energy opportunities richard bixler may 2010 http:// quantitative management work smart

ENERGY OPPORTUNITIESRICHARD BIXLERMAY 2010

HTTP://WWW.SOFTTOYSSOFTWARE.COM/

Quantitative Managementwork smart

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Energy Summary – 1/3

©2009 Richard M. Bixler. All rights reserved.

World Consumption US, China, EU are the big, industrial, users. Primary energy sources 99% of use.

Industrialized Energy Use: 3 Main Paths Petroleum: 80% Transport. Chemical feedstock. Nat Gas: Ubiquitous heating. Chemical feedstock. Electrical: 90% of coal = 50% of electricity.

Nuclear and Nat Gas follow distantly. Electricity and Transportation thermodynamic

limits magnify fuel use. Reserves of Primary Energy

Oil/NatGas: Middle East. Coal: North America, Asia Pac, EU. Declining oil discovery rate. Least expensive reserves used first.

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Energy use is correlated with GDP Population with low GDP is poverty Poplation with GDP takes energy and

credit GDP contains trade, benefits all

Comparison of similar GDPs US and EU similar size, construction China population 4x US, 3x EU China energy use high for GDP

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World Consumption Outlook Industrialized countries (US, EU) flat. China, India, ROW 5% growth. Coal growth

even faster. Population growth drives economies

increasing energy use. Energy Return: EROEI

Carbon fuels have highest EROEI by far. Relentless decline in EROEI: Higher cost

reserves,lower return from alternative energy sources.

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Expect energy usage to double by 2050 based on GDP and population growth.

Oil is the international commodity. Coal, NG, Nuke, Hydro are all produced domestically.

Oil price likely to be driven up by International competition (production + replenishment + growth). Increasing cost of reserves. 7 billion people now; going to 9 billion by 2050, all growth outside

US+EU. Nationalized production and reserves will prioritize their national

ends. Political instabilities and hostilities in oil-producing regions. Financial Trading. Market-anticipation, or actual, production peak.

The major mitigating factor would be expectation of economic downturn

Timeframe? TBD...

Oil drives transport. Transport drives agriculture and trade.

Economic Driver will be Oil

Opportunities Based On Thesis: Oil will be the economic driverReduce dependence on oil for transport.Shift transport fuel to alternate carbon fuels and to electricity, increase grid. Numerous companies listed on softtoyssoftware.com for each area

listed Transport Fuel (mostly outside SV)

Biomass to liquid (particularly, syndiesel from coal) (Sasol) Nat Gas (CLNE, automakers, FSYS et al) Prove NPV and ensure EROI, EROEI

Source-to-use: creation, distribution, vehicle use. Engine development

Electric Transport Companies working on EV, PHEV et al (automakers, battery companies) Battery capacity (range), charge management, cost, materials, standards for

capacity, connectors, form factor (A123, ENER, Firefly, Imara, Johnson, Porous)

Vehicles: Tesla, Better Place (Renault), Automakers, Smith Electric Vehicle, specialty vehicles

Battery financial instruments Private charge facility, DC microgrid, battery charge, distribution from rural

to urban, battery change equipment, battery change concession, battery change vehicles, finance.

http://www.softtoyssoftware.com/

http://www.betterplace.com/

http://www.cleanenergyfuels.com/

Opportunities Based On Thesis: Oil will be the economic driverReduce dependence on oil for transport.Shift transport fuel to alternate carbon fuels and to electricity, increase grid.

Solar (grid and local electricity generation) PV cost reduction: multijunction, organic, thin film Module architecture, efficiency, management (SolarMagic) 23 companies listed on website: Thin film, Concentrated, Tower,

Inverters, Cladding, Cylindrical, Plants, Panels Smart Grid (electricity distribution)

Industrial power control: Echelon Residential management equipment and service Host software: See IBM table: call mgmt, load control, market

analysis, billing, DMC, CIS, EMS, Outage, … 12 companies listed on website: meters, controls, networking,

software Industrial charge storage (use of alternative sources on-grid)

Industrial battery, Flywheel, compressed air Brayton, Deeya, ICE, Imara, Premium


http://www.echelon.com/


Fuel Cell (grid and local electricity generation) Realize theoretical thermodynamic efficiency: Bloom Distribution of Nat Gas input vs. distribution of electric output

may drive toward centralized generation Nuclear (grid and local(!) electricity generation)

45-70 new plants by 2030. Design, construction, operation PHWR, multi-fuel: Thorium in particular. Westinghouse, GE, McDermott, Fluor, Shaw, Exelon (other

utilities; Duke et al.) Mini-reactors: Hyperion, TerraPower.

