energy- related eu wide projections of co2 emissions dr. l. mantzos e 3 m-lab / iccs-ntua contact:...

Energy- related EU wide projections Energy- related EU wide projections of CO2 emissionsof CO2 emissions

Dr. L. MantzosDr. L. Mantzos

EE33M-Lab / ICCS-NTUAM-Lab / ICCS-NTUAcontact: [email protected]: [email protected]

PRIMES modelPRIMES model

Baseline scenario for EU15 (1)Baseline scenario for EU15 (1)

• Developed in the context of the LREM Developed in the context of the LREM framework contract for DG-TRENframework contract for DG-TREN– Preliminary draft available since December Preliminary draft available since December

2001 is under revision:2001 is under revision:• member states commentsmember states comments• benchmarkingbenchmarking of draft baseline performed by ERM of draft baseline performed by ERM

and ESAP Beand ESAP Be..

• update of energy related data for year 2000update of energy related data for year 2000• integration of results from detailed sector specific integration of results from detailed sector specific

modelsmodels

Baseline scenario for EU15 (2)Baseline scenario for EU15 (2)

• knowledge knowledge to be to be gained from policy analysis gained from policy analysis includingincluding

– higher economic growthhigher economic growth– alternative energy import prices scenariosalternative energy import prices scenarios– greater penetration of renewables, nuclear casesgreater penetration of renewables, nuclear cases– alternative energy efficiency and technology progress alternative energy efficiency and technology progress

assumptionsassumptions– Kyoto compliance (Burden Sharing, different emission Kyoto compliance (Burden Sharing, different emission

trading regimes)trading regimes)

– Baseline to be finalised in summer 2002Baseline to be finalised in summer 2002

Short description of PRIMES model (1)Short description of PRIMES model (1)

• An Energy-System Model covering market-driven An Energy-System Model covering market-driven behaviour of energy/economic agentsbehaviour of energy/economic agents– Solving for the whole energy systemSolving for the whole energy system

• Modular structureModular structure• Economic decision of agents / Price-driven clearing of energy marketsEconomic decision of agents / Price-driven clearing of energy markets• Explicit technologies in both demand and supplyExplicit technologies in both demand and supply• Environment integrated: when emission constraints apply to the whole Environment integrated: when emission constraints apply to the whole

energy system the model suggests least cost allocation of effort to energy system the model suggests least cost allocation of effort to agentsagents

• Dynamic model; includes vintages of equipment Dynamic model; includes vintages of equipment • Long term 2030Long term 2030

– Covers all EU15 member states individuallyCovers all EU15 member states individually– Produces long term (up to 2030) projections of:Produces long term (up to 2030) projections of:

• production, imports, conversion, consumption and prices of energyproduction, imports, conversion, consumption and prices of energy• investments, technology choice and cost of policiesinvestments, technology choice and cost of policies


• The demand side in PRIMES:The demand side in PRIMES:– Industry: 9 sectors according to EUROSTAT Energy Balances Industry: 9 sectors according to EUROSTAT Energy Balances

definitions; further decomposed to sub-sectors, for each one definitions; further decomposed to sub-sectors, for each one different energy uses defineddifferent energy uses defined

– Households: decomposition along typical patterns of Households: decomposition along typical patterns of household energy/technology behaviourhousehold energy/technology behaviour

– Tertiary: decomposition along types of services (market Tertiary: decomposition along types of services (market services, non-market services, trade), agricultureservices, non-market services, trade), agriculture

– Transport: decomposition along passenger and freight Transport: decomposition along passenger and freight transporttransport

• Passenger transport: private cars, motorcycles, public road transport, Passenger transport: private cars, motorcycles, public road transport, rail, aviation, inland navigationrail, aviation, inland navigation

• Freight transport: trucks, rail, inland navigationFreight transport: trucks, rail, inland navigation– Fuels detail at the level of EUROSTAT Energy BalancesFuels detail at the level of EUROSTAT Energy Balances– Alternative technologies defined at the level of energy usesAlternative technologies defined at the level of energy uses


