energy implications of climate change mitigation … · medellín, colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de...
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Y. Olaya, L. Cadavid, L. Cárdenas, O. Fernández, C.J. Franco and
I. DynerUniversidad Nacional de Colombia
Facultad de Minas
ENERGY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE‐CHANGEMITIGATION STRATEGIES
Austin, November 5 ‐ 7
2012
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Agenda: Low carbon emission strategies
• Low carbon emission (LCE) strategies and global warming
• Sample of countries that have adopted LCE strategies
• Results so far
• What can Colombia learn them?
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Motivations
• Emissions and climate change
• Different sectors involved
• Progress in emission reductions
• Political will involved
• A new industrial revolution in progress?
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Effects of GHGs?...
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http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/vulnerability‐of‐large‐cities‐to‐climate‐hazards_cb5fNieves López Izquierdo, Associate Consultant UNEP/GRID‐Arendal;
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http://www.wri.org/image/view/11185/_original
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More than 20 countries have adopted a climate change strategy since 2005
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What is the strategy seeking?
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Main focus of strategy on energy
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Strategies
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Strategies and progress
• CO2 emissions depend on population and economy growth, as well as on technology
• Institutions and Policy
• Results– Efficiency
– Low Carbon technologies
– New technologies
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Since 1990: emissions growth
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Carbon intensity: 80% of sample drop between 1990 y 2008
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Energy intensity drops in: over 60% of the countries in the sample
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Driven by economic growth
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Goals not easy to meet
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100% Goals on emission reduction
100% Energy efficiency
65% New clean technologies
82% Sustainable land use
Strategy focus
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Policies for each program
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Regulation and incentives
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Efficiency programsLighting
Appliances
Construction and buildings
Vehicles
Biofuels
Efficient engines
Industry
Heating
Cogeneration
Recicling
Efficient boilers
Smart metering
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Transport efficiency
Vehicles fuel use
Characterization
Efficient labeling
Subsidies for renewing vehicles
Investment incentives
Sustainable Infrastructure, mobility and transport
Vehicle design norms
Co2 Taxes
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Promotion of new technologies
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Incumbent technologies maintain dominance
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Progress of renewables: wind and biomass
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Technology development phases
Risk+
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Barriers to low carbon technologies
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Success depends on:
• Program duration
• Continuity
• Scale
• Simultaneous promotion supply/demand
• Industrial participation
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Fuente de los datos: UNEP / EPO / ICTSD, Patents and Clean Energy: Bridging the Gap Between Evidence and Policy, Septiembre 2010.
Renewables ‐ Patents have increase since1997
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Program started
R&D Impact: Renewables LCT
Dinamarca
Holanda
E.E.U.U
China
India, México
1970 o anterior
1980 1990 2000 2010
Brasil
Alemania
G.B
Japón
Corea del Sur
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Lessons for Colombia
• The new strategy for Colombia has to set global goals on emissions, and also by sectors:– Transport, electricity, end‐users, and land use
• Institutions and ministerial policy
• Energy:– Transport: renewables and efficient transport
– Electricity: FIT and portfolio standards
– Efficiency standards for end users.
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Conclusions
• Focus on electricity (largest CO2 emitter).
• Efficiency program attain good cost/benefit ratios to industry and consumers
• Prices of renewables have come down, but:– More R&D is required
– More incentives are required
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Economías bajas en carbono: aspectos técnicos, políticos y económicos
Medellín, Colombia. 15 y 16 de marzo de 2012
Conclusions
• Industry has to participate in commercial stages
• Continuity is required in R&D programs
• In Colombia– Need of strategy
– Opportunities for renewables
– Efficiency potential in appliances, transport and buildings