energy policy shift and key energy … the environment for unleashing economic growth (including...
TRANSCRIPT
DR. KAMARIAH NORUDDINDIRECTOR, ENERGY SECTION
ECONOMIC PLANNING UNIT, PM’s DEPARTMENT
3RD ENERGY FORUM12TH JULY 2011
ENERGY POLICY SHIFT AND
KEY ENERGY PROJECTS
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE
ENERGY FUTURE FOR
MALAYSIA
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1. Creating the environment for unleashing economic growth (including NKEAs)2. Moving towards inclusive socio-economic development3. Developing and retaining a first-world talent base4. Building an environment that enhances quality of life
5. Transforming government to transform Malaysia
10MP StrategicThrusts
4
NEAC
1. Government’s
Role in Business
2. Public Finance
Reform
3. Human Capital
Development
4. International
Standards &
Liberalisation
5. Public Service
Delivery
6. Narrowing
Disparities/
Bumiputera SMEs
Strategic reform
initiatives
(SRIs)-
Concluding Part
Major Initiatives Of National Transformation Towards a
High Income Economy
NEAC
1. Re-energizing the
private sector
2. Developing a
quality workforce
3. Creating a
competitive
domestic
economy
4. Strengthening the
public sector
5. Transparent and
market friendly
affirmative action
6. Building the
knowledge base
and infrastructure
7. Enhancing the sources of growth
8. Ensuring
sustainability of
growth
Strategic reform
initiatives
(SRIs)-Part 1
PEMANDU
1. Crime
2. Education
3. Corruption
4. Low Income
Households
5. Urban Public
Transport
6. Rural Basic
Infrastructure
National Key Result Areas(NKRAs)
CHAPTER 2: BUILDING ON STRENGTHS OF THE PAST
2010
RM552.1 bn
-99.1%
109.9%
11.8%10.2%13.4% 53.6%
6% p.a.
2015
RM740.3 bn
-111.6%
116.0%
11.2%13.9%12.6%58.0%
GDP growth
Share to GDP by contribution
7.7
4.8
12.8
5.0
7.2
8.6
Exports
Imports
Public Consumption
Private Consumption
Public Investment
Private Investment
SOURCE: Economic Planning Unit
Private Investment9th MP ~ RM 71.2 billion per annum10th MP ~ RM 115.3 billion per annum
Growth (%) per annum, 2011-2015
Overall 6.0
7 Core Strategies to economic reform
•Creating a private sector-led economy
1
•Supporting innovation-led growth
2
• Rationalising the role of government in business 3
• Developing SMEs as an engine of growth and innovation
4
•Competing globally 5
• Putting in place the infrastructure for growth
6
•Focusing on key engines of growth
7
▪ Modernise business regulation and liberalise the services sector
▪ Remove market distortions by rationalising subsidies
▪ Introduce Competition Law to govern all firms and improve interface between government and business
The challenge: to move from an economy that competes on low cost and natural resources, to one driven by productivity and innovation
Macroeconomic Strategies: GDP growth to be driven by private investment
5
2-year Rolling Plan1st Rolling Plan
2011 - 2012
Tabled in Mid 20106 months earlier from
plan cycle
Value ManagementProject planning and
implementation
Logical Framework & Project Cycle Management
Complement the rolling plan concept
New Approaches in Development Planning…
6
Identify 85
initiatives in
10MP
Prioritise
initiatives
Categories
initiativesDevelop implementation
plan
• Lead ministry/agency required to
complete templates and submit to EPU
• Input from relevant ministries / agencies
to be incorporated into implementation
plan
Chapter
3
Chapter
4
Chapter
5
Chapter
6
Chapter
7
24 initiatives
14 initiatives
10 initiatives
23 initiatives
14 initiatives
EPU-supported:
11 initiatives
Centrally-
guided:
32 initiatives
Ministry-led:
42 initiatives
Prioritise initiatives
based on:
• Criticality of
initiative to the
nation's development
• Complexity of the
implementation of
initiative
Summarise all
initiatives in 10MP
by chapter
Initiatives prioritised
and bucketed into
3 categories
Prioritisation of
initiatives by
chapter
10275442-01-Presentation to NPDC 10Aug2010-JL-Draft-v4-RR.ppt
Implementation plan—Talent Corporation (I)Capture existing projects and detail areas not covered by existing plans
Define roles and
responsibilities of the
Talent Corporation
Define organization
structure and key
positions
Prime Minister's
Department
Prime Minister's
Department
Dec 2010
Feb 2011
Define the mission, vision and
strategic goals of the Talent
Corporation
Define the specific role of the
Talent Corporation in public sector
enablement and private sector
development support
Design the organization structure
and define the role mandates and
KPIs for key positions
OwnerOwnerTarget
date
Target
date Action planAction planMilestoneMilestoneExpected
outcomes
Expected
outcomes
Operating
model of the
Talent
Corporation
defined
Organization
structure, key
positions, and
KPIs defined
SAMPLE
Captured in existing plans Plan owners
PMO
BackupIllustrative – For discussion only2
PMO
1. Set initiative
milestones
2. Highlight responsible
owner
4. Develop detailed
action plans
3. Agree on target
deadlines
5. Determine
target outcomes
–
+
– +
Completed by
project team1
Templates for lead
ministry/agency to fill2Alignment
with lead
ministry/
agency3
1
2
3
4
5
22
21
20
19
18
1716
15
1413
12
11
10
98
7
5
6
5
4
3
2
1
24
23
4321
–
–
7
Development of the 10MP Implementation Plan & Templates
7
10th Malaysia Plan Target Q1 2011 Status
Target for 2011
GDP Growth : 5.0 – 6.0 % 4.6%
GNI per capita : RM 28,175 (US 9,204)
RM27,780 (US$9,101)
Private Investment : RM87 billion RM 28 billion
Current Account (BOP) : 12.5% of GNI
15.3%
Inflation (CPI) : 2.5% - 3.5% 2.8%
Unemployment Rate : 3.2% 3.1%
Economic Performance
Source : Economic Planning Unit
8
Increasing Energy
Demand
EE Initiatives
New Energy Sources
Declining Energy
Reserves
2019
Energy
Demand-Supply Gap
2025Year
Net
Exporter
Net
Importer
Energy demand is projected to increase from 2,000 PJ in 2009 to 4,013 PJ in 2030 Average rate of 3.6% p.a.