• Structure of the demand side modelStructure of the demand side model

Sector - 1e.g . Iron an d S teel

Su b -Sector - 1e.g . Cen tral Boiler Dwellin g s

En erg y Use -1e.g . Sp ace Heatin g

F u els

F u els

TECHNO LO G YO rd in ary

F u tu reTech n olog ies

En erg y Use - 2e.g . W ater Heatin g

Su b -Sector - 2e.g . E lectric Heatin g Dwellin g s

Sector - 2e.g . Resid en tial

Sector - 3e.g . Passen g er tran sp orts

Lin k to Macro-Econ om yActivity an d In com e Variab le


• Electricity and steam generation in PRIMES:Electricity and steam generation in PRIMES:– Three different types of generators considered: utilities, Three different types of generators considered: utilities,

industrial autoproducers, other generatorsindustrial autoproducers, other generators• Different characteristics and decisionsDifferent characteristics and decisions• Economies of scaleEconomies of scale

– Installed capacity categorised in 45 different plant typesInstalled capacity categorised in 45 different plant types– Capacity expansion: 88 different plant types for new plants Capacity expansion: 88 different plant types for new plants

(technical and economic characteristics evolve over time); (technical and economic characteristics evolve over time); possibility for re-powering of existing plantspossibility for re-powering of existing plants

– Chronological load curves; synchronisation of four loads: Chronological load curves; synchronisation of four loads: demand of electricity/steam, intermittent, fuel pricingdemand of electricity/steam, intermittent, fuel pricing

– Simultaneous decision on electricity/steam production:Simultaneous decision on electricity/steam production:• Strategic capacity expansion problemStrategic capacity expansion problem• Operational plant selection and utilisation problemOperational plant selection and utilisation problem• Cost evaluation and pricing policy Cost evaluation and pricing policy


• Structure of power/steam generation modelStructure of power/steam generation model

UtilitiesUtilitiesProd

Trans

Distr.

IndustrialAutopr.IndustrialAutopr.

ProdTrans

Distr.

Other generatorsOther generatorsProd

TransDistr.

Links to other Utilities (e.g. other

countries)

residentialtertiary

industry

Critical assumptions used in PRIMES model Critical assumptions used in PRIMES model projections (1)projections (1)

• Demographic assumptions:Demographic assumptions:– Population: use of EUROSTAT Base scenarioPopulation: use of EUROSTAT Base scenario– Household size: Global Urban Observatory and Statistics Unit Household size: Global Urban Observatory and Statistics Unit

of UN-HABITAT scenarioof UN-HABITAT scenario• Weather assumptions: 2000 weather conditions Weather assumptions: 2000 weather conditions

maintained throughout the projection horizonmaintained throughout the projection horizon• Macroeconomic and sectoral projections sources:Macroeconomic and sectoral projections sources:

– DG-ECFIN short term forecast (as in November 2001)DG-ECFIN short term forecast (as in November 2001)– Study performed by WEFA (now DRI-WEFA) in the context of Study performed by WEFA (now DRI-WEFA) in the context of

the LREM framework contract (March 2001)the LREM framework contract (March 2001)– Member states stability programs and long term projectionsMember states stability programs and long term projections– GEM-E3 model (general equilibrium model of the EU economy GEM-E3 model (general equilibrium model of the EU economy

used to ensure consistency of sectoral and macroeconomic used to ensure consistency of sectoral and macroeconomic projectionsprojections


• Fuel prices:Fuel prices:– International fuel prices scenario: output of POLES model International fuel prices scenario: output of POLES model

(world energy model); scenario constructed in the context of (world energy model); scenario constructed in the context of LREM Framework contract LREM Framework contract

– Energy Taxes: assumed to remain unchanged in real terms as Energy Taxes: assumed to remain unchanged in real terms as determined by legislation which was in place at the end of determined by legislation which was in place at the end of 20002000

– Refinery production costs: detailed analysis for consistency Refinery production costs: detailed analysis for consistency reasons with PRIMES-Refinery model (IFP) performed in the reasons with PRIMES-Refinery model (IFP) performed in the context of the Framework contractcontext of the Framework contract

