Energy policy after the General Election:

Priorities for consumers

Antonia Dickman, Joint Head of Environment Research, Ipsos MORI

02/03/2015

Government and industry face significant challenges

Low carbon

economy

Energy

security

Climate

change

mitigation

Affordable

supply

Competitive,

transparent

energy

industry

What I’ll cover today

What do the public think?

• Concerns?

• Priorities?

•What does this mean for

policymakers?

• Priorities going forwards?

• Messaging?

Base: 513 British adults 18+, 5th – 7th April 2014

Source: Ipsos MORI / Political Monitor

…agree there is currently ‘a

cost of living crisis’ in the

UK (82%)

Affordability:

…are concerned about their

household energy bills (84%)

Source: Ipsos MORI / DECC

Base: GB adults aged 18+ who are at least partly responsible for paying household

energy bills: (2,159) 5th and 20th October 2012

Four in five …

Public supported price freeze following announcement

I am going to read out a number of policies announced by political parties. Which two or three, if any, of the

following do you think would be…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 12th -15th October 2013, split sample question- approximately half (c.500) the

sample were asked each iteration

33%

33%

41%

44%

44%

50%

22%

23%

29%

40%

56%

62%

25 hours of free childcare per week

A government scheme to guarantee mortgages for peoplebuying a home with a deposit between 5% and 20%

Free school meals for all children aged under eight

Raising the income tax threshold so that no-one earning theminimum wage pays income tax

A freeze on petrol duty for the next 18 months

A freeze on gas and electricity prices for 20 months

…best for me personally …best for the country

Competitive & transparent industry?

Source: DECC/ Energy UK Base: 2,021 British adults aged 18+ at least partly responsible for paying household energy bills, August/September 2014

% trusting their supplier to…

…provide them with value for money – 45%

… be open and transparent – 50%

MPs trust industry less in some areas too

2

1

45

47

15

10

3

1

15

25

32

57

59

58

4

3

4

16

21

28

Trust completely Tend to distrust Tend to trust Distrust completely

Q Could you please tell me the extent to which you trust or distrust energy

companies in general to do each of the following:

Base: All MPs (93), Conservative MPs (38), Labour MPs (44)

and Liberal Democrat MPs (8) asked, summer 2012

Keep the lights on in Britain, now & in

the future

Protect poor & vulnerable from high

energy prices

Move as quickly as possible towards

lower carbon generation methods

Offer genuine competition

Promote energy efficiency & insulation

Provide clear information so customers

can choose between suppliers

Energy security: a significant public concern

Base:1,822 British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January-26 March 2010

Supplies of fossil fuels (e.g.

coal and gas) will run out

The UK will become too

dependent on energy from

other countries

% Concerned that in the future…

Source: Ipsos MORI / Cardiff University

78%

81%

5856

505050

4239

3636

3535

3330

282727

252323

1912

87

4

SwedenGermany

Great BritainJapan

USASouth Korea

AustraliaSouth Africa

SpainBelgium

ItalyCanadaPolandFranceChina

TurkeyHungary

ArgentinaIndonesia

Saudi ArabiaIndia

MexicoRussia

Brazil

Base: Between 500-1010 respondents per country, February 2 - 14 2011

What are the three most important environmental issues in your country?

% Future energy sources and supplies

Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor

Brits care more than most about energy security

Public recognise energy use contributes to climate

change

Base:1,040 UK adults, 2014

Burning coal, oil & gas in

power stations to produce

electricity

% in UK thinking that each activity contributes to climate change a lot / moderate amount…

Source: Ipsos MORI / Chatham House

85% Industry & manufacturing

e.g. production of goods

80%

87%

Heating & cooling our homes

and offices

Although concern about climate change has been

falling … (until the 2013/14 floods)

82% concerned 60% concerned 71% concerned

2005 2010 2013

Base: 2014: 1,002 British adults, 28th August – 31st October 2013: 973 Great British adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th

March 2013; 2010: 1,822 Great British adults, aged 15 and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010; 2005: 1,491 Great

British adults, aged 15 and over, 1st October – 6th November 2005. Methodology: face-to-face in-home

Source: Ipsos MORI/Cardiff University

68% concerned

2014

How accepting are public of policies aiming to meet

goals of security of supply, affordability & climate

change mitigation?

Renewables favoured over fossil fuels, though support

shows signs of decline

33%

34%

34%

49%

59%

64%

72%

77%

36%

33%

34%

57%

56%

82%

76%

88%

2013 2010

Solar

Hydro

Wind

Gas

Biomass

Nuclear

Oil

Coal

Bases: 2013: 973 British adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013; 2010: 1,822 British adults, aged 15

and over, 6th January - 26th March 2010

% Very/fairly favourable

Source: Ipsos MORI / Cardiff University

Support for tax increases to pay for more renewable

energy

9%

30%

18%

22%

17%

3%

Don’t know Strongly support

Tend to support

Neither support nor oppose

Tend to oppose

Strongly oppose

40%

support

39%

oppose

Source: Ipsos MORI / Cardiff University Base: 1,002 British adults, 28th August – 31st October 2014

On balance public likely to support replacing our nuclear power

stations, but some work to be done to convince more

42%

support 33%

oppose

55% agree “if we

had safer nuclear

power stations, I’d

be prepared to

support new ones

being built”

Q. To what extent do you support or oppose the

building of new nuclear power stations in Britain to

replace those being phased out over the next few

years? This would ensure that the previous

proportion of nuclear energy is retained.