Coal Electric Plant (grid electricity generation) Coal IGCC (integrated gassification combined cycle) plant CCS (carbon capture and sequestration) Utilities, McDermott, Fluor, Shaw

http://www.bloomenergy.com/

http://www.intellectualventures.com/OurInventions/TerraPower.aspx

http://www.claverton-energy.com/integrated-gasification-combined-cycle-for-carbon-capture-storage.html


Agriculture Electric/synfuel vehicles for utility, tilling, transport. Agricultural productivity increase (chemicals, pesticides?). Increased localization of common agricultural product production.

Trade Alternate fuel transport: synfuel aircraft, increased train (electric

and synfuel), ship use. Increased localization of high-value production.

http://www.alke.com/

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Thank You


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Search Tools I Provide

My website: www.softtoyssoftware.com

Tutorials + links a steppingstone to direction + interviewing knowledge. Primary sources, economics, Renewables,

Smart Grid, Storage, Transmission. Companies identified, located, linked

Company website Yahoo! Finance LinkedIn widget



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Consumption - World

China: 50% of Asia Pac total70% Asia Pac coal

US and Europe similar size, structure


Renewables areAbout 1% of total.

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Usage - US

Steam Turbine thermodynamics: Carnot: 27% efficiencyRankine: 60% w/CCG

AC Optimized grid:Transmission, step, and conversion losses

McKinsey: Large efficiency potential, but diffuse, long time, and may not accrue to spender.

Wind and PV Opportunities vs. Thermodynamics


Petroleum

Coal

NG

Nuclear

Solar

Hydro

WindEnergySources

ElectricityGeneration

EnergyUse7% Refinery Gases

50% Gasoline33% Distillates (Diesel, Jet, Heating)10% Heavy Fuel Oil

Petroleum

Natural Gas

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Reserves

ANWR ~+30%of US oil reserves

Proved: 90% recoveryUnproved: 50%

• “Proved” ≠ “Economic”• Least expensive proved

reserves are recovered first.

Deep GOM Tiber:1 calendar qtr world usageDeep, 250°F, Pressure, $$

Government-controlled companies control 88% of proved oil reserves


Declining discovery rate implies “Peak Oil” hypothesis.

Shale Oil and NG well depletion much faster than conventional

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Consumption and GDP

Consumption correlatesto GDP r=86%, r2=74%to Population r=65%, r2=42%


• Primary energy has much higher leverage than human labor.• Energy cost plus capital

leverage fuel growth.

• GDP drives trade.• Trade benefits both

partners.• (Ricardian model

underlies modern macroeconomics.)• Economic energy efficiency (GDP per BTU) measures how well energy is spent.

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Consumption


27 Countries

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Going Forward: More Energy!

• Economies depend on growing energy supply.• Expect 2x energy use before

2050• Six new Saudi Arabias

needed by 2030

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EROEI Cliff


For each unit of energy returned…spend this

much energy…

give this much energy to the public…

Characterized by EROEI=1/prodcost

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Transport Fuel Migration©2009 Richard M. Bixler. All rights

reserved.

• 330M US people: 250M vehicles incl. 150M Autos.•Must affect a significant number of these vehicles to affect petroleum usage.• They use about 80% of 6.96 QBTU = 5.6 QBTU annually.•Generation capacity US about 12.7 QBTU net (excluding thermodynamic and distribution losses)

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Smartgrid Domains


energy opportunities richard bixler may 2010 http:// quantitative management work smart

Documents

oil drives transport

energy summary

industrialized energy

energy return

fuel use

energy usage

gdp slide

grid industrial battery