• Transport activity growth:Transport activity growth:– Model output related to macroeconomic and demographic Model output related to macroeconomic and demographic

assumptionsassumptions– In line with White paper for Transport figuresIn line with White paper for Transport figures


– Detailed analysis for consistency reasons with PRIMES-Detailed analysis for consistency reasons with PRIMES-Transport model (KUL) performed in the context of the Transport model (KUL) performed in the context of the Framework contract Framework contract

• Potential for renewable energy forms: Potential for renewable energy forms: – study performed by ECN in the context of the Framework study performed by ECN in the context of the Framework

contract (including construction of cost curves for exploitable contract (including construction of cost curves for exploitable potential)potential)

• Committed investment and decommissioning in power Committed investment and decommissioning in power generationgeneration– EURPROG report and other databases (e.g. EPIC) in the EURPROG report and other databases (e.g. EPIC) in the

horizon to 2010horizon to 2010– Beyond 2010 plant decommissioning occurs on the basis of Beyond 2010 plant decommissioning occurs on the basis of

technical lifetime and agreed policies on nuclear phase-outtechnical lifetime and agreed policies on nuclear phase-out

Reporting of PRIMES model parametersReporting of PRIMES model parameters

• Model report files delivered to DG-TREN in the context Model report files delivered to DG-TREN in the context of the LREM Framework contract include in full detail:of the LREM Framework contract include in full detail:– Demographic assumptionsDemographic assumptions– Macroeconomic and sectoral assumptionsMacroeconomic and sectoral assumptions– International fuel prices assumptionsInternational fuel prices assumptions– Transport activity results by mode (both for passenger and Transport activity results by mode (both for passenger and

freight transport)freight transport)– Energy production and net imports Energy production and net imports – Energy conversion in power plants, CHP plants, district Energy conversion in power plants, CHP plants, district

heating plants, refineries, etcheating plants, refineries, etc– Energy consumption by sector and fuelEnergy consumption by sector and fuel– CO2 emissions by sector and fuelCO2 emissions by sector and fuel

Summary of policies and measures included in Summary of policies and measures included in PRIMES baseline (1)PRIMES baseline (1)

• The baseline assumes that agreed policies addressing The baseline assumes that agreed policies addressing economic actors in the Member States, as known by the economic actors in the Member States, as known by the end of 2000, would be continued:end of 2000, would be continued:– Dynamic trends of technological progress Dynamic trends of technological progress – Current trends as regards sectoral restructuring of the EU Current trends as regards sectoral restructuring of the EU

economy continueeconomy continue– Liberalisation of electricity and gas markets assumed to Liberalisation of electricity and gas markets assumed to

develop fully by 2010develop fully by 2010– Restructuring in power and steam generation enabled by Restructuring in power and steam generation enabled by

mature gas based power generation technologiesmature gas based power generation technologies– Ongoing infrastructure projects in some member states Ongoing infrastructure projects in some member states

involving the introduction of natural gas assumed to gain full involving the introduction of natural gas assumed to gain full maturity by 2005maturity by 2005

Summary of policies and measures included in Summary of policies and measures included in PRIMES baseline (2)PRIMES baseline (2)

– Continuation of current policies and those in the process of Continuation of current policies and those in the process of being implementedbeing implemented

– Energy policies aiming at promoting renewable energy Energy policies aiming at promoting renewable energy are assumed to continue (the EC renewables electricity are assumed to continue (the EC renewables electricity Directive is not included explicitly in the baseline)Directive is not included explicitly in the baseline)

– Different policies in place by member state as regards Different policies in place by member state as regards nuclear energy nuclear energy

– The effects from the ACEA/KAMA/JAMA negotiated The effects from the ACEA/KAMA/JAMA negotiated agreements are incorporated in the baselineagreements are incorporated in the baseline

• This approach allows considering the Baseline as the This approach allows considering the Baseline as the benchmark against which a number of alternative benchmark against which a number of alternative policies can be measured, assisting policy analysts in policies can be measured, assisting policy analysts in the evaluation of alternative measuresthe evaluation of alternative measures

