
Annuitised cost
- extra costs in Small-Tech compared to reference
(case with today's fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
Economics
Fuel price projections Oil
(USD/bbl)
Gas
($/MBtu)
Coal
($/ton)
Low (IEA projection 2007*)
62 7.3 61
High(Prices in September 2008)
115 16 179
Small-tech
CO2:
45 €/t
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Economics
Fuel price projections Oil
(USD/bbl)
Gas
($/MBtu)
Coal
($/ton)
Low (IEA projection 2007*)
62 7.3 61
High(Prices in September 2008)
115 16 179
Big-techAnnuitised cost
- extra costs in Big-Tech compared to reference
(case with low fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
Annuitised cost
- extra costs in Big-Tech compared to reference
(case with today's fuel price)
-400,000
-300,000
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total
million €/year
CO2:
45 €/t
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Critical Assumptions
Small-tech scenario Big-tech scenario
- Energy saving potentials are harvested (many barriers that are not only
economic)
- Local planning effort to expand district heating and cooling systems (to enjoy benefits of combined heat power)
- Significant improvement of the economy of solar power
- That natural gas, coal and uranium are accessible at reasonable prices.
- Dependent on the commercialization of carbon capture and storage technology
- Public support for more nuclear power
Both- The increased production of biomass for energy conversion.- The fuel economy of new cars is improved considerably.- That electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids are commercialized
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Project recommendations
• Saving energy is less expensive than producing energy• A targeted effort is required to stimulate the development
of district heating and district cooling grids• Strengthening and coordinating the European electricity
infrastructure will become a key measure in the future to allow for a high share of variable renewable energy sources.
• The fuel efficiency of conventional cars must be improved considerably and electric vehicles introduced
• Due to the process energy required to produce biofuelsbiomass should mainly be used for power and heat generation
• Municipal waste is an overlooked energy resource in many European countries
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Ea Energianalyse
Thank you!
• References:
– Danish Board of Technology www.tekno.dk
– Science and Technology Options Assessment www.europarl.europa.eu/stoa/network/default_en.htm
– Ea Energy Analyses www.eaea.dk
• Contact:
– Anders Kofoed-Wiuff [email protected]
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EU Member states LocalGlobal
Research, Development and Education
EU’s quota systemTo utilise practical experience
Local
Commitment
Planning – Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating
Taxes and incentives
Demonstration of flexible energy system
Consumers - Producers
Transnational planning of
offshore windmills
Hydro Wind District Heating
City planning and
transport policies
Electric/plug-in
hybrid cars/busesTo develop
energy efficient
vehicles Public Purchase Policy
CO2 Neutral
Houses
Energy labelling and
dynamic norms
Green
Campaigns
Intelligent Energy System
Municipalities/
cities
Existing
buildings
Urban districts
Goals
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Ea Energianalyse
EXTRA SLIDES
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Resources and security of supply
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Development of nominal fuel prices from 1960 to 2006 (annual averages)
Coal
Gas
Oil
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Questions:
• How will fuel prices develop?
• Do the current high prices reflect temporary bottlenecks or long term trends?
• Is it acceptable for the EU to have increasing import dependency of:
– oil?
– gas?
– coal?
– biomass?
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Energy savings - large potentials…Saving potential Description
Heating existing
buildings42 % Improved insulation etc.
Lighting 65 % Compact fluorescent lighting
Water heating 65 %High efficient electric water heater and
solar water heater
Major appliances 40-60 %Increasing appliance efficiency
standards at 2-3% per year
Small appliance
standby40 %
Reduce standby power req. of
televisions, set-top boxes etc.
Source:
McKinsey
Eurima
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
nyt 1975 nyt 1988 nyt 2001 Bedst 06
kW
h/å
r
Køleskab
Fryser
Refrigerator
Freezer
New 1988 New 1975 New 2001 Best 2006
kW
h/y
ea
r
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Energy savings in the scenarios
• Efficiency improvements in reference,
Big-Tech and in Small-Tech
Percentage
saving
compared to
today’s level
Energy
form
Energy savings in
DG-Tren,
reference and
Big-Tech
Additional
savings in
Small-Tech
Tertiary Electricity 20-30 % 10-20 %
Heating 20-30 % 6-10 %
Industry Energy 20-30 % 10-16 %
Residential Electricity 20-35 % 10-20 %
Heating 20-40 % 7-15 %
Stays within potentials identified in other studies.
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The costs of savings?
• Uncertainty concerning the costs of savings
Using high fuel prices the investment costs in
the energy savings in the Small-Tech scenario
could be 5 times higher and still give a net
benefit. With the low fuel prices it could be
2.5 times higher.
Prices used in the scenarios:
18-25 €/GJ for electricity savings
10-16 €/GJ for heat savings
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Saved investments in the power system due to reduction in electricity demand
• The 16% additional electricity savings in Small-tech scenario reduces demand for power capacity
2,500 PJ electricity is saved each year
in the Small-Tech scenario replacing
around 200 power plants at 600 MW
capacity.
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Saved investment in the power system due to flexible electricity demand
• 2% of the total electricity demand is assumed to be flexible in the Small-Tech scenario
e.g. 30% of residential electricity used for refrigerators and freezers
and thereby reduces peak load by 50 GW
50 GW cut in peak load saves
investments in 80 peak power plants
at 600 MW capacity.
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Why is it difficult to achieve the savings?
What should be done?
EPC (European Policy Centre) – Gain without pain: towards a more rational use of energy:
• New policy measures are needed + active use of existing directives, such as the Eco-Design Directive.
• Third-party financing (such as ESCO’s) should be promoted.
• All public sector organizations should have ambitious targets (including the European Institutions).
• Metering and individual pay by the user is important.
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What should be done?
E.g. as pointed out in “Capturing the European Energy Productivity Opportunity”, McKinsey&Company, September 2008.
Four key areas to get right:
– Setting energy-efficiency standards for appliances and equipment.
– Upgrading the energy efficiency of new buildings and remodels.
– Raising corporate standards for energy efficiency
– Investing in energy intermediaries (e.g. ESCO’s)
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