energy policy & led -- gz led forum jun 2010
DESCRIPTION
Presentation and panel discussion from 2010 LED Forum, Guangzhou, China, June 2010TRANSCRIPT
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 3
Outline
• Introduction• U.S. Energy policies/organizations
– EISA 2007– U.S. Department of Energy Programs– U.S. EPA Energy Star– NGO Programs– Government & NGO Rebates
• Impact & Strategies• Summary
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 4
Lighting Used To Be A Lot Easier…
• Used a lot of energy, but…– Color was perfect,
never changed– CRI was perfect,
nobody ever questioned it
– Price was very low– When it burned out,
you threw it away…
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 5
Then Things Began To Get Complicated…
• Saved some energy, but…– First CFLs
(1990’s) had poor color…
– …buzzed– …flickered– …did not start
instantly– …would not dim– Cost >10x
standard– Contained >5mg
of mercury
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 6
LEDs to the Rescue?
Poor Quality LEDs
Poor Optical Control Poor Thermal Design
Poor Application
Poor Implementation
What Where They Thinking…?
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 7
LED Marketing…
Cree MR16 volume in 2009: 0
Cree does not even
make MR16 lamps!!!
240 lm
150 lm
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 8
More LED Marketing…
Description This is one of our brightest MR16 LED available today. It is 1x MR16 bulb with 3 x 1 watt CREE LED that can fit your 12 volt halogen fixture. LED bulbs are compatible with all types of magnetic transformers but not all electronic transformers. Many electronic transformers require a minimum load which is greater than that provided by LED bulbs. LED bulbs will usually not work properly (no light output, flickering, and strobing) in fixtures that have integral electronic transformers in each fixture. We recommend changing the power LED power supply which can be purchase in our website. In addition, many standard Track Light power supplies will produce voltages as high as 16 with little or no load (LED bulbs provide little load). You must make sure that the voltage of your existing power supply does not exceed 14 Volts with the LED bulbs installed. This bulb has a frosted lens so it evenly disperses the light, so there are no "hot spots" in the light pattern. Why LED? Last up to 100,000 hours (or about ten years) Withstand shocks, vibrations, frequent switching and temperature extremes that rapidly incapacitate fragile incandescent lamps Reduction of maintenance costs Decrease of electric costs by up to 90% Low heat generation Variety of colors available Wide range of voltage applications Unlike Fluorescents, LED lights are compatible with all dimmers and FET switches like XXX and XXXX Bulb Type: MR16 3 x 1 Watt CREE LED Life time: 20,000 Hours Color: White (6000K) View Angle: 38 Deg Light output: 240 Lumen Operating Voltage: 12 V AC / DC Consumption: 3.4 Watt Product Diameter: 1.96" or 50 mm Product Length: 1.9" or 48 mm
• Three Year Lamp Warranty • Easy Installation Using Existing Socket • LED Operating Life: 50,000+ hrs (5.7+ years) • Solid-State, Fast Turn On, No Power Surge • High Shock / Vibration Resistant • Major Power Savings • Reduces Light Pollution • Voltages Available 12/14V, 24/28V, 120VAC, 240VAC • Major Reduction in Heat Generation • Wide choice of colors & infrared • Moisture resistant
LM-80 is undefined
for 5mm LED lamps!!
LEDs Cure Wrinkles!!
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 9
The Consumer is Confused…
• “…I know this one saves energy, but…– Will I like the color?
– Will my face, food, fabric look natural?
– Will it buzz or flicker like the old ones?
– Is it worth the extra cost?
– Will it hurt my family?
• Are LEDs any better?– How can I know?”
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 10
…And the Consumer is Never Going to Understand the Technology…
Au n-con
n-GaNInGaN MQW
SiMirror
p-GaN
Au-Sn p-con
Bond metal
5000K
4000K
3000K
WA
WB
WC
WD
WJ
WE
WF
WG
WH
WK
WM
WN
WP
5700K
7000K
8300K
6350K
10000K
3500K
2700K
4500K
3A
3B
3C
3D4A
4B
4C
4D
5A
5B
5C
5D
6C
6D
6A
6B
7C
7D7A
7B
8C
8D8A
8B
0.27
0.28
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.45
0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.48 0.49
CCx
CCy
BBL
Cool White
Neutral White
Warm White
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 11
The U.S. Government is Here to Help: EISA 2007
• Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007–Eliminates the manufacture of >150W to <500W probe-start metal halide magnetic ballasted fixtures starting in 2009
–Severely restricts the manufactureor import of most common general-service incandescent lamps beginning 2012 (exemptions apply), and
–Establishes incentivesto develop an LED product that can replace the 60W incandescent
These Power Utilities Will Support L-Prize
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 12
U.S. Department of Energy Programs
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 13
Original U.S. EPA Energy Star Program
• Household appliances
• Computer systems, servers
• Exclusively focused on energy savings
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 14
Energy Star for Integral Lamps
• Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)• Minimum lumens: Varies by thermally
stabilized “wattage equivalent”
• Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0
• Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours
• CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K• Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008• Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W• Intensity distribution:
– Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°
• Dimming NOT required (very desired)• Must provide:
– IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report
– IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used
• Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label
• Warranty: 3-years
Wattage Equivalent Lumens
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 15
NGOs Helping Also…
• Education• Product
screening/recommendation
• Market development
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 16
Government & Power Company Rebates
• Utilities, Power Agencies and State Wide Programs
• Rebates can range from $15 per fixture to $50 per fixture
• Requirements by the state utility commissions to reduce peak demand and consumption in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors
• PGE, PECO, First Energy, Efficiency Vermont, Clean Energy NJ, NYSERDA , etc.
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 17
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #1
1. Drive Performance and Cost Roadmaps
US Department of Energy 2010 Multi-Year Plan for SSL
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Cree Performance RoadmapC
W L
um
en
s/w
att
CFL
LED
Fluorescent
HIDHigh Volume Production
161 LPW
131 LPW 3 yrs
R&D Capability
186 LPW
208 LPW
Incandescent
XR-E
XR-E
XP-E
XP-G
Theoretical maximum for LED
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 19
XLamp® XM-L LED
• Revolutionary flux & efficacy:– Up to 160 lm, 160 LPW @ 350 mA– Up to 750 lm, 110 LPW @ 2A– Typical Targets : 145 lm @350mA ; 675
lm @2A
• Proven design similar to XP:– Lighting-Class, small optical source
size– ~2ºC/W RTH, isolated thermal pad
– Vf= ~2.9 @ 350mA
• Timeline:– June 2010: Engineering samples,
Preliminary Datasheet, Optical Model– Late 3Q 2010: Commercial availability
5.0 mm
5.0 mm
XLamp XM-
L
XLamp XP-
E
XM-L
XP-G
XP-E
XM-L
XP-G
XP-E
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Volume $/lumen
XLamp Cost Trend
XR-E 80 lumens
XP-G 130 lumens
XR-E 100 lumens
Normalized $/lumen over 4 years
• >88% reduction in $/lumen (65% LPW improvement)
• 100’s of Millions of XLamp power die
• Driven by brightness, package and process improvements &
volume
Standard 6000K Cool White Benchmark
XR 7090 59 lumens
XP-E 110 lumens
XP-E 120 lumens
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 21
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #2
2. Drive Quality• Minimum efficacy: 50/55 LPW (<10W/≥10W)• Minimum lumens: Varies by thermally
stabilized “wattage equivalent”
• Minimum CRI: 75, R9 > 0
• Lumen Maintenance (L70): 25,000 hours
• CCT: 2700 K, 3000 K, 3500 K, or 4000 K• Duv tolerances: per ANSI C78.377-2008• Power Factor: >0.7 for lamps ≥5W• Intensity distribution:
– Less than 80% of total flux in the 0° to 60° zone and at least 20% of total flux above 90°
• Dimming NOT required (very desired)• Must provide:
– IES LM-79-2008, sec 10 goniophotometer report
– IES LM-80-2008 report on LEDs used
• Restrictions on “product equivalency” marketing claims, must use “Lighting Facts” label
• Warranty: 3-years
Wattage Equivalent Lumens
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 22
3. Drive Standards
IES-LM-80-08 IES-LM-79-08 ANSI C78.377-2008
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #3
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 23
Impact on Binning…
2010
2007
2009
2006
ANSI C78.377-2008 3000K Quadrangle
Prediction
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 24
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #4
4. Drive Break-through Product Developments
• LED Component for LRP-38 Lamp
• EZBright Chip Platform• EZBright chips used in the XLamp component family
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 25
5. Education and Purchasing Behavior
ENERGY STAR SSL Quality Advocates:
ENERGY STAR Partners:
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #5
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 26
Impact of Energy Programs on LED Business – #6
6. Market Acceleration
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
$3.5
$4.0
$4.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2007 Lighting Forecast*
2008 Lighting Forecast*
2009 Lighting Forecast*
2010 Lighting Forecast*
Global High Brightness LED for General Illumination Market
$US
D,
Bil
lio
ns
* Strategies Unlimited
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Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc. pg. 27
Summary
• U.S. Government and non-government energy programs have had a very positive impact on the Solid State Lighting market
• Specifically, these programs have helped drive:– …Performance and cost roadmaps
– …Awareness and necessity for quality in SSL
– …Standards creation and implementation
– …Break-through product developments
– …Education and shaping of purchase behaviors
• The result has been measureable market acceleration, andReal Energy avings
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pg. 28Copyright © 2010 Cree, Inc.