Energy Demand-Supply Balance
Energy Pricing
Energy Supply
Energy Efficiency
Governance Change Management
FIVE PILLARS
The New Energy Policy addresses economic efficiency, security of supply & social and environmental objectives
11
Gas Price Revision
Initiative 3 under the 10th MP
Removing Market Distortions
by Rationalising Subsidies
12
Similar Initiative – 10MP & New Economic Model
13
Revision of gas prices for power and non-power sectors effective 1 June 2011
Increase in gas price by RM3/MMBtu every 6 months
Effectively gas price on average is still subsidisedby almost 70%
Market price by 2016
Resource Allocation
Energy Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Environment
Entrance of New Players
Energy PricingEnergy Pricing
Energy Pricing
Itemising subsidy in consumers’ bill
Educate consumers
De-link subsidy from energy use
End goal is to remove subsidy
Decoupling Approach for Market Pricing
14
Restricted tender for new power plants in brown fields
Establishment of MyPower
Liberalisation of gas supply
Enhancing roles and functions of regulators
Governance
15
SAVE programme - rebate for selected energy efficient electrical appliances
Formulation of Energy Efficiency Masterplan
Energy Labeling and Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS)
Green Building Index (GBI)
Energy Efficiency
17
• Regasification Terminal in Malacca to operate by August 2012
• Regasification Terminal in Lahad Datu to operate by 2015
• Tanjung Pengerang, Johor to operate by 2016
LNG Regasification Terminals
• RAPID to operate by 2016
Refinery and Petrochemical Development
Supply Side Initiatives : Oil & Gas Development
19
• 300MW Kimanis Power Plant to be commissioned by 2013
• 100MW SPR Power Plant (Kimanis) to be commissioned by 2013
• 300 MW Lahat Datu to be commissioned by 2016
Gas Plants
• 1000MW Janamanjung to be commissioned by 2015
• 1000MW Coal Plant to be commissioned by 2016
Coal Plants – Ultra Super Critical Technology
• Bakun 2400MW [to be commissioned by August 2011 for 300MW]
• Ulu Terengganu 250MW to be commissioned by 2016
• Ulu Jelai 372 MW to be commissioned by 2017
Hydro Plants
Supply Side Initiatives : Generation Capacity
20
• Peninsular Malaysia network expansion (allocation of RM4-5 billion annually by TNB)
• Sabah Transmission line expanded by 93km in 2012
• To maintain the System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) in Sabah at 700 minutes/customer- RM200 mil. allocated for 2011
Transmission & Distribution
• 66,000 rural homes will have access to electricity by 2012
• Electricity coverage by 2012 :-
• Peninsular 99.9 %
• Sabah & Sarawak 95 %
Rural Electrification Projects
Supply Side Initiatives : Electricity Coverage
21
• Biomass, biogas, mini hydro, solar and solid waste
Renewable Energy
• 985MW or 5.5% of generation mix by 2015
• RE Act 2011 passed in April 2011
• Sustainable Energy Development Authority (SEDA) to be established by September 2011
• Feed-in-Tariff (FiT) – 1% of consumers’ monthly bill beginning September 2011
Target of RE in the Energy Mix
Supply Side Initiatives : Renewable Energy
22
• Government Agencies used B5 since February 2009
• B5 Programme to be implemented in Central Region of Peninsular Malaysia by 1st November 2011
B5 Programme (Blended bio-fuel 5%)
• RM 1.5 billion incentive for 10 MP
Green Technology Financing Scheme (GTFS)
• Projects include biomass, biogas and landfill projects
• Certified Emission Reduction issued to 10 companies totaling to 1,231,655 tonne of CO2 equivalent
Clean Development Mechanism
Other Initiatives : Renewable Energy
23
24
Policy Direction under 10th Malaysia Plan
The New Energy Policy
Key Energy Projects
Way Forward
Outline of Presentation
Efficient use of energy
Diversified & responsive energy supply
Efficient resource allocation
High value economic development
Vision for the Future
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