Base: 973 British adults, aged 15 and over, 8th - 26th March 2013 Source: Ipsos MORI / Cardiff University

How willing are public to act themselves?

“Mainly responsible for ensuring appropriate changes are made to UK energy

system over next 40 years”

Responsibility firmly placed on Government

Source: Energy Systems, Ipsos MORI / Cardiff University/UKERC, 2013

Base: 2,441 British adults, aged 15 and over, 2nd-12th August 2012

54%

I think there is more I could do to

reduce the amount of energy I

use at home

I have tried to reduce the amount

of energy I use at home

59%

74%

We do have aspirations to reduce our energy use

Source: DECC / Ipsos MORI Base: 2,210 British adults aged 18+ at least partly responsible for paying household energy bills, 5th April – 2nd May 2013

3rd statement: Base: 1,002 British adults, 28th August – 31st October 2014

Likely to buy more energy

efficient appliances 84%

Source: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI

Smart meters expected to help households budget &

avoid wasted energy use

Source: DECC/ Ipsos MORI Base: 2,210 British adults aged 18+ at least partly responsible for paying household energy bills, 5th April – 2nd May 2013

What, if anything, do you think you would benefit from if you had a smart meter

installed in your home? (spontaneous)

…automatically

turning off if left on

standby for long

time

…turning off after set

period of time (e.g. 10

mins)

…switched off by

electricity network

operator for short

periods of time

But concerns about getting too “smart”

% Acceptable % Unacceptable

Source: Cardiff University / Ipsos MORI

Base: 2,441 British adults, aged 15 and over, 2nd-12th August 2012

Gas is still the default option for heating our homes

If you were going to replace your current heating system, what types of heating

system would you consider to heat both your home and hot water?

Base: All GB homeowners aged 18+ who do not currently heat their home mainly using a GSHP,

ASHP, biomass boiler or heat network (2,848), 28th August to 14th October 2012 Source: More Efficient Heating Study, Ipsos MORI / DECC, 2013

3%

81% 3%

22

With many consumers unaware of lower carbon options

14%

17%

53%

53%

68%

69%

73%

Gas Condensing Boiler

Solar thermal

Ground Source Heat Pump

Biomass boiler

Air Source Heat Pump

Heat network

Micro-CHP

Source: Ipsos MORI/DECC More Efficient Heating Study, 28th August to 14th Oct 2012

Base: All GB homeowners aged 18+ (2,900)

% Never heard of

Which of the following best describes the extent to which you had heard of

each of these ways of heating your home and/or hot water before today?

Challenges for

policymakers

41

34

30

20

18

16

15

13

12

11

Base: 966 British adults 18+, 6th – 15th February 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Energy competing against many other issues

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Top mentions %

Immigration/Immigrants

Economy

Defence/Foreign affairs/Terrorism

Unemployment

NHS

Education/schools

Low pay/minimum wages/fair pay

Poverty/inequality

Housing

Crime/Law and Order/ASB

% Environment – 5%

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Concern about the environment similar now compared to before 2010 election

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

0

5

10

15

20

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Cameron’s “Vote

Blue, go Green”

campaign at 2006

local elections

Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic

cloud reaches northern Spain

Wettest Autumn since records began –

widespread flooding across the UK

EC proposes carbon

emission cuts of 20%

by 2020

Stern

Review on

climate

change

Cameron becomes

PM

Flooding

in England

How much, if anything, have you heard or read about the following energy technologies?

Base: 428 UK adults aged 16+

Energy is an issue people are hearing about…

95

77

55

Source: Ipsos MORI Public Attitudes to Science

To what extent do you support or oppose the development of the following energy technologies in the UK?

…but that doesn’t always lead to favourable opinions

11

7

34

76

51

36

Base: 428 UK adults aged 16+ Source: Ipsos MORI Public Attitudes to Science

What would you say are the main benefits/risks, if any, of fracking to extract shale gas?

Base: 315 adults who have heard of fracking to extract shale gas N.B. word clouds are illustrative of data, not statistically representative; only codes registering 2% or more are shown

Depends on messages getting through

Source: Ipsos MORI Public Attitudes to Science

29

90%

86%

83%

67%

62%

55%

51%

32%

22%

19%

16%

8%

11%

14%

27%

30%

38%

37%

62%

72%

76%

80%

2%

3%

4%

6%

8%

7%

14%

6%

6%

5%

4%

Doctors

Teachers

Scientists

TV newsreaders

Man/woman in the street

Civil servants

Pollsters

Business leaders

Journalists

Government ministers

Politicians generally

Tell the truth Not tell the truth Don't know

And who is delivering the message

Source: Ipsos MORI Veracity Index, December 2014

Base: All GB adults aged 15+ (1,166),

Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally

trust them to tell the truth or not?

Public would like our future energy system to involve…

• A secure supply – with mix likely to include renewables & nuclear

• An affordable supply & fair pricing from suppliers

But significant challenges remain…

• Responsibility firmly placed on Government

• Concerns around impact of cost of changes on households

• Mixed picture on opinions of different energy sources

• Opinions greatly influenced by message and messenger

Some clear preferences, but also some challenges

Version 1 | Public

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Antonia Dickman, Joint Head of Environment Research, Ipsos MORI

020 7347 3157; antonia.dickman@ipsos.com

2nd March 2015

Energy policy after the General Election:

Priorities for consumers