Comparison to previous PRIMES model projection Comparison to previous PRIMES model projection (1)(1)

• In the context of the “Shared Analysis” project PRIMES model has In the context of the “Shared Analysis” project PRIMES model has been used for the construction of the Baseline scenario published been used for the construction of the Baseline scenario published in the “ European energy Outlook to 2020” (DG-ENER, 1999)in the “ European energy Outlook to 2020” (DG-ENER, 1999) – The “Shared Analysis” Baseline has been used as the starting point The “Shared Analysis” Baseline has been used as the starting point

for the current Baseline being constructed in the context of the for the current Baseline being constructed in the context of the LREM Framework ContractLREM Framework Contract

• In Spring 2000 a revision of the “Shared Analysis” Baseline took In Spring 2000 a revision of the “Shared Analysis” Baseline took place in the context of the “Sectoral Objective Targets” Study for place in the context of the “Sectoral Objective Targets” Study for DG-ENVDG-ENV– The “Sectoral Objective Targets” Baseline included the effects from The “Sectoral Objective Targets” Baseline included the effects from

the ACEA/KAMA/JAMA negotiated agreements and focused in the the ACEA/KAMA/JAMA negotiated agreements and focused in the horizon to 2010horizon to 2010

• Given that the draft Baseline also includes the above mentioned Given that the draft Baseline also includes the above mentioned agreement comparison of some indicative results in the horizon to agreement comparison of some indicative results in the horizon to 2010 is made versus the “Sectoral Objectives Study” Baseline2010 is made versus the “Sectoral Objectives Study” Baseline


• Main model assumptions:Main model assumptions:– In 2000-2010 EU population is expected to increase by In 2000-2010 EU population is expected to increase by

0.2 % pa compared to 0.3 % pa0.2 % pa compared to 0.3 % pa– In 2000-2010 GDP is assumed to grow by 2.4% pa in In 2000-2010 GDP is assumed to grow by 2.4% pa in

both scenariosboth scenarios– Crude oil price is assumed to reach 20 $00 per boe in Crude oil price is assumed to reach 20 $00 per boe in

2010 compared to 15.5 $00 per boe2010 compared to 15.5 $00 per boe• Total CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 4.8% Total CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 4.8%

in 1990-2010 compared to 4.1%in 1990-2010 compared to 4.1%– The corresponding increase in 2000-2010 is 3.8% in the The corresponding increase in 2000-2010 is 3.8% in the

draft Baseline compared to 2.55% in the “Sectoral draft Baseline compared to 2.55% in the “Sectoral Objectives Study” BaselineObjectives Study” Baseline


• Gross inland consumption: Gross inland consumption: – Increases by 18.2% versus 15.6% in 1990-2010; 6.7% Increases by 18.2% versus 15.6% in 1990-2010; 6.7%

versus 5% in 2000-2010versus 5% in 2000-2010– Natural gas share in 2010: 29% versus 26.3%Natural gas share in 2010: 29% versus 26.3%– Renewable energy forms share in 2010: 7.3% versus Renewable energy forms share in 2010: 7.3% versus

5.8%5.8%– Nuclear energy share in 2010: 13.1% versus 14.9%Nuclear energy share in 2010: 13.1% versus 14.9%

• Main indicators of the EU energy system:Main indicators of the EU energy system:– Energy intensity improves by 23.8% versus 25.2% in Energy intensity improves by 23.8% versus 25.2% in

1990-2010; 15.9% versus 17.2% in 2000-20101990-2010; 15.9% versus 17.2% in 2000-2010– Carbon intensity improves by 11.3% versus 10% in 1990-Carbon intensity improves by 11.3% versus 10% in 1990-

2010; 2.8% versus 2.3% in 2000-20102010; 2.8% versus 2.3% in 2000-2010

energy- related eu wide projections of co2 emissions dr. l. mantzos e 3 m-lab / iccs-ntua contact